scholarly journals The longest homogeneous series of grape harvest dates, Beaune 1354–2018, and its significance for the understanding of past and present climate

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Labbé ◽  
Christian Pfister ◽  
Stefan Brönnimann ◽  
Daniel Rousseau ◽  
Jörg Franke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Temperature Series ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Central European ◽  
Phenological Data ◽  
Long Period ◽  
The Past ◽  
Harvest Dates ◽  
July Temperature ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. Records of grape harvest dates (GHD) are the oldest and the longest continuous phenological data in Europe. However, many available series including the well-known (Dijon) Burgundy series are error prone, because scholars so far uncritically drew the data from nineteenth century publications instead of going back to the archives. The GHD from the famous vine region of Beaune (Burgundy) were entirely drawn from the archives, critically cross checked with narrative evidence and calibrated with the long Paris temperature series comprising the 360 years from 1659 to 2018. The 664-year-long Beaune series from 1354 to 2018 is also significantly correlated with tree-ring and documentary proxy evidence as well as with the Central European temperature series (from 1500). The series is clearly subdivided into two parts. From 1354 to 1987 grapes were on average picked from 28 September on, whereby during the last 31 year long period of rapid Global Warming from 1988 to 2018 harvests began 13 days earlier. In the Paris temperature measurements since 1659, April-to-July temperature reached the highest value ever in 2018. The 33 extremely warm events comprising the 5 % percentile bracket of GHD are unevenly distributed over time. 21 of them occurred between 1393 and 1719, whereby this is the case for just five years between 1720 and 2002. Since the hot summer 2003 8 out of 16 spring-summer periods were outstanding according the statistic of the last 664 years, no less than 5 among them within the last 8 years. In sum, the 664-year-long Beaune GHD series demonstrates that outstanding hot and dry years in the past were outliers, whereby they became the norm since the transition to rapid Global Warming in 1988.

scholarly journals The longest homogeneous series of grape harvest dates, Beaune 1354–2018, and its significance for the understanding of past and present climate

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1485-1501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Labbé ◽  
Christian Pfister ◽  
Stefan Brönnimann ◽  
Daniel Rousseau ◽  
Jörg Franke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Series ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Central European ◽  
Phenological Data ◽  
Long Period ◽  
The Past ◽  
Harvest Dates ◽  
Early Harvest ◽  
July Temperature

Abstract. Records of grape harvest dates (GHDs) are the oldest and the longest continuous phenological data in Europe. However, many available series, including the well-known (Dijon) Burgundy series, are error prone because scholars so far have uncritically drawn the data from 19th century publications instead of going back to the archives. The GHDs from the famous vine region of Beaune (Burgundy) were entirely drawn from the archives and critically cross-checked with narrative evidence. In order to reconstruct temperature, the series was calibrated against the long Paris temperature series comprising the 360 years from 1659 to 2018. The 664-year-long Beaune series from 1354 to 2018 is also significantly correlated with tree-ring and documentary proxy evidence as well as with the central European temperature series (from 1500). The series is clearly subdivided into two parts. From 1354 to 1987 grapes were on average picked from 28 September on, whereby during the last 31-year-long period of rapid warming from 1988 to 2018 harvests began 13 d earlier. Early harvest dates are shown to be accompanied by high pressure over western–central Europe and atmospheric blocking over Denmark. The 33 extremely early harvests comprising the fifth percentile bracket of GHDs are unevenly distributed over time; 21 of them occurred between 1393 and 1719, while this is the case for just 5 years between 1720 and 2002. Since the hot summer of 2003, 8 out of 16 spring–summer periods were outstanding according to the statistics of the last 664 years, no less than 5 among them within the last 8 years. In the Paris temperature measurements since 1659, April-to-July temperature reached the highest value ever in 2018. In sum, the 664-year-long Beaune GHD series demonstrates that outstanding hot and dry years in the past were outliers, while they have become the norm since the transition to rapid warming in 1988.

scholarly journals ON A RECENT PRELIMINARY STUDY FOR THE MEASUREMENT OF THE LENSE–THIRRING EFFECT WITH THE GALILEO SATELLITES

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (04) ◽  
pp. 1450028 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. IORIO
Keyword(s):  
Semimajor Axis ◽  
Ocean Tides ◽  
Linear Combinations ◽  
Long Period ◽  
The Past ◽  
Zonal Harmonics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tidal Perturbations ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
Over Time

It has recently been proposed to combine the node drifts of the future constellation of 27 Galileo spacecraft together with those of the existing Laser Geodynamics Satellites (LAGEOS)-type satellites to improve the accuracy of the past and ongoing tests of the Lense–Thirring (LT) effect by removing the bias of a larger number of even zonal harmonics Jℓ than either done or planned so far. Actually, it seems a difficult goal to be achieved realistically for a number of reasons. First, the LT range signature of a Galileo-type satellite is as small as 0.5 mm over three-days arcs, corresponding to a node rate of just [Formula: see text] milliarcseconds per year (mas yr-1). Some tesseral and sectorial ocean tides such as K1 and K2 induce long-period harmonic node perturbations with frequencies which are integer multiples of the extremely slow Galileo's node rate [Formula: see text] completing a full cycle in about 40 yr. Thus, over time spans, T, of some years, they would act as superimposed semisecular aliasing trends. Since the coefficients of the Jℓ-free multisatellite linear combinations are determined only by the semimajor axis a, the eccentricity e and the inclination I, which are nominally equal for all the Galileo satellites, it is not possible to include all of them. Even using only one Galileo spacecraft together with the LAGEOS family would be unfeasible because of the fact that the resulting Galileo coefficient would be ≳ 1, thus enhancing the aliasing impact of the uncancelled nonconservative and tidal perturbations.

scholarly journals April–August temperatures in the Czech Lands, 1499–2015, reconstructed from grape-harvest dates

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1421-1434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Možný ◽  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Petr Dobrovolný ◽  
Miroslav Trnka
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Values ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Central European ◽  
The Past ◽  
Harvest Dates ◽  
Explained Variance ◽  
Czech Lands

Abstract. Viticulture has long been essential to the commercial and social well-being of parts of the Czech Lands (now the Czech Republic), and detailed records have been kept for centuries of the timing and relative success of the grape crop. Using such documentary data from the Bohemian wine-growing region (mainly northwest of the capital, Prague), series of grape-harvest dates (GHDs) were created for the 1499–2015 period. Because the link between harvest dates and temperatures is strong, GHD series, together with instrumental mean temperature series starting in 1801, were used to reconstruct mean April–August temperatures for the region from 1499 to 2015. Linear regression (LR) and variance scaling (VS) methods were used for calibration and compared in terms of explained variance and their ability to capture extreme values. It emerged that LR does not significantly underestimate temperature variability. However, VS shows far greater capacity to capture extremes. GHDs explain 64 % of temperature variability over the full calibration period. The 1986–2015 period was identified as the warmest 30-year period of the past 514 years, an observation consistent with recent global warming. The highest April–August temperatures appeared in a reconstruction for the year 1540, which was warmer than the next two very warm, and far more recent, seasons in 2003 and 2015. The coldest period occurred at the beginning of the 20th century (1900–1929). The series reconstructed for the Czech Lands is in close agreement with other (central) European reconstructions based on other proxies. The series created here makes an important contribution to a better understanding of long-term spatiotemporal temperature variability in central Europe.

The Staging of Large Wastewater Treatment Plants - A “Modular” Approach

1992 ◽  
Vol 25 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 67-73
Author(s):  
H. Fleckseder ◽  
L. Prendl ◽  
H. Meulenbroek
Keyword(s):  
Wastewater Treatment ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
Wastewater Treatment Plants ◽  
Aeration Tank ◽  
Modular Approach ◽  
Central European ◽  
Plant Hydraulics ◽  
The World ◽  
Whole Life Cycle ◽  
Over Time

The primary driving force for re-investments in wastewater treatment plants in Austria - and also other countries in Central Europe - is at present not an increase in load to treatment but a marked increase in effluent requirements to be fulfilled. (The re-investments necessary for sludge handling and treatment remain outside this paper.) Within a period of 20 years, the load specific requirements on aeration tank volume rose five- to tenfold, when Lv = 2.0 kg BOD5/(m3d) was the starting value, and roughly doubled for final clarifiers. In addition, the importance of the application and expansion of primary sedimentation decreased as well. This development over time in Central European countries as well as the need to utilize previous investments as long as possible - 35 to 60 years for civil works are common as periods of depreciation - indicate that investments in new plant at any location in the world have to consider the possible whole life cycle of a plant and that plant hydraulics becomes the “key hook” for expandability.

Denouement: World Politics, Systemic Leadership, and Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. Thompson ◽  
Leila Zakhirova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
World Politics ◽  
First Century ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Agrarian Economy ◽  
Historical Processes

In this final chapter, we conclude by recapitulating our argument and evidence. One goal of this work has been to improve our understanding of the patterns underlying the evolution of world politics over the past one thousand years. How did we get to where we are now? Where and when did the “modern” world begin? How did we shift from a primarily agrarian economy to a primarily industrial one? How did these changes shape world politics? A related goal was to examine more closely the factors that led to the most serious attempts by states to break free of agrarian constraints. We developed an interactive model of the factors that we thought were most likely to be significant. Finally, a third goal was to examine the linkages between the systemic leadership that emerged from these historical processes and the global warming crisis of the twenty-first century. Climate change means that the traditional energy platforms for system leadership—coal, petroleum, and natural gas—have become counterproductive. The ultimate irony is that we thought that the harnessing of carbon fuels made us invulnerable to climate fluctuations, while the exact opposite turns out to be true. The more carbon fuels are consumed, the greater the damage done to the atmosphere. In many respects, the competition for systemic leadership generated this problem. Yet it is unclear whether systemic leadership will be up to the task of resolving it.

Introduction

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Telesca Giuseppe
Keyword(s):  
Structural Analysis ◽  
Institutional Change ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
The Past ◽  
Final Goal ◽  
Social Structural ◽  
Country Analysis ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Over Time

The ambition of this book is to combine different bodies of scholarship that in the past have been interested in (1) providing social/structural analysis of financial elites, (2) measuring their influence, or (3) exploring their degree of persistence/circulation. The final goal of the volume is to investigate the adjustment of financial elites to institutional change, and to assess financial elites’ contribution to institutional change. To reach this goal, the nine chapters of the book introduced here look at financial elites’ role in different European societies and markets over time, and provide historical comparisons and country and cross-country analysis of their adaptation and contribution to the transformation of the national and international regulatory/cultural context in the wake of a crisis or in a longer term perspective.

Newman's Early Roman Catholic Legacy, 1845-1854

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Michael Shea
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Catholic Church ◽  
Roman Catholic ◽  
Roman Catholic Church ◽  
John Henry Newman ◽  
Christian Doctrine ◽  
European Continent ◽  
The Past ◽  
Immaculate Conception ◽  
Over Time

For the past several decades, scholars have stressed that the genius of John Henry Newman remained underappreciated among his Roman Catholic contemporaries, and in order to find the true impact of his work, one must look to the century after his death. This book takes direct aim at that assumption. Examining a host of overlooked evidence from England and the European continent, Newman’s Early Legacy tracks letters, recorded conversations, and obscure and unpublished theological exchanges to show how Newman’s 1845 Essay on the Development of Christian Doctrine influenced a cadre of Catholic teachers, writers, and Church authorities in nineteenth-century Rome. The book explores how these individuals then employed Newman’s theory of development to argue for the definability of the new dogma of the Immaculate Conception of Mary during the years preceding the doctrine’s promulgation in 1854. Through numerous twists and turns, the narrative traces how the theory of development became a factor in determining the very language that the Roman Catholic Church would use in referring to doctrinal change over time. In this way, Newman’s Early Legacy uncovers a key dimension of Newman’s significance in modern religious history.

Introduction

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Downes ◽  
Sally Holloway ◽  
Sarah Randles
Keyword(s):  
Material World ◽  
The Past ◽  
Over Time

This book is about the ways in which humans have been bound affectively to the material world in and over time; how they have made, commissioned, and used objects to facilitate their emotional lives; how they felt about their things; and the ways certain things from the past continue to make people feel today. The temporal and geographical focus of ...

Anti-corruption in History

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Global Media ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Past ◽  
Human Wellbeing ◽  
Modern Period ◽  
Legitimate Power ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Scant Attention ◽  
Over Time

Anticorruption in History is the first major collection of case studies on how past societies and polities, in and beyond Europe, defined legitimate power in terms of fighting corruption and designed specific mechanisms to pursue that agenda. It is a timely book: corruption is widely seen today as a major problem, undermining trust in government, financial institutions, economic efficiency, the principle of equality before the law and human wellbeing in general. Corruption, in short, is a major hurdle on the “path to Denmark”—a feted blueprint for stable and successful statebuilding. The resonance of this view explains why efforts to promote anticorruption policies have proliferated in recent years. But while the subjects of corruption and anticorruption have captured the attention of politicians, scholars, NGOs and the global media, scant attention has been paid to the link between corruption and the change of anticorruption policies over time and place. Such a historical approach could help explain major moments of change in the past as well as reasons for the success and failure of specific anticorruption policies and their relation to a country’s image (of itself or as construed from outside) as being more or less corrupt. It is precisely this scholarly lacuna that the present volume intends to begin to fill. A wide range of historical contexts are addressed, ranging from the ancient to the modern period, with specific insights for policy makers offered throughout.

scholarly journals d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masayoshi Ishii ◽  
Nobuhito Mori
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Climate Simulations

Abstract A large-ensemble climate simulation database, which is known as the database for policy decision-making for future climate changes (d4PDF), was designed for climate change risk assessments. Since the completion of the first set of climate simulations in 2015, the database has been growing continuously. It contains the results of ensemble simulations conducted over a total of thousands years respectively for past and future climates using high-resolution global (60 km horizontal mesh) and regional (20 km mesh) atmospheric models. Several sets of future climate simulations are available, in which global mean surface air temperatures are forced to be higher by 4 K, 2 K, and 1.5 K relative to preindustrial levels. Nonwarming past climate simulations are incorporated in d4PDF along with the past climate simulations. The total data volume is approximately 2 petabytes. The atmospheric models satisfactorily simulate the past climate in terms of climatology, natural variations, and extreme events such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. In addition, data users can obtain statistically significant changes in mean states or weather and climate extremes of interest between the past and future climates via a simple arithmetic computation without any statistical assumptions. The database is helpful in understanding future changes in climate states and in attributing past climate events to global warming. Impact assessment studies for climate changes have concurrently been performed in various research areas such as natural hazard, hydrology, civil engineering, agriculture, health, and insurance. The database has now become essential for promoting climate and risk assessment studies and for devising climate adaptation policies. Moreover, it has helped in establishing an interdisciplinary research community on global warming across Japan.

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