scholarly journals Causes for increased flood frequency in central Europe in the 19th century

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Brönnimann ◽  
Luca Frigerio ◽  
Mikhaël Schwander ◽  
Marco Rohrer ◽  
Peter Stucki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
19Th Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Weather Types ◽  
Annual Series ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Post War ◽  
The 19Th Century

Abstract. Historians and historical climatologists have long pointed to an increased flood frequency in Central Europe in the mid and late 19th century. However, the causes have remained unclear. Here, we investigate the changes in flood frequency in Switzerland based on long time series of discharge and lake levels, of precipitation and weather types, and based on climate model simulations, focusing on the warm season. Annual series of peak discharge or maximum lake level, in agreement with previous studies, display increased frequency of floods in the mid 19th century and decreased frequency after the Second World War. Annual series of warm-season mean precipitation and high percentiles of 3-day precipitation totals (partly) reflect these changes. A daily weather type classification since 1763 is used to construct flood probability indices for the catchments of the Rhine in Basel and the outflow of Lake Lugano, Ponte Tresa. The indices indicate an increased frequency of flood-prone weather types in the mid 19th century and a decreased frequency in the post-war period, consistent with a climate reconstruction that shows increased (decreased) cyclonic flow over Western Europe in the former (latter) period. To assess the driving factors of the detected circulation changes, we analyse weather types and precipitation in a large ensemble of climate model simulations forced with observed sea-surface temperatures. In the simulations, we do not find an increase in flood-prone weather types in the Rhine catchment in the 19th century, but a decrease in the post-war period related to the sea-surface temperature anomalies.

scholarly journals Causes of increased flood frequency in central Europe in the 19th century

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1395-1409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Brönnimann ◽  
Luca Frigerio ◽  
Mikhaël Schwander ◽  
Marco Rohrer ◽  
Peter Stucki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
19Th Century ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Weather Types ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Annual Series ◽  
Post War ◽  
The 19Th Century

Abstract. Historians and historical climatologists have long pointed to an increased flood frequency in central Europe in the mid- and late 19th century. However, the causes have remained unclear. Here, we investigate the changes in flood frequency in Switzerland based on long time series of discharge and lake levels, precipitation, and weather types and based on climate model simulations, focusing on the warm season. Annual series of peak discharge or maximum lake level, in agreement with previous studies, display increased frequency of floods in the mid-19th century and decreased frequency after the Second World War. Annual series of warm-season mean precipitation and high percentiles of 3 d precipitation totals (partly) reflect these changes. A daily weather type classification since 1763 is used to construct flood probability indices for the catchments of the Rhine in Basel and the outflow of Lake Lugano, Ponte Tresa. The indices indicate an increased frequency of flood-prone weather types in the mid-19th century and a decreased frequency in the post-war period, consistent with a climate reconstruction that shows increased (decreased) cyclonic flow over western Europe in the former (latter) period. To assess the driving factors of the detected circulation changes, we analyze weather types and precipitation in a large ensemble of atmospheric model simulations driven with observed sea-surface temperatures. In the simulations, we do not find an increase in flood-prone weather types in the Rhine catchment in the 19th century but a decrease in the post-war period that could have been related to sea-surface temperature anomalies.

scholarly journals Collections of Japanese Art in Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2(6)) ◽  
pp. 109-123
Author(s):  
Alla Ozhoha-Maslovska
Keyword(s):  
19Th Century ◽  
Political System ◽  
Art Museum ◽  
National Museum ◽  
Literature Information ◽  
Professional Literature ◽  
Art Collections ◽  
Japanese Art ◽  
Post War ◽  
The 19Th Century

The stages of the formation of Japanese art collections on the territory of Ukraine from the beginning of the 19th century to the present are highlighted on the basis of archival materials, periodicals and professional literature. Information about Japanese collections of the pre-war and post-war periods are systematized, while their composition and sources of formation are determined. The influence of the socio-political system on the development of the process of collecting Japanese art in Ukraine is also analysed. The sources of the formation of collections of Japanese art in the collections of The Bohdan and Varvara Khanenko National Museum of Arts in Kyiv, Odessa Museum of Western and Oriental Arts, the Chinese Palace of “Zolochiv Castle” Museum-Reserve, as well as Kharkiv Art Museum are explored. Finally, modern tendencies in the collection of Japanese art in Ukraine are determined.

scholarly journals Implication of methodological uncertainties for mid-Holocene sea surface temperature reconstructions

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 2237-2252 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Hessler ◽  
S. P. Harrison ◽  
M. Kucera ◽  
C. Waelbroeck ◽  
M.-T. Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Planktonic Foraminifera ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Analytical Approaches ◽  
Baseline Climate

Abstract. We present and examine a multi-sensor global compilation of mid-Holocene (MH) sea surface temperatures (SST), based on Mg/Ca and alkenone palaeothermometry and reconstructions obtained using planktonic foraminifera and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst census counts. We assess the uncertainties originating from using different methodologies and evaluate the potential of MH SST reconstructions as a benchmark for climate-model simulations. The comparison between different analytical approaches (time frame, baseline climate) shows the choice of time window for the MH has a negligible effect on the reconstructed SST pattern, but the choice of baseline climate affects both the magnitude and spatial pattern of the reconstructed SSTs. Comparison of the SST reconstructions made using different sensors shows significant discrepancies at a regional scale, with uncertainties often exceeding the reconstructed SST anomaly. Apparent patterns in SST may largely be a reflection of the use of different sensors in different regions. Overall, the uncertainties associated with the SST reconstructions are generally larger than the MH anomalies. Thus, the SST data currently available cannot serve as a target for benchmarking model simulations. Further evaluations of potential subsurface and/or seasonal artifacts that may contribute to obscure the MH SST reconstructions are urgently needed to provide reliable benchmarks for model evaluations.

Evolution of Water Vapor Concentrations and Stratospheric Age of Air in Coupled Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 905-921 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Austin ◽  
John Wilson ◽  
Feng Li ◽  
Holger Vömel
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Time Slice ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract Stratospheric water vapor concentrations and age of air are investigated in an ensemble of coupled chemistry-climate model simulations covering the period from 1960 to 2005. Observed greenhouse gas concentrations, halogen concentrations, aerosol amounts, and sea surface temperatures are all specified in the model as time-varying fields. The results are compared with two experiments (time-slice runs) with constant forcings for the years 1960 and 2000, in which the sea surface temperatures are set to the same climatological values, aerosol concentrations are fixed at background levels, while greenhouse gas and halogen concentrations are set to the values for the relevant years. The time-slice runs indicate an increase in stratospheric water vapor from 1960 to 2000 due primarily to methane oxidation. The age of air is found to be significantly less in the year 2000 run than the 1960 run. The transient runs from 1960 to 2005 indicate broadly similar results: an increase in water vapor and a decrease in age of air. However, the results do not change gradually. The age of air decreases significantly only after about 1975, corresponding to the period of ozone reduction. The age of air is related to tropical upwelling, which determines the transport of methane into the stratosphere. Oxidation of increased methane from enhanced tropical upwelling results in higher water vapor amounts. In the model simulations, the rate of increase of stratospheric water vapor during the period of enhanced upwelling is up to twice the long-term mean. The concentration of stratospheric water vapor also increases following volcanic eruptions during the simulations.

scholarly journals Spring warming drives past and future shifts in Great Plains storm intensity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chijun Sun ◽  
Timothy Shanahan ◽  
Pedro DiNezio ◽  
Nicholas McKay ◽  
Priyadarsi Roy
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Past Behavior ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract The climate of the Great Plains is dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCS), which supply a significant portion of warm season rainfall and are responsible for severe weather and flooding across the region. However, little is known about past behavior and long-term drivers of these systems, limiting our ability to predict future changes in hydroclimate and extreme weather for much of the central US. Here, we generate a new record of past MCS activity and hydroclimate variability from central Texas and compare it against the results of transient climate model simulations to understand the underlying causes of past changes in extreme weather and climate in the central US. We find that changes in storm activity and hydroclimate in the southern Great Plains over the last the 20,000 years were dominated by changes in the strength of the Great Plains Low Level Jet, driven by springtime land surface temperature changes. These results suggest that a similar dynamical response to future warming will lead to enhanced MCS activity and an increase in extreme weather and flooding across the southern and central Great Plains in the future.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Euro-Mediterranean Daytime Severe Thunderstorm Environments Based on an RCP8.5 Med-CORDEX Simulation

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 822
Author(s):  
Abdullah Kahraman ◽  
Deniz Ural ◽  
Barış Önol
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Thermodynamic Conditions ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Convective scale processes and, therefore, thunderstorm-related hazards cannot be simulated using regional climate models with horizontal grid spacing in the order of 10 km. However, larger-scale environmental conditions of these local high-impact phenomena can be diagnosed to assess their frequency in current and future climates. In this study, we present a daytime climatology of severe thunderstorm environments and its evolution for a wide Euro-Mediterranean domain through the 21st century, using regional climate model simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Currently, severe convective weather is more frequently favored around Central Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Our results suggest that with a steady progress until the end of the century, Mediterranean coasts are projected to experience a significantly higher frequency of severe thunderstorm environments, while a slight decrease over parts of continental Europe is evaluated. The increase across the Mediterranean is mostly owed to the warming sea surface, which strengthens thermodynamic conditions in the wintertime, while local factors arguably keep the shear frequency relatively higher than the entire region. On the other hand, future northward extension of the subtropical belt over Europe in the warm season reduces the number of days with severe thunderstorm environments.

Messinian and Zanclean continental formations of the Montpellier region and their relevance to the geodynamic model of Georges Clauzon (1996)

2011 ◽  
Vol 182 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Ambert
Keyword(s):  
19Th Century ◽  
The Other ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Geological Data ◽  
Innovative Treatment ◽  
Hard Rocks ◽  
The North ◽  
Mammal Fauna ◽  
The One ◽  
The 19Th Century

Abstract The Pliocene period in the Montpellier region, considered as being emblematic since the middle of the 19th century because of its diverse mammal fauna, has not received much innovative treatment over the last 30 years. In particular, there has been no reinterpretation of geological data in the light of the Messinian-Zanclean double eustasy and related mechanisms. And yet, the increase in the number of urban projects affecting the Pliocene terrains and substratum has allowed for a renewed analysis of these areas in conformity with the results obtained in the nearby valley of the Rhône river. Highlighting the discordance, the regressive Messinian erosion has allowed for the Pliocene fluviatile network of the Lez to emerge. This in turn has made possible the reconstruction of a digitate network that recorded all of the phases of the filling in of these Pliocene rias. This is particularly clear thanks to the study of the Messinian discordance in the hard rocks of the Montpellier fold on the one hand, and on the other, within the Neogene ditches. Since the Messinian, the course of the Mosson and Lez rivers, just as that of the Vidourle river, tracked heavily to the east. This is how the Pliocene Mosson river crossed the Montpellier fold. In fact these modifications of the river courses, made possible by the reuse, until the end of the Pliocene, of the erosion surfaces of the coastal links (the Montpellier fold, the Gardiole), correspond to the accentuation of the deformations of these surfaces. The amplitude and variability of these movements is a result of the altitude of the marine-continental Pliocene transition. This altitude is doubtless often rather approximate, but it differs considerably with respect to the coastal Jurassic ranges (the Montpellier fold to the north, the Gardiole to the south), which frame the Pliocene “Gulf” of Montpellier. The two coastal ranges, calcareous and sub-parallel to the sea surface, have succeeded in channeling the transgression at the point of the saddleback axes, conferring Dalmatian coastal characteristics to the Pliocene ria.

scholarly journals Studies on Roman coin finds from the Central European Barbaricum in the Institute of Archaeology of the Jagiellonian University – an overview

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 207-229
Author(s):  
Jarosław Bodzek ◽  
Kamil Kopij ◽  
Szymon Jellonek ◽  
Barbara Zając
Keyword(s):  
19Th Century ◽  
Iron Age ◽  
16Th Century ◽  
Central European ◽  
Classical Archaeology ◽  
Roman Coins ◽  
Post War ◽  
The University ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
Research Centres

A direct successor of the oldest tradition of academic archaeology in Poland, the Institute of Archaeology of the Jagiellonian University ranks among the leading research centres with respect to studies on the influx of Roman coins into European Barbaricum. The interest in Roman coinage at the Jagiellonian University pre-dates archaeology and can be traced back to the 16th century and the professors of the Kraków Academy (the name of the university at that time) Maciej of Miechów (1457–1523) and Stanisław Grzebski (1524–1570). In the 19th century, Roman coins discovered in the vicinity of Kraków attracted the interest of Jerzy Samuel Bandtke (1768–1835). However, the time when this area of research enjoyed particular development falls to the last years before WWII and the post-war period. A significant role in this respect was played by researchers either representing the JU Institute of Archaeology, like Professors Rudolf Jamka (1906–1972), Kazimierz Godłowski (1934–1995), and Piotr Kaczanowski (1944–2015), or those cooperating with the Institute like Professor Stefan Skowronek (1928–2019). Their activity laid the foundations for today’s research on the finds of Roman coins and their inflow into the territories of the Roman Period Barbaricum. Currently, this area of studies is within the focus of two of the departments of the Institute of Archaeology: the Department of Iron Age Archaeology and the Department of Classical Archaeology. The intensification of research on the inflow of Roman coins owes much to the Finds of Roman coins in Poland and connected with PL project, carried out in 2014–2018 under the leadership of Professor Aleksander Burshe, with important contributions provided by a group of scholars from the JU Institute of Archaeology. Despite the conclusion of the project, studies on the inflow of Roman coins will continue.12345

scholarly journals Przemiany narodowościowe w Abchazji od II połowy XIX do początku XXI wieku

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrzej Jakubowski
Keyword(s):  
Ottoman Empire ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
21St Century ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Late 19Th Century ◽  
International Recognition ◽  
Post War ◽  
The 19Th Century

Ethnic changes in Abkhazia (2nd half of the 19th century– beginning of the 21st century)Main aim of the paper is to analyse ethnic changes that took place in Abkhazia from the 60s of the 19th century to the present. The paper discusses the changes in ethnic structure of Abkhazia caused by the forced exodus of the Abkhazians to the Ottoman Empire (muhajirstvo), the process of multinational settlement in Abkhazia from the late 19th century to the 1990s, the Georgian-Abkhazian war of 1992-1993 and the national policy of de facto Abkhazia led in the post-war period in the terms of the absence of international recognition. Przemiany narodowościowe w Abchazji od II połowy XIX do początku XXI wiekuCelem artykułu jest analiza przemian narodowościowych, jakie zaszły w Abchazji począwszy od lat 60. XIX wieku do chwili obecnej. W pracy omówiono zmiany w strukturze etnicznej w Abchazji warunkowane przymusowym eksodusem Abchazów do Imperium Osmańskiego (muchadżyrstwo), procesem wielonarodowościowego osadnictwa na te- renie Abchazji od końca XIX wieku do lat 90. XX wieku, wojną gruzińsko-abchaską z lat 1992-1993 oraz polityką narodowościową de facto Abchazji prowadzoną w okresie powojennym w warunkach braku uznania międzynarodowego.

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