scholarly journals Quantifying dating uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimate proxy archives

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen ◽  
Keno Riechers ◽  
Martin Wibe Rypdal ◽  
Niklas Boers
Keyword(s):  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Depth Interval ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Noise Component ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Complete Uncertainty ◽  
Multivariate Gaussian Process ◽  
Depth Relationship ◽  
Paleoclimate Proxy

Abstract. Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses; for example for identification and dating of stadial-interstadial transitions in Greenland ice core records during glacial intervals, for comparing the variability in different proxy archives, and for model-data comparisons in general. In this study we develop a statistical framework to quantify and propagate dating uncertainties in layer-counted proxy archives using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structured component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a regression model, and a noise component that represents the fluctuations of the underlying physical processes, as well as unbiased counting errors. The age-depth relationship of the joint dating uncertainties can then be described by a multivariate Gaussian process from which realizations of the chronology can be sampled. We show how the effect of an unknown counting bias can be incorporated in our framework and present refined estimates of the occurrence times of Dansgaard-Oeschger events evidenced in Greenland ice cores together with a complete uncertainty quantification of these timings.

A statistical model for dating uncertainties in Greenland ice core records

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen ◽  
Niklas boers ◽  
Martin Rypdal ◽  
Keno Riechers
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Gaussian Process ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Depth Interval ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Gaussian White Noise Process ◽  
Multivariate Gaussian ◽  
Multivariate Gaussian Process ◽  
Ice Core Records

<p>Most layer-counting based paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Proper knowledge of the dating uncertainties in paleoclimatic ice core records is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses; for example for identification and dating of stadial-interstadial transitions during glacial intervals, for model-data comparisons in general, or to provide a complete uncertainty quantification of early warning signals. We develop a statistical model that incorporates the dating uncertainties of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05), which includes the uncertainty associated with layer counting. We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structural component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a linear regression model, and a noise component that represents the internal variation of the underlying physical processes, as well as residual counting errors. We find the residual components to be described well by a Gaussian white noise process that appear to be largely uncorrelated, allowing us to represent the dating uncertainties using a multivariate Gaussian process. This means that we can easily produce simulations as well as incorporate tie-points from other proxy records to match the GICC05 time scale to other chronologies. Moreover, this multivariate Gaussian process exhibits Markov properties which grants a substantial gain in computational efficiency.</p>

scholarly journals No evidence for tephra in Greenland from the historic eruption of Vesuvius in 79 CE: Implications for geochronology and paleoclimatology

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gill Plunkett ◽  
Michael Sigl ◽  
Hans Schwaiger ◽  
Emma Tomlinson ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ice Core ◽  
Trace Element Composition ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Volcanic Event ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Aleutian Arc ◽  
Polar Ice Sheets ◽  
Paleoclimate Proxy ◽  
Common Era

Abstract. Volcanic signatures archived in polar ice sheets provide important opportunities to date and correlate ice-core records as well as to investigate the environmental impacts of eruptions. Only the geochemical characterization of volcanic ash (tephra) embedded in the ice strata can confirm the source of the eruption, however, and is a requisite if historical eruption ages are to be used as valid chronological checks on annual ice layer counting. Here we report the investigation of ash particles in a Greenland ice core that are associated with a volcanic sulfuric acid layer previously attributed to the 79 CE eruption of Vesuvius. Major and trace element composition of the particles indicates that the tephra does not derive from Vesuvius but most likely originates from an unidentified eruption in the Aleutian arc. Using ash dispersal modelling, we find that only an eruption large enough to include stratospheric injection is likely to account for the sizeable (24–85 μm) ash particles observed in the Greenland ice at this time. Despite its likely explosivity, this event does not appear to have triggered significant climate perturbations, unlike some other large extra-tropical eruptions. In light of a recent re-evaluation of the Greenland ice-core chronologies, our findings further challenge the previous dating of this volcanic event to 79 CE. We highlight the need for the revised Common Era ice-core chronology to be formally accepted by the wider ice-core and climate modelling communities in order to ensure robust age linkages to precisely dated historical and paleoclimate proxy records.

scholarly journals A Radiocarbon Perspective on Greenland Ice-Core Chronologies: Can we Use Ice Cores for 14C Calibration?

Radiocarbon ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 1239-1259 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Southon
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Strong Correlations ◽  
Crucial Importance ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Some of the most valuable paleoclimate archives yet recovered are the multi-proxy records from the Greenland GISP2 and GRIP ice cores. The crucial importance of these data arises in part from the strong correlations that exist between the Greenland δ18O records and isotopic or other proxies in numerous other Northern Hemisphere paleoclimate sequences. These correlations could, in principle, allow layer-counted ice-core chronologies to be transferred to radiocarbon-dated paleoclimate archives, thus providing a 14C calibration for the Last Glacial Maximum and Isotope Stage 3, back to the instrumental limits of the 14C technique. However, this possibility is confounded by the existence of numerous different chronologies, as opposed to a single (or even a “best”) ice-core time scale. This paper reviews how the various chronologies were developed, summarizes the differences between them, and examines ways in which further research may allow a 14C calibration to be established.

scholarly journals High-resolution mineral dust and sea ice proxy records from the Talos Dome ice core

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 2789-2807 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Schüpbach ◽  
U. Federer ◽  
P. R. Kaufmann ◽  
S. Albani ◽  
C. Barbante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ross Sea ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Proxy Records

Abstract. In this study we report on new non-sea salt calcium (nssCa2+, mineral dust proxy) and sea salt sodium (ssNa+, sea ice proxy) records along the East Antarctic Talos Dome deep ice core in centennial resolution reaching back 150 thousand years (ka) before present. During glacial conditions nssCa2+ fluxes in Talos Dome are strongly related to temperature as has been observed before in other deep Antarctic ice core records, and has been associated with synchronous changes in the main source region (southern South America) during climate variations in the last glacial. However, during warmer climate conditions Talos Dome mineral dust input is clearly elevated compared to other records mainly due to the contribution of additional local dust sources in the Ross Sea area. Based on a simple transport model, we compare nssCa2+ fluxes of different East Antarctic ice cores. From this multi-site comparison we conclude that changes in transport efficiency or atmospheric lifetime of dust particles do have a minor effect compared to source strength changes on the large-scale concentration changes observed in Antarctic ice cores during climate variations of the past 150 ka. Our transport model applied on ice core data is further validated by climate model data. The availability of multiple East Antarctic nssCa2+ records also allows for a revision of a former estimate on the atmospheric CO2 sensitivity to reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene (T1). While a former estimate based on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) record only suggested 20 ppm, we find that reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean may be responsible for up to 40 ppm of the total atmospheric CO2 increase during T1. During the last interglacial, ssNa+ levels of EDC and EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) are only half of the Holocene levels, in line with higher temperatures during that period, indicating much reduced sea ice extent in the Atlantic as well as the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. In contrast, Holocene ssNa+ flux in Talos Dome is about the same as during the last interglacial, indicating that there was similar ice cover present in the Ross Sea area during MIS 5.5 as during the Holocene.

A multiproxy approach to identify the Tambora volcanic fallout in 1810s from the Styx glacier in Victoria Land, Antarctica

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changhee Han ◽  
Songyi Kim ◽  
Yeongcheol Han ◽  
Jangil Moon ◽  
Sang-Bum Hong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Inner Core ◽  
Major Ions ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Isotope Ratios ◽  
Depth Interval ◽  
Additional Time ◽  
Aerosol Composition ◽  
Annual Layer ◽  
Victoria Land

<p>Ice cores provide records of past aerosol composition and have been used to reconstruct the relative contribution of different emission sources changing in time. A precise age scale is essential to achieve this goal, for which annual layer counting of seasonal cycles in water stable isotope ratios (δ<sup>18</sup>O and δD) and major ion concentrations have been basically utilized. Introducing additional time markers are helpful for reducing the uncertainty of the depth-age scale, and the fallout of volcanic products has offered useful time markers when they are well-dated. Here, we report lead isotope ratios (<sup>206</sup>Pb/<sup>207</sup>Pb and <sup>208</sup>Pb/<sup>207</sup>Pb) and concentrations of thallium (Tl) and major ions in a shallow ice core from the Styx Glacier (73°51 S, 163°41 E) in the Victoria Land, Antarctica, analyzed for discriminating volcanic products of the 1815 AD Tambora eruption, Indonesia from local volcanic inputs. Mechanically decontaminated 19 inner core pieces between the depth interval 40.8 – 42.4 m were analyzed. The results show that the increases of volcanic SO<sub>4</sub><sup>2-</sup> input are accompanied by either (1) input of more-radiogenic lead (higher <sup>206</sup>Pb/<sup>207</sup>Pb) and Tl or (2) relatively <sup>208</sup>Pb enriched lead. These results suggest that the Tambora volcanic input is overprinted by local volcanic aerosol input and that the isotope-based assessment of the Pb sources can help to discriminate between remote and local components of the volcanic input signals recorded in Victoria Land glaciers.</p>

scholarly journals The preservation of methanesulphonic acid in frozen ice-core samples

2008 ◽  
Vol 54 (187) ◽  
pp. 680-684 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nerilie J. Abram ◽  
Mark A.J. Curran ◽  
Robert Mulvaney ◽  
Tessa Vance
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Frozen Storage ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Ice Storage ◽  
Core Samples ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Subsequent Determination ◽  
Earth’S Climate

AbstractIce-core records of methanesulphonic acid (MSA) provide a potentially powerful tool for producing proxy records of sea ice, a critical but poorly understood component of the Earth’s climate system. However, MSA is able to diffuse through solid ice, and here we examine the effect of two different methods of frozen storage on the preservation of MSA in archived ice-core samples. Re-analysis of archived ice sticks confirms that MSA diffuses out of ice cores archived in this manner. Despite MSA losses of up to 39% after 7 years storage, the ice sticks studied here preserve much of the variability of the original MSA record, suggesting that useful proxy records can be obtained from archived ice sticks. Furthermore, re-analysis of ice-core samples that had been refrozen into discrete bottled samples for storage demonstrates that it is possible to archive ice samples in a way that prevents MSA loss. In this case, accurate records of MSA variability and concentration were preserved even over storage periods of 15 years. This has important implications for the storage of ice cores and subsequent determination of MSA, and demonstrates that ice storage history needs to be considered when interpreting MSA records.

scholarly journals High resolution climate reconstructions of recent warming using instrumental and ice core records from coastal Antarctica

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 665-672
Author(s):  
MELOTH THAMBAN ◽  
SUSHANT S.NAIK ◽  
C.M. LALURAJ ◽  
R. RAVINDRA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Temporal Consistency ◽  
The Past ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Dronning Maud Land ◽  
Land Region

In-situ observational record of Antarctic surface temperatures is rather sparse. Proxy based ice core studies are thus critical for reconstructing the past climate change on centennial and decadal time scales. The present study review the available instrumental and proxy records from the Dronning Maud Land region of East Antarctica as well as report recent evidences of Antarctic climate change and its global linkages. The monthly mean air temperature records of the Novolazarevskaya (Novo) station, which is the longest (since 1961) and continuous meteorological record in this region, revealed a significant warming trend at a rate of 0.25 °C / decade. To understand the spatial and temporal consistency of this warming, well-dated ice cores from the coastal Dronning Maud Land region were assessed. All proxy records consistently suggest an enhanced warming up to +0.12 °C / decade. This is further supported by a recent assessment of stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope proxy records from two high resolution ice cores (IND-25/B5 and IND-22/B4) from this region. Among these records, the IND-25/B5 provided ultra-high-resolution data for the past 100 years (1905-2005) and the IND-22/B4 core represented the past ~470 years (1530-2002) of Antarctic change. These ice records provided insights on the influence of solar forcing on Antarctic climate system as well as its linkages with the tropical and mid-latitude climatic modes like the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The calculated surface air temperatures using these records showed a warming by 0.06-0.1 °C / decade, with greatly enhanced warming during the past several decades (~0.4 °C / decade). It is confirmed that the coastal areas of Dronning Maud Land are indeed warming and the trend is apparently enhancing in the recent decades.

scholarly journals Multiproxy records of climate variability for Kamchatka for the past 400 years

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 1051-1073 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Solomina ◽  
G. Wiles ◽  
T. Shiraiwa ◽  
R. D’Arrigo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Tree Rings ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
The Past ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ice Core Record ◽  
Decadal Variations

Abstract. Tree rings, ice cores and glacial geologic histories for the past several centuries offer an opportunity to characterize climate variability and to identify the key climate parameters forcing glacier expansions. A newly developed larch ring-width chronology is presented for Kamchatka that is sensitive to past summer temperature variability. This record provides the basis to compare with other proxy records of inferred temperature and precipitation change from ice core and glacier records, and to characterize climate for the region over the past 400 years. Individual low growth years in the larch record are associated with several known and proposed volcanic events that have been observed in other proxy records from the Northern Hemisphere. Comparison of the tree-rings with an ice core record of melt feature index for Kamchatka's Ushkovsky volcano confirms a 1–3 year dating accuracy for this ice core series over the late 18th to 20th centuries. Decadal variations of low summer temperatures (tree-ring record) and high annual precipitation (ice core record) are broadly consistent with intervals of positive mass balance measured and estimated at several glaciers, and with moraine building, provides a basis to interpret geologic glacier records.

scholarly journals Structure and Flow in the Margin of the Law Dome Ice Cap. Antarctica (Abstract)

1988 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 222
Author(s):  
Neal W. Young
Keyword(s):  
Physical Properties ◽  
Crystal Size ◽  
Flow Line ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Crystallographic Structure ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Radio Echo Sounding ◽  
The Law

The internal structure of the Law Dome ice cap is being investigated by studying ice cores obtained from several sites along the summit-Cape Folger line. Profiles of measured physical properties for four of the ice cores from near the margin of the ice cap are presented. A comparison of the profiles shows a gradual increase and then decrease in crystal size, and the development of strong crystal anisotropy in the upper half of the ice thickness. But in the lower part there is a complex multi-layer crystallographic structure, with an interleaving of ice which has markedly different physical properties. The development of the physical properties in the ice cores is discussed in terms of the deformation in the ice cap in the neighbourhood of the bore holes and the movement of the ice over the rough bedrock. The interdependence of the physical properties and the flow within the ice cap and their effect on other proxy records obtained from the ice cores are also explored. The Law Dome is a small ice cap, about 200 km in diameter, adjoining the main Antarctic ice sheet. It is being studied as a model ice cap, using surface surveys and ice-core drilling. It is large enough to have most of the features of larger ice sheets but small enough to be investigated in considerable detail. The four cores were drilled within 10 km of the coast at Cape Folger and lie approximately along a flow line. Each of the cores covers the Holocene and at least the later part of the Last Glacial Maximum. Two of the cores are within 40 m of bedrock and the remaining two, in thinner ice nearer the coast, are within a few metres of bedrock. Physical properties which were measured include: crystal size, texture and orientation; bubble size, orientation and distribution; and visible stratigraphy. The stratigraphy in the upper layers is related mainly to the occurrence of surface melting during the warmer months of the year. Additional supporting information is available from measurements of the physical properties on shallow cores up-stream of the four bore holes, from radio echo-sounding profiles and from other studies on the ice cores. This data is used in the discussion of the velocity field in the ice cap.

scholarly journals The NorthGRIP ice-core logging procedure: description and evaluation

2002 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 5-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Schøtt Hvidberg ◽  
Jørgen Peder Steffensen ◽  
Henrik B. Clausen ◽  
Hitoshi Shoji ◽  
Joseph Kipfstuhl
Keyword(s):  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Depth Interval ◽  
Conductivity Measurements ◽  
The Core ◽  
The North ◽  
Core Logging ◽  
Independent Evaluation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
North Greenland

AbstractThe ice-core logging procedure used to log the North Greenland Icecore Project (NorthGRIP) ice cores is described. the existence of two deep ice cores, NorthGRIP 1and 2, drilled 25 mapart, allows an independent evaluation of the procedure. the logged depths of the NorthGRIP 1 and 2 cores deviate from the length of the unwound drill cable corrected for elongation of the cable when hanging in the hole, by 1.5‰ and 50.5‰ at depths of 1371 and 2931 m, respectively. Differences between logged depths of identified layers found in both cores are studied in the depth interval where they overlap. Layers are identified by electrical conductivity measurements and dielectric profiling. the difference between the logged depths of layers identified in both cores increases to 0.5 m close to the bottom of the NorthGRIP 1 core, which is <0.5 mm m–1 ice core. the comparison between the two cores shows that the NorthGRIP logging procedure is accurate and reproducible. Further, our results show that the temperature conditions and handling of the core during logging are important for obtaining a precise depth.

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