Drought and water management in the German agricultural sector - a participatory system dynamics approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Valencia ◽  
Sabine Egerer ◽  
María Máñez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Elevated Temperatures ◽  
Agricultural System ◽  
Group Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

<p>Higher temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns caused by climate change may potentially affect water availability for agriculture and increase the risk of crop loss in Northeast Lower Saxony (NELS), Germany. The drought of 2018 showed that an intensification of irrigation might be a temporary solution. However, a long-term increase in water extraction, especially during drought periods, is not a sustainable solution. To assess possible water management solutions, we implement a participatory system dynamics approach, namely Group Model Building, to develop a qualitative system dynamics model (QSDM) describing the agricultural system and its relation to water resources in NELS.</p><p>The development of the QSDM seeks to understand the complexity of the interactions between agriculture and hydrological systems, recognize the stakeholders’ needs and identify risks and weaknesses of both systems. By understanding this, we expect to reinforce the adaptation process, reduce conflict and be able to suggest tailored solutions and adaptation measures. The QSDM incorporates a wide range of perceptions, as twenty stakeholders ranging from farmers, government agencies, environmental protection organizations and local water authorities were involved in the QSDM development. Their perceptions were recorded in the QSDM through individual interviews and a group workshop.</p><p>Through the QSDM, we identified and mapped the structure and connections between agriculture and the water balance. It was also possible to identify the strongest feedback loops governing both sectors as well as their influence on the current situation. The loops represent behaviors and structures, which might become unmanageable under climate change conditions. The causal loops include the different uses for the available water of the region, the impact of irrigation, the significance of crop selection and the importance of sustainable soil management.</p><p>By analyzing the system this way, we confirmed that climate change poses a risk to the region as elevated temperatures could increase the crop water demand and increase the need for irrigation. In the same way, changes in the rain patterns could affect the water balance of the region. The agricultural system has, however, potential to adapt by implementing new water management strategies such as restructuring water rights, water storage and reuse and conjunctive water use. Other measures include increasing the irrigation efficiency, changing crops and enhancing the soil quality, among others.</p>

scholarly journals Ecosystem-Based Adaptation for the Impact of Climate Change and Variation in the Water Management Sector of Sri Lanka

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Bhabishya Khaniya ◽  
Miyuru B. Gunathilake ◽  
Upaka Rathnayake
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Quality Of Water ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

The climate of Sri Lanka has been fluctuating at an alarming rate during the recent past. These changes are reported to have pronounced impacts on the livelihoods of the people in the country. Water is central to the sustainable functioning of ecosystems and wellbeing of mankind. It is evident that pronounced variations in the climate will negatively impact the availability and the quality of water resources. The ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) approach has proved to be an effective strategy to address the impact of climate change on water resources in many parts of the world. The key aim of this paper is to elaborate the wide range of benefits received through implementation of EbAs in field level, watershed scale, and urban and coastal environments in the context of Sri Lanka. In addition, this paper discusses the benefits of utilizing EbA solutions over grey infrastructure-based solutions to address the issues related to water management. The wide range of benefits received through implementation of EbAs can be broadly classified into three categories: water supply regulation, water quality regulation, and moderation of extreme events. This paper recommends the utilization of EbAs over grey infrastructure-based solutions in adaptation to climate change in the water management sector for the developing region due its cost effectiveness, ecofriendliness, and multiple benefits received on long-term scales. The findings of this study will unequivocally contribute to filling existing knowledge and research gaps in the context of EbAs to future climate change in Sri Lanka. The suggestions and opinions of this study can be taken into account by decision makers and water resources planning agencies for future planning of actions related to climate change adaptation in Sri Lanka.

scholarly journals USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF CONNECTICUT GOOD SAMARITAN LAWS: A PROTOCOL PAPER

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Shayan Ali ◽  
Nasim S Sabounchi ◽  
Robert Heimer ◽  
Gail DOnofrio ◽  
Colleen Violette ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Opioid Overdose ◽  
Group Model ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Group Model Building ◽  
Good Samaritan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Good Samaritan Laws ◽  
Sd Model

Background We applied a participatory system dynamics (SD) modeling approach to evaluate the effectiveness and impact of Connecticut Good Samaritan Laws (GSLs) that are designed to promote bystander intervention during an opioid overdose event and reduce opioid overdose-related adverse outcomes. Our SD model can be used to predict whether additional revisions of the statutes might make GSLs more effective. SD modeling is a novel approach for assessing the impact of GSLs; and, in this protocol paper, we describe its applicability to our policy question, as well as expected outcomes of this approach. Methods This project began in February 2021 and is expected to conclude by March 2022. During this time, a total of six group model-building (GMB) sessions will have been held with key stakeholders to elicit feedback that will, in turn, contribute to the development of a more robust SD model. Session participants include bystanders who witness an overdose, law enforcement personnel, first responders, pharmacists, physicians, and other health care professionals who work in at least two major metropolitan areas of Connecticut (New Haven and Hartford). Due to the restrictions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the sessions are being held virtually via Zoom. The information obtained during these sessions will be integrated with a draft SD model that has already been developed by the modeling team as part of a previous CDC-funded project. Model calibration and policy simulations will then be performed to assess the impact of the current GSLs and to make recommendations for future public policy changes. Discussion An SD modeling approach enables capture of complex interrelationships among multiple health outcomes to better assess the drivers of the opioid epidemic in Connecticut. The model simulation results are expected not only to align with current real-world data but also to recreate historical trends and infer future trends in a situationally relevant fashion. This will facilitate the work of policy makers who are devising and implementing time-sensitive changes to address opioid overdose-related deaths at the state level. Replicating our approach as described can be applied to make similar improvements in other jurisdictions. CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE LITERATURE - System dynamics (SD) modeling and group model-building (GMB) approaches enable the group to start with a simple concept model and apply the collective knowledge of the group to finish the session with a much more developed model that can produce impressively accurate simulation results. - The model will be used to understand the impact of Connecticut Good Samaritan Laws (GSLs), as well as their limitations, and to deduce factors to further improve public health laws to counter opioid overdose-related deaths. - The approach can be applied to other jurisdictions, taking into account local conditions and existing Good Samaritan legislation. KEYWORDS: System dynamics modeling, group model building, opioid overdose deaths, opioid use disorder, Good Samaritan laws

scholarly journals Participatory Evaluation of Water Management Options for Climate Change Adaptation in River Basins

Environments ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Anabel Sanchez-Plaza ◽  
Annelies Broekman ◽  
Javier Retana ◽  
Adriana Bruggeman ◽  
Elias Giannakis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Participatory Evaluation ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
The Impact

Climate and other human-induced changes will increase water scarcity in world areas such as in the Mediterranean. Adaptation principles need to be urgently incorporated into water management and stakeholder engagement needs to be strengthened at all steps of the management cycle. This study aimed to analyse and compare stakeholder-preferred water management options (WMOs) to face climate change related challenges and to foster adaptation in four Mediterranean river basins. The challenges and WMOs of the four river basins identified by stakeholders were analysed examining to what extent the WMOs tackled the identified challenges. The impact of the WMOs resulting from a participatory modelling method was included in a comparative analysis of the stakeholders’ WMOs preferences. The results indicate the participatory approach that was applied allowed local priorities and real-world challenges to be defined with adequate detail as well as the definition of tailored responses. The participatory impact analysis provided an integrated view of the river basin as an interrelated system. The participatory evaluation of the WMOs was able to consider a wide range of elements and was able reflect the combined preferences of the stakeholders. Moreover, it allowed groups of basin actors with highly diverse profiles and concerns to further promote sets of these WMOs as input into decision making processes.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

Exploring construction workers' attitudinal ambivalence: a system dynamics approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng Xu ◽  
Mengge Zhang ◽  
Bo Xia ◽  
Jiangbo Liu
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Negative Attitude ◽  
Construction Workers ◽  
Group Model ◽  
Group Model Building ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Work Pressure ◽  
Safety Attitude

PurposeThis study aimed to identify driving factors of safety attitudinal ambivalence (AA) and explore their influence. Construction workers' intention to act safely can be instable under conflicting information from safety management, co-workers and habitual unsafe behaviour. Existing research explained the mechanism of unsafe behaviours as individual decisions but failed to include AA, as the co-existence of both positive and negative attitude.Design/methodology/approachThis study applied system dynamics to explore factors of construction workers' AA and simulate the process of mitigating the ambivalence for less safety behaviour. Specifically, the group model building approach with eight experts was used to map the causal loop diagram and field questionnaire of 209 construction workers were used to collect empirical data for initiating parameters.FindingsThe group model building identified five direct factors of AA, namely the organisational safety support, important others' safety attitude, emotional arousal, safety production experience and work pressure, with seven feedback paths. The questionnaire survey obtained the initial values of the factors in the SD model, with the average ambivalence at 0.389. The ambivalence between cognitive and affective safety attitude was the highest. Model simulation results indicated that safety experience and work pressure had the most significant effects, and safety experience and positive attitude of co-workers could compensate the pressure from tight schedule and budget.Originality/valueThis study provided a new perspective of the dynamic safety attitude under the co-existence of positive and negative attitude, identified its driving factors and their influencing paths. The group model building approach and field questionnaire surveys were used to provide convincible suggestions for empirical safety management with least and most effective approaches and possible interventions to prevent unsafe behaviour with tight schedule and budget.

Communicating water-related climate change hazards to local stakeholders

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Müller ◽  
Petra Döll
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Biosphere Reserve ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Local Stakeholders ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

<p>Due to climate change, the water cycle is changing which requires to adapt water management in many regions. The transdisciplinary project KlimaRhön aims at assessing water-related risks and developing adaptation measures in water management in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Rhön in Central Germany. One of the challenges is to inform local stakeholders about hydrological hazards in in the biosphere reserve, which has an area of only 2433 km² and for which no regional hydrological simulations are available. To overcome the lack of local simulations of the impact of climate change on water resources, existing simulations by a number of global hydrological models (GHMs) were evaluated for the study area. While the coarse model resolution of 0.5°x0.5° (55 km x 55 km at the equator) is certainly problematic for the small study area, the advantage is that both the uncertainty of climate simulations and hydrological models can be taken into account to provide a best estimate of future hazards and their (large) uncertainties. This is different from most local hydrological climate change impact assessments, where only one hydrological model is used, which leads to an underestimation of future uncertainty as different hydrological models translate climatic changes differently into hydrological changes and, for example, mostly do not take into account the effect of changing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> on evapotranspiration and thus runoff.   </p><p>The global climate change impact simulations were performed in a consistent manner by various international modeling groups following a protocol developed by ISIMIP (ISIMIP 2b, www.isimip.org); the simulation results are freely available for download. We processed, analyzed and visualized the results of the multi-model ensemble, which consists of eight GHMs driven by the bias-adjusted output of four general circulation models. The ensemble of potential changes of total runoff and groundwater recharge were calculated for two 30-year future periods relative to a reference period, analyzing annual and seasonal means as well as interannual variability. Moreover, the two representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and 8.5 were chosen to inform stakeholders about two possible courses of anthropogenic emissions.</p><p>To communicate the results to local stakeholders effectively, the way to present modeling results and their uncertainty is crucial. The visualization and textual/oral presentation should not be overwhelming but comprehensive, comprehensible and engaging. It should help the stakeholder to understand the likelihood of particular hazards that can be derived from multi-model ensemble projections. In this contribution, we present the communication approach we applied during a stakeholder workshop as well as its evaluation by the stakeholders.</p>

scholarly journals Analysis of Climate Change in the Area of Vojvodina-Republic of Serbia and Possible Consequences

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Andreja Borisov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Digital Terrain ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Digital Terrain Modeling ◽  
Nature And Society ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Linear Correlations

Climate change conditions a wide range of impacts such as the impact on weather, but also on ecosystems and biodiversity, agriculture and forestry, human health, hydrological regime and energy. In addition to global warming, local factors affecting climate change are being considered. Presentation and analysis of the situation was carried out using geoinformation technologies (radar recording, remote detection, digital terrain modeling, cartographic visualization and geostatistics). This paper describes methods and use of statistical indicators such as LST, NDVI and linear correlations from which it can be concluded that accelerated construction and global warming had an impact on climate change in period from 1987 to 2018 in the area of Vojvodina – Republic of Serbia. Also, using the global SRTM DEM, it is shown how the temperature behaves based on altitude change. Conclusions and possible consequences in nature and society were derived.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

Climate change impact chains in the water sector: observations from projects on the East India coast

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 216-232
Author(s):  
Sibylle Kabisch ◽  
Ronjon Chakrabarti ◽  
Till Wolf ◽  
Wilhelm Kiewitt ◽  
Ty Gorman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Causal Chain ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

With regional variations, climate change has a significant impact on water quality deterioration and scarcity, which are serious challenges in developing countries and emerging economies. Often, effective projects to improve water management in the light of climate change are difficult to develop because of the complex interrelations between direct and indirect climate impacts and local perceptions of vulnerabilities and needs. Adaptation projects can be developed through a combination of participatory, bottom-up needs assessments and top-down analyses. Climate change impact chains can help to display the causal chain of climate signals and resulting impacts and thereby establish a system map as a basis for stakeholder discussions. This article aims to develop specific climate change impact chains for the water management sector in rural coastal India that combine bottom-up and top-down perspectives. Case studies from Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, India, provide a basis for the impact chains developed. Bottom-up data were gathered through a vulnerability and needs assessment in 18 villages complemented with top-down research data. The article is divided into four steps: (1) system of interest; (2) data on climate change signals; (3) climate change impacts based on top-down as well as bottom-up information; (4) specific impact chains complemented by initial climate change adaptation options.

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