scholarly journals ENSO sensitivity to radiative forcing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evgeniya Predybaylo ◽  
Georgiy Stenchikov ◽  
Andrew Wittenberg ◽  
Sergey Osipov
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Eruption Magnitude

<p>To improve El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions and projections in a changing climate, it is essential to better understand ENSO’s sensitivities to external radiative forcings. Strong volcanic eruptions can help to clarify ENSO’s sensitivities, mechanisms, and feedbacks. Strong explosive volcanic eruptions inject millions of tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, where they are converted into sulfate aerosols. For equatorial volcanoes, these aerosols can spread globally, scattering and absorbing incoming sunlight, and inducing a global-mean surface cooling. Despite this global-mean cooling effect, paleo data confirm remarkable warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific in the two years after a tropical eruption, with a shift towards an El Niño-like state. To illuminate this response and explain why it tends to occur during particular seasons and ENSO phases, we present a unified framework that includes the roles of the seasonal cycle, stochastic wind forcing, eruption magnitude, and various tropical Pacific climate feedbacks. Analyzing over 20,000 years of large-ensemble simulations from the GFDL-CM2.1 climate model forced by volcanic eruptions, we find that the ENSO response comprises both stochastic and deterministic components, which vary depending on the perturbation season and the ocean preconditioning. For boreal winter eruptions, stochastic dispersion largely obscures the deterministic response, being the largest for the strong El Niño preconditioning. Deterministic El Niño-like responses to summer eruptions are well seen on neutral ENSO and weak to moderate El Niño preconditioning and grow with the eruption magnitude. The relative balance of these components determines the predictability and strength of the ENSO response. The results clarify why previous studies obtained seemingly conflicting results.</p>

Dependence of global monsoon response to volcanic eruptions on the background oceanic states

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng Zuo ◽  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
Wenmin Man
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Global Monsoon ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
Sst Anomalies

<p>Both proxy data and climate modeling show divergent responses of global monsoon precipitation to volcanic eruptions. The reason is however unknown. Here, based on analysis of the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble simulation, we show evidences that the divergent responses are dominated by the pre-eruption background oceanic states. We found that under El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral and warm phases initial conditions, the Pacific favors an El Niño-like anomaly after volcanic eruptions, while La Niña-like SST anomalies tend to occur following eruptions under ENSO cold phase initial condition, especially after southern eruptions. The cold initial condition is associated with stronger upper ocean temperature stratification and shallower thermocline over the eastern Pacific than normal. The easterly anomalies triggered by surface cooling over the tropical South America continent can generate changes in SST through anomalous advection and the ocean subsurface upwelling more efficiently, causing La Niña-like SST anomalies. Whereas under warm initial condition, the easterly anomalies fail to develop and the westerly anomalies still play a dominant role, thus forms an El Niño-like SST anomaly. Such SST response further regulates the monsoon precipitation changes through atmospheric teleconnection. The contribution of direct radiative forcing and indirect SST response to precipitation changes show regional differences, which will further affect the intensity and sign of precipitation response in submonsoon regions. Our results imply that attention should be paid to the background oceanic state when predicting the global monsoon precipitation responses to volcanic eruptions.</p>

scholarly journals Radiative and climate impacts of a large volcanic eruption during stratospheric sulfur geoengineering

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 305-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Laakso ◽  
H. Kokkola ◽  
A.-I. Partanen ◽  
U. Niemeier ◽  
C. Timmreck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Solar Radiation Management ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Both explosive volcanic eruptions, which emit sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, and stratospheric geoengineering via sulfur injections can potentially cool the climate by increasing the amount of scattering particles in the atmosphere. Here we employ a global aerosol-climate model and an Earth system model to study the radiative and climate changes occurring after an erupting volcano during solar radiation management (SRM). According to our simulations the radiative impacts of the eruption and SRM are not additive and the radiative effects and climate changes occurring after the eruption depend strongly on whether SRM is continued or suspended after the eruption. In the former case, the peak burden of the additional stratospheric sulfate as well as changes in global mean precipitation are fairly similar regardless of whether the eruption takes place in a SRM or non-SRM world. However, the maximum increase in the global mean radiative forcing caused by the eruption is approximately 21 % lower compared to a case when the eruption occurs in an unperturbed atmosphere. In addition, the recovery of the stratospheric sulfur burden and radiative forcing is significantly faster after the eruption, because the eruption during the SRM leads to a smaller number and larger sulfate particles compared to the eruption in a non-SRM world. On the other hand, if SRM is suspended immediately after the eruption, the peak increase in global forcing caused by the eruption is about 32 % lower compared to a corresponding eruption into a clean background atmosphere. In this simulation, only about one-third of the global ensemble-mean cooling occurs after the eruption, compared to that occurring after an eruption under unperturbed atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, the global cooling signal is seen only for the 12 months after the eruption in the former scenario compared to over 40 months in the latter. In terms of global precipitation rate, we obtain a 36 % smaller decrease in the first year after the eruption and again a clearly faster recovery in the concurrent eruption and SRM scenario, which is suspended after the eruption. We also found that an explosive eruption could lead to significantly different regional climate responses depending on whether it takes place during geoengineering or into an unperturbed background atmosphere. Our results imply that observations from previous large eruptions, such as Mount Pinatubo in 1991, are not directly applicable when estimating the potential consequences of a volcanic eruption during stratospheric geoengineering.

Climate model teleconnection patterns govern the Niño 3.4 response to early 19th century volcanism in coral-based data assimilation reconstructions

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-51
Author(s):  
Sara C. Sanchez ◽  
Gregory J. Hakim ◽  
Casey P. Saenger
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Model Bias ◽  
Early 19Th Century ◽  
Paleoclimate Data

AbstractScientific understanding of low-frequency tropical Pacific variability, especially responses to perturbations in radiative forcing, suffers from short observational records, sparse proxy networks, and bias in model simulations. Here, we combine the strengths of proxies and models through coral-based paleoclimate data assimilation. We combine coral archives (δ18O, Sr/Ca) with the dynamics, spatial teleconnections, and intervariable relationships of the CMIP5/PMIP3 Past1000 experiments using the Last Millennium Reanalysis data assimilation framework. This analysis creates skillful reconstructions of tropical Pacific temperatures over the observational era. However, during the period of intense volcanism in the early 19th century, southwestern Pacific corals produce El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reconstructions that are of opposite sign from those from eastern Pacific corals and tree ring records. We systematically evaluate the source of this discrepancy using 1) single-proxy experiments, 2) varied proxy system models (PSMs), and 3) diverse covariance patterns from the Past1000 simulations. We find that individual proxy records and coral PSMs do not significantly contribute to the discrepancy. However, following major eruptions, the southwestern Pacific corals locally record more persistent cold anomalies than found in the Past1000 experiments and canonical ENSO teleconnections to the southwest Pacific strongly control the reconstruction response. Furthermore, using covariance patterns independent of ENSO yield reconstructions consistent with coral archives across the Pacific. These results show that model bias can strongly affect how proxy information is processed in paleoclimate data assimilation. As we illustrate here, model bias influences the magnitude and persistence of the response of the tropical Pacific to volcanic eruptions.

Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manmeet Singh ◽  
Raghavan Krishnan ◽  
Bedartha Goswami ◽  
Ayantika Dey Choudhury ◽  
Swapna Panickal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Phase Synchronization ◽  
Indian Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Krakatoa Eruption

<p>The coupling between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Monsoon (IM) plays a significant role in the summer rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. In this study, we provide insights into the IM variability with regard to the degree of ENSO variability and radiative forcing from large volcanic eruptions (LVEs). Volcanic dust and gas injected into the stratosphere during major eruptions influence the ENSO from seasonal to interannual timescales. However, the effects of LVEs on the ENSO-IM coupling remain unclear. The relationship between ENSO and IM systems in the context of LVEs is examined using a panoply of datasets and advanced statistical analysis techniques in this study. We find that there is a significant enhancement of the phase-synchronization between ENSO and IM oscillations due to increase in angular frequency of ENSO in the last millennium. Twin surrogates-based statistical significance testing is also used to affirm this result and similar evidence is found in the combinations of 14 ENSO and 11 IM paleoclimate proxy records in the last millennium. Bayesian probabilities conditioned with and without LVEs show LVEs lead to a strong ENSO-IM phase-coupling, with the probabilities remaining higher till the fourth year from the eruption. A large-ensemble climate model experiment with and without the 1883 Krakatoa eruption is conducted using the IITM-ESM, and also with varied volcanic radiative forcing (VRF) depending on the evolved state of ENSO. The simulations show that LVEs force the ENSO-IM systems into a coupled state, and increase (decrease) in the VRF leads to an enhanced (decreased) probability of the phase synchronisation of ENSO-IM systems with a high chance of El Niño-IM drought in the year following the LVE. Our results promisingly pave a way not only for improving the seasonal monsoon prediction improvements but also for the regional impact assessment from the proposed geo-engineering activities over the South Asian region.</p>

scholarly journals Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Aubry ◽  
John Staunton-Sykes ◽  
Lauren R. Marshall ◽  
Jim Haywood ◽  
Nathan Luke Abraham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Column Height ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Eruptive Column ◽  
Column Dynamics

AbstractExplosive volcanic eruptions affect climate, but how climate change affects the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing remains unexplored. We combine an eruptive column model with an aerosol-climate model to show that the stratospheric aerosol optical depth perturbation from frequent moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Nabro 2011) will be reduced by 75% in a high-end warming scenario compared to today, a consequence of future tropopause height rise and unchanged eruptive column height. In contrast, global-mean radiative forcing, stratospheric warming and surface cooling from infrequent large-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Mt. Pinatubo 1991) will be exacerbated by 30%, 52 and 15% in the future, respectively. These changes are driven by an aerosol size decrease, mainly caused by the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and an increase in eruptive column height. Quantifying changes in both eruptive column dynamics and aerosol lifecycle is therefore key to assessing the climate response to future eruptions.

scholarly journals Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1037-1048 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Carlson ◽  
Rodrigo Caballero
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Cloud Albedo ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Lifetimes, Infrared Absorption Spectra, Radiative Forcings and Global Warming Potentials of NF<sub>3</sub> and CFC-115

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Totterdill ◽  
Tamás Kovács ◽  
Wuhu Feng ◽  
Sandip Dhomse ◽  
Christopher J. Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Infrared Absorption ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Atmospheric Window ◽  
Infrared Absorption Spectra ◽  
Global Warming Potentials ◽  
Good Agreement

Abstract. Fluorinated compounds such as NF3 and C2F5Cl (CFC-115) are characterised by very large global warming potentials (GWPs) which result from extremely long atmospheric lifetimes and strong infrared absorptions in the atmospheric window. In this study we have experimentally determined the infrared absorption cross-sections of NF3 and CFC-115, calculated the radiative forcing and efficiency using two radiative transfer models and identified the effect of clouds and stratospheric adjustment. The infrared cross sections are in good agreement with previous measurements, whereas the resulting radiative forcings and efficiencies are, on average, around 10 % larger. A whole atmosphere chemistry-climate model was used to determine the atmospheric lifetimes of NF3 and CFC-115 to be (616 ± 34) years and (492 ± 22) years, respectively. The GWPs for NF3 are estimated to be 14 600, 19 400 and 21 400 over 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively. Similarly, the GWPs for CFC-115 are 6120, 8060 and 8630 over 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively.

scholarly journals Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21<sup>st</sup> century

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
John A. Pyle
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Climatic Drivers ◽  
Ozone Precursor ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model. Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of −0.09 Wm−2. This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.07 Wm−2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is mainly driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of two (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario) is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.19 Wm−2, which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of tropospheric non-methane ozone precursor reductions. A third of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes) is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.06 Wm−2) for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (−0.07 Wm−2) for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes.

scholarly journals Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 6121-6139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
Douglas E. Kinnison ◽  
Alexandru Rap ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Oliver Wild ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Year 2000

Abstract. Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 ± 104 m Wm−2, (2) 163 ± 109 m Wm−2, and (3) 238 ± 113 m Wm−2 due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 ± 130 m Wm−2 relative to year 2000 and 760 ± 230 m Wm−2 relative to year 1750, with the 95 % confidence interval given by ±30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry–climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46 m Wm−2). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for ∼ 50 % of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000–2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Impact of biogenic hydrocarbons on tropospheric chemistry: results from a global chemistry-climate model

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 10517-10612 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. A. Folberth ◽  
D. A. Hauglustaine ◽  
J. Lathière ◽  
F. Brocheton
Keyword(s):  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Tropospheric Chemistry ◽  
Secondary Source ◽  
Peroxy Radicals ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. We present a description and evaluation of LMDz-INCA, a global three-dimensional chemistry-climate model, pertaining to its recently developed NMHC version. In this substantially extended version of the model a comprehensive representation of the photochemistry of non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) from biogenic, anthropogenic, and biomass-burning sources has been included. The tropospheric annual mean methane (9.2 years) and methylchloroform (5.5 years) chemical lifetimes are well within the range of previous modelling studies and are in excellent agreement with estimates established by means of global observations. The model provides a reasonable simulation of the horizontal and vertical distribution and seasonal cycle of CO and key non-methane VOC, such as acetone, methanol, and formaldehyde as compared to observational data from several ground stations and aircraft campaigns. LMDz-INCA in the NMHC version reproduces tropospheric ozone concentrations fairly well throughout most of the troposphere. The model is applied in several sensitivity studies of the biosphere-atmosphere photochemical feedback. The impact of surface emissions of isoprene, acetone, and methanol is studied. These experiments show a substantial impact of isoprene on tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide concentrations revealing an increase in surface O3 and CO levels of up to 30 ppbv and 60 ppbv, respectively. Isoprene also appears to significantly impact the global OH distribution resulting in a decrease of the global mean tropospheric OH concentration by approximately 0.9×105 molecules cm−3 or roughly 10% and an increase in the global mean tropospheric methane lifetime by approximately four months. A global mean ozone net radiative forcing due to the isoprene induced increase in the tropospheric ozone burden of 0.09W m−2 is found. The key role of isoprene photooxidation in the global tropospheric redistribution of NOx is demonstrated. LMDz-INCA calculates an increase of PAN surface mixing ratios ranging from 75 to 750 pptv and 10 to 250 pptv during northern hemispheric summer and winter, respectively. Acetone and methanol are found to play a significant role in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) budget of peroxy radicals. Calculations with LMDz-INCA show an increase in HOx concentrations region of 8 to 15% and 10 to 15% due to methanol and acetone biogenic surface emissions, respectively. The model has been used to estimate the global tropospheric CO budget. A global CO source of 3019 TgCO yr−1 is estimated. This source divides into a primary source of 1533 TgCO yr−1 and secondary source of 1489 TgCO yr−1 deriving from VOC photooxidation. Global VOC-to-CO conversion efficiencies of 90% for methane and between 20 and 45% for individual VOC are calculated by LMDz-INCA.

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