Drought terminations in the UK driven by high integrated vapour transport

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Parry ◽  
David Lavers ◽  
Rob Wilby ◽  
Paul Wood ◽  
Christel Prudhomme
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Coincidence Rate ◽  
Vapour Transport ◽  
The West ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Potential Link ◽  
Prevailing Direction ◽  
The Uk

<p>Whilst the hydroclimatic drivers of drought are well-established, the forces which lead to the termination of drought conditions are less well understood.  An enhanced knowledge of the associations between these phenomena and drought termination is an important prerequisite for more robust operational forecasting of the end of droughts, a phase which assumes critical importance during protracted droughts which can span multiple years and substantially deplete water resources.</p><p>The influence of high integrated vapour transport (IVT) on drought termination has been established in the western USA, and atmospheric rivers have been linked to the ending of droughts in the mid-latitudes including North America and Asia.  Whilst high IVT has been demonstrated to be influential in major flood events in western Europe, a potential link with drought termination has not previously been identified.</p><p>This study systematically identifies drought termination events in river flow reconstructions for 302 catchments in the UK spanning the 1900-2010 period, and assesses the correspondence with high IVT values extracted from the ERA-20C reanalysis dataset spanning the same period.  Event coincidence analysis is used to quantify this association, with the Precursor Coincidence Rate (PCR) assessing the likelihood of high IVT preceding drought termination, and the Trigger Coincidence Rate (TCR) considering how often high IVT leads to drought termination.</p><p>PCRs were moderate to high across most of the UK, indicating that in most catchments a majority of drought terminations are triggered by high IVT.  TCRs were highest in the west of the UK, suggesting that in these regions a majority of high IVT episodes during droughts lead to its termination.  The combination of prevailing direction of landfalling high IVT with upland, wet and responsive catchments in the west (and vice versa) was supported by regression analysis.  In addition to determining occurrence, high IVT was also found to be influential on the characteristics of drought termination.</p><p>Metrics of PCR and TCR have the potential to inform management decisions in drought-impacted catchments, quantifying the likelihood of termination in instances of forecast high IVT events.  The importance of establishing associations between high IVT and drought termination is underlined by the higher confidence in IVT forecasts than direct rainfall forecasts over certain medium-range lead times.</p>

scholarly journals Atmospheric Rivers and Associated Precipitation over France and Western Europe: 1980–2020 Climatology and Case Study

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1075
Author(s):  
Benjamin Doiteau ◽  
Meredith Dournaux ◽  
Nadège Montoux ◽  
Jean-Luc Baray
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
The West ◽  
Water Vapor Flux ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Vapor Flux ◽  
Atmospheric River ◽  
European Coast

Atmospheric rivers are important atmospheric features implicated in the global water vapor budget, the cloud distribution, and the associated precipitation. The ARiD (Atmospheric River Detector) code has been developed to automatically detect atmospheric rivers from water vapor flux and has been applied to the ECMWF ERA5 archive over the period 1980–2020 above the Atlantic Ocean and Europe. A case study of an atmospheric river formed in the East Atlantic on August 2014 that reached France has been detailed using ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis, ground based observation data, and satellite products such as DARDAR, AIRS, GPCP, and GOES. This atmospheric river event presents a strong interaction with an intense upper tropospheric jet stream, which induced stratosphere–troposphere exchanges by tropopause fold. A 1980–2020 climatology of atmospheric rivers over Europe has been presented. The west of France, Iberian Peninsula, and British Islands are the most impacted regions by atmospheric rivers with an occurrence of up to four days per month during the October–April period. Up to 40% of the precipitation observed on the west European coast can be linked to the presence of ARs. No significant trend in the occurrence of the phenomena was found over 1980–2020.

Searching for new Sources of growth. Are the Developing Countries Catching up with the Developed ones?

2015 ◽  
pp. 30-53
Author(s):  
V. Popov
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The West ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Divergence ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Relative Standing

This paper examines the trajectory of growth in the Global South. Before the 1500s all countries were roughly at the same level of development, but from the 1500s Western countries started to grow faster than the rest of the world and PPP GDP per capita by 1950 in the US, the richest Western nation, was nearly 5 times higher than the world average and 2 times higher than in Western Europe. Since 1950 this ratio stabilized - not only Western Europe and Japan improved their relative standing in per capita income versus the US, but also East Asia, South Asia and some developing countries in other regions started to bridge the gap with the West. After nearly half of the millennium of growing economic divergence, the world seems to have entered the era of convergence. The factors behind these trends are analyzed; implications for the future and possible scenarios are considered.

scholarly journals Rain Erosion Maps for Wind Turbines Based on Geographical Locations: A Case Study in Ireland and Britain

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Pugh ◽  
M. M. Stack
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Turbine Blades ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Wind Turbine Blades ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
The Uk

AbstractErosion rates of wind turbine blades are not constant, and they depend on many external factors including meteorological differences relating to global weather patterns. In order to track the degradation of the turbine blades, it is important to analyse the distribution and change in weather conditions across the country. This case study addresses rainfall in Western Europe using the UK and Ireland data to create a relationship between the erosion rate of wind turbine blades and rainfall for both countries. In order to match the appropriate erosion data to the meteorological data, 2 months of the annual rainfall were chosen, and the differences were analysed. The month of highest rain, January and month of least rain, May were selected for the study. The two variables were then combined with other data including hailstorm events and locations of wind turbine farms to create a general overview of erosion with relation to wind turbine blades.

scholarly journals Against management: Auto-critique

Organization ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 135050842110209
Author(s):  
Martin Parker
Keyword(s):  
Business School ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Business Schools ◽  
The Uk ◽  
North Western ◽  
Made In ◽  
Highly Cited

In this review I consider the 20 years that have passed since the publication of my book Against Management. I begin by locating it in the context of the expanding business schools of the UK in the 1990s, and the growth of CMS in north western Europe. After positioning the book within its time, and noting that the book is now simultaneously highly cited and irrelevant, I then explore the arguments I made in the final chapter. If the book is of interest for the next two decades, it because it gestures towards the importance of alternative forms of organization, which I continue to maintain are not reducible to ‘management’. Given the intensifying crises of climate, ecology, inequality and democracy, developing alternatives must be understood as the historical task of CMS within the business school and I propose a ten-point manifesto in support of that commitment.

scholarly journals From east to west, can feminist legal strategies be transformative? Post-disaster to everyday times of crisis

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-268
Author(s):  
Jane Krishnadas
Keyword(s):  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Field Research ◽  
Community Relations ◽  
Access To Justice ◽  
The West ◽  
Legal Subject ◽  
Agents Of Change ◽  
Legal Strategies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Post Disaster

AbstractThis article engages with a key question raised by feminist legal scholars from the east to the west: whether women should or should not engage in rights strategies? Are rights systematically exercised to reproduce patriarchal, dominant sites of justice, or do rights constitute a multiple and relational force which may transform sites of justice? The experience of women’s engagements with law in South Asia has created a diversity of critical legal knowledge and scholarship reflecting the pluralism of both women’s identities and needs based on caste, religion, class and sexuality across an array of legal spaces from the family, community and state. Women in South Asian scholarship have complicated the notion of the homogenous legal subject and the static dominant site of justice. In this article I return to my underpinning field research whilst living and working within an earthquake affected area of Maharashtra, India in the post-crisis rehabilitation period (1993–1998). This research explored how women exercised their rights to reconstruct lives at different tiers of justice: in public policy, private legislation and the non-formal sphere of community relations to deconstruct the concept of rights existing within a static framework of justice. Drawing upon feminist discourse across the east to the west, I have analysed the role of rights in post-disaster sites to understand how women move from victims to survivors, beneficiaries to contributors and objects to agents of change to inform contemporary research on how women in post-domestic violence situations may exercise rights to reconstruct their lives in times of crisis in the UK. Through this analysis I argue that rights may be empowering if one can exercise one’s right to identity as agency, resources as capacity and location as mobility, as a three dimensional strategy to transform the framework in which one is situated. Over the last decade, I have actively applied this transformative methodology to create an alternative relational, intersectional and holistic legal paradigm, to transform sites of justice, in times of every day crisis, through the CLOCK/ All India Access to Justice Strategy.

scholarly journals Public Interest in Knee Pain and Knee Replacement during the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in Western Europe

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1067
Author(s):  
Arne Kienzle ◽  
Lara Biedermann ◽  
Evgeniya Babeyko ◽  
Stephanie Kirschbaum ◽  
Georg Duda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Knee Osteoarthritis ◽  
Knee Pain ◽  
Knee Replacement ◽  
Knee Arthroplasty ◽  
Public Interest ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Surgical Care ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Primary Knee Arthroplasty ◽  
The Uk

Due to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, a large number of elective knee replacement procedures had to be postponed in both early and late 2020 in most western countries including Germany and the UK. It is unknown how public interest and demand for total knee arthroplasties was affected. Public interest in knee pain, knee osteoarthritis and knee arthroplasty in Germany and the UK was investigated using Google Trend Analysis. In addition, we monitored for changes in patient composition in our outpatient department. As of early March in Germany and of late March in the UK, until the lockdown measures, a 50 to 60% decrease in relative search frequency was observed in all categories investigated compared to the beginning of the year. While public interest for knee pain rapidly recovered, decreased interest for knee osteoarthritis and replacement lasted until the easing of measures. Shortly prior to and during the first lockdown mean search frequency for knee replacement was significantly decreased from 39.7% and 36.6 to 26.9% in Germany and from 47.7% and 50.9 to 23.7% in the UK (Germany: p = 0.022 prior to lockdown, p < 0.001 during lockdown; UK: p < 0.0001 prior to and during lockdown). In contrast, mean search frequencies did not differ significantly from each other for any of the investigated time frames during the second half of 2020 in both countries. Similarly, during the first lockdown, the proportion of patients presenting themselves to receive primary knee arthroplasty compared to patients that had already undergone knee replacement declined markedly from 64.7% to 46.9%. In contrast, patient composition changed only marginally during the lockdown measures in late 2020 in both Germany and the UK. We observed a high level of public interest in knee arthroplasty despite the ongoing pandemic. The absence of a lasting decline in interest in primary knee arthroplasty suggests that sufficient symptom reduction cannot be achieved without surgical care for a substantial number of patients.

Family Structure and Proto-industrialization in Russia

1980 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard L. Rudolph
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Development ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Good Deal ◽  
Household Structure ◽  
Marriage Pattern ◽  
The West ◽  
Unfree Labor ◽  
Family And Household ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
Previous Existence

The experience of Russia is examined to establish whether the area underwent a process of proto-industrialization comparable to that found in Western Europe. It is argued that the process did take place in this region, even with unfree labor, and served as the basis for much later industrial development. It is also argued that the Russian case differed a good deal from that found in the West. The major factors operating to make the pattern different include the previous existence of the “non- European” marriage pattern, marked differences in family and household structure, the relative immobility of labor, and the degree to which there were half-peasant, half-manufacturing households that dominated much of manufacture.

scholarly journals A Climatology of 500-hPa Closed Lows in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean, 1948–2011

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (6) ◽  
pp. 1578-1592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina S. Oakley ◽  
Kelly T. Redmond
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
West Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Western United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Northeastern Pacific

AbstractThe northeastern Pacific Ocean is a preferential location for the formation of closed low pressure systems. These slow-moving, quasi-barotropic systems influence vertical stability and sustain a moist environment, giving them the potential to produce or affect sustained precipitation episodes along the west coast of the United States. They can remain motionless or change direction and speed more than once and thus often pose difficult forecast challenges. This study creates an objective climatological description of 500-hPa closed lows to assess their impacts on precipitation in the western United States and to explore interannual variability and preferred tracks. Geopotential height at 500 hPa from the NCEP–NCAR global reanalysis dataset was used at 6-h and 2.5° × 2.5° resolution for the period 1948–2011. Closed lows displayed seasonality and preferential durations. Time series for seasonal and annual event counts were found to exhibit strong interannual variability. Composites of the tracks of landfalling closed lows revealed preferential tracks as the features move inland over the western United States. Correlations of seasonal event totals for closed lows with ENSO indices, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern suggested an above-average number of events during the warm phase of ENSO and positive PDO and PNA phases. Precipitation at 30 U.S. Cooperative Observer stations was attributed to closed-low events, suggesting 20%–60% of annual precipitation along the West Coast may be associated with closed lows.

scholarly journals Assessment of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Reforecasts of the Occurrence, Intensity, and Location of Atmospheric Rivers along the West Coast of North America

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (10) ◽  
pp. 3343-3362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle M. Nardi ◽  
Elizabeth A. Barnes ◽  
F. Martin Ralph
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
North America ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
The West ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Landfall Location

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs)—narrow corridors of high atmospheric water vapor transport—occur globally and are associated with flooding and maintenance of the water supply. Therefore, it is important to improve forecasts of AR occurrence and characteristics. Although prior work has examined the skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in forecasting atmospheric rivers, these studies only cover several years of reforecasts from a handful of models. Here, we expand this previous work and assess the performance of 10–30 years of wintertime (November–February) AR landfall reforecasts from the control runs of nine operational weather models, obtained from the International Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Project database. Model errors along the west coast of North America at leads of 1–14 days are examined in terms of AR occurrence, intensity, and landfall location. Occurrence-based skill approaches that of climatology at 14 days, while models are, on average, more skillful at shorter leads in California, Oregon, and Washington compared to British Columbia and Alaska. We also find that the average magnitude of landfall integrated water vapor transport (IVT) error stays fairly constant across lead times, although overprediction of IVT is common at later lead times. Finally, we show that northward landfall location errors are favored in California, Oregon, and Washington, although southward errors occur more often than expected from climatology. These results highlight the need for model improvements, while helping to identify factors that cause model errors.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1983 ◽  
Vol 106 ◽  
pp. 26-38
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
West Germany ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Minor Extent

The recovery in the OECD area gathered pace in the second quarter, when its total GDP probably increased by as much as 1 per cent. The rise was, however, heavily concentrated in North America and particularly the US. There may well have been a slight fall in Western Europe, where the level of industrial production hardly changed and increases in gross product in West Germany and, to a minor extent, in France were outweighed by falls in Italy and (according to the expenditure measure) the UK.

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