A Climate Model Structural Behavior Under Different Forcing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuele Russo ◽  
Bijan Fallah ◽  
Christoph Raible
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Model Stability ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Orbital Configuration ◽  
Climate Forcings ◽  
The One ◽  
Parameters Perturbation

<div>In this study the COSMO-CLM sensitivity to parameters perturbation is investigated under different climate forcings. The main aim is to understand</div><div>how the uncertainty of the model propagates in different climate regimes and whether the model presents structural stability when different forcings are considered. For this purpose, two Physically Perturbed Ensembles (PPEs) are produced, each composed of 35 realizations, at two different periods of the past: the Mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago, and the Pre-industrial period. The two periods present significant differences in the seasonal values of incoming insolation due to changes in the Earth’s orbital configuration. The effects of these changes on the Earth’s radiative balance, at least when considering seasonal values, are of the same magnitude of the changes due to GHGs emissions of the worst case Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5). Two additional ensembles, but with a lower number of components, are produced in order to determine the role of the boundaries with respect to the one of changes in the climate forcings.</div><div>Preliminary analyses show that the model presents a structurally stable behavior in the two periods for several variables, in particular when considering climate mean statistics. Some parameters do not produce sensible changes in the model behavior in both periods. This confirms that conducting a calibration of the model only on a restricted set of parameters is a good praxis when willing to simulate future or past climate change. On the other hand, some parameters show remarkable changes with respect to a reference simulation: these differences are maintained in the two different regimes, pointing again to a relatively good model stability, but also to a very similar sensitivity of the model to the different forcings. Finally, when considering the ensembles with the same forcings but different boundaries, the effect of the boundaries seems to play a major role. This is particularly important for climate projections using the COSMO-CLM: a model PPE would probably not be particularly relevant in order to characterize the model uncertainty, but more attention should instead be paid to consider a wide ensemble of independent boundary realizations with different GCMs</div>

Impact of Climate Change on Apricot Yield in Turkey in the Near Future

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Tufan Turp ◽  
Nazan An ◽  
Gökhan Özertan ◽  
M. Levent Kurnaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Prunus Armeniaca ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Black Sea Region ◽  
Main Producer

<p>Apricot (<em>Prunus armeniaca</em> L.) is one of the most important export crops in Turkey and Turkey is the leader for both fresh and dried apricots production in the world. Apricot can be grown in all regions of Turkey with climate and vegetation diversities, except in the Eastern Black Sea Region and in the high plateaus of the East Anatolian Region. Malatya is the main producer province, which has good ecological and soil conditions in terms of apricot cultivation with the highest quality in Turkey. However, it is possible to talk about irregularities and decreases in apricot yield due to climate change in the region. Therefore, this study aims to observe climate change impacts on apricot yield in the main producer city, Malatya. Hereunder, climate projections were made at a 10 km horizontal resolution for the future period of 2021-2050 under the “worst-case” scenario (RCP8.5) using a regional climate model (RegCM4.4) for Malatya province considering 13 sub-regions. A statistical model, panel data method-multiple regression model, is designed to observe the effect of climate change and variability on the yield. Results indicate that adverse impacts of climate change on biological development of apricot lead to production irregularities and significant losses in yield in Malatya.</p><p> </p><p>Acknowledgement: This research has been supported by Boğaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 16763.</p>

Note on Selection of Coordinate Systems for Geodynamics

1975 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 395-407
Author(s):  
S. Henriksen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
The Other ◽  
Coordinate Systems ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The One ◽  
Static Systems ◽  
Selection Of

The first question to be answered, in seeking coordinate systems for geodynamics, is: what is geodynamics? The answer is, of course, that geodynamics is that part of geophysics which is concerned with movements of the Earth, as opposed to geostatics which is the physics of the stationary Earth. But as far as we know, there is no stationary Earth – epur sic monere. So geodynamics is actually coextensive with geophysics, and coordinate systems suitable for the one should be suitable for the other. At the present time, there are not many coordinate systems, if any, that can be identified with a static Earth. Certainly the only coordinate of aeronomic (atmospheric) interest is the height, and this is usually either as geodynamic height or as pressure. In oceanology, the most important coordinate is depth, and this, like heights in the atmosphere, is expressed as metric depth from mean sea level, as geodynamic depth, or as pressure. Only for the earth do we find “static” systems in use, ana even here there is real question as to whether the systems are dynamic or static. So it would seem that our answer to the question, of what kind, of coordinate systems are we seeking, must be that we are looking for the same systems as are used in geophysics, and these systems are dynamic in nature already – that is, their definition involvestime.

Potential of Palm Oil Empty Fruit Bunch as Biogas Substrate

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-64
Author(s):  
Vincentius Vincentius ◽  
Evita H. Legowo ◽  
Irvan S. Kartawiria
Keyword(s):  
Palm Oil ◽  
Fermentation Process ◽  
Biogas Production ◽  
Wastewater Sludge ◽  
Empty Fruit Bunch ◽  
Alternative Source ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The One ◽  
Wet Fermentation ◽  
Water Ratio

Natural gas is a source of energy that comes from the earth which is depleting every day, an alternative source of energy is needed and one of the sources comes from biogas. There is an abundance of empty fruit bunch (EFB) that comes from palm oil plantation that can become a substrate for biogas production. A methodology of fermentation based on Verein Deutscher Ingenieure was used to utilize EFB as a substrate to produce biogas using biogas sludge and wastewater sludge as inoculum in wet fermentation process under mesophilic condition. Another optimization was done by adding a different water ratio to the inoculum mixture. In 20 days, an average of 6gr from 150gr of total EFB used in each sample was consumed by the microbes. The best result from 20 days of experiment with both biogas sludge and wastewater sludge as inoculum were the one added with 150gr of water that produced 2910ml and 2185ml of gas respectively. The highest CH 4 produced achieved from biogas sludge and wastewater sludge with an addition of 150gr of water to the inoculum were 27% and 22% CH 4 respectively. This shows that biogas sludge is better in term of volume of gas that is produced and CH percentage.

Global Warming and Its Multiple Causes

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Romdhane Ben Slama
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Effect ◽  
Infrared Radiation ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The One ◽  
Heat Released ◽  
Emission Of Greenhouse Gases

The global warming which preoccupies humanity, is still considered to be linked to a single cause which is the emission of greenhouse gases, CO2 in particular. In this article, we try to show that, on the one hand, the greenhouse effect (the radiative imprisonment to use the scientific term) took place in conjunction with the infrared radiation emitted by the earth. The surplus of CO2 due to the combustion of fossil fuels, but also the surplus of infrared emissions from artificialized soils contribute together or each separately,  to the imbalance of the natural greenhouse effect and the trend of global warming. In addition, another actor acting directly and instantaneously on the warming of the ambient air is the heat released by fossil fuels estimated at 17415.1010 kWh / year inducing a rise in temperature of 0.122 ° C, or 12.2 ° C / century.

Dombey and Son

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Dickens ◽  
Dennis Walder
Keyword(s):  
Family Relationships ◽  
The Sun ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Future ◽  
Original Illustrations ◽  
The One

Dombey and Son ... Those three words conveyed the one idea of Mr. Dombey's life. The earth was made for Dombey and Son to trade in, and the sun and moon were made to give them light.' The hopes of Mr Dombey for the future of his shipping firm are centred on his delicate son Paul, and Florence, his devoted daughter, is unloved and neglected. When the firm faces ruin, and Dombey's second marriage ends in disaster, only Florence has the strength and humanity to save her father from desolate solitude. This new edition contains Dickens's prefaces, his working plans, and all the original illustrations by ‘Phiz’. The text is that of the definitive Clarendon edition. It has been supplemented by a wide-ranging Introduction, highlighting Dickens's engagement with his times, and the touching exploration of family relationships which give the novel added depth and relevance.

scholarly journals Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 483
Author(s):  
Ümit Yıldırım ◽  
Cüneyt Güler ◽  
Barış Önol ◽  
Michael Rode ◽  
Seifeddine Jomaa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Distributed Process ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Se Turkey

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model. The effect of climate change on the discharge of the Alata River Basin in Mersin province (Turkey) was assessed under the worst-case climate change scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), using the semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). First, the model was evaluated temporally and spatially and has been shown to reproduce the measured discharge consistently. Second, the discharge was predicted under climate projections in three distinct future periods (i.e., 2021–2040, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, reflecting the beginning, middle and end of the century, respectively). Climate change projections showed that the annual mean temperature in the Alata River Basin rises for the beginning, middle and end of the century, with about 1.35, 2.13 and 4.11 °C, respectively. Besides, the highest discharge timing seems to occur one month earlier (February instead of March) compared to the baseline period (2000–2011) in the beginning and middle of the century. The results show a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature in all future projections, resulting in more snowmelt and higher discharge generation in the beginning and middle of the century scenarios. However, at the end of the century, the discharge significantly decreased due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced snow depth in the upstream area. The findings of this study can help develop efficient climate change adaptation options in the Levant’s coastal areas.

scholarly journals Practices of sustainability and the enactment of their natures/cultures: Ecosystem services, rights of nature, and geoengineering

2021 ◽  
pp. 053901842199894
Author(s):  
Frank Adloff ◽  
Iris Hilbrich
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Knowledge Cultures ◽  
Rights Of Nature ◽  
Value Of Nature ◽  
The One ◽  
And Control

Possible trajectories of sustainability are based on different concepts of nature. The article starts out from three trajectories of sustainability (modernization, transformation and control) and reconstructs one characteristic practice for each path with its specific conceptions of nature. The notion that nature provides human societies with relevant ecosystem services is typical of the path of modernization. Nature is reified and monetarized here, with regard to its utility for human societies. Practices of transformation, in contrast, emphasize the intrinsic ethical value of nature. This becomes particularly apparent in discourses on the rights of nature, whose starting point can be found in Latin American indigenous discourses, among others. Control practices such as geoengineering are based on earth-systemic conceptions of nature, in which no distinction is made between natural and social systems. The aim is to control the earth system as a whole in order for human societies to remain viable. Practices of sustainability thus show different ontological understandings of nature (dualistic or monistic) on the one hand and (implicit) ethics and sacralizations (anthropocentric or biocentric) on the other. The three reconstructed natures/cultures have different ontological and ethical affinities and conflict with each other. They are linked to very different knowledge cultures and life-worlds, which answer very differently to the question of what is of value in a society and in nature and how these values ought to be protected.

scholarly journals Applicability of NGGM near-real time simulations in flood detection

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-126
Author(s):  
A. F. Purkhauser ◽  
J. A. Koch ◽  
R. Pail
Keyword(s):  
European Space Agency ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Future Mission ◽  
Space Agency ◽  
Flood Detection ◽  
The One ◽  
Real Time Simulations ◽  
Grace Mission ◽  
Gravity Mission

Abstract The GRACE mission has demonstrated a tremendous potential for observing mass changes in the Earth system from space for climate research and the observation of climate change. Future mission should on the one hand extend the already existing time series and also provide higher spatial and temporal resolution that is required to fulfil all needs placed on a future mission. To analyse the applicability of such a Next Generation Gravity Mission (NGGM) concept regarding hydrological applications, two GRACE-FO-type pairs in Bender formation are analysed. The numerical closed loop simulations with a realistic noise assumption are based on the short arc approach and make use of the Wiese approach, enabling a self-de-aliasing of high-frequency atmospheric and oceanic signals, and a NRT approach for a short latency. Numerical simulations for future gravity mission concepts are based on geophysical models, representing the time-variable gravity field. First tests regarding the usability of the hydrology component contained in the Earth System Model (ESM) by the European Space Agency (ESA) for the analysis regarding a possible flood monitoring and detection showed a clear signal in a third of the analysed flood cases. Our analysis of selected cases found that detection of floods was clearly possible with the reconstructed AOHIS/HIS signal in 20% of the tested examples, while in 40% of the cases a peak was visible but not clearly recognisable.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of projected climate impacts to climate model weighting: multi-sector analysis in eastern Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 164 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Seshagiri Rao Kolusu ◽  
Christian Siderius ◽  
Martin C. Todd ◽  
Ajay Bhave ◽  
Declan Conway ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Systematic Effect ◽  
Risk Profiles ◽  
Model Weighting

AbstractUncertainty in long-term projections of future climate can be substantial and presents a major challenge to climate change adaptation planning. This is especially so for projections of future precipitation in most tropical regions, at the spatial scale of many adaptation decisions in water-related sectors. Attempts have been made to constrain the uncertainty in climate projections, based on the recognised premise that not all of the climate models openly available perform equally well. However, there is no agreed ‘good practice’ on how to weight climate models. Nor is it clear to what extent model weighting can constrain uncertainty in decision-relevant climate quantities. We address this challenge, for climate projection information relevant to ‘high stakes’ investment decisions across the ‘water-energy-food’ sectors, using two case-study river basins in Tanzania and Malawi. We compare future climate risk profiles of simple decision-relevant indicators for water-related sectors, derived using hydrological and water resources models, which are driven by an ensemble of future climate model projections. In generating these ensembles, we implement a range of climate model weighting approaches, based on context-relevant climate model performance metrics and assessment. Our case-specific results show the various model weighting approaches have limited systematic effect on the spread of risk profiles. Sensitivity to climate model weighting is lower than overall uncertainty and is considerably less than the uncertainty resulting from bias correction methodologies. However, some of the more subtle effects on sectoral risk profiles from the more ‘aggressive’ model weighting approaches could be important to investment decisions depending on the decision context. For application, model weighting is justified in principle, but a credible approach should be very carefully designed and rooted in robust understanding of relevant physical processes to formulate appropriate metrics.

scholarly journals Analysis of the robustness of a steel frame structure with composite floors subject to multiple fire scenarios

2021 ◽  
pp. 136943322199249
Author(s):  
Riza Suwondo ◽  
Lee Cunningham ◽  
Martin Gillie ◽  
Colin Bailey
Keyword(s):  
Progressive Collapse ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Steel Structure ◽  
Frame Structure ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Collapse Resistance ◽  
Fire Scenarios ◽  
Element Approach ◽  
The One ◽  
Steel Frame Structure

This study presents robustness analyses of a three-dimensional multi-storey composite steel structure under the action of multiple fire scenarios. The main objective of the work is to improve current understanding of the collapse resistance of this type of building under different fire situations. A finite element approach was adopted with the model being firstly validated against previous studies available in the literature. The modelling approach was then used to investigate the collapse resistance of the structure for the various fire scenarios examined. Different sizes of fire compartment are considered in this study, starting from one bay, three bays and lastly the whole ground floor as the fire compartment. The investigation allows a fundamental understanding of load redistribution paths and member interactions when local failure occurs. It is concluded that the robustness of the focussed building in a fire is considerably affected by the size of fire compartments as well as fire location. The subject building can resist progressive collapse when the fire occurs only in the one-bay compartment. On the other hand, total collapse occurs when fire is located in the edge three-bay case. This shows that more than one fire scenario needs to be taken into consideration to ensure that a structure of this type can survive from collapse in the worst-case situation.

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