A Study on the Operation of Early Warning System for Heat Waves in Gwangju Based on the Urban Climatic Environment Assessment Model System

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byoungchull Oh ◽  
Cheolho Hwang ◽  
Won-tae Yun ◽  
Jongha Kim
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Model System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Environment Assessment ◽  
Climatic Environment ◽  
The City

<p>Damages in cities resulting from climate change are made irregularly and untypically, thus difficult to predict due to heavily concentrated buildings and population, etc. This study aims to introduce the results of our Urban Climatic Environment Assessment Model System(Model System hereinafter) as well as its construction, which is designed to provide impact assessment of heat waves in cities, to reduce damages, and to build capacities against it.</p><p>Our Model System is based on the Unified Model(UM : an integrated model of Korea Meteorological Administration), and satellite data is necessary to verify the Model System. However, we have developed high resolution (10m ~ 100m) urban assessment model to analyze the impacts of heat waves in city of Gwangju to help local government by developing and implementing environmental policies. The outputs of our Model System will contribute to the decision making.</p><p>Following two approaches were considered for impact assesment. Firstly, high spatial resolution model (in 10m to 100m level) using ensemble and down-scaling techniques can help identification of vulnerable areas in the city. Also, analyzed data can be linked to local GIS and land use map for analysis and assessment of the heat waves, which enables to make 48h heat wave forecast.</p><p>Secondly, CFD micro-scale analysis using super-computer enables to analyze the vulnerable areas with components of : temperature, wind, humidity, solar radiation quantity, cloud cover, etc. Data achieved via our Model System will be used as objective and scientific basis for developing heat wave policies. It will also give guidance for heat wave early warning.</p><p>It is expected that local governments can utilize our Model System to identify and analyze patterns and characteristics of heat waves in the city, and make decisions and develop environment-related policies on the objective and scientific basis preemptive response for vulnerable areas in the region.</p><p>Keywords : heat waves, Urban Climatic Environment Assessment Model System, spatial resolution, ensemble average, down-scaling, CFD, micro-scale, Early warning system</p><p> </p><p>* This research was supported by a grant from Research Program funded by International Climate & Environment Center(ICEC).</p>

scholarly journals Wastewater-based Epidemiology – Possible Approach for the Prevalence Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 in the Population

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nada Krivonakova ◽  
Andrea Soltysova ◽  
Michal Tamas ◽  
Zdenko Takac ◽  
Ján Krahulec ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Wastewater Treatment Plants ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Statistical Dependence ◽  
Local Site ◽  
Viral Particles ◽  
The City ◽  
Death Cases

Abstract COVID-19 pandemic caused by β-coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerges to intensive scientific research and monitoring of wastewaters because of their possible important role in identifying and early warning of a spread of the virus in the community. In our study, we investigated the prevalence of the COVID-19 disease in the population of the capital city of Slovakia, Bratislava, based on wastewater monitoring from September 2020 until March 2021. Samples were analyzed from two major wastewater treatment plants of the city with reaching nearly 0.6 million monitored inhabitants. Obtained results from the wastewater analysis suggest significant statistical dependence. High correlations between the number of viral particles in wastewater and the number of reported positive nasopharyngeal RT-qPCR tests of infected individuals with a time lag of 2 weeks / 12 days (R2 = 83.78% / R2 = 52.65%) as well as with a reported number of death cases with a time lag of 4 weeks / 27 days (R2 = 83.21% / R2 = 61.89%) was observed. The obtained results and subsequent mathematical modeling will serve in the future as an early warning system for the occurrence of a local site of infection and, at the same time, predict the load on the health system up to two weeks in advance.

scholarly journals Hotels contingency assessment in Padang city against coastal hazard

2018 ◽  
Vol 229 ◽  
pp. 02015
Author(s):  
Giani Ananda ◽  
Taufika Ophiyandri ◽  
Abdul Hakam
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Coastal Hazard ◽  
Public Buildings ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Analytic Methods ◽  
Evacuation Route ◽  
The City

Padang city has a variety of regions including coastal. The city of Padang is very vulnerable to coastal disaster (Coastal Hazard). In response to these statements, it is necessary to optimize the Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) for contingencies against coastal hazard referring to the four major components of MHEWS according to UNISDR. Hotels are kind of many public buildings that may be used as shelters. The purpose of this study is to assess the hotel contingencies in Padang city against coastal hazard. To achieve the goal, some near the beach hotels have been selected as the object of research. The selected hotels are five of four-star hotels, one of one-star hotel, and three for two-star hotels. The research results are processed by qualitative and quantitative analytic methods. The assessment then concludes that contingency afford is effected by the level hotel star. The important things that need to be planned for the hotel contingency against the coastal hazard are the evacuation route map and the signs of evacuation direction in the easy place to find.

Hazard assessment of landslide-prone areas on highly weathered dunite rock in Bello Oriente, Medellín, Colombia (Project Inform@Risk)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamara Breuninger ◽  
Moritz Gamperl ◽  
Kurosch Thuro
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Informal Settlements ◽  
The North ◽  
The Andes ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Landslide Early Warning ◽  
Steep Slopes ◽  
The City

<p>The project Inform@Risk, a collaboration of German and Colombian Universities and Institutes funded by the German government, aims to install a landslide early warning system in the informal settlements in Medellín, Colombia. In the recent past the city has suffered from multiple landslides, some of them with up to 500 casualties. The informal settlements in the steep slopes at the city borders grow rapidly, which destabilizes the ground and complicates the installation and operation of an early warning system. Therefore, key goal of the project is to include the community in the process of the development of the early warning system.</p><p>Medellín is embedded in the Aburrá Valley in the Cordillera Central of the Andes. The region around the city consists of different triassic and cretaceous metamorphic rocks and magmatic batholites and plutonites. Especially the north-eastern slope is prone to landslides, as it is very steep and made up of a deep cover of soil over highly weathered dunite rock.</p><p>During the first field trip, carried out in August 2019, former landslide areas were located, and ERT-measurements were conducted at the study site Bello Oriente in the northeast of Medellín. After a first evaluation of the findings, the soil cover seems to be over 50 m high in the middle of the slope, which indicates a deep-seated landslide, that might have been moving downhill very slowly for thousands of years. The more dangerous landslides however, which are much faster, are the shallow ones on the surface. These landslides can appear on top of each other and are distributed across the whole study area but are most concentrated between and above the last houses of the barrio. During a second field campaign in 2020, the ERT-profiles will be calibrated and complemented by drillings and the hazard map will be completed accordingly.</p>

Analysis and prediction of eutrophication for advanced warning of the water quality concerns in Gaoyou Lake

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 186-196
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Yu Cheng ◽  
Yulong Niu ◽  
Jiahu Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Trophic Level Index

Abstract This paper used the trophic level index (TLI) method combined with the relevant data from 2014 to 2017 to evaluate the water quality of Gaoyou Lake. Meanwhile, based on principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models on chlorophyll a (Chla), this research developed predictions and an early warning scheme for eutrophication in Gaoyou Lake. The results showed the following: 1. The TLI of Gaoyou Lake showed a significant increasing trend, and the lake was in the state of light to moderate eutrophy. 2. According to the PCA eigenvalues that were greater than 1, principal components (PCs) with a cumulative contribution rate of 76.04% were obtained, and a linear model was further obtained: CChla = 6.146 + 1.209 (Score 1) + 0.583 (Score 2) + 1.095 (Score 3). 3. The credibility of the early warning system reached 75%, which met the requirements of this study. This study provides a scientific basis for the control of eutrophication and improvement of water quality.

Controlling taste and odour events for the city of Philadelphia, USA: a case study

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. H. (Mel) Suffet ◽  
Gary Burlingame ◽  
Erin Mackey
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Consumer Complaints ◽  
Chlorine Disinfection ◽  
Drinking Waters ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
The City

The overall goal of this case study is to describe the history and present methods that the Philadelphia Water Department (PWD) uses to address its on-going earthy and musty drinking water T&O problems. The Philadelphia Water Department has developed a baseline for its water's aesthetic qualities since the early 1980’s. Philadelphia feels it has sufficient resources to control taste and odour problems. However, when directly asked, only 61–64% of the consumers are satisfied with the taste and odour of Philadelphia's drinking waters. A taste and odour early warning system is being developed for the two drinking water sources, the Delaware and Schuylkill rivers. Secondly, routine T&O panels and chemical analysis of geosmin and MIB are completed. Since the year 2000, 10 ng/L has become an early warning wake-up call for PWD. When higher levels are observed, testing is a priority, the source of the T&O is investigated and consumer complaints are monitored carefully. Present water treatment plants are conventional with chlorine disinfection, coagulation/sedimentation, rapid dual media filtration and final chloramination. The PWD uses powdered activated carbon, river water bypass and hydraulic changes in the distribution system to minimise odour events.

scholarly journals Defining and Predicting Heat Waves in Bangladesh

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (10) ◽  
pp. 2653-2670 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Nissan ◽  
Katrin Burkart ◽  
Erin Coughlan de Perez ◽  
Maarten Van Aalst ◽  
Simon Mason
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
Westerly Winds ◽  
Additive Regression Model ◽  
Additive Regression ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Moisture Conditions

AbstractThis paper proposes a heat-wave definition for Bangladesh that could be used to trigger preparedness measures in a heat early warning system (HEWS) and explores the climate mechanisms associated with heat waves. A HEWS requires a definition of heat waves that is both related to human health outcomes and forecastable. No such definition has been developed for Bangladesh. Using a generalized additive regression model, a heat-wave definition is proposed that requires elevated minimum and maximum daily temperatures over the 95th percentile for 3 consecutive days, confirming the importance of nighttime conditions for health impacts. By this definition, death rates increase by about 20% during heat waves; this result can be used as an argument for public-health interventions to prevent heat-related deaths. Furthermore, predictability of these heat waves exists from weather to seasonal time scales, offering opportunities for a range of preparedness measures. Heat waves are associated with an absence of normal premonsoonal rainfall brought about by anomalously strong low-level westerly winds and weak southerlies, detectable up to approximately 10 days in advance. This circulation pattern occurs over a background of drier-than-normal conditions, with below-average soil moisture and precipitation throughout the heat-wave season from April to June. Low soil moisture increases the odds of heat-wave occurrence for 10–30 days, indicating that subseasonal forecasts of heat-wave risk may be possible by monitoring soil-moisture conditions.

scholarly journals Centinela: an early warning system for the water quality of the Cauca River

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1409-1424 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Vélez ◽  
Leonardo Alfonso ◽  
Arlex Sánchez ◽  
Alberto Galvis ◽  
Gilberto Sepúlveda
Keyword(s):  
Water Pollution ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Water Source ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Drinking Water Source ◽  
The City

The Cauca River is the drinking water source for 1.3 million inhabitants of the city of Cali, Colombia. Although the river discharge is sufficient to handle the water demand of the city all year long, significant water pollution events cause frequent disruption to the Puerto Mallarino Treatment Plant (PMTP) and the water supply service, with substantial social and economic impacts on the city. The sources of pollution include wastewater discharges upstream of the PMTP and important sediment transport from the upstream sub-catchments during heavy rainfall events. Both situations can lead to a closure of the PMTP when the presence of a pollution plume at its intake is evident. This paper presents the design and prototype of a water quality early warning system to anticipate the peaks of pollution in the river, in order to assist the operators in taking timely informed decisions about the operation of the treatment plant. As the published experiences of early warning systems for similar water pollution problems are very limited, the approach to solve the problem using hydroinformatics technologies is worth documenting for utility companies with a similar problem.

scholarly journals Impact of different heat wave definitions on daily mortality in Bandafassi, Senegal

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0249199
Author(s):  
Mbaye Faye ◽  
Abdoulaye Dème ◽  
Abdou Kâ Diongue ◽  
Ibrahima Diouf
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
The Impact

Objective The aim of this study is to find the most suitable heat wave definition among 15 different ones and to evaluate its impact on total, age-, and gender-specific mortality for Bandafassi, Senegal. Methods Daily weather station data were obtained from Kedougou situated at 17 km from Bandafassi from 1973 to 2012. Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) are used to investigate the effect of heat wave on mortality and to evaluate the nonlinear association of heat wave definitions at different lag days, respectively. Results Heat wave definitions, based on three or more consecutive days with both daily minimum and maximum temperatures greater than the 90th percentile, provided the best model fit. A statistically significant increase in the relative risk (RRs 1.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.2–1.6), 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9), 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08–1.3), 1.2 (95% CI: 1.04–1.5), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.8), 1.4 (95% CI: 1.2–1.5), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.07–1.6), and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.8)) of total mortality was observed for eight definitions. By using the definition based on the 90th percentile of minimum and maximum temperature with a 3-day duration, we also found that females and people aged ≥ 55 years old were at higher risks than males and other different age groups to heat wave related mortality. Conclusion The impact of heat waves was associated with total-, age-, gender-mortality. These results are expected to be useful for decision makers who conceive of public health policies in Senegal and elsewhere. Climate parameters, including temperatures and humidity, could be used to forecast heat wave risks as an early warning system in the area where we conduct this research. More broadly, our findings should be highly beneficial to climate services, researchers, clinicians, end-users and decision-makers.

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