scholarly journals Ground motion simulations for finite-fault earthquake scenarios on the Húsavík-Flatey Fault, North Iceland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Abril ◽  
Martin Mai ◽  
Benedikt Halldórsson ◽  
Bo Li ◽  
Alice Gabriel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Fault Rupture ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
3D Velocity Model ◽  
Finite Fault

<p>The Tjörnes Fracture Zone (TFZ) in North Iceland is the largest and most complex zone of transform faulting in Iceland, formed due to a ridge-jump between two spreading centers of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Northern Volcanic Zone and Kolbeinsey Ridge in North Iceland. Strong earthquakes (Ms>6) have repeatedly occurred in the TFZ and affected the North Icelandic population. In particular the large historical earthquakes of 1755 (Ms 7.0) and 1872 (doublet, Ms 6.5), have been associated with the Húsavı́k-Flatey Fault (HFF), which is the largest linear strike-slip transform fault in the TFZ, and in Iceland. We simulate fault rupture on the HFF and the corresponding near-fault ground motion for several potential earthquake scenarios, including scenario events that replicate the large 1755 and 1872 events. Such simulations are relevant for the town of Húsavı́k in particular, as it is located on top of the HFF and is therefore subject to the highest seismic hazard in the country. Due to the mostly offshore location of the HFF, its precise geometry has only recently been studied in more detail. We compile updated seismological and geophysical information in the area, such as a recently derived three-dimensional velocity model for P and S waves. Seismicity relocations using this velocity model, together with bathymetric and geodetic data, provide detailed information to constrain the fault geometry. In addition, we use this 3D velocity model to simulate seismic wave propagation. For this purpose, we generate a variety of kinematic earthquake-rupture scenarios, and apply a 3D finite-difference method (SORD) to propagate the radiated seismic waves through Earth structure. Slip distributions for the different scenarios are computed using a von Karman autocorrelation function whose parameters are calibrated with slip distributions available for a few recent Icelandic earthquakes. Simulated scenarios provide synthetic ground motion and time histories and estimates of peak ground motion parameters (PGA and PGV) at low frequencies (<2 Hz) for Húsavík and other main towns in North Iceland along with maps of ground shaking for the entire region [130 km x 110 km]. Ground motion estimates are compared with those provided by empirical ground motion models calibrated to Icelandic earthquakes and dynamic fault-rupture simulations for the HFF. Directivity effects towards or away from the coastal areas are analyzed to estimate the expected range of shaking. Thick sedimentary deposits (up to ∼4 km thick) located offshore on top of the HFF (reported by seismic, gravity anomaly and tomographic studies) may affect the effective depth of the fault's top boundary and the surface rupture potential. The results of this study showcase the extent of expected ground motions from significant and likely earthquake scenarios on the HFF. Finite fault earthquake simulations complement the currently available information on seismic hazard for North Iceland, and are a first step towards a systematic and large-scale earthquake scenario database on the HFF, and for the entire fault system of the TFZ, that will enable comprehensive and physics-based hazard assessment in the region.</p>

scholarly journals Development of a 3D Velocity Model of the Canterbury, New Zealand, Region for Broadband Ground‐Motion Simulation

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (5) ◽  
pp. 2131-2150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin L. Lee ◽  
Brendon A. Bradley ◽  
Francesca C. Ghisetti ◽  
Ethan M. Thomson
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Motion Simulation ◽  
Ground Motion Simulation ◽  
3D Velocity Model ◽  
Broadband Ground Motion Simulation ◽  
Broadband Ground Motion

High-frequency ground-motion variability for rough-fault ruptures  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagdish Chandra Vyas ◽  
Martin Galis ◽  
Paul Martin Mai
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motion ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Roughness Effects ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Fault Surface ◽  
Fault Roughness ◽  
Ground Motion Variability

<p>Geological observations show variations in fault-surface topography not only at large scale (segmentation) but also at small scale (roughness). These geometrical complexities strongly affect the stress distribution and frictional strength of the fault, and therefore control the earthquake rupture process and resulting ground-shaking. Previous studies examined fault-segmentation effects on ground-shaking, but our understanding of fault-roughness effects on seismic wavefield radiation and earthquake ground-motion is still limited.  </p><p>In this study we examine the effects of fault roughness on ground-shaking variability as a function of distance based on 3D dynamic rupture simulations. We consider linear slip-weakening friction, variations of fault-roughness parametrizations, and alternative nucleation positions (unilateral and bilateral ruptures). We use generalized finite difference method to compute synthetic waveforms (max. resolved frequency 5.75 Hz) at numerous surface sites  to carry out statistical analysis.  </p><p>Our simulations reveal that ground-motion variability from unilateral ruptures is almost independent of  distance from the fault, with comparable or higher values than estimates from ground-motion prediction equations (e.g., Boore and Atkinson, 2008; Campbell and Bozornia, 2008). However, ground-motion variability from bilateral ruptures decreases with increasing distance, in contrast to previous studies (e.g., Imtiaz et. al., 2015) who observe an increasing trend with distance. Ground-shaking variability from unilateral ruptures is higher than for bilateral ruptures, a feature due to intricate seismic radiation patterns related to fault roughness and hypocenter location. Moreover, ground-shaking variability for rougher faults is lower than for smoother faults. As fault roughness increases the difference in ground-shaking variabilities between unilateral and bilateral ruptures increases. In summary, our simulations help develop a fundamental understanding of ground-motion variability at high frequencies (~ 6 Hz) due small-scale geometrical fault-surface variations.</p>

Simulation-Based Seismic Hazard Assessment Using Monte-Carlo Earthquake Catalogs: Application to CyberShake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Azar ◽  
Mayssa Dabaghi
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Earthquake Catalogs ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Hazard Curves

ABSTRACT The use of numerical simulations in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has achieved a promising level of reliability in recent years. One example is the CyberShake project, which incorporates physics-based 3D ground-motion simulations within seismic hazard calculations. Nonetheless, considerable computational time and resources are required due to the significant processing requirements imposed by source-based models on one hand, and the large number of seismic sources and possible rupture variations on the other. This article proposes to use a less computationally demanding simulation-based PSHA framework for CyberShake. The framework can accurately represent the seismic hazard at a site, by only considering a subset of all the possible earthquake scenarios, based on a Monte-Carlo simulation procedure that generates earthquake catalogs having a specified duration. In this case, ground motions need only be simulated for the scenarios selected in the earthquake catalog, and hazard calculations are limited to this subset of scenarios. To validate the method and evaluate its accuracy in the CyberShake platform, the proposed framework is applied to three sites in southern California, and hazard calculations are performed for earthquake catalogs with different lengths. The resulting hazard curves are then benchmarked against those obtained by considering the entire set of earthquake scenarios and simulations, as done in CyberShake. Both approaches yield similar estimates of the hazard curves for elastic pseudospectral accelerations and inelastic demands, with errors that depend on the length of the Monte-Carlo catalog. With 200,000 yr catalogs, the errors are consistently smaller than 5% at the 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr hazard level, using only ∼3% of the entire set of simulations. Both approaches also produce similar disaggregation patterns. The results demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach in a simulation-based PSHA platform like CyberShake and as a ground-motion selection tool for seismic demand analyses.

Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Castro ◽  
Alan Poulos ◽  
Juan Carlos Herrera ◽  
Juan Carlos de la Llera
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
The Impact

Tsunami alerts following severe earthquakes usually affect large geographical regions and require people to evacuate to higher safety zones. However, evacuation routes may be hindered by building debris and vehicles, thus leading to longer evacuation times and an increased risk of loss of life. Herein, we apply an agent-based model to study the evacuation situation of the coastal city of Iquique, north Chile, where most of the population is exposed to inundation from an incoming tsunami. The study evaluates different earthquake scenarios characterized by different ground motion intensities in terms of the evacuation process within a predefined inundation zone. Evacuating agents consider the microscale interactions with cars and other people using a collision avoidance algorithm. Results for the no ground shaking scenario are compared for validation with those of a real evacuation drill done in 2013 for the entire city. Finally, a parametric analysis is performed with ten different levels of ground motion intensity, showing that evacuation times for 95% of the population increase in 2.5 min on average when considering the effect of building debris.

Aftershock Analysis of the 2018 Mw 7.1 Anchorage, Alaska, Earthquake: Relocations and Regional Moment Tensors

2019 ◽  
Vol 91 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia A. Ruppert ◽  
Avinash Nayak ◽  
Clifford Thurber ◽  
Cole Richards
Keyword(s):  
Moment Tensor ◽  
Hanging Wall ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Fault Rupture ◽  
Moment Tensors ◽  
3D Velocity Model ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Alaska Earthquake

Abstract The 30 November 2018 magnitude 7.1 Anchorage earthquake occurred as a result of normal faulting within the lithosphere of subducted Yakutat slab. It was followed by a vigorous aftershock sequence with over 10,000 aftershocks reported through the end of July 2019. The Alaska Earthquake Center produced a reviewed aftershock catalog with a magnitude of completeness of 1.3. This well‐recorded dataset provides a rare opportunity to study the relationship between the aftershocks and fault rupture of a major intraslab event. We use tomoDD algorithm to relocate 2038 M≥2 aftershocks with a regional 3D velocity model. The relocated aftershocks extend over a 20 km long zone between 47 and 57 km depth and are primarily confined to a high VP/VS region. Aftershocks form two clusters, a diffuse southern cluster and a steeply west‐dipping northern cluster with a gap in between where maximum slip has been inferred. We compute moment tensors for the Mw>4 aftershocks using a cut‐and‐paste method and careful selection of regional broadband stations. The moment tensor solutions do not exhibit significant variability or systematic differences between the northern and southern clusters and, on average, agree well with the mainshock fault‐plane parameters. We propose that the mainshock rupture initiated in the Yakutat lower crust or uppermost mantle and propagated both upward into the crust to near its top and downward into the mantle. The majority of the aftershocks are confined to the seismically active Yakutat crust and located both on and in the hanging wall of the mainshock fault rupture.

scholarly journals Use of remote sensing and seismotectonic parameters for seismic hazard analysis of Bangalore

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 927-939 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. G. Sitharam ◽  
P. Anbazhagan ◽  
K. Ganesha Raj
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Moment Magnitude ◽  
Seismic Zone ◽  
Fault Rupture ◽  
Maximum Credible Earthquake ◽  
Different Sources

Abstract. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) for the Bangalore, India has been carried out by considering the past earthquakes, assumed subsurface fault rupture lengths and point source synthetic ground motion model. The sources have been identified using satellite remote sensing images and seismotectonic atlas map of India and relevant field studies. Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) has been determined by considering the regional seismotectonic activity in about 350 km radius around Bangalore. The seismotectonic map has been prepared by considering the faults, lineaments, shear zones in the area and past moderate earthquakes of more than 470 events having the moment magnitude of 3.5 and above. In addition, 1300 number of earthquake tremors having moment magnitude of less than 3.5 has been considered for the study. Shortest distance from the Bangalore to the different sources is measured and then Peak Horizontal Acceleration (PHA) is calculated for the different sources and moment magnitude of events using regional attenuation relation for peninsular India. Based on Wells and Coppersmith (1994) relationship, subsurface fault rupture length of about 3.8% of total length of the fault shown to be matching with past earthquake events in the area. To simulate synthetic ground motions, Boore (1983, 2003) SMSIM programs have been used and the PHA for the different locations is evaluated. From the above approaches, the PHA of 0.15 g was established. This value was obtained for a maximum credible earthquake having a moment magnitude of 5.1 for a source Mandya-Channapatna-Bangalore lineament. This particular source has been identified as a vulnerable source for Bangalore. From this study, it is very clear that Bangalore area can be described as seismically moderately active region. It is also recommended that southern part of Karnataka in particular Bangalore, Mandya and Kolar, need to be upgraded from current Indian Seismic Zone II to Seismic Zone III. Acceleration time history (ground motion) has been generated using synthetic earthquake model by considering the revised regional seismotectonic parameters. The rock level PHA map for Bangalore has been prepared and these maps are useful for the purpose of seismic microzonation, ground response analysis and design of important structures.

scholarly journals Tsunami hazard in Lombok & Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores backarc thrust

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Felix ◽  
Judith Hubbard ◽  
Kyle Bradley ◽  
Karen Lythgoe ◽  
Linlin Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Flow ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Sequence ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Northern Coast ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios

Abstract. The tsunami hazard posed by the Flores backarc thrust, which runs along the northern coast of the islands of Bali and Lombok, Indonesia, is poorly studied compared to the Sunda megathrust, situated ~250 km to the south of the islands. However, the 2018 Lombok earthquake sequence demonstrated the seismic potential of the western Flores Thrust when a fault ramp beneath the island of Lombok ruptured in two Mw 6.9 earthquakes. Although the uplift in these events mostly occurred below land, the sequence still generated 1–2.5 m-high local tsunamis along the northern coast of Lombok (Wibowo et al., 2021). Historical records show that the Flores fault system in the Lombok and Bali region has generated at least six ≥ Ms 6.5 tsunamigenic earthquakes since 1800 CE. Hence, it is important to assess the possible tsunami hazard represented by this fault system. Here, we focus on the submarine fault segment located between the islands of Lombok and Bali (below the Lombok Strait). We assess modeled tsunami patterns generated by fault slip in six earthquake scenarios (slip of 1–5 m, representing Mw 7.2–7.9+), with a focus on impacts on the capital cities of Mataram, Lombok and Denpasar, Bali, which lie on the coasts facing the strait. We use a geologically constrained earthquake model informed by the Lombok earthquake sequence (Lythgoe et al., 2021), together with a high-resolution bathymetry dataset developed by combining direct measurements from GEBCO with sounding measurements from the official nautical charts for Indonesia. Our results show that fault rupture in this region could trigger a tsunami reaching Mataram in < 8 minutes and Denpasar in ~10–15 minutes, with multiple waves. For an earthquake with 3–5 m of coseismic slip, Mataram and Denpasar experience maximum wave heights of ~1.3–3.3 m and ~0.7 to 1.5 m, respectively. Furthermore, our earthquake models indicate that both cities would experience coseismic subsidence of 20–40 cm, exacerbating their exposure to both the tsunami and other coastal hazards. Overall, Mataram city is more exposed than Denpasar to high tsunami waves arriving quickly from the fault source. To understand how a tsunami would affect Mataram, we model the associated inundation using the 5 m slip model and show that Mataram is inundated ~55–140 m inland along the northern coast and ~230 m along the southern coast, with maximum flow depths of ~2–3 m. Our study highlights that the early tsunami arrival in Mataram, Lombok gives little time for residents to evacuate. Raising their awareness about the potential for locally generated tsunamis and the need for evacuation plans is important to help them respond immediately after experiencing strong ground shaking.

Impact of Down‐Dip Rupture Limit and High‐Stress Drop Subevents on Coseismic Land‐Level Change during Cascadia Megathrust Earthquakes

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (6) ◽  
pp. 2187-2197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin A. Wirth ◽  
Arthur D. Frankel
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Velocity ◽  
High Stress ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Coseismic Deformation ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Level Change

Abstract Seismic hazard associated with Cascadia megathrust earthquakes is strongly dependent on the landward rupture extent and heterogeneous fault properties. We use 3D numerical simulations and a seismic velocity model for Cascadia to estimate coseismic deformation due to M 9–9.2 earthquake scenarios. Our earthquake source model is based on observations of the 2010 M 8.8 Maule and 2011 M 9.0 Tohoku earthquakes, which exhibited distinct strong motion‐generating subevents in the deep portion of the fault. We compare our estimates for land‐level change to paleoseismic estimates for coseismic coastal subsidence during the A.D. 1700 Cascadia earthquake. Results show that megathrust rupture extending to the 1  cm/yr locking contour provides a good match to geologic data. In addition, along‐strike variations in coastal subsidence can be matched by including low slip, strong motion‐generating subevents in the down‐dip region of the megathrust. This work demonstrates the potential to improve seismic hazard estimates for Cascadia earthquakes by comparing physics‐based earthquake simulations with geologic observations.

scholarly journals Hazard-Consistent Earthquake Scenario Selection for Seismic Slope Stability Assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 4977
Author(s):  
Alexey Konovalov ◽  
Yuriy Gensiorovskiy ◽  
Andrey Stepnov
Keyword(s):  
Slope Stability ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Slope Failure ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Seismic Loading ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Total Probability ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Earthquake Scenario

Design ground shaking intensity, based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) maps, is most commonly used as a triggering condition to analyze slope stability under seismic loading. Uncertainties that are associated with expected ground motion levels are often ignored. This study considers an improved, fully probabilistic approach for earthquake scenario selection. The given method suggests the determination of the occurrence probability of various ground motion levels and the probability of landsliding for these ground motion parameters, giving the total probability of slope failure under seismic loading in a certain time interval. The occurrence hazard deaggregation technique is proposed for the selection of the ground shaking level, as well as the magnitude and source-to-site distance of a design earthquake, as these factors most probably trigger slope failure within the time interval of interest. An example application of the approach is provided for a slope near the highway in the south of Sakhalin Island (Russia). The total probability of earthquake-induced slope failure in the next 50 years was computed to be in the order of 16%. The scenario peak ground acceleration value estimated from the disaggregated earthquake-induced landslide hazard is 0.15g, while the 475-year seismic hazard curve predicts 0.3g. The case study highlights the significant difference between ground shaking scenario levels in terms of the 475-year seismic hazard map and the considered fully probabilistic approach.

scholarly journals 3D NUMERICAL MODELLING OF THE SEISMIC RESPONSE OF THE THESSALONIKI URBAN AREA: THE CASE OF THE 1978 VOLVI EARTHQUAKE

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 1433
Author(s):  
C. Smerzini ◽  
K. Pitilakis ◽  
K. Hashemi
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modelling ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spectral Element ◽  
Seismic Wave Propagation ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motion ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
3D Numerical Modelling ◽  
Wide Scale

This study aims at showing the numerical modelling of earthquake ground motion in the Thessaloniki urban area, using a 3D spectral element approach. The availability of detailed geotechnical/geophysical data together with the seismological information regarding the relevant fault sources allowed us to construct a large-scale 3D numerical model suitable for generating physics based ground shaking scenarios within the city of Thessaloniki up to maximum frequencies of about 2 Hz. Results of the numerical simulation of the destructive MW6.5 1978 Volvi earthquake are addressed, showing that realistic estimates can be obtained. Shaking maps in terms of ground motion parameters such as PGV are used to discuss the main seismic wave propagation effects at a wide scale.

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