The importance of satellite soil moisture assimilation for low-level jet forecasts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig R. Ferguson ◽  
Shubhi Agrawal ◽  
Lance F. Bosart
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Antecedent Soil Moisture ◽  
Event Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Low Level Jet

<p>The U.S. Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) is active on 26% and 62% of May-September days in the northern and southern Plains, respectively. Characterized by a diurnally-oscillating low-level wind maximum below 700 hPa, large vertical wind shear, and enhanced atmospheric moisture convergence, LLJs have been shown to fuel extreme wind- and precipitation generating mesoscale convective systems. Overall, they explain 30-50% of May-September precipitation in the Plains. The considerable societal impacts of LLJs, which span agriculture, severe weather, and wind energy, have long motivated meteorologist-led investigations into their dynamics and predictability. The sensitivity of LLJs to regional soil moisture gradients was established over thirty years ago. However, it was only recently that our work provided the first estimates of the added-value of satellite soil moisture data assimilation (DA) to LLJ forecasts.</p><p>In this presentation, we review and expand upon our previous analysis of 75 NASA Unified WRF LLJ case studies simulated with- and without weakly-coupled NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture DA. Of the 75-jet cases, 43 are uncoupled LLJs and 32 are coupled LLJs. Their dynamical classification corresponds with the probable efficacy of land data assimilation. Cyclone-induced coupled LLJs, found in the warm sector of frontal systems, are strongly driven by synoptics and less likely to be influenced by land forcing. Conversely, uncoupled LLJs that occur during quiescent conditions of an anticyclonic high pressure ridge system are likely to be more strongly affected by terrain and soil moisture gradient-induced circulations.</p><p>It is shown that SMAP DA is generally more effective in uncoupled LLJ cases. However, significant SMAP DA-induced wind speed differences are noted for both LLJ types at their core and exit regions. Notably, the range of SMAP DA-induced wind speed differences between LLJs of the same class (i.e., uncoupled LLJs) is comparable to the range of differences between LLJs of different classes (i.e., coupled vs. uncoupled). Follow-on analyses presented here address the question of what differs between LLJs with small and large SMAP DA effects. Specifically, we explore attribution of event-scale differences in the added-value of SMAP DA to factors including SMAP spatial coverage, antecedent soil moisture, and the strength of synoptic forcing. Finally, a closer look is given to the verification of jet exit region SMAP DA-induced wind speed shifts using Rapid Refresh.</p>

scholarly journals Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture for Improved Forecasts of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (11) ◽  
pp. 4607-4627
Author(s):  
Craig R. Ferguson ◽  
Shubhi Agrawal ◽  
Mark C. Beauharnois ◽  
Geng Xia ◽  
D. Alex Burrows ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
South Central ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

AbstractIn the context of forecasting societally impactful Great Plains low-level jets (GPLLJs), the potential added value of satellite soil moisture (SM) data assimilation (DA) is high. GPLLJs are both sensitive to regional soil moisture gradients and frequent drivers of severe weather, including mesoscale convective systems. An untested hypothesis is that SM DA is more effective in forecasts of weakly synoptically forced, or uncoupled GPLLJs, than in forecasts of cyclone-induced coupled GPLLJs. Using the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model, 75 GPLLJs are simulated at 9-km resolution both with and without NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive SM DA. Differences in modeled SM, surface sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes, 2-m temperature (T2), 2-m humidity (Q2), PBL height (PBLH), and 850-hPa wind speed (W850) are quantified for individual jets and jet-type event subsets over the south-central Great Plains, as well as separately for each GPLLJ sector (entrance, core, and exit). At the GPLLJ core, DA-related changes of up to 5.4 kg m−2 in SM can result in T2, Q2, LH, SH, PBLH, and W850 differences of 0.68°C, 0.71 g kg−2, 59.9 W m−2, 52.4 W m−2, 240 m, and 4 m s−1, respectively. W850 differences focus along the jet axis and tend to increase from south to north. Jet-type differences are most evident at the GPLLJ exit where DA increases and decreases W850 in uncoupled and coupled GPLLJs, respectively. Data assimilation marginally reduces negative wind speed bias for all jets, but the correction is greater for uncoupled GPLLJs, as hypothesized.

scholarly journals Impact of enriched analyses on regional numerical forecasts over southeastern South America during SALLJEX

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 315-330
Author(s):  
Yanina García Skabar ◽  
Matilde Nicolini
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
South America ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
South American ◽  
The South ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Accumulated Rainfall ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
The Impact

During the warm season 2002-2003, the South American Low-Level Jet Experiment (SALLJEX) was carried out in southeastern South America. Taking advantage of the unique database collected in the region, a set of analyses is generated for the SALLJEX period assimilating all available data. The spatial and temporal resolution of this new set of analyses is higher than that of analyses available up to present for southeastern South America. The aim of this paper is to determine the impact of assimilating data into initial fields on mesoscale forecasts in the region, using the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) with particular emphasis on the South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ) structure and on rainfall forecasts. For most variables, using analyses with data assimilated as initial fields has positive effects on short term forecast. Such effect is greater in wind variables, but not significant in forecasts longer than 24 hours. In particular, data assimilation does not improve forecasts of 24-hour accumulated rainfall, but it has slight positive effects on accumulated rainfall between 6 and 12 forecast hours. As the main focus is on the representation of the SALLJ, the effect of data assimilation in its forecast was explored. Results show that SALLJ is fairly predictable however assimilating additional observation data has small impact on the forecast of SALLJ timing and intensity. The strength of the SALLJ is underestimated independently of data assimilation. However, Root mean square error (RMSE) and BIAS values reveal the positive effect of data assimilation up to 18-hours forecasts with a greater impact near higher topography.

scholarly journals Impacts of Modifications to a Local Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme on Forecasts of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet Environment

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 1109-1120 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E. Jahn ◽  
William A. Gallus
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Planetary Boundary Layer ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Stable Conditions ◽  
Pbl Scheme ◽  
Low Level Jet

Abstract The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) is influential in the initiation and evolution of nocturnal convection through the northward advection of heat and moisture, as well as convergence in the region of the LLJ nose. However, accurate numerical model forecasts of LLJs remain a challenge, related to the performance of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme in the stable boundary layer. Evaluated here using a series of LLJ cases from the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) program are modifications to a commonly used local PBL scheme, Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN), available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. WRF forecast mean absolute error (MAE) and bias are calculated relative to PECAN rawinsonde observations. The first MYNN modification invokes a new set of constants for the scheme closure equations that, in the vicinity of the LLJ, decreases forecast MAEs of wind speed, potential temperature, and specific humidity more than 19%. For comparison, the Yonsei University (YSU) scheme results in wind speed MAEs 22% lower but specific humidity MAEs 17% greater than in the original MYNN scheme. The second MYNN modification, which incorporates the effects of potential kinetic energy and uses a nonzero mixing length in stable conditions as dependent on bulk shear, reduces wind speed MAEs 66% for levels below the LLJ, but increases MAEs at higher levels. Finally, Rapid Refresh analyses, which are often used for forecast verification, are evaluated here and found to exhibit a relatively large average wind speed bias of 3 m s−1 in the region below the LLJ, but with relatively small potential temperature and specific humidity biases.

scholarly journals Low Level Jet Wind Shear in the Sahel

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Saïdou Madougou ◽  
Frederique Saïd ◽  
Bernard Campistron ◽  
Fadel Kebe Cheikh
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Shear Direction ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Aircraft Navigation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Wind Profiler Radar ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Wind Shears ◽  
Uhf Wind Profiler

In the Sahel, a vertical wind shear appears in the dry and in the wet seasons. In Niamey, Niger, during the dry season, the period of strong shears is clearly linked to the Nocturnal Low Level Jet (LLJ) since it occurs in a narrow time period around 06H00 UTC at 60% of the cases reach shears which require an alert to the pilots (higher than 4 ms-1 per 100 m). The majority of cases occur during the night with a wind shear direction between 90 and 150° per 100 m, which is shown that it is dangerous for aircraft. In Bamako, Mali, high wind shears represent (higher than 4 ms-1 per 100 m) only 16-22% of the cases and can occur at any time of the day. There are, however, 8% of the cases, the whole day long, when the wind shear can reach more than 6 ms-1 per 100 m. Most of the wind shear directions are also between 0 and 90° per 100 m during the night. This is why the Agency for the safety of aircraft navigation in Africa and Madagascar (ASECNA) has put in 2004 at Bamako airport an UHF wind profiler radar for monitoring nocturnal strong Low Level Jet wind shear which occur regularly in this airport.

scholarly journals Mixed layer depths via Doppler lidar during low-level jet events

2018 ◽  
Vol 176 ◽  
pp. 06017
Author(s):  
Brian Carroll ◽  
Belay Demoz ◽  
Timothy Bonin ◽  
Ruben Delgado
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Doppler Lidar ◽  
High Wind ◽  
Fuzzy Logic Algorithm ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Low Level Jet

A low-level jet (LLJ) is a prominent wind speed peak in the lower troposphere. Nocturnal LLJs have been shown to transport and mix atmospheric constituents from the residual layer down to the surface, breaching quiescent nocturnal conditions due to high wind shear. A new fuzzy logic algorithm combining turbulence and aerosol information from Doppler lidar scans can resolve the strength and depth of this mixing below the jet. Conclusions will be drawn about LLJ relations to turbulence and mixing.

Numerical Simulation of the Effects of Warm Temperature Perturbation on Mesoscale Vortex and Rainfall in Col Field

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongqiang Jiang ◽  
Chaohui Chen ◽  
Hongrang He ◽  
Yudi Liu ◽  
Hong Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Temperature Perturbation ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Mesoscale Vortex ◽  
Pressure Drops ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Upper Level

<p>The col field (a region between two lows and two highs in the isobaric surface) is a common pattern leading to the generation of mesoscale vortex and heavy rainfall in China. The mesoscale vortex usually forms near the col point and the dilatation axis of the col field in the low-level troposphere.</p><p>The Mesoscale model WRF was used to numerically simulate a rainfall process in col field. A temperature perturbation column (TPC) was introduced into the low-level col field near the col point, and the effects of TPC on mesoscale vortex and rainfall was analyzed.</p><p>It was shown that in the region of strong wind background, the TPC moves downstream and has little effect on the environment, while near the col point, the wind speed and the vertical wind shear are small, the TPC can stay in the col field for a long time, which can have a greater impact on the environment. The strong TPC near the col point can trigger the vortex. As the temperature of the air column increases, the pressure drops, leading to the low-level convergence and the upper-level divergence, and the low-level cyclonic vorticity form under the effect of ageostrophic winds, which is favor of the formation of mesoscale vortex in the weak wind field. The formation of vortex promotes the intensification of precipitation. The release of the latent heat of the condensation induced by the TPC makes a positive feedback for the mesoscale vortex. The southwestly low-level jet enhances through the thermodynamic action, resulting in convergence of the leeward low-level jet and increase of precipitation, and divergence of the upwind low-level jet and decrease of precipitation, respectively. The col field is a favorable circumstance for the formation of mesoscale vortex.</p><p>Acknowledgements. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41975128 and 41275099).</p>

scholarly journals A new data assimilation approach for improving runoff prediction using remotely-sensed soil moisture retrievals

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. T. Crow ◽  
D. Ryu
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Surface Soil ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Surface Soil Moisture ◽  
Antecedent Soil Moisture ◽  
Runoff Prediction ◽  
Moisture Conditions

Abstract. A number of recent studies have focused on enhancing runoff prediction via the assimilation of remotely-sensed surface soil moisture retrievals into a hydrologic model. The majority of these approaches have viewed the problem from purely a state or parameter estimation perspective in which remotely-sensed soil moisture estimates are assimilated to improve the characterization of pre-storm soil moisture conditions in a hydrologic model, and consequently, its simulation of runoff response to subsequent rainfall. However, recent work has demonstrated that soil moisture retrievals can also be used to filter errors present in satellite-based rainfall accumulation products. This result implies that soil moisture retrievals have potential benefit for characterizing both antecedent moisture conditions (required to estimate sub-surface flow intensities and subsequent surface runoff efficiencies) and storm-scale rainfall totals (required to estimate the total surface runoff volume). In response, this work presents a new sequential data assimilation system that exploits remotely-sensed surface soil moisture retrievals to simultaneously improve estimates of both pre-storm soil moisture conditions and storm-scale rainfall accumulations. Preliminary testing of the system, via a synthetic twin data assimilation experiment based on the Sacramento hydrologic model and data collected from the Model Parameterization Experiment, suggests that the new approach is more efficient at improving stream flow predictions than data assimilation techniques focusing solely on the constraint of antecedent soil moisture conditions.

scholarly journals Analysis of Tropical Storm Formation Based on Ensemble Data Assimilation and High-Resolution Numerical Simulations of a Nondeveloping Disturbance

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (10) ◽  
pp. 3631-3649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew B. Penny ◽  
Joshua P. Hacker ◽  
Patrick A. Harr
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Ensemble Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Data ◽  
The Impact

A nondeveloping tropical disturbance, identified as TCS025, was observed during three intensive observing periods during The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)/Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008 (TCS-08) field experiment. The low-level circulation of the disturbance was relatively weak, asymmetric, and displaced a considerable distance from the midlevel circulation. An ensemble of high-resolution numerical simulations initialized from global model analyses was used to further examine TCS025. These simulations tended to unrealistically overdevelop the TCS025 disturbance. This study extends that work by examining the impact of assimilating in situ observations of TCS025 and dual-Doppler radial velocities from the airborne Electra Doppler Radar (ELDORA) using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble data assimilation system. The assimilation of observations results in a more accurate vortex structure that is consistent with the observational analysis. In addition, forecasts initialized from the state of the ensemble after data assimilation exhibit less development than both the control simulation and an ensemble of forecasts without prior data assimilation. A composite analysis of developing and nondeveloping forecasts from the ensemble reveals that convection was more active in developing simulations, especially near the low-level circulation center. This led to larger diabatic heating rates, spinup of the low-level circulation from vorticity stretching, and greater alignment of the low- and midlevel vorticity centers. In contrast, nondeveloping simulations exhibited less convection, and the circulation was more heavily impacted by vertical wind shear.

scholarly journals Low level jet intensification by mineral dust aerosols

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 625-632 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Alizadeh Choobari ◽  
P. Zawar-Reza ◽  
A. Sturman
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Wind Speed Profile ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Low Level Jet

Abstract. Modification of the intensity of a low level jet (LLJ) and near-surface wind speed by mineral dust is important as it has implications for dust emission and its long-range transport. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) regional model, it is shown that direct radiative forcing by mineral dust reduces temperature in the lower atmosphere, but increases it in the layers aloft. The surface cooling is shown to be associated with a reduction of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and hence vertical mixing of horizontal momentum. Changes in the vertical profile of temperature over the regions that are under the influence of a LLJ are shown to result in an intensification of the LLJ and near-surface wind speed, but a decrease of winds aloft. These changes in the wind speed profile differ from results of previous research which suggested a decrease of wind speed in the lower atmosphere and its increase in the upper boundary layer.

scholarly journals Quadrant-Dependent Evolution of Low-Level Tangential Wind of a Tropical Cyclone in the Shear Flow

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 1159-1177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian-Feng Gu ◽  
Zhe-Min Tan ◽  
Xin Qiu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Shear Flow ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Steady Stage ◽  
Tangential Wind ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
The Right

Abstract This study investigates the quadrant-by-quadrant evolution of the low-level tangential wind near the eyewall of an idealized simulated mature tropical cyclone embedded in a unidirectional shear flow. It is found that the quadrant-averaged tangential wind in the right-of-shear quadrants weakens continuously, while that in the left-of-shear quadrants experiences a two-stage evolution: a quasi-steady stage followed by a weakening stage after the imposing of vertical wind shear. This leads to a larger weakening rate in the right-of-shear and a stronger jet in the left-of-shear quadrants. The budget analysis shows that the quadrant-dependent evolution of tangential wind is controlled through the balance between the generalized Coriolis force (GCF; i.e., the radial advection of absolute angular momentum) and the advection terms. The steady decreasing of the GCF is primarily responsible for the continuous weakening of jet strength in the right-of-shear quadrants. For the left-of-shear quadrants, the quasi-steady stage is due to the opposite contributions by the enhanced GCF and negative tendency of advections cancelling out each other. The later weakening stage is the result of both the decreased GCF and the negative tangential advection. The combination of storm-relative flows at vortex scale and the convection strength both within and outside the eyewall determines the evolution of boundary layer inflow asymmetries, which in turn results in the change of GCF, leading to the quadrant-dependent evolution of low-level jet strength and thus the overall storm intensity change.

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