scholarly journals EMDNA: Ensemble Meteorological Dataset for North America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoqiang Tang ◽  
Martyn P. Clark ◽  
Simon Michael Papalexiou ◽  
Andrew J. Newman ◽  
Andrew W. Wood ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Optimal Interpolation ◽  
Small Subset ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract. Probabilistic methods are very useful to estimate the spatial variability in meteorological conditions (e.g., spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature across large domains). In ensemble probabilistic methods, equally plausible ensemble members are used to approximate the probability distribution, hence uncertainty, of a spatially distributed meteorological variable conditioned on the available information. The ensemble can be used to evaluate the impact of the uncertainties in a myriad of applications. This study develops the Ensemble Meteorological Dataset for North America (EMDNA). EMDNA has 100 members with daily precipitation amount, mean daily temperature, and daily temperature range at 0.1° spatial resolution from 1979 to 2018, derived from a fusion of station observations and reanalysis model outputs. The station data used in EMDNA are from a serially complete dataset for North America (SCDNA) that fills gaps in precipitation and temperature measurements using multiple strategies. Outputs from three reanalysis products are regridded, corrected, and merged using the Bayesian Model Averaging. Optimal Interpolation (OI) is used to merge station- and reanalysis-based estimates. EMDNA estimates are generated based on OI estimates and spatiotemporally correlated random fields. Evaluation results show that (1) the merged reanalysis estimates outperform raw reanalysis estimates, particularly in high latitudes and mountainous regions; (2) the OI estimates are more accurate than the reanalysis and station-based regression estimates, with the most notable improvement for precipitation occurring in sparsely gauged regions; and (3) EMDNA estimates exhibit good performance according to the diagrams and metrics used for probabilistic evaluation. We also discuss the limitations of the current framework and highlight that persistent efforts are needed to further develop probabilistic methods and ensemble datasets. Overall, EMDNA is expected to be useful for hydrological and meteorological applications in North America. The whole dataset and a teaser dataset (a small subset of EMDNA for easy download and preview) are available at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0275 (Tang et al., 2020a).

scholarly journals EMDNA: an Ensemble Meteorological Dataset for North America

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3337-3362
Author(s):  
Guoqiang Tang ◽  
Martyn P. Clark ◽  
Simon Michael Papalexiou ◽  
Andrew J. Newman ◽  
Andrew W. Wood ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Optimal Interpolation ◽  
Small Subset ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract. Probabilistic methods are useful to estimate the uncertainty in spatial meteorological fields (e.g., the uncertainty in spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature across large domains). In ensemble probabilistic methods, “equally plausible” ensemble members are used to approximate the probability distribution, hence the uncertainty, of a spatially distributed meteorological variable conditioned to the available information. The ensemble members can be used to evaluate the impact of uncertainties in spatial meteorological fields for a myriad of applications. This study develops the Ensemble Meteorological Dataset for North America (EMDNA). EMDNA has 100 ensemble members with daily precipitation amount, mean daily temperature, and daily temperature range at 0.1∘ spatial resolution (approx. 10 km grids) from 1979 to 2018, derived from a fusion of station observations and reanalysis model outputs. The station data used in EMDNA are from a serially complete dataset for North America (SCDNA) that fills gaps in precipitation and temperature measurements using multiple strategies. Outputs from three reanalysis products are regridded, corrected, and merged using Bayesian model averaging. Optimal interpolation (OI) is used to merge station- and reanalysis-based estimates. EMDNA estimates are generated using spatiotemporally correlated random fields to sample from the OI estimates. Evaluation results show that (1) the merged reanalysis estimates outperform raw reanalysis estimates, particularly in high latitudes and mountainous regions; (2) the OI estimates are more accurate than the reanalysis and station-based regression estimates, with the most notable improvements for precipitation evident in sparsely gauged regions; and (3) EMDNA estimates exhibit good performance according to the diagrams and metrics used for probabilistic evaluation. We discuss the limitations of the current framework and highlight that further research is needed to improve ensemble meteorological datasets. Overall, EMDNA is expected to be useful for hydrological and meteorological applications in North America. The entire dataset and a teaser dataset (a small subset of EMDNA for easy download and preview) are available at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0275 (Tang et al., 2020a).

Long-term population dynamics of the red deer and European roe deer at the protected and not-protected areas in Mountain Crimea

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 65-72
Author(s):  
V. N. Shmagol' ◽  
V. L. Yarysh ◽  
S. P. Ivanov ◽  
V. I. Maltsev
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Red Deer ◽  
Nature Reserve ◽  
Roe Deer ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Population Number ◽  
The Impact

<p>The long-term population dynamics of the red deer (<em>Cervus elaphus</em> L.) and European roe deer (<em>Capreolus</em> <em>capreolus</em> L.) at the mountain and forest zone of Crimea during 1980-2017 is presented. Fluctuations in numbers of both species are cyclical and partly synchronous. Period of oscillations in the population of red deer is about 25 years, the average duration of the oscillation period of number of roe deer is 12.3 years. During the fluctuations in the number the increasing and fall in population number of the red deer had been as 26-47 %, and roe deer – as 22-34 %. Basing on the dada obtained we have assumed that together with large-scale cycles of fluctuations in population number of both red deer and roe deer the short cycles of fluctuations in the number of these species with period from 3.5 to 7.5 years take place. Significant differences of the parameters of cyclical fluctuations in the number of roe deer at some sites of the Mountainous Crimea: breaches of synchronicity, as well as significant differences in the duration of cycles are revealed. The greatest deviations from the average values of parameters of long-term dynamics of the number of roe deer in Crimea are noted for groups of this species at two protected areas. At the Crimean Nature Reserve the cycle time of fluctuations of the numbers of roe deer was 18 years. At the Karadag Nature Reserve since 1976 we can see an exponential growth in number of roe deer that is continued up to the present time. By 2016 the number of roe deer reached 750 individuals at a density of 437 animals per 1 thousand ha. Peculiarity of dynamics of number of roe deer at some sites proves the existence in the mountain forest of Crimea several relatively isolated groups of deer. We assumed that "island" location of the Crimean populations of red deer and European roe deer, their relatively little number and influence of permanent extreme factors of both natural and anthropogenic origination have contributed to a mechanism of survival of these populations. The elements of such a mechanism include the following features of long-term dynamics of the population: the reduction in the period of cyclic population fluctuations, while maintaining their amplitude and the appearance of additional small cycles, providing more flexible response of the population to the impact of both negative and positive environmental factors. From the totality of the weather conditions for the Crimean population of roe deer the recurring periods of increases and downs in the annual precipitation amount may have relevance. There was a trend of increase in the roe deer population during periods of increasing annual precipitation.</p>

Climate-forced changes of bio-productivity of Belorussian terrestrial ecosystems

2019 ◽  
pp. 77-88
Author(s):  
S. A. Lysenko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Climatic Trend ◽  
Vegetation Growth ◽  
Current Century ◽  
The Impact

The spatial and temporal particularities of Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) changes over territory of Belarus in the current century and their relationship with climate change were investigated. The rise of NDVI is observed at approximately 84% of the Belarus area. The statistically significant growth of NDVI has exhibited at nearly 35% of the studied area (t-test at 95% confidence interval), which are mainly forests and undeveloped areas. Croplands vegetation index is largely descending. The main factor of croplands bio-productivity interannual variability is precipitation amount in vegetation period. This factor determines more than 60% of the croplands NDVI dispersion. The long-term changes of NDVI could be explained by combination of two factors: photosynthesis intensifying action of carbon dioxide and vegetation growth suppressing action of air warming with almost unchanged precipitation amount. If the observed climatic trend continues the croplands bio-productivity in many Belarus regions could be decreased at more than 20% in comparison with 2000 year. The impact of climate change on the bio-productivity of undeveloped lands is only slightly noticed on the background of its growth in conditions of rising level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Pentecostalism and African diaspora : a case study of the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG), in North America

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-92
Author(s):  
Rotimi Williams Omotoye
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
United States Of America ◽  
The United States ◽  
Church Of God ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Christian Church ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Church

Pentecostalism as a new wave of Christianity became more pronounced in 1970's and beyond in Nigeria. Since then scholars of Religion, History, Sociology and Political Science have shown keen interest in the study of the Churches known as Pentecostals because of the impact they have made on the society. The Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG) was established by Pastor Josiah Akindayomi in Lagos,Nigeria in 1952. After his demise, he was succeeded by Pastor Adeboye Adejare Enock. The problem of study of this research was an examination of the expansion of the Redeemed Christian Church of God to North America, Caribbean and Canada. The missionary activities of the church could be regarded as a reversed mission in the propagation of Christianity by Africans in the Diaspora. The methodology adopted was historical. The primary and secondary sources of information were also germane in the research. The findings of the research indicated that the Redeemed Christian Church of God was founded in North America by Immigrants from Nigeria. Pastor Adeboye Enock Adejare had much influence on the Church within and outside the country because of his charisma. The Church has become a place of refuge for many immigrants. They are also contributing to the economy of the United States of America. However, the members of the Church were faced with some challenges, such as security scrutiny by the security agencies. In conclusion, the RCCGNA was a denomination that had been accepted and embraced by Nigerians and African immigrants in the United States of America.

scholarly journals POS1121 DEMOGRAPHICS, COMORBIDITIES, AND RENAL FUNCTION OF UNCONTROLLED GOUT PATIENTS WHO RECEIVED PEGLOTICASE: FINDING FROM A LARGE US CLAIMS DATABASE

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 839.2-840
Author(s):  
C. Vesel ◽  
A. Morton ◽  
M. Francis-Sedlak ◽  
B. Lamoreaux
Keyword(s):  
Kidney Function ◽  
Real World ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Small Subset ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Claims Database ◽  
Medical Diagnoses ◽  
Ckd Stage ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact

Background:NHANES data indicate that approximately 9.2 million Americans have gout,1 with a small subset having uncontrolled disease.2 Pegloticase is a PEGylated recombinant uricase enzyme indicated for treating uncontrolled gout that markedly reduces serum uric acid levels (sUA)3 and resolves tophi in treatment responders.4 Despite pegloticase availability in the US for many years, real world demographics of pegloticase users in the treatment of uncontrolled gout have not been previously reported in a population-based cohort.Objectives:This study utilized a large US claims database to examine demographics and co-morbidities of uncontrolled gout patients treated with pegloticase. Kidney function before and after pegloticase treatment and concomitant therapy with immunomodulators were also examined.Methods:The TriNetX Diamond database includes de-identified data from 4.3 million US patients with gout (as of September 2019), including demographics, medical diagnoses, laboratory values, procedures (e.g. infusions, surgeries), and pharmacy data. Patients who had received ≥1 pegloticase infusion were included in these analyses. The number of infusions was evaluated for a subgroup of patients who were in the database ≥3 months before and ≥2 years after the first pegloticase infusion (i.e. first infusion prior to September 2017) to ensure only complete courses of therapy were captured. In this subpopulation, kidney function before and after pegloticase therapy was examined, along with the presence of immunomodulation prescriptions (methotrexate, mycophenolate mofetil, azathioprine, leflunomide) within 60 days prior to and 14 days after the first pegloticase infusion.Results:1494 patients treated with pegloticase were identified. Patients were 63.1 ± 14.0 years of age (range: 23–91), mostly male (82%), and white (76%). Mean sUA prior to pegloticase was 8.7 ± 2.4 mg/dL (n=50), indicating uncontrolled gout in the identified population. The most commonly reported comorbidities were chronic kidney disease (CKD, 48%), essential hypertension (71%), type 2 diabetes (39%), and cardiovascular disease (38%), similar to pegloticase pivotal Phase 3 trial populations. In patients with pre-therapy kidney function measures (n=134), pre-treatment eGFR averaged 61.2 ± 25.7 ml/min/1.73 m2, with 44% having Stage 3-5 CKD. In patients with complete therapy course capture and pre- and post-therapy eGFR measures (n=48), kidney function remained stable (change in eGFR: -2.9 ± 18.2 ml/min/1.73 m2) and CKD stage remained the same or improved in 81% of patients. In 791 patients with complete treatment course capture, patients had received 8.7 ± 13.8 infusions (median: 3, IQR: 2-10). Of these, 189 (24%) patients received only 1 pegloticase infusion and 173 (22%) received ≥12 infusions. As the data cut-off for this analysis pre-dated emerging data on the use of immunomodulation as co-therapy, only 19 of 791 (2%) patients received immunomodulation co-therapy with pegloticase.Conclusion:This relatively large group of patients with uncontrolled gout treated with pegloticase had similar patient characteristics of those studied in the phase 3 randomized clinical trials. Patients with uncontrolled gout are significantly burdened with systemic co-morbid diseases. The majority of patients had stable or improved kidney function following pegloticase treatment. As these results reflect patients initiating treatment prior to 2018, before co-treatment with immunomodulation was introduced, this cohort only included a small percentage of patients who were co-treated with an immunomodulator. Future studies using more current datasets are needed to evaluate real world outcomes in patients treated with pegloticase/immunomodulator co-therapy and to evaluate the impact of systemic co-morbid diseases.References:[1]Chen-Xu M, et al. Arthritis Rheumatol 2019 71:991-999.[2]Fels E, Sundy JS. Curr Opin Rheumatol 2008;20:198-202.[3]Sundy J, et al. JAMA 2011;306:711-720.[4]Mandell BF, et al. Arthritis Res Ther 2018;20:286.Disclosure of Interests:Claudia Vesel Shareholder of: Horizon Therapeutics plc, Employee of: Horizon Therapeutics plc, Allan Morton Speakers bureau: Sanofi, Amgen, and Horizon, Megan Francis-Sedlak Shareholder of: Horizon Therapeutics plc, Employee of: Horizon Therapeutics plc, Brian LaMoreaux Shareholder of: Horizon Therapeutics plc, Employee of: Horizon Therapeutics plc.

scholarly journals Is there an imbalance in the supply and demand for universal accessibility knowledge? Twenty years of UAIS papers viewed through the lens of WCAG

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frode Eika Sandnes
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
North America ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Research Focus ◽  
Universal Accessibility ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Research Profile ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

AbstractPurpose: Some universal accessibility practitioners have voiced that they experience a mismatch in the research focus and the need for knowledge within specialized problem domains. This study thus set out to identify the balance of research into the main areas of accessibility, the impact of this research, and how the research profile varies over time and across geographical regions. Method: All UAIS papers indexed in Scopus were analysed using bibliometric methods. The WCAG taxonomy of accessibility was used for the analysis, namely perceivable, operable, and understandable. Results: The results confirm the expectation that research into visual impairment has received more attention than papers addressing operable and understandable. Although papers focussing on understandable made up the smallest group, papers in this group attracted more citations. Funded research attracted fewer citations than research without funding. The breakdown of research efforts appears consistent over time and across different geographical regions. Researchers in Europe and North America have been active throughout the last two decades, while Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Middle East became active in during the last five years. There is also seemingly a growing trend of out-of-scope papers. Conclusions: Based on the findings, several recommendations are proposed to the UAIS editorial board.

scholarly journals A Link between the Hiatus in Global Warming and North American Drought

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3834-3845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Fanrong Zeng ◽  
Anthony Rosati ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Andrew T. Wittenberg
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North America ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
North American ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Global Warming Hiatus ◽  
Warming Hiatus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Portions of western North America have experienced prolonged drought over the last decade. This drought has occurred at the same time as the global warming hiatus—a decadal period with little increase in global mean surface temperature. Climate models and observational analyses are used to clarify the dual role of recent tropical Pacific changes in driving both the global warming hiatus and North American drought. When observed tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies are inserted into coupled models, the simulations produce persistent negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, a hiatus in global warming, and drought over North America driven by SST-induced atmospheric circulation anomalies. In the simulations herein the tropical wind anomalies account for 92% of the simulated North American drought during the recent decade, with 8% from anthropogenic radiative forcing changes. This suggests that anthropogenic radiative forcing is not the dominant driver of the current drought, unless the wind changes themselves are driven by anthropogenic radiative forcing. The anomalous tropical winds could also originate from coupled interactions in the tropical Pacific or from forcing outside the tropical Pacific. The model experiments suggest that if the tropical winds were to return to climatological conditions, then the recent tendency toward North American drought would diminish. Alternatively, if the anomalous tropical winds were to persist, then the impact on North American drought would continue; however, the impact of the enhanced Pacific easterlies on global temperature diminishes after a decade or two due to a surface reemergence of warmer water that was initially subducted into the ocean interior.

scholarly journals A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food

2016 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 358-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Hanlon ◽  
Gregory P. Brorby ◽  
Mansi Krishan
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Life Sciences ◽  
Technical Committee ◽  
Global Approach ◽  
Chemical Safety ◽  
The Public ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds.

scholarly journals Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales

2007 ◽  
Vol 191 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa A. Page ◽  
Shakoor Hajat ◽  
R. Sari Kovats
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuation ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Hot Weather ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

BackgroundSeasonal fluctuation in suicide has been observed in many populations. High temperature may contribute to this, but the effect of short-term fluctuations in temperature on suicide rates has not been studied.AimsTo assess the relationship between daily temperature and daily suicide counts in England and Wales between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2003 and to establish whether heatwaves are associated with increased mortality from suicide.MethodTime-series regression analysis was used to explore and quantify the relationship between daily suicide counts and daily temperature. The impact of two heatwaves on suicide was estimated.ResultsNo spring or summer peak in suicide was found. Above 18 °, each 1 ° increase in mean temperature was associated with a 3.8 and 5.0% rise in suicide and violent suicide respectively. Suicide increased by 46.9% during the 1995 heatwave, whereas no change was seen during the 2003 heat wave.ConclusionsThere is increased risk of suicide during hot weather.

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