scholarly journals Flexible and consistent quantile estimation for intensity–duration–frequency curves

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 6479-6494
Author(s):  
Felix S. Fauer ◽  
Jana Ulrich ◽  
Oscar E. Jurado ◽  
Henning W. Rust
Keyword(s):  
Power Law ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Observation Time ◽  
Performance Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Flexible Model

Abstract. Assessing the relationship between the intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) of extreme precipitation is required for the design of water management systems. However, when modeling sub-daily precipitation extremes, there are commonly only short observation time series available. This problem can be overcome by applying the duration-dependent formulation of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution which fits an IDF model with a range of durations simultaneously. The originally proposed duration-dependent GEV model exhibits a power-law-like behavior of the quantiles and takes care of a deviation from this scaling relation (curvature) for sub-hourly durations (Koutsoyiannis et al., 1998). We suggest that a more flexible model might be required to model a wide range of durations (1 min to 5 d). Therefore, we extend the model with the following two features: (i) different slopes for different quantiles (multiscaling) and (ii) the deviation from the power law for large durations (flattening), which is newly introduced in this study. Based on the quantile skill score, we investigate the performance of the resulting flexible model with respect to the benefit of the individual features (curvature, multiscaling, and flattening) with simulated and empirical data. We provide detailed information on the duration and probability ranges for which specific features or a systematic combination of features leads to improvements for stations in a case study area in the Wupper catchment (Germany). Our results show that allowing curvature or multiscaling improves the model only for very short or long durations, respectively, but leads to disadvantages in modeling the other duration ranges. In contrast, allowing flattening on average leads to an improvement for medium durations between 1 h and 1 d, without affecting other duration regimes. Overall, the new parametric form offers a flexible and enhanced performance model for consistently describing IDF relations over a wide range of durations, which has not been done before as most existing studies focus on durations longer than 1 h or day and do not address the deviation from the power law for very long durations (2–5 d).

Exploring the Link Between Task Complexity and Students’ Affective States During Engineering Laboratory Activities

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qianyu Hu ◽  
Shruthi Bezawada ◽  
Allison Gray ◽  
Conrad Tucker ◽  
Timothy Brick
Keyword(s):  
Task Complexity ◽  
Affective State ◽  
Dropping Out ◽  
Affective States ◽  
Weak Correlation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Fundamental Understanding ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
And Task

Assessment and feedback play an instrumental role in an individual’s learning process. Continued assistance is required to help students learn better and faster. This need is especially prominent in engineering laboratories where students must perform a wide range of tasks using different machines. One approach to understanding how students feel towards using certain machines is to assess their affective states while they use these machines. Affective state can be defined as the state of feeling an emotion. The authors of this work hypothesize that there is a correlation between students’ perceived affective states and task complexity. By adopting the Wood’s complexity model, the authors propose to assess how the correlations of perceived affective states of students change while they perform tasks of different complexity. In this study, each student performs a “hard” and an “easy” task on the same machine. Each student is given the same tasks using the same materials. Knowledge gained from testing this hypothesis will provide a fundamental understanding of the tasks that negatively impact students’ affective states and risk them potentially dropping out of STEM tracks, and the tasks that positively impact students’ affective states and encourage them to engage in more STEM-related activities. A case study involving 22 students using a power saw machine is conducted. Perceived affective states and completion time were collected. It was found that task complexity has an effect on subjects’ affective states. In addition, we observed some weak correlation between some of the perceived affective states and laboratory task performance. The distribution of correlation between affective states may change as the tasks change. With the knowledge of the relationship between task complexity and affective states, there is the potential to predict students’ affective states before starting a given engineering task.

Relationship between Rated Degree of Familiarity with Individual Sentences and the Extent of Recall of Connected Discourse

1966 ◽  
Vol 19 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1195-1202 ◽  
Author(s):  
John A. Mills ◽  
Alan Nicolas-Fanourakis
Keyword(s):  
Rating Scale ◽  
Interference Theory ◽  
Connected Discourse ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship

An assessment was made of the strength and direction of the relationship between rated degree of familiarity for connected discourse and the extent of recall of such material. The experimental material consisted of two short passages of prose (a narrative and an argument) and of a rating scale containing all the sentences from these passages inserted randomly among other individual sentences selected from a wide range of sources. 20 Ss provided both recall scores for the passages (which were presented whole) and familiarity ratings for the sentences in the rating scale. When recall scores for the individual sentences were correlated with the mean ratings, a positive and significant value was found. The bearing of this finding on (he expectations of interference theory is discussed.

Coordinating concurrent legal orders in the prosecution of international crimes

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 316-344
Author(s):  
BEATRICE I. BONAFÉ
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Law ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
International Criminal Law ◽  
International Crimes ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractInternational criminal law provides a particularly interesting case study for the proliferation of legal orders as it helps to understand the types of uncertainties their interaction may entail with respect to the position of the individual as well as the solutions that may be adopted in that respect. This article analyses a selected number of substantive and procedural uncertainties that originate in the relationship between international criminal law and domestic legal orders. The purpose of the discussion is to identify the particular legal devices that have been elaborated in order to ensure the coordination between these legal orders, and to suggest areas in which a better coordination is still to be achieved.

Problem-based L2 learning: self-negotiated linguistic cognition

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ding Xiaowei
Keyword(s):  
The Self ◽  
Cognitive Mechanisms ◽  
Collective Self ◽  
L2 Learning ◽  
Teachers And Students ◽  
Consistent Feature ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Linguistic Cognition

AbstractThe existing literature has revealed that Problem-based Learning (PBL) can improve the cognitive competence of learners, but few studies focus on L2 learning from the perspective of students, or on the relationship between PBL and linguistic cognition. Based on students’ reflective journals, the researcher’s observation notes, and interviews with teachers and students, this case study describes the individual and collective self-negotiations during a Problem-Based L2 Learning (PBLL) practice of 157 non-English majors at three universities in Beijing. The current study makes a distinction between surface and deep self-negotiations, and confirms the conception of the self-negotiated L2 cognition of PBLL learners. The research results show (1) that the self-negotiation is a consistent feature of PBLL because the whole PBLL process comprises the cyclic intertwining of individual and collective self-negotiations, (2) that L2 learners manage to achieve individual and collective self-negotiations through cognitive mechanisms of linking, riffling and converging, and (3) that deep self-negotiations in PBLL are more dynamic, interactive, and generative. Pedagogical implications, research limitations, and future directions are also discussed.

scholarly journals Sampling for Plant Disease Incidence

1999 ◽  
Vol 89 (11) ◽  
pp. 1088-1103 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. V. Madden ◽  
G. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Power Law ◽  
Binomial Distribution ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Sequential Sampling ◽  
Cluster Sampling ◽  
Diseased Plant ◽  
Ratio Test ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Sequential Probability ◽  
The Relationship

Knowledge of the distribution of diseased plant units (such as leaves, plants, or roots) or of the relationship between the variance and mean incidence is essential to efficiently sample for diseased plant units. Cluster sampling, consisting of N sampling units of n individuals each, is needed to determine whether the binomial or beta-binomial distribution describes the data or to estimate parameters of the binary power law for disease incidence. The precision of estimated disease incidence can then be evaluated under a wide range of settings including the hierarchical sampling of groups of individuals, the various levels of spatial heterogeneity of disease, and the situation when all individuals are disease free. Precision, quantified with the standard error or the width of the confidence interval for incidence, is directly related to N and inversely related to the degree of heterogeneity (characterized by the intracluster correlation, ρ). Based on direct estimates of ρ (determined from the θ parameter of the beta-binomial distribution or from the observed variance) or a model predicting ρ as a function of incidence (derived from the binary power law), one can calculate, before a sampling bout, the value of N needed to achieve a desired level of precision. The value of N can also be determined during a sampling bout using sequential sampling methods, either to estimate incidence with desired precision or to test a hypothesis about true disease incidence. In the latter case, the sequential probability ratio test is shown here to be useful for classifying incidence relative to a hypothesized threshold when the data follows the beta-binomial distribution with either a fixed ρ or a ρ that depends on incidence.

scholarly journals Why Do People Support Online Crowdfunding Charities? A Case Study From China

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huifang Jiao ◽  
Lamei Qian ◽  
Tianzhuo Liu ◽  
Lijun Ma
Keyword(s):  
Social Influence ◽  
Positive Emotions ◽  
Financial Constraints ◽  
Social Ties ◽  
Present Contribution ◽  
Intrinsic Motivations ◽  
Future Return ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship

Whereas the effect of people’s motivations to give to traditional, off-line charities has been extensively investigated, their motivations to support online charitable crowdfunding projects are largely unexplored. The present study examines the influences of extrinsic motivations (such as reputation, the wish to signal a certain image; and reciprocity, the expectation on future return for their present contribution), intrinsic motivations (such as a sense of belonging, the feeling of belonging to an integral part of a positive community; joy of giving, the anticipated positive emotions experienced by helping others; altruism, intrinsic desire to help others without expectation of a return; and financial constraints, individuals’ personally felt financial stresses induced by donations), and social interactions (such as social influence, people’s perception of how their close acquaintances believe they should support the project; and social ties, the strength of the relationship between the individual and the project initiator) on intentions to support charitable crowdfunding behaviors, namely, the willingness to share (WTS) project information and the intention to donate (ITD) money. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses on self-reported survey data from 617 respondents in China reveal support for the hypotheses. The results show that intrinsic motivations and social ties are predictors for both supporting behaviors. Reputation and social influence motivate people to share projects, but have no significant effects on their ITD. Reciprocity is positively, and financial constraints are negatively, related to ITD but have no significant effects on WTS. These findings offer insights into the motivations driving individuals’ participation in charitable crowdfunding. The implications for both platforms and fundraisers are discussed.

scholarly journals NARROW VS WIDE RANGE OF EQUIVALENCE AND REGULATION OF ACTIVITY IN DIFFICULT LIFE SITUATIONS

2020 ◽  
pp. 141-146
Author(s):  
Marina A. Krylova
Keyword(s):  
Mental Representation ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Problem Situation ◽  
Life Situation ◽  
Protective Mechanisms ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Regulation Of Activity ◽  
The Individual ◽  
And Coping ◽  
The Relationship

The article presents theoretical and empirical studies of cognitive and stylistic characteristics of a person and their connection with the regulation of activity (coping behaviour, mechanisms of psychological protection). The problem of mental representation of a difficult life situation is raised. It is said that the link between the cognitive and stylistic characteristics of the individual and coping, protective mechanisms, is the assessment of the situation, its mental representation. The paper describes the results of a study of a narrow vs wide range of equivalence, assessment by representatives of different cognitive poles of difficult life situations, the relationship with coping and psychological defences. Significant differences in the regulation of personal activity in a problem situation are revealed. Thus, respondents with a wide range of equivalence (n=32) are more likely to resort to coping strategies such as Escape-Avoidance, Distancing and Confrontational coping. In defence mechanisms, they prefer Substitution, Reactive formations, and Displacement. In assessments of the situation, they are less likely to give such characteristics: Good, Full, Bright. It is also statistically proven that there are a small number of relationships in this group between the assessment of the situation and the regulation of activity. It is concluded that respondents with a narrow range of equivalence (n=38) give a more diverse assessment of a difficult life situation, which does not always contribute to a quick solution of the problem.

scholarly journals Means, Motives and Opportunity: determinants of community health worker performance

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. e001790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aparna John ◽  
Thomas Newton-Lewis ◽  
Shuchi Srinivasan
Keyword(s):  
Community Health ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Worker Performance ◽  
Performance Problem ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Job Role

The performance of community health workers (CHWs) typically depends on the interaction between their motivation (their intent to achieve personal and organisational goals) and the constraints that they face in doing so. These constraints can be both at the individual level, for example, whether the worker has the skills and knowledge required to deliver on their job role, and the organisational level, for example, whether the worker is provided with the resources required to perform. Designing interventions to improve the performance of CHWs requires identifying the constraints to performance in a particular context. Existing frameworks on CHW performance tend to be derived empirically, identifying a broad range of intervention design and contextual factors that have been shown to influence CHW performance. These may not always be able to guide policy makers to identify the precise cause of a specific performance problem in a particular context and develop an appropriate policy response. This article presents a framework to help practitioners and researchers diagnose the constraints to performance of CHWs and guide programmatic and policy responses. The Means, Motives and Opportunity (MMO) framework has been adapted from the SaniFOAM framework used to identify the determinants of sanitation behaviours. It is based on three interdependent and interacting domains: means (whether an individual is capable of performing), motives (whether an individual wants to perform) and opportunity (whether the individual has the chance to perform). A wide range of data sources are expected to be used when applying the MMO framework, especially qualitative research that captures the perspectives and lived realities of CHWs and their communities. In this article, we demonstrate how the MMO framework can be applied to identify the constraints to CHW performance using the case study of Anganwadi Workers (village nutrition workers) in Bihar, India.

Multimodel and Vegetation Indices for Drought Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study of Afar Region in Ethiopia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashenif Melese ◽  
K. V. Suryabhagavan ◽  
M. Balakrishnan
Keyword(s):  
Social Factors ◽  
Vegetation Indices ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Effective Management ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Afar Region ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Relationship

Drought is a water related climatic natural disaster affecting wide range of environmental, biological and social factors. Short, poor and delayed rainfall in 2015 caused critical water shortage, livestock causality and decline in milk production in the pastoral areas of Ethiopia. The relationship between rainfall and vegetation indices was analyzed to identify drought-vulnerable areas in Afar region of Ethiopia using 11 years time series of decadal NDVI, VCI, DSI and SPI using SPOT (2005-2013) and PROVA-V (2014-2015) data. For the validation of drought indices, correlation and regression analyses between NDVI and rainfall (r = 75%), NDVI and crop yield, and VCI and rainfall (r = 90%) were done. The findings showed that there was extreme drought in the Afar region in 2005, 2009, 2011 and 2015. The region was highly prone to drought, even though its severity levels varied in different years. Drought was severe, longer and intense in most of the areas in the region, adversely affecting agricultural productivity and livestock maintenance and management. Assessments of such natural disasters are useful to plan mitigative measures in advance for effective management programmes, including drought hazards.

scholarly journals More than Just Food: Food Insecurity and Resilient Place Making through Community Self-Organising

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2942 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan K. Blake
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Community Resources ◽  
Time Activity ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
The Face ◽  
Individual Scale ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Community Spaces ◽  
The Relationship

This research considers the relationship between neoliberalism, poverty and food insecurity and how this impacts on the ability of a community to self-organise and become resilient. Specifically, it examines shocks imposed by the implementation of austerity policy and neoliberal welfare reform and the longer term individualisation that gives rise to greater vulnerability to such shocks and how community organisations encourage different levels of resilience in the face of this. Original findings from case study and qualitative analysis are twofold. Firstly, food insecurity effects are not only hunger and poor health experienced at the individual scale, but they also extend into places through the loss of social networks, erosion of community spaces, denigration of local foodscapes and collective de-skilling that limits the community resources needed for self-organising. Secondly, the ways in which food support is provided in communities has implications for how communities can regain the resources they need to be able to enact resilience in the face of trouble and difficulty. As such, the research demonstrates that self-organising is more than free-time activity; in these conditions, the capacity to self-organise is a vital community asset that is necessary for building resilience and social sustainability. As such, policy responses to poverty should take a multi-scale approach.

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