scholarly journals EVALUATING HYDROLOGIC MODEL PERFORMANCE OF GLOBAL AND LOCAL WEATHER DATA INPUTS

2021 ◽  
Vol XLVI-4/W6-2021 ◽  
pp. 265-271
Author(s):  
J. Serrano ◽  
J. M. Jamilla ◽  
B. C. Hernandez ◽  
E. Herrera
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Local Weather

Abstract. Runoffs from hydrologic models are often used in flood models, among other applications. These runoffs are converted from rainfall, signifying the importance of weather data accuracy. A common challenge for modelers is local weather data sparsity in most watersheds. Global weather datasets are often used as alternative. This study investigates the statistical significance and accuracy between using local weather data for hydrologic models and using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), a global weather dataset. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to compare the two weather data inputs in terms of generated discharges. Both long-term and event-based results were investigated to compare the models against absolute discharge values. The basin’s average total annual rainfall from the CFSR-based model (4062 mm) was around 1.5 times the local weather-based model (2683 mm). These basin precipitations yielded annual average flows of 53.4 cms and 26.7 cms for CFSR-based and local weather-based models, respectively. For the event-based scenario, the dates Typhoon Ketsana passed through the Philippine Area of Responsibility were checked. CFSR only read a spatially averaged maximum daily rainfall of 18.8 mm while the local gauges recorded 157.2 mm. Calibration and validation of the models were done using the observed discharges in Sto. Niño Station. The calibration of local weather-based model yielded satisfactory results for the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), percent of bias (PBIAS), and ratio of the RMSE to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR). Meanwhile, the calibration of CFSR model yielded unsatisfactory values for all three parameters.

scholarly journals Using satellite-based evapotranspiration estimates to improve the structure of a simple conceptual rainfall–runoff model

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 879-896 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tirthankar Roy ◽  
Hoshin V. Gupta ◽  
Aleix Serrat-Capdevila ◽  
Juan B. Valdes
Keyword(s):  
Model Performance ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Actual Evapotranspiration ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Daily Water ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model

Abstract. Daily, quasi-global (50° N–S and 180° W–E), satellite-based estimates of actual evapotranspiration at 0.25° spatial resolution have recently become available, generated by the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). We investigate the use of these data to improve the performance of a simple lumped catchment-scale hydrologic model driven by satellite-based precipitation estimates to generate streamflow simulations for a poorly gauged basin in Africa. In one approach, we use GLEAM to constrain the evapotranspiration estimates generated by the model, thereby modifying daily water balance and improving model performance. In an alternative approach, we instead change the structure of the model to improve its ability to simulate actual evapotranspiration (as estimated by GLEAM). Finally, we test whether the GLEAM product is able to further improve the performance of the structurally modified model. Results indicate that while both approaches can provide improved simulations of streamflow, the second approach also improves the simulation of actual evapotranspiration significantly, which substantiates the importance of making diagnostic structural improvements to hydrologic models whenever possible.

Predictably Predictable -  The Role of Catchment Characteristics and Complexity.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophia Eugeni ◽  
Eric Vaags ◽  
Steven V. Weijs
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Complexity Analysis ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Hydrologic Modelling

<p>Accurate hydrologic modelling is critical to effective water resource management. As catchment attributes strongly influence the hydrologic behaviors in an area, they can be used to inform hydrologic models to better predict the discharge in a basin. Some basins may be more difficult to accurately predict than others. The difficulty in predicting discharge may also be related to the complexity of the discharge signal. The study establishes the relationship between a catchment’s static attributes and hydrologic model performance in those catchments, and also investigates the link to complexity, which we quantify with measures of compressibility based in information theory. </p><p>The project analyzes a large national dataset, comprised of catchment attributes for basins across the United States, paired with established performance metrics for corresponding hydrologic models. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was completed on the catchment attributes data to determine the strongest modes in the input. The basins were clustered according to their catchment attributes and the performance within the clusters was compared. </p><p>Significant differences in model performance emerged between the clusters of basins. For the complexity analysis, details of the implementation and technical challenges will be discussed, as well as preliminary results.</p>

Rainfall erosivity and its estimation for Australia's tropics

Soil Research ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 143 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Yu
Keyword(s):  
Model Performance ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Erosivity ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
R Factor ◽  
Different Seasons ◽  
Monthly Distribution ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Parameter Values

Pluviograph data at 6-min intervals for 41 sites in the tropics of Australia were used to compute the rainfall and runoff factor (R-factor) for the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and a daily rainfall erosivity model was validated for these tropical sites. Mean annual rainfall varies from about 300 mm at Jervois (015602) to about 4000 at Tully (032042). The corresponding R-factor ranges from 1080 to 33500 MJ·mm/(ha ·h·year). For these tropical sites, both rainfall and rainfall erosivity are highly seasonal with a single peak in February mostly. Summer months (November–April) typically contribute about 80% of annual rainfall and about 90% of the R-factor. The daily erosivity model performed better for the tropical sites with a marked wet season in summer in comparison to model performance in temperate regions of Australia where peak rainfall and peak rainfall erosivity may occur in different seasons. A set of regional parameters depending on seasonal rainfall was developed so that the R-factor and its seasonal distribution can be estimated for sites without pluviograph data. The prediction error using the regional parameter values is about 20% for the R-factor and 1% for its monthly distribution for these tropical sites.

scholarly journals An Operation-Based Scheme for a Multiyear and Multipurpose Reservoir to Enhance Macroscale Hydrologic Models

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 270-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiping Wu ◽  
Ji Chen
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Reservoir Storage ◽  
Multipurpose Reservoir

Abstract This paper develops an operation-based numerical scheme for simulating storage in and outflow from a multiyear and multipurpose reservoir at a daily time step in order to enhance the simulation capacity of macroscale land surface hydrologic models. In the new scheme, besides the purpose of flood control, three other operational purposes—hydropower generation, downstream water supply, and water impoundment—are considered, and accordingly three related decision-based parameters are introduced. The new scheme is then integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is a macroscale hydrologic model. The observed water storage and outflow from a multiyear and multipurpose reservoir, the Xinfengjiang Reservoir in southern China, are used to examine the new scheme. Compared with two other reservoir operation schemes—namely, a modified existing reservoir operation scheme in SWAT (i.e., the target release scheme) and a multilinear regression scheme—the new scheme can give a consistently better simulation of the reservoir storage and outflow. Furthermore, through a sensitivity analysis, this study shows that the three decision-based parameters can represent the significance of each operational purpose in different periods and the new scheme can advance the flexibility and capability of the simulation of the reservoir storage and outflow.

scholarly journals Parameter-dependent convergence bounds and complexity measure for a class of conceptual hydrological models

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 443-463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saket Pande ◽  
Luis A. Bastidas ◽  
Sandjai Bhulai ◽  
Mac McKee
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Convergence Rates ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Complexity Measure ◽  
Model Complexity ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Complexity Measures

We provide analytical bounds on convergence rates for a class of hydrologic models and consequently derive a complexity measure based on the Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) generalization theory. The class of hydrologic models is a spatially explicit interconnected set of linear reservoirs with the aim of representing globally nonlinear hydrologic behavior by locally linear models. Here, by convergence rate, we mean convergence of the empirical risk to the expected risk. The derived measure of complexity measures a model's propensity to overfit data. We explore how data finiteness can affect model selection for this class of hydrologic model and provide theoretical results on how model performance on a finite sample converges to its expected performance as data size approaches infinity. These bounds can then be used for model selection, as the bounds provide a tradeoff between model complexity and model performance on finite data. The convergence bounds for the considered hydrologic models depend on the magnitude of their parameters, which are the recession parameters of constituting linear reservoirs. Further, the complexity of hydrologic models not only varies with the magnitude of their parameters but also depends on the network structure of the models (in terms of the spatial heterogeneity of parameters and the nature of hydrologic connectivity).

scholarly journals Hydrologic Model Evaluation and Assessment of Projected Climate Change Impacts Using Bias-Corrected Stream Flows

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2312
Author(s):  
Joseph A. Daraio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Stream Flows

Hydrologic models driven by downscaled meteorologic data from general circulation models (GCM) should be evaluated using long-term simulations over a historical period. However, simulations driven by GCM data cannot be directly evaluated using observed flows, and the confidence in the results can be relatively low. The objectives of this paper were to bias correct simulated stream flows from calibrated hydrologic models for two basins in New Jersey, USA, and evaluate model performance in comparison to uncorrected simulations. Then, we used stream flow bias correction and flow duration curves (FDCs) to evaluate and assess simulations driven by statistically downscaled GCMs for the historical period and the future time slices 2041–2070 and 2071–2099. Bias correction of stream flow from simulations increased confidence in the performance of two previously calibrated hydrologic models. Results indicated there was no difference in projected FDCs for uncorrected and bias-corrected flows in one basin, while this was not the case in the second basin. This result provided greater confidence in projected stream flow changes in the former basin and implied more uncertainty in projected stream flows in the latter. Applications in water resources can use the methods described to evaluate the performance of GCM-driven simulations and assess the potential impacts of climate change with an appropriate level of confidence in the model results.

scholarly journals Rainfall-runoff simulations in the Lukovska River Basin with the HEC-HMS model

2019 ◽  
pp. 33-60
Author(s):  
Ranka Eric ◽  
Andrijana Todorovic ◽  
Jasna Plavsic ◽  
Vesna Djukic
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Generation Mechanisms ◽  
Event Based

Hydrologic models are important for effective water resources management at a basin level. This paper describes an application of the HEC-HMS hydrologic model for simulations of flood hydrographs in the Lukovska River basin. Five flood events observed at the Mercez stream gauge were available for modelling purposes. These events are from two distinct periods and two seasons with different prevailing runoff generation mechanisms. Hence the events are assigned to either ?present? or ?past?, and ?spring? or ?summer? group. The optimal parameter sets of each group are obtained by averaging the optimal parameters for individual events within the group. To assess model transferability, its applicability for simulation of flood events which are not considered in the model calibration, a cross-validation is performed. The results indicate that model parameters vary across the events, and that parameter transfer generally leads to considerable errors in hydrograph peaks and volumes, with the exception of simulation of summer events with ?spring? parameters. Based on these results, recommendations for event-based modeling are given.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the SWAT model performance for simulating river discharge in the Himalayan and tropical basins of Asia

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 846-860 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangam Shrestha ◽  
Manish Shrestha ◽  
Pallav Kumar Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
High Discharge ◽  
Climatic Regions ◽  
Resources Planning ◽  
Deviation Ratio ◽  
Standard Deviation Ratio

Abstract This study evaluated the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model performance for 11 basins located in two contrasting climatic regions of Asia: the Himalayan and the Southeast Asian tropics. A large variation existed among the case study basins in relation to basin size (330–78,529 km2), topography (377–4,310 metres above sea level) and annual rainfall (1,273–2,500 mm). Performance of the model was evaluated using R2 and wR2 for a low discharge event; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), R2 and RMSE-observation standard deviation ratio (RSR) for high discharge events; and NSE, R2, PBIAS, RSR, NSErel and wR2 for the overall hydrographs. SWAT was found to be suitable for both climatic regions but yielded better performance in the Himalayan basins (NSE 0.72–0.81 at calibration) compared to the tropical basins (NSE 0.36–0.72 at calibration). Although most of the models underperformed in either low or high discharge events, a few of those remaining showed a balance between the extremes, proving that it is possible to achieve a balanced hydrograph with the SWAT model. The consistency of model performance across numerous Himalayan and tropical basins in the area confirmed the versatility and reliability of SWAT as a hydrological model and suitable tool for water resources planning and management.

scholarly journals Impact of model complexity and precipitation data products on modeled streamflow

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 588-599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth J. Tobin ◽  
Marvin E. Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
South Texas ◽  
Model Complexity ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Sensing Platforms ◽  
Southern Georgia

With the proliferation of remote sensing platforms as well as numerous ground products based on weather radar estimation, there are now multiple options for precipitation data beyond traditional rain gauges for which most hydrologic models were originally designed. This study evaluates four precipitation products as input for generating streamflow simulations using two hydrologic models that significantly vary in complexity. The four precipitation products include two ground products from the National Weather Service: the Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) and rain gauge data. The two satellite products come from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and include the TRMM 3B42 Research Version 6, which has a built-in ground bias correction, and the real-time TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis. The two hydrologic models utilized include the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Gridded Surface and Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA). Simulations were conducted in three, moderate- to large-sized basins across the southern United States, the San Casimiro (South Texas), Skuna (northern Mississippi), Alapaha (southern Georgia), and were run for over 2 years. This study affirms the realization that input precipitation is at least as important as the choice of hydrologic model.

scholarly journals Flood hazard and change impact assessments may profit from rethinking model calibration strategies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela I. Brunner ◽  
Lieke A. Melsen ◽  
Andrew W. Wood ◽  
Oldrich Rakovec ◽  
Naoki Mizukami ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Calibration ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Hazard Assessments ◽  
Flood Characteristics ◽  
Flood Flow

Abstract. Floods cause large damages, especially if they affect large regions. Assessments of current, local and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. However, uncertainties in simulated floods can be considerable and yield unreliable hazard and climate change impact assessments. A reliable hydrologic model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and spatial aspects of flooding, which is, however, not guaranteed especially when using standard model calibration metrics. In this paper we investigate how flood timing, magnitude and spatial variability are represented by an ensemble of hydrological models when calibrated on streamflow using the Kling–Gupta efficiency metric, an increasingly common metric of hydrologic model performance. We compare how four well-known models (SAC, HBV, VIC, and mHM) represent (1) flood characteristics and their spatial patterns; and (2) how they translate changes in meteorologic variables that trigger floods into changes in flood magnitudes. Our results show that both the modeling of local and spatial flood characteristics is challenging. They further show that changes in precipitation and temperature are not necessarily well translated to changes in flood flow, which makes local and regional flood hazard assessments even more difficult for future conditions. We conclude that models calibrated on integrated metrics such as the Kling–Gupta efficiency alone have limited reliability in flood hazard assessments, in particular in regional and future assessments, and suggest the development of alternative process-based and spatial evaluation metrics.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document