scholarly journals Sea cliff instability susceptibility at regional scale: a statistically based assessment in southern Algarve, Portugal

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 1965-2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. M. S. F. Marques ◽  
R. Matildes ◽  
P. Redweik

Abstract. Mass movements of different types and sizes are the main processes of sea cliff evolution and also a considerable source of natural hazard, making its assessment a relevant issue in terms of human losses prevention and land use regulations. To address the assessment of the spatial component of sea cliff hazard, i.e. the susceptibility, a statistically based study was made to assess the capacity of a set of conditioning factors to express the occurrence of sea cliff failures affecting areas located along their top. The study was based on the application of the bivariate Information Value and multivariate Logistic regression statistical methods, using a set of predisposing factors for cliff failures, mainly related with geology (lithology, bedding dip, faults) and geomorphology (maximum and mean slope, height, aspect, plan curvature, toe protection) which were correlated with a photogrammetry based inventory of cliff failures occurred in a 60 yr period (1947–2007). The susceptibility models were validated against the inventory data using standard success rate and ROC curves, and provided encouraging results, indicating that the proposed approaches are effective for susceptibility assessment. The results obtained also stress the need for improvement of the predisposing factors to be used in this type of studies and the need of detailed and systematic cliff failures inventories.

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3185-3203 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. M. S. F. Marques ◽  
R. Matildes ◽  
P. Redweik

Abstract. Sea cliff evolution is dominated by the occurrence of slope mass movements of different types and sizes, which are a considerable source of natural hazard, making their assessment a relevant issue in terms of human loss prevention and land use regulations. To address the assessment of the spatial component of sea cliff hazards, i.e. the susceptibility, a statistically based study was made to assess the capacity of a set of conditioning factors to express the occurrence of sea cliff failures affecting areas located along their top. The study was based on the application of the bivariate information value and multivariate logistic regression statistical methods, using a set of predisposing factors for cliff failures, mainly related to geology (lithology, bedding dip, faults) and geomorphology (maximum and mean slope, height, aspect, plan curvature, toe protection), which were correlated with a photogrammetry-based inventory of cliff failures that occurred in a 60 yr period (1947–2007). The susceptibility models were validated against the inventory data using standard success rate and ROC curves, and provided encouraging results, indicating that the proposed approaches are effective for susceptibility assessment. The results obtained also stress the need for improvement of the predisposing factors to be used in this type of study and the need for detailed and systematic cliff failure inventories.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (24) ◽  
pp. 9038
Author(s):  
Nuno Lapa ◽  
Fernando M. F. S. Marques ◽  
Aurora Rodrigues

Mass wasting events are the main processes of sedimentary dynamics that affect the marine environment and which, due to their spatial and temporal variability, are difficult to study and evaluate. Affecting the marine floor, between the coastline and the abyssal plain, these processes are triggered by multiple causes, having different magnitudes and causing drastic changes and impacts on the marine environment and human activities. In this paper, the submarine landslide susceptibility affecting the upper course of the Aveiro canyon (West Iberian Margin) is addressed using statistical models which are based on the statistical relations between a landslide inventory and the landslide predisposing factors bathymetry, sediment cover, slope angle, aspect and curvature. The statistical methods were the widely proven bivariate information value (IV) and the multivariate logistic regression (LR). The model results were validated against the landslide inventory using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding area under the curve (AUC), which provided satisfactory results, with IV AUC = 0.79 and LR AUC = 0.83, in spite of the limitations of the databases used in this study. The results obtained suggest that these methods may be useful for the preliminary assessment of sea floor slope instability at a regional scale of analysis, enabling the selection of sites to be studied with much more detailed and expensive methods.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Pereira ◽  
J.G Santos ◽  
M.J Loureiro ◽  
F Ferreira ◽  
A.R Almeida ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction Right ventricular (RV) adaptation to the increased pulmonary load is a key determinant of outcomes in pulmonary hypertension (PH). Pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) is widely recognized as haemodynamic measure of RV overload. Cardiac filling pressure (CFP), RV stroke work (RVSW), pulmonary artery (PA) compliance and PA pulsatility index (PAPi) are emerging as new haemodynamic parameters to assess RV function. Aims To assess the predictive value of CFP, RVSW, PA compliance and PAPi in PH and to compare it with standard haemodynamic parameters. Methods Retrospective study including all consecutive right heart catheterizations performed from April/2009 to October/2019 in a PH referral centre. Procedures presenting PH were selected [mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP) >20 mmHg, according to the new definition of the 6st World Symposium on PH]. CFP was calculated as [right atrial pressure (RAP) − pulmonary capillary wedge pressure], value >0.63 associated with RV failure; RVSW as CO / [(heart rate × (mPAP-RAP) × 0.0136], value <15; PA compliance [SV / pulmonary arterial systolic pressure (PASP) − pulmonary arterial diastolic pressure (PADP)], value <2.5]; PAPi [(PSAP − PDAP) / RAP, value <1.85]. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify predictors of all-cause mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under curve (AUC) were used to assess discrimination power. Results From a total of 569 procedures, 470 fulfilled PH criteria: mean age 57.9±16.0 years, 67.7% female, 35.5% performed under pulmonary vasodilator therapy. Pre-capillary PH was diagnosed in 71.9% of cases. Chronic thromboembolic PH was the most common subtype (34.4%). Concerning standard haemodynamic parameters: mPAP was 39.0±12.0 mmHg, mean RAP 8.0±5.0 mmHg, mean RVP 7.5±5.0 uWood and CI 2.5±0.8 L/min/m2. Median value of CFP was 0.6 (IQR 0.4–0.8), RVSW 15.2 (IQR 9.7–25.0), PA compliance 2.1 (IQR 0.9–2.9) and PAPi 5.3 (IQR 3.2–8.5). All-cause mortality rate was 22.8%. Patients experiencing adverse events had lower values of cardiac index (2.3±0.6 vs 2.6±0.8 L/min/m2, p<0.01), RVSW (11.2 vs 16.7, p<0.01) and PA compliance (2.2 vs 2.9, p<0.01) and higher values of PVR (10.0±5.5 versus 6.8±4.6 uWood, p<0.01) and mean RAP (9.9±6.1 versus 7.4±4.5, p<0.01). Multivariate logistic regression identified 2 independent predictors of adverse events: mean RAP (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02–1.13, p<0.01) and PVR (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.06–1.17, p<0.01). According to the ROC curves, new haemodynamic parameters did not have acceptable discrimination power to adverse events occurrence (figure). Conclusions In this study, new haemodynamic parameters to assess RV overload in PH were not independent predictors of adverse events as opposite to standard haemodynamic parameters. Further studies are needed to clarify their predictive value, as it has major implications for understanding the arterial load in diseases of the pulmonary circulation. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianwen Luo ◽  
Yutong Wang ◽  
Xuefeng Shan ◽  
Ye Bai ◽  
Chun Huang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The identification of the homogeneous and heterogeneous risk factors for different types of metastases in colorectal cancer (CRC) may shed light on the aetiology and help individualize prophylactic treatment. The present study characterized the incidence differences and identified the homogeneous and heterogeneous risk factors associated with distant metastases in CRC. Methods CRC patients registered in the SEER database between 2010 and 2016 were included in this study. Logistic regression was used to analyse homogeneous and heterogeneous risk factors for the occurrence of different types of metastases. Nomograms were constructed to predict the risk for developing metastases, and the performance was quantitatively assessed using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curve. Results A total of 204,595 eligible CRC patients were included in our study, and 17.07% of them had distant metastases. The overall incidences of liver metastases, lung metastases, bone metastases, and brain metastases were 15.34%, 5.22%, 1.26%, and 0.29%, respectively. The incidence of distant metastases differed by age, gender, and the original CRC sites. Poorly differentiated grade, more lymphatic metastasis, higher carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and different metastatic organs were all positively associated with four patterns of metastases. In contrast, age, sex, race, insurance status, position, and T stage were heterogeneously associated with metastases. The calibration and ROC curves exhibited good performance for predicting distant metastases. Conclusions The incidence of distant metastases in CRC exhibited distinct differences, and the patients had homogeneous and heterogeneous associated risk factors. Although limited risk factors were included in the present study, the established nomogram showed good prediction performance.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2300
Author(s):  
Samy Elmahdy ◽  
Tarig Ali ◽  
Mohamed Mohamed

Mapping of groundwater potential in remote arid and semi-arid regions underneath sand sheets over a very regional scale is a challenge and requires an accurate classifier. The Classification and Regression Trees (CART) model is a robust machine learning classifier used in groundwater potential mapping over a very regional scale. Ten essential groundwater conditioning factors (GWCFs) were constructed using remote sensing data. The spatial relationship between these conditioning factors and the observed groundwater wells locations was optimized and identified by using the chi-square method. A total of 185 groundwater well locations were randomly divided into 129 (70%) for training the model and 56 (30%) for validation. The model was applied for groundwater potential mapping by using optimal parameters values for additive trees were 186, the value for the learning rate was 0.1, and the maximum size of the tree was five. The validation result demonstrated that the area under the curve (AUC) of the CART was 0.920, which represents a predictive accuracy of 92%. The resulting map demonstrated that the depressions of Mondafan, Khujaymah and Wajid Mutaridah depression and the southern gulf salt basin (SGSB) near Saudi Arabia, Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) borders reserve fresh fossil groundwater as indicated from the observed lakes and recovered paleolakes. The proposed model and the new maps are effective at enhancing the mapping of groundwater potential over a very regional scale obtained using machine learning algorithms, which are used rarely in the literature and can be applied to the Sahara and the Kalahari Desert.


1991 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 442-448 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kehler ◽  
U. Albrechtsson ◽  
A. Andrésdóttir ◽  
P. Hochbergs ◽  
H. Lárusdóttir ◽  
...  

Inverted (positive) digital chest radiographs of patients with lung tumors were compared with commonly used (negative) digital images, consisting of one simulated normal and one contrast enhanced image. The first part of the material consisted of 80 patients of whom 40 had tumors and 40 were normal. Five radiologists with different experience reviewed the examinations. From their answers, ROC curves were constructed. The second part of the material consisted of 100 chest phantom examinations with a simulated tumor in the mediastinum (45 examinations) and/or the left lung (46 examinations). In 31 exposures there was no abnormality. These were reviewed by 3 observers and performed as an ROC study as well. There was no statistical difference between the different types of images or between the observers in the 2 studies.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denghui Wang ◽  
Jiang Zhu ◽  
Chang Deng ◽  
Zhixin Yang ◽  
Daixing Hu ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective: Few studies have evaluated the influence of HT and Multifocality on central lymph node metastases(CLNM) and lateral lymph node metastases(LLNM) of PTC. The present study focused on risk factors for lymph node metastasis in PTC according to the presence of HT or multifocality. Materials and methods:1413 patients were identified.The relationship between HT or multifocality and lymph nodemetastasis was analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression, ROC curves were constructed to show the predictive effect of each variable on the target outcome.Results: The PTCs with HT were more likely to be multifocal.(40.0% versus 17.5%,P <0.001). Compared to MPTC without HT, MPTC with HT showed a lower number of metastatic CLNs and LLNs (P < 0.05). HT was identifified as an independent protective factor for CLNM in all PTC patients (OR, 0.480; 95% CI, 0.359-0.643; P< .001) and in MPTC patients (OR, 0.094; 95% CI, 0.044-0.204; P < 0.001), the multicocality was independent risk factors for CLNM(OR, 2.316; 95% CI, 1.667-3.217; P< 0.001) and LLNM(OR, 2.004; 95% CI, 1.469-2.733; P< 0.001).The variables concluded HT or MPTC were screened to predict CLNM in all patients, CLNM in patients with MPTC and LLNM in all patients (AUCs: 0.731, 0.843 and 0.696, respectively, P < 0.0001). The two type of diseases existed concurrently may result in the decrease of CLNM and LLNM, AUCs of ROC to predict CLNM and LLNM are 0.696 and 0.63(P<0.0001). Conclusions: Our study identified multifocality as an independent risk factor predicting CLNM and LLNM in PTC patients. HT was proven to be a protective factor that reduced the CLNM risk in all patients and in patients with MPTC. The existence of both type of diseases can result in the reduction of CLNM and LLNM.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Kohrs ◽  
 Lotte de Vugt ◽  
Thomas Zieher ◽  
Alice Crespi ◽  
Mattia Rossi ◽  
...  

&lt;p&gt;Shallow landslides in alpine environments can constitute a serious threat to the exposed elements. The spatio-temporal occurrence of such slope movements is controlled by a combination of predisposing factors (e.g. topography), preparatory factors (e.g. wet periods, snow melting) and landslide triggers (e.g. heavy precipitation events). &amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For large study areas, landslide assessments frequently focus either on the static predisposing factors to estimate landslide susceptibility using data-driven procedures, or exclusively on the triggering events to derive empirical rainfall thresholds. For smaller areas, dynamic physical models can reasonably be parameterized to simultaneously account for static and dynamic landslide controls. &amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The recently accepted Proslide project aims to develop and test methods with the potential to improve the predictability of landslides for the Italian province of South Tyrol. It is envisaged to account for a variety of innovative input data at multiple spatio-temporal scales. In this context, we seek to exploit remote sensing data for the spatio-temporal description of landslide controlling factors (e.g. precipitation RADAR; satellite soil moisture) and to develop models that allow an integration of heterogeneous model inputs using both, data-driven approaches (regional scale) and physically-based models (catchment scale). This contribution presents the core ideas and methodical framework behind the Proslide project and its very first results (e.g. relationships between landslide observations and gridded daily precipitation data at regional scale).&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xia Li ◽  
Jiulong Cheng ◽  
Dehao Yu ◽  
Yangchun Han

Abstract Most landslide prediction models need to select non-landslides. At present, non-landslides mainly use subjective inference or random selection method, which makes it easy to select non-landslides in high-risk areas. To solve this problem and improve the accuracy of landslide prediction, the method of selecting non-landslide by Information value (IV) is proposed in this study. Firstly, 230 historical landslides and 10 landslide conditioning factors are extracted and interpreted by using Remote Sensing (RS) image, Geographic Information System (GIS) and field survey. Secondly, random, buffer, river channel or slope, and IV methods are used to obtain non-landslides, and the obtained non-landslides are applied to the popular SVM model for landslide hazard mapping (LHM) in western area of Tumen City. The landslide hazard map based on the river channel or slope method is seriously inconsistent with the actual situation of study area, Therefore, the three methods of random, buffer, and IV are verified and compared by accuracy, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under curves (AUC). The results show that the landslide prediction accuracy of the three methods is more than 80%, and the prediction accuracy is high, but the IV is higher. In addition, IV can identify the very high hazard regions with smaller area. Therefore, it is more reasonable to use IV to select non-landslides, and IV method is more practical in landslide prevention and engineering construction. The research results may be useful to provide basic information of landslide hazard for decision makers and planners.


2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 371-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
GUNTHER KALTENBÖCK

This article investigates the omission of the that-complementizer in extraposed subject clauses (e.g. It is obvious (that) she did it), which has so far received very little attention in the literature. Using corpus data from the British component of the International Corpus of English (ICE-GB) various potential conditioning factors are analysed. Of these the following are found to have a major impact on the choice of zero that: informality of the text category, type of matrix predicate, and information value of the complement clause. On the basis of these corpus results the article then proposes a unified explanation for the use of that or zero by positing an underlying abstract feature of ‘distance’; for the that-complementizer, a semantic residue of its original demonstrative use, which gives rise to different pragmatic interpretations, depending on the actual use of that in context.


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