Growth and trend analysis of area, production and yield of rice: A scenario of rice security in Bangladesh

Bangladesh positioned as third rice producing country in the world. In Bangladesh, regional growth and trend in rice production determinants, disparities and similarities of rice production environments are highly desirable. In this study, the secondary time series data of area, production, and yield of rice from 1969–70 to 2019–20 were used to investigate the growth and trend by periodic, regional, seasonal and total basis. Quality checking, trend fitting, and classification analysis were performed by the Durbin-Watson test, Exponential growth model, Cochrane-Orcutt iteration method and clustering method. The production contribution to the national rice production of Boro rice is increasing at 0.97% per year, where Aus and Aman season production contribution significantly decreased by 0.48% and 0.49% per year. Among the regions, Mymensingh, Rangpur, Bogura, Jashore, Rajshahi, and Chattogram contributed the most i.e., 13.9%, 9.8%, 8.6%, 8.6%, 8.2%, and 8.0%, respectively. Nationally, the area of Aus and Aman had a decreasing trend with a -3.63% and -0.16% per year, respectively. But, in the recent period (Period III) increasing trend was observed in the most regions. The Boro cultivation area is increasing with a rate of 3.57% per year during 1984–85 to 2019–20. High yielding variety adoption rate has increased over the period and in recent years it has found 72% for Aus, 73.5% for Aman, and 98.4% for Boro season. As a result, the yield of the Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons has been found increasing growth for most of the regions. We have identified different cluster regions in different seasons, indicating high dissimilarities among the rice production regions in Bangladesh. The region-wise actionable plan should be taken to rapidly adopt new varieties, management technologies and extension activities in lower contributor regions to improve productivity. Cluster-wise, policy strategies should be implemented for top and less contributor regions to ensure rice security of Bangladesh.

EVALUASI PERGESERAN STRUKTUR EKONOMI KOTA BENGKULU

The purpose of this research was to evaluate the shifting of economic structure of Bengkulu City. Base on BPS secondary time series data (2011-2019), descriftive analysis was used to evaluate the shifting economic structure. The result of this research was concluded that the economis structure was gradually shifting in secondary and tertier sector. The different variable and the amount of data usage in this analysis had different result in leading sectors. The first periods of 2014-2017, Bengkulu City has 10 leading sectors, and the second period of this research become 7 sectors. It was used PDRB data, and become 4 leading sectors when employment data used merely. When the data of PDRB and employment was combined to analyze the Bengkulu City leading sector, it’s just become 3 sectors. So the economy of Bengkulu City was dominated by the Providing Accommodation, Food and Drink sector, the Real Estate sector and the Education Sector.

Co-Movement between Tourist Arrivals of Inbound Tourism Markets in South Korea: Applying the Dynamic Copula Method Using Secondary Time Series Data

Tourism demand is severely affected by unpredicted events, which has prompted scholars to examine ways of predicting the effects of positive and negative shocks on tourism, to ensure a sustainable tourism industry. The purpose of this study was to investigate if non-linear dependence structures exist between tourist flows into South Korea from five major source countries, as South Korea has undergone fluctuations in tourist arrivals due to diverse circumstances and has complex relations with tourism source countries. Additionally, the study examines the structures of extreme tail dependence, which is indicated in the case of unexpected events, and identifies how co-movements vary over time through dynamic copula–GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) tests. The secondary time series data for the 2005–2019 period of tourist arrivals to Korea were derived from the Korea Tourism Knowledge and Information System for testing the copula models. The copula estimations indicate significant dependencies among all market pairs as well as the strongest dependence between China and Taiwan. Moreover, extreme tail dependence structures show co-movements for four pairs of tourism markets in only negative shocks, for five pairs in both positive and negative conditions, but no co-movement in the China–Taiwan pair. Finally, the dynamic dependence structures reveal that the China–Taiwan dependence is higher than the other time-varying dependence structures, implying that the two markets complement each other.

Growth and Instability Analysis of Pearl Millet Cultivation in India

The present study was undertaken to analyze growth and instability in terms of area, production and yield in a major pearl millet growing states of India. The study has employed the secondary time series data of the area, production and yield of pearl millet crop collected from 1997-1998 to 2016-17 for the major pearl millet crop-growing states of India. The results revealed that area under cultivation registered declined growth in all states and India except Uttar Pradesh. Gujarat showed overall negative growth in terms of area, production and yield. Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh found increased production and yield. High level of instability in terms of yield recorded in Rajasthan while, Gujarat, Haryana, Rajasthan and India witnessed a high degree of instability in terms of production during the entire period.

Optimalisasi Ekspor Produk Ekonomi Kreatif Indonesia Menuju Peningkatan Dayasaing

Indonesia’s creative economy product exports have not been optimal. The purpose of this study is to optimize the goals of creative economic development in Indonesia. This research was conducted using secondary time series data for the period 2010-2017. The research method uses linear programming and goal programming. The results showed that exports of creative economy products responded to an increase in export selling prices based on the demand behavior of the exports of creative economy products. The factor of export competitiveness of Indonesia’s creative economy products lies in the use of cheaper labor costs. Exports of creative economy products do not automatically increase, if the education level of the workforce increases, but rather comes from an increase in creativity. Fashion products are efficient products compared to producing exports of craft products and culinary products. Finally, the development of the creative economy is more optimal for the purpose of increasing exports of creative economy products than for the purpose of increasing employment, namely by producing fashion products.

ANALISIS PERTUMBUHAN DAN PERGESERAN SRUKTUR EKONOMI KABUPATEN INDUK DI PROVINSI BENGKULU

The purpose of this research was to analyze economic growth and shifting of economic structure of the origin district in Bengkulu Province. Base on BPS secondary time series data (2001-2017), descriftive analysis was used to analyze economic growth and shifting economic structure, specialty after the region otonomous era (OTDA). The DLQ and SSA method was used to determine the potential and leading sectors to increase economic performance. The result of this research was conclude that expansion of the the region in Bengkulu Provinsi has positif impact on economic development for the origin district. The economis structure was shifting from premier sector to secondary and tertier sector. The potential and leading sector after OTDA become more than before (from 4 or 5 sector to 7 untul 9 sector). Keywords : Dynamic Location Quotient 1, Shift Share Analysis 2, Economic Growth 3, Economic Structure 4, Potential and Leading Sector 5

Does Migration Outflow Reduce Income Inequality in the Sending Province?

Previous studies on the association between migration outflow and income inequality have shown mixed findings. Some find that migration outflow reduces income inequality, but others find that migration outflow increases income inequality. This study aims to analyze the effect of migration outflow on income inequality in Central Java Province with two control variables: mean years of schooling and minimum wage. Central Java was chosen as the research location because it is the province with the highest migration outflow. This study uses secondary, time series data for the period 2000-2018 consisting of income inequality as measured by the Gini ratio (percent), migration outflow (people), meanyears of schooling (years), and minimum wage (rupiah). Data were obtained from BPS Central Java and analyzed with multiple linear regression. The results show that migration outflow and mean years of schooling have a negative significant effect and minimum wage has a positive significant effect on income inequality. This findings imply that migration outflow and improvement of the quality of human resources through education can be solutions to reduce poverty and income inequality, while minimum wage actually increases inequality, which may be due to the large portion of population engaging in agriculture and the informal sector.

Confirmed and Unreported COVID-19-Like Illness Death Counts: An Assessment of Reporting Discrepancy

Objective: To assess the reporting discrepancy between officially confirmed COVID-19 death counts and unreported COVID-19-like illness (CLI) death counts. Study Design: The study is based on secondary time-series data. Methods: We used publicly available data to explore the differences between confirmed COVID-19 death counts and deaths with probable COVID-19 symptoms in Bangladesh between March 8, 2020, and July 18, 2020. Both tabular analysis and statistical tests were performed. Results: During the week ending May 9, 2020, the unreported CLI death count was higher than the confirmed COVID-19 death count; however, it was lower in the following weeks. On average, unreported CLI death counts were almost equal to the confirmed COVID-19 death counts during the study period. However, the reporting authority neither considers CLI deaths nor adjusts for potential seasonal influenza-like illness or other related deaths, which might produce incomplete and unreliable COVID-19 data and respective mortality rates. Conclusions: Deaths with probable COVID-19 symptoms needs to be included in provisional death counts in order to estimate an accurate COVID-19 mortality rate and to offer data-driven pandemic response strategies. An urgent initiative is needed to prepare a comprehensive guideline for reporting COVID-19 deaths.

Determinan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dalam Model Perekonomian Tiga Sektor

This study aims to analyze the determinants of economic growth on the three sector economic model. The research method used is a quantitative method with panel data regression analysis using STATA 15.0 software. This study uses secondary time series data for the period 2006-2018. The results of this study explain that consumption has an influence on economic growth between regions in Riau Province. In addition, investment and government expenditure variables do not have an influence on economic growth between regions in Riau Province.

Efficacy of incomplete metastasectomy in combination with targeted therapy in metastatic kidney cancer patients

Objective. To increase the effectiveness of drug treatment via systemic therapy (ST) in combination with incomplete cytoreductive interventions – incomplete metastasectomy (iME).Materials and methods. Three centers took part in the study. All 147 patients with mRCC received anticancer drug therapy. Part of them (n = 47) underwent surgery (iME) before or together with anticancer treatment, where iME meant complete metastasis excision within one organ with residual tissue in other organs (research group). Control group (n = 100) included patients who received only systemic antitumor treatment. Primary control point was overall survival (OS), secondary – time to progression.Results. Median OS in combined treatment group was 32 months, while in control group – 29 months (p = 0.21). When analyzing surgical stage in combined treatment, OS was statistically more significant in patients with iME before ST (n = 20) than in patients with two parallel treatment schemes: 46 and 31 months, respectively (p = 0.007). When analyzing metastases localization, it was found that iME is effective for metastases to distant lymph nodes and adrenal gland. Adrenalectomy (p = 0.03) and lymphadenectomy (p = 0.04) showed higher results than ST: 17 and 15 months versus 6 month, respectively. IME in patients with poor prognosis did not reveal any advantages: median OS reached 7 months, which was significantly inferior to the favorable prognosis group, where median OS was 25 months (p = 0.03).Conclusion. IME can be used as a part of combined treatment in mRCC patients. It should be considered as the first treatment stage with subsequent ST.