scholarly journals Financial Market and Inflation

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 90
Author(s):  
Yuqing Qi
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Inflation Risk ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual

Based on two dimensions of system risk, this paper studies the changes in the future inflation risk level, and uses the out-of-sample quantile R2  to further evaluate the predictive accuracy of different systemic risk indicators on inflation risk. Firstly, we compute two systemic risk indicators, MES and volatility, with data of Chinese financial institutions. And then we explore the amplification effect of these indicators on future inflation risk, under the framework of quantile regression. We find that systematic risk indicators have a strong predictive ability for the inflation level at various quantiles. MES indicator that reflects individual risk can better predict future deflation risk, while volatility index has a stronger ability to predict inflation risk. We also find that systemic risk indicators of different dimensions have different effects on inflation risk and deflation risk. In general, the MES index, which captures the individual risk of the organization, have a greater impact on the future inflation risk. While indicator that measures volatility in financial markets has more influence on the extreme lower tail of inflation rates. Finally, we predict the distribution of inflation in China from March 2020 to June 2021, and visually show the distribution trend of future inflation with forecast fan charts.

scholarly journals Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Pulmonary Infection in Esophageal Cancer

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuang LI ◽  
Jingwen Su ◽  
Qiyu Sui ◽  
Gongchao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Esophageal Cancer ◽  
Pulmonary Infection ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Individual Probability ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Development And Validation

Abstract Objective: The main aim of this study is to construct and validate a nomogram for estimating the risk of POI by investigating how perioperative features contribute to POI. Material and Methods: This cohort study enrolled 637 patients with esophageal cancer. Perioperative information on participants were collected to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting postoperative pulmonary infection in esophageal cancer. Predictive accuracy, discriminatory capability and clinical usefulness were evaluated by calibration curves, concordance index (C-index) and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that length of stay, albumin, intraoperative bleeding, and perioperative blood transfusion were independent predictors of POI. The nomogram for assessing individual risk of POI indicated good predictive accuracy in the primary cohort (C-index, 0.802) and validation cohort (C-index, 0.763). Good consistency between predicted risk and observed actual risk was presented as the calibration curve. The nomogram for estimating POI of esophageal cancer had superior net benefit with a wide range of threshold probabilities (4–81%). Conclusions: The present study provided a nomogram developed with perioperative features to assess the individual probability of infection may conducive to strengthen awareness of infection control and provide appropriate resource to manage patients at high-risk following esophagectomy.

scholarly journals The Leaders, the Laggers, and the “Vulnerables”

Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Veni Arakelian ◽  
Shatha Qamhieh Hashem
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Expected Shortfall ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Network Structures ◽  
Lag Effect ◽  
Marginal Expected Shortfall ◽  
The Individual

We examine the lead-lag effect between the large and the small capitalization financial institutions by constructing two global weekly rebalanced indices. We focus on the 10% of stocks that “survived” all the rebalancings by remaining constituents of the indices. We sort them according to their systemic importance using the marginal expected shortfall (MES), which measures the individual institutions’ vulnerability over the market, the network based MES, which captures the vulnerability of the risks generated by institutions’ interrelations, and the Bayesian network based MES, which takes into account different network structures among institutions’ interrelations. We also check if the lead-lag effect holds in terms of systemic risk implying systemic risk transmission from the large to the small capitalization, concluding a mixed behavior compared to the index returns. Additionally, we find that all the systemic risk indicators increase their magnitude during the financial crisis.

scholarly journals Calculating Premium Credibility Using the Buhlmann-Straub Modelwith Nonparametric Assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-32
Author(s):  
Dwi Susanti ◽  
Sokono Sukono
Keyword(s):  
Nonparametric Estimation ◽  
Total Loss ◽  
Credibility Theory ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Claim Amount ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Data Set ◽  
General Insurance ◽  
The Individual

When an insurance company calculates the premium it will divides the policy holders into groups. The division is considered based on risk level in each group. The problem is then to devise a way of combining the experience risk of the group with the experience of the individual risk to calculate the premium, so then Credibility Theory provides a solution to this problem.This script discuss about calculation of credibility premium use Buhlmann-Straub Model with nonparametric estimation to the aggregate claim amount data set within few years observation in some group of policy holders in  general insurance. By using credibility theory we can calculate the value of credibility factor and credibility premium or future premium. The value of premium credibility is calculated from only one group of policyholders from the previous year's data. For better value of premium credibility, data with more experience years and the policyholder group better reflect the total loss value during the observation year.The result of this calculation are credibility factor per group, average credibility premium per members in group and credibility premium total for the last year for each group. We can obtain total losses and total premium which surprisingly equal. 

scholarly journals Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Miller ◽  
S. N. Jonkman ◽  
M. Van Ledden
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
New Orleans ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central Area ◽  
Protection System ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. Since the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a flood risk analysis the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that – depending on the flood scenario – the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g., other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk to life of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Indicative effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation and discussion.

scholarly journals Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 825-864 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Miller ◽  
S. N. Jonkman ◽  
M. Van Ledden
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
New Orleans ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central Area ◽  
Protection System ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Reduction Strategies ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. After the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to hurricane Katrina in the year 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a risk-based approach the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that – depending on the flood scenario – the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large scale engineering systems (e.g. other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation.

The Use of a Risk-Based Approach in Safety Issues of Coal Mines

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gennady I. KORSHUNOV ◽  
Marat L. RUDAKOV ◽  
Eugeniy I. KABANOV
Keyword(s):  
Occupational Injuries ◽  
Coal Mines ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Gas Content ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Industrial Accidents ◽  
Safety Issues ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
The Impact

The paper contains the analysis of the data on major industrial accidents and occupational injuries at the coal mine industry enterprises of Russia in order to reveal statistically significant correlations between the indicators impacting the accident rate and the employees’ death risk level. As the risk criteria, the values of the methane-air resultant mixtures (MARM) explosions frequency and the frequency of the staff exposure at MARM explosions in the mines (observed levels of personal risks) are taken. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test and Kruskal–Wallis test are used to analyze the categorized data samplings over the period from 2005 to 2016. The authors have defined the influence of relative gas content and hazard of layers regarding spontaneous combustion on the MARM explosions frequency. The regression models that take into consideration the impact of hazardous factors on the risk indicators have been received. The results of the performed coal mines ranging in Russia have been presented according to the level of individual risk, caused by MARM explosions; the received results have been compared with the acceptable tolerable risk level. The relevance of applying the research findings has been shown at the implementation of the dynamic model of the risk-based approach for ensuring coal mines safe exploitation.

Macroprudential Policy Instruments of Central Banks

2012 ◽  
pp. 32-47
Author(s):  
S. Andryushin ◽  
V. Kuznetsova
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Policy Studies ◽  
The Future ◽  
Financial Cycles

The paper analyzes central banks macroprudencial policy and its instruments. The issues of their classification, option, design and adjustment are connected with financial stability of overall financial system and its specific institutions. The macroprudencial instruments effectiveness is evaluated from the two points: how they mitigate temporal and intersectoral systemic risk development (market, credit, and operational). The future macroprudentional policy studies directions are noted to identify the instruments, which can be used to limit the financial systemdevelopment procyclicality, mitigate the credit and financial cycles volatility.

The importance and significance of gene polymorphisms in preeclampsia

2016 ◽  
pp. 45-49
Author(s):  
P.N. Veropotvelyan ◽  
◽  
I.S. Tsehmistrenko ◽  
N.P. Veropotvelyan ◽  
N.S. Rusak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oxidative Stress ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Early Diagnosis ◽  
Gene Polymorphisms ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Extended Study ◽  
Stress Genes ◽  
Detoxification System ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship

Was to conduct a systematic review of data on the relationship between polymorphisms genes of detoxification system and development of preeclampsia (РЕ). Рresents the main genes of detoxification system (GSTPI, GSTМI, GSTТI, GРХI, ЕРНХI, SOD-2, SOD-3, CYPIAL, MTHЕR, MTR) and their functions. Of interest is the possibility of calculating the individual risk of PE based on the results about the presence of a combination of different polymorphisms in the genotype of the female. Question about early diagnosis of РЕ remains controversial and not fully understood. It is necessary to conduct further in-depth, extended study of this problem. Key words: preeclampsia, oxidative stress, genes of the detoxification system.

Hermeneutic circle in development of methodological culture of future music teacher

2017 ◽  
pp. 154-158
Author(s):  
A. S. Koval
Keyword(s):  
Future Teacher ◽  
Music Teacher ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Hermeneutic Circle ◽  
High Culture ◽  
Text Understanding ◽  
Hermeneutic Approach ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Positive Effect

This article is devoted to the studying hermeneutic circle in the development of methodological culture of future music teacher. Under the conditions of globalization processes, tendencies of convergence of world cultures improvement of culturological training of student youth requires new approaches, in particular, culturological training of students of pedagogical specialties. The task of pedagogical education is to develop a teacher as a specialist and as a person of high culture, who has a special positive effect on the personality of school student. This article analyses the works of scientists dedicated to the issues of establishment and development of the hermeneutic approach in philosophical, psychological, and logical and gnosiological contexts. It is defined the essence of the concept of “hermeneutic circle” as one of the basic principles of the hermeneutic approach. There have been provided the examples of interpretation of the principle of hermeneutic circle by various scientists. Hermeneutic approach is applied in sciences such as pedagogy, psychology, economics, sociology etc. In pedagogical science the hermeneutic approach at the level of conceptual use was elaborated by A. Zakirova. She introduced the term “pedagogical hermeneutics”. Hermeneutic circle as a principle of text understanding is based on the interrelation of the part and the whole. Understanding of the whole consists of the understanding of the individual parts, and understanding of the parts requires understanding of the whole. The concepts of the part and the whole are correlated: the text is a part concerning the whole creative activity of the author, which in its turn is a part of the particular genre or literature in general, as well as the part of spiritual life and biography of the author. The idea of hermeneutic circle means also that there is no understanding of the text without certain prerequisites: understanding is preceded by some idea of what is yet to understand. There have been determined the peculiarities of the use of the principle of hermeneutic circle in the development of methodological culture of the future teacher of musical art. In light of hermeneutical trends, the penetration of which in the realm of musical art can be traced quite clearly, the use of the hermeneutic circle principle in the development of methodological culture of the future teacher of musical art appears not only in the narrow interpretation of the particular phenomenon or group of phenomena, but much wider — as a means of learning and understanding of the worldview by a person.

CREATING THE SITUATION OF SUCCESS IN THE HUMAN SCIENCES – A PREREQUISITE FOR THE HUMANIZATION OF EDUCATION

2020 ◽  
pp. 48-57
Author(s):  
Ayta Sakun ◽  
Tatiana Kadlubovich ◽  
Darina Chernyak
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Activity ◽  
Human Sciences ◽  
Creative Potential ◽  
Modern Education ◽  
Future Success ◽  
Cognitive Motivation ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual

The problem of success became relevant at the beginning of the XXI century. Everyone strives to succeed, to be confident in themselves and in the future. Success is recognized as one of the needs of the individual. Reforming modern education is designed to make it human-centered, effective, close to the practical needs of the learner. The humanization of education is impossible without creating situations of success in learning. Such situations activate a person's cognitive motivation, reveal his creative potential, make a person strong and confident. To create situations of success, teachers use a variety of methods and tools that enhance the cognitive activity of students.

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