scholarly journals Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 825-864 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Miller ◽  
S. N. Jonkman ◽  
M. Van Ledden
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
New Orleans ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central Area ◽  
Protection System ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Reduction Strategies ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. After the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to hurricane Katrina in the year 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a risk-based approach the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that – depending on the flood scenario – the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large scale engineering systems (e.g. other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation.

scholarly journals Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Miller ◽  
S. N. Jonkman ◽  
M. Van Ledden
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
New Orleans ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central Area ◽  
Protection System ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. Since the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a flood risk analysis the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that – depending on the flood scenario – the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g., other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk to life of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Indicative effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation and discussion.

Creating Order from Chaos

2011 ◽  
pp. 781-788
Author(s):  
Nilmini Wickramasinghe ◽  
Rajeev K. Bali
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
Crisis Management ◽  
Knowledge Economy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
The World ◽  
Prescriptive Model ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Many

Recently, the world has witnessed several large scale natural disasters: the Tsunami that devastated many of the countries around the rim of the Indian Ocean in December 2004, extensive flooding in many parts of Europe in August 2005, hurricane Katrina in September 2005, the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in many regions of Asia and Canada in 2003, and the earthquake disaster in Pakistan towards the end of 2005 . These emergency and disaster situations (E&DS) serve to underscore the utter chaos that ensues in the aftermath of such events, the many casualties and loss of life, not to mention the devastation and destruction that is left behind. One recurring theme that is apparent in all these situations is that irrespective of the warnings of the imminent threats, countries have not been prepared and ready to exhibit effective and efficient crisis management. This paper examines the application of the tools, techniques, and processes of the knowledge economy to develop a prescriptive model that will support superior decision making in E&DS and thereby enable effective and efficient crisis management.

Reliability Assessment and Management Lessons From Hurricane Katrina

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Bea
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
New Orleans ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Protection System ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management ◽  
Flood Protection System

Hurricane Katrina disclosed a wide variety of flaws and defects that were embedded in the flood protection system for the greater New Orleans area (NOFPS). One of the primary reasons for this catastrophe was failure in risk assessment and management (RAM). Based on results from several extensive forensic studies, this paper details how RAM failed. Critical limitations in current RAM methodologies and results intended to help rehabilitate and further develop the NOFPS are highlighted. Recommendations are advanced to address these limitations.

AFTER THE STORM: In the Wake of Katrina

2005 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-158
Author(s):  
Michael C. Dawson ◽  
Lawrence D. Bobo
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
New Orleans ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
The Political ◽  
Large Share ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Many ◽  
The City

By the time you read this issue of the Du Bois Review, it will be nearly a year after the disaster caused by Hurricane Katrina swept the Gulf Coast and roiled the nation. While this issue does not concentrate on the disaster, (the next issue of the DBR will be devoted solely to research on the social, economic, and political ramifications of the Katrina disaster), the editors would be amiss if we did not comment on an event that once again exposed the deadly fault lines of the American racial order. The loss of the lives of nearly 1500 citizens, the many more tens of thousands whose lives were wrecked, and the destruction of a major American city as we know it, all had clear racial overtones as the story unfolded. Indeed, the racial story of the disaster does not end with the tragic loss of life, the disruption of hundred of thousands of lives, nor the physical, social, economic, and political collapse of an American urban jewel. The political map of the city of New Orleans, the state of Louisiana (and probably Texas), and the region is being rewritten as the large Black and overwhelmingly Democratic population of New Orleans was dispersed out of Louisiana, with states such as Texas becoming the perhaps permanent recipients of a large share of the evacuees.

scholarly journals METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO EVALUATION AND PREDICTION OF INDIVIDUAL RISK TO HEALTH UNDER THE EXPOSURE TO A COMPLEX OF DIFFERENT FACTORS FOR TASKS OF PERSONALIZED PROPHYLAXIS

2018 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-43
Author(s):  
Marina A. Zemlyanova ◽  
N. V. Zaytseva ◽  
D. A. Kiryanov ◽  
O. Yu. Ustinova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Scientific Publications ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Model Library ◽  
Genetic Status ◽  
Somatic Status ◽  
The Individual

Methodical approaches to the assessment and prediction of the individual risk for the development of diseases associated with the effect of a complex of heterogeneous factors, taking into account the features of the genetic and somatic status of the individual for the tasks of personalized prevention, are suggested. The conceptual basis of the methodology is the presentation of the individual risk for diseases as a quantity that varies with time depending on the level and duration of the exposure of the acting factors (evolution), with respect to the contribution of natural causes. There is presented a model describing the evolution of individual risk, which takes into account a complex system of dependencies of the indices of the body’s somatic state and genetic status on the variable exposure of factors. To assess the value of the individual risk, there are proposed a scale and a system of criteria for the assessment of the likelihood of the development of the disease with taking account of its severity. The established value of the individual risk in relation to a specific disease determines the list, scope and sequence of measures for the personalized prevention, and is also a measure of their effectiveness. A large-scale epidemiological study of the population (about 10 thousand people) from 12 regions of the Russian Federation was executed. There was obtained a system of dependencies which reflects the cause-effect relationships between indices characterizing the factors of habitat and lifestyle, the body’s somatic and genetic status (more than 500 indices), the probability of diseases associated with risk factors (about 20 nosological forms). There was created a special replenished information resource «Model Library» has been created, including parameters of more than 4 thousand adequate and reliable dependencies of cause-effect relationships, revealed by relying upon the results of own epidemiological studies and analysis of domestic and foreign scientific publications. An algorithm for the estimation and prediction the individual risk has been developed for the formation of personalized prevention programs aimed at its reducing. The algorithm is implemented in the form of an information and analytical system that can be used as a tool for making managerial decisions in the field of personalized prevention of diseases associated with risk factors at the group and population levels.

Analyzing Mega-Disaster Hurricane Katrina

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arjen Boin ◽  
Christer Brown ◽  
James A. Richardson
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
New Orleans ◽  
Crisis Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Local Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
Scale Response ◽  
State And Local

The response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 has been widely described as a disaster in itself. Politicians, media, academics, survivors, and the public at large have slammed the federal, state, and local response to this mega disaster. According to the critics, the response was late, ineffective, politically charged, and even influenced by racist motives. But is this criticism true? Was the response really that poor? This article offers a framework for the analysis and assessment of a large-scale response to a mega disaster, which is then applied to the Katrina response (with an emphasis on New Orleans). The article identifies some failings (where the response could and should have been better) but also points to successes that somehow got lost in the politicized aftermath of this disaster. The article demonstrates the importance of a proper framework based on insights from crisis management studies.

Cleaning up New Orleans: The impact of a missing population on disaster debris removal

2009 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Cook, BA
Keyword(s):  
Public Participation ◽  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
New Orleans ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Removal Process ◽  
Debris Removal ◽  
Rebuilding Effort ◽  
Disaster Debris ◽  
The Impact

Public participation in a disaster debris removal process is an important component to any large-scale rebuilding effort. How, then, does such an effort progress when nearly two-thirds of the affected community’s population does not come back to participate? The City of New Orleans faced just such a situation after Hurricane Katrina and the catastrophic flooding that followed. The debris removal task is the largest in US history, and very few residents returned to participate in the cleanup. This article provides a further understanding of the impact that New Orleans’ missing population had on the city’s cleanup process. This article asserts that without this city’s residents (or first filters), the enormous debris removal effort in New Orleans was further slowed and complicated. The first two sections provide background and context, identifying the size and scope of the disaster, the low residential return rate, and the role of public participation in previous large-scale debris removal efforts. The next three sections focus on the disaster debris itself, identifying specific ways in which the missing population further complicated New Orleans’ cleanup efforts with regard to (a) the duration of the debris removal process, (b) the volume of debris, and (c) the contamination of debris.The final section considers various measures that emergency planners and managers can take to facilitate “participatory repopulation,” thus mitigating the complications of a missing population.

scholarly journals Financial Market and Inflation

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 90
Author(s):  
Yuqing Qi
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Inflation Risk ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual

Based on two dimensions of system risk, this paper studies the changes in the future inflation risk level, and uses the out-of-sample quantile R2  to further evaluate the predictive accuracy of different systemic risk indicators on inflation risk. Firstly, we compute two systemic risk indicators, MES and volatility, with data of Chinese financial institutions. And then we explore the amplification effect of these indicators on future inflation risk, under the framework of quantile regression. We find that systematic risk indicators have a strong predictive ability for the inflation level at various quantiles. MES indicator that reflects individual risk can better predict future deflation risk, while volatility index has a stronger ability to predict inflation risk. We also find that systemic risk indicators of different dimensions have different effects on inflation risk and deflation risk. In general, the MES index, which captures the individual risk of the organization, have a greater impact on the future inflation risk. While indicator that measures volatility in financial markets has more influence on the extreme lower tail of inflation rates. Finally, we predict the distribution of inflation in China from March 2020 to June 2021, and visually show the distribution trend of future inflation with forecast fan charts.

The Changing Face of Trauma: New Orleans before and after Hurricane Katrina

2009 ◽  
Vol 75 (4) ◽  
pp. 284-286
Author(s):  
Georgia M. Wahl ◽  
Alan B. Marr ◽  
Sidney B. Brevard ◽  
Sharon L. Weintraub ◽  
John P. Hunt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
New Orleans ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Injury Severity ◽  
Trauma System ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Study Objective ◽  
Physiological Variables ◽  
Significant Difference

Charity Hospital (CH) was devastated by Hurricane Katrina and remains closed. Design and staffing of a new, temporary dedicated trauma hospital relied on data from prior experience at CH, updated census information, and a changed trauma demographic. The study objective was to analyze the new trauma program and evaluate changes in demographics, injury patterns, and outcomes between pre- (PK) and post-Katrina (POK) trauma populations. A retrospective review of trauma patients’ demographics, anatomical variables, and physiological variables 6 months PK and POK was performed under an approved Institutional Review Board protocol. Trauma activation triage criteria between study periods were also analyzed. Continuous data comparisons between the two time periods were made with Student's t test. Dichotomous data were analyzed using χ2 test. The demographic of trauma patients is different in the POK interval, reflecting changes in the New Orleans population. Modification of triage criteria by the exclusion of mechanism as an activation criterion resulted in an increase of patients with higher acuity and Injury Severity Score, lower initial Glasgow Coma Score, and a higher proportion of penetrating mechanism. Outcome measures reflect longer length of stay (4.4 vs 6.8 days, P < 0.0001) without a significant difference in mortality (6.0 vs 7.5, P = 0.227). Hospital data demonstrates that the POK trauma system was stressed by the increased acuity, penetrating injury, and number of procedures per patient (1.7 vs 3.4). Resources should be directed toward patients requiring multidisciplinary care by increasing intensive care unit beds and operating room capacity. Future resource planning in the recovery phases of large-scale natural disasters should take into account these observations.

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