scholarly journals The Impact of Global Warming and Climate Change on the Development of Agriculture in the Northern Latitudes of the Eurasian Continent

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryumkina Inga ◽  
Ryumkin Sergey ◽  
Malykhina Anastasiia ◽  
Dmitry Ursu ◽  
Andrey Khanturgaev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Regime ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Far East ◽  
The North ◽  
Eurasian Continent ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Central Regions

In the northern regions of the Eurasian continent, an increase in the sum of active temperatures up to 1500–2000 °C degrees is observed, which creates more favorable conditions for growing crops. The study reveals the prerequisites for the development of crop production in the northern latitudes and analyzes the yield of crops according to the Doctrine of Food Security. Also considered the yields of the main crops in the northern countries of Europe. In the south of the European part of the Eurasian continent, a decrease in crop yields is expected due to climate change and severe aridity. At the same time, this process will have a more negligible effect in the central regions. Improving the thermal regime in the North of the Far East will also increase the yield of fruit and berry, and vegetable crops. In the northern part of the circumpolar belt, an improvement in the thermal regime with a relatively insignificant change in climate humidity will create conditions for increasing crops’ productivity and growing a more comprehensive range of crops, especially in river valleys.

scholarly journals Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 172
Author(s):  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
Mingyang Sun ◽  
Weixing Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Output Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

Quantitatively assessing the spatial divergence of the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change is of great significance for reducing the climate change risk to food production. We use socio-economic and climatic data from 1981 to 2015 to examine how climate variability led to variation in yield, as simulated by an economy–climate model (C-D-C). The sensitivity of crop yield to the impact of climate change refers to the change in yield caused by changing climatic factors under the condition of constant non-climatic factors. An ‘output elasticity of comprehensive climate factor (CCF)’ approach determines the sensitivity, using the yields per hectare for grain, rice, wheat and maize in China’s main grain-producing areas as a case study. The results show that the CCF has a negative trend at a rate of −0.84/(10a) in the North region, while a positive trend of 0.79/(10a) is observed for the South region. Climate change promotes the ensemble increase in yields, and the contribution of agricultural labor force and total mechanical power to yields are greater, indicating that the yield in major grain-producing areas mainly depends on labor resources and the level of mechanization. However, the sensitivities to climate change of different crop yields to climate change present obvious regional differences: the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for maize in the North region was stronger than that in the South region. Therefore, the increase in the yield per hectare for maize in the North region due to the positive impacts of climate change was greater than that in the South region. In contrast, the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for rice in the South region was stronger than that in the North region. Furthermore, the sensitivity to climate change of maize per hectare yield was stronger than that of rice and wheat in the North region, and that of rice was the highest of the three crop yields in the South region. Finally, the economy–climate sensitivity zones of different crops were determined by the output elasticity of the CCF to help adapt to climate change and prevent food production risks.

SPATIAL LAYOUT OF THE SOVIET UNION TIMBER PROCESSING COMPLEX: THE IDEA BEHIND THE FIRST FIVE-YEAR PLAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 131-154
Author(s):  
Ivan V. ZYKIN
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Far East ◽  
Spatial Layout ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Wood Industry ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Central Regions

During the years of Soviet power, principal changes took place in the country’s wood industry, including in spatial layout development. Having the large-scale crisis in the industry in the late 1980s — 2000s and the positive changes in its functioning in recent years and the development of an industry strategy, it becomes relevant to analyze the experience of planning the spatial layout of the wood industry during the period of Stalin’s modernization, particularly during the first five-year plan. The aim of the article is to analyze the reason behind spatial layout of the Soviet wood industry during the implementation of the first five-year plan. The study is based on the modernization concept. In our research we conducted mapping of the wood industry by region as well as of planned construction of the industry facilities. It was revealed that the discussion and development of an industrialization project by the Soviet Union party-state and planning agencies in the second half of the 1920s led to increased attention to the wood industry. The sector, which enterprises were concentrated mainly in the north-west, west and central regions of the country, was set the task of increasing the volume of harvesting, export of wood and production to meet the domestic needs and the export needs of wood resources and materials. Due to weak level of development of the wood industry, the scale of these tasks required restructuring of the branch, its inclusion to the centralized economic system, the direction of large capital investments to the development of new forest areas and the construction of enterprises. It was concluded that according to the first five-year plan, the priority principles for the spatial development of the wood industry were the approach of production to forests and seaports, intrasectoral and intersectoral combining. The framework of the industry was meant to strengthen and expand by including forests to the economic turnover and building new enterprises in the European North and the Urals, where the main capital investments were sent, as well as in the Vyatka region, Transcaucasia, Siberia and the Far East.

Future global crop production increases by adapting crop phenology to local climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Minoli ◽  
Jonas Jägermeyr ◽  
Senthold Asseng ◽  
Christoph Müller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Crop Phenology

<p>Broad evidence is pointing at possible adverse impacts of climate change on crop yields. Due to scarce information about farming management practices, most global-scale studies, however, do not consider adaptation strategies.</p><p>Here we integrate models of farmers' decision making with crop biophysical modeling at the global scale to investigate how accounting for adaptation of crop phenology affects projections of future crop productivity under climate change. Farmers in each simulation unit are assumed to adapt crop growing periods by continuously selecting sowing dates and cultivars that match climatic conditions best. We compare counterfactual management scenarios, assuming crop calendars and cultivars to be either the same as in the reference climate – as often assumed in previous climate impact assessments – or adapted to future climate.</p><p>Based on crop model simulations, we find that the implementation of adapted growing periods can substantially increase (+15%) total crop production in 2080-2099 (RCP6.0). In general, summer crops are responsive to both sowing and harvest date adjustments, which result in overall longer growing periods and improved yields, compared to production systems without adaptation of growing periods. Winter wheat presents challenges in adapting to a warming climate and requires region-specific adjustments to pre and post winter conditions. We present a systematic evaluation of how local and climate-scenario specific adaptation strategies can enhance global crop productivity on current cropland. Our findings highlight the importance of further research on the readiness of required crop varieties.</p>

Accounting for adaptation in assessing impact of climatic variations on crop yields: an empirical study of Arizona

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 224-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haoying Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Climatic Variation ◽  
Fertilizer Use ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
Input Use ◽  
Effects Of Temperature

The goal of this paper is to analyze the impacts of climatic variation around current normals on crop yields and explore corresponding adaptation effects in Arizona, using a unique panel data. The empirical results suggest that both fertilizer use and irrigation are important adaptations to climate change in crop production. Fertilizer use has a positive impact on crop yields as expected. When accounting for irrigation and its interaction with temperature, a moderate temperature increase tends to be beneficial to both cotton and hay yields. The empirical model in this paper features with two methodological innovations, identifying the effects of temperature change conditional on adaptations and incorporating potential spatial spillover effects among input use.

scholarly journals Trends of weather-related impacts on Austrian crop production under changing climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabina Thaler ◽  
Josef Eitzinger ◽  
Gerhard Kubu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Crop Growth ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Crop Water

<p>Weather-related risks can affect crop growth and yield potentials directly (e.g. heat, frost, drought) and indirectly (e.g. through biotic factors such as pests). Due to climate change, severe shifts of cropping risks may occur, where farmers need to adapt effectively and in time to increase the resilience of existing cropping systems. For example, since the early 21st century, Europe has experienced a series of exceptionally dry and warmer than usual weather conditions (2003, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2018) which led to severe droughts with devastating impacts in agriculture on crop yields and pasture productivity.</p><p>Austria has experienced above-average warming in the period since 1880. While the global average surface temperature has increased by almost 1°C, the warming in Austria during this period was nearly 2°C. Higher temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and more severe and frequent extreme weather events will significantly affect weather-sensitive sectors, especially agriculture. Therefore, the development of sound adaptation and mitigation strategies towards a "climate-intelligent agriculture" is crucial to improve the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change and increased climate variability. Within the project AGROFORECAST a set of weather-related risk indicators and tailored recommendations for optimizing crop management options are developed and tested for various forecast or prediction lead times (short term management: 10 days - 6 months; long term strategic planning: climate scenarios) to better inform farmers of upcoming weather and climate challenges.</p><p>Here we present trends of various types of long-term weather-related impacts on Austrian crop production under past (1980-2020) and future periods (2035-2065). For that purpose, agro-climatic risk indicators and crop production indicators are determined in selected case study regions with the help of models. We use for the past period Austrian gridded weather data set (INCA) as well as different regionalized climate scenarios of the Austrian Climate Change Projections ÖKS15. The calculation of the agro-climatic indicators is carried out by the existing AGRICLIM model and the GIS-based ARIS software, which was developed for estimating the impact of adverse weather conditions on crops. The crop growth model AQUACROP is used for analysing soil-crop water balance parameters, crop yields and future crop water demand.</p><p>Depending on the climatic region, a more or less clear shift in the various agro-climatic indices can be expected towards 2050, e.g. the number of "heat-stress-days" for winter wheat increases significantly in eastern Austria. Furthermore, a decreasing trend in maize yield is simulated, whereas a mean increase in yield of spring barley and winter wheat can be expected under selected scenarios. Other agro-climatic risk indicators analysed include pest algorithms, risks from frost occurrence, overwintering conditions, climatic crop growing conditions, field workability and others, which can add additional impacts on crop yield variability, not considered by crop models.</p>

scholarly journals Climate change adaptation cost and residual damage to global crop production

2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-218
Author(s):  
T Iizumi ◽  
Z Shen ◽  
J Furuya ◽  
T Koizumi ◽  
G Furuhashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Cost Models ◽  
Global Cost ◽  
Adaptation Cost ◽  
Residual Damage ◽  
Adaptation Costs

Adaptation will be essential in many sectors, including agriculture, as a certain level of warming is anticipated even after substantial climate mitigation. However, global adaptation costs and adaptation limits in agriculture are understudied. Here, we estimate the global adaptation cost and residual damage (climate change impacts after adaptation) for maize, rice, wheat and soybean using a global gridded crop model and empirical production cost models. Producers require additional expenditures under climate change to produce the same crop yields that would be achieved without climate change, and this difference is defined as the adaptation cost. On a decadal mean basis, the undiscounted global cost of climate change (adaptation cost plus residual damage) for the crops are projected to increase with warming from 63 US$ billion (B) at 1.5°C to $80 B at 2°C and to $128 B at 3°C per year. The adaptation cost gradually increases in absolute terms, but the share decreases from 84% of the cost of climate change ($53 B) at 1.5°C to 76% ($61 B) at 2°C and to 61% ($8 B) at 3°C. The residual damage increases from 16% ($10 B) at 1.5°C to 24% ($19 B) at 2°C and to 39% ($50 B) at 3°C. Once maintaining yields becomes difficult due to the biological limits of crops or decreased profitability, producers can no longer bear adaptation costs, and residual damages increase. Our estimates offer a basis to identify the gap between global adaptation needs and the funds available for adaptation.

scholarly journals The global burden of plant disease tracks crop yields under climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Chaloner ◽  
Sarah J. Gurr ◽  
Daniel P. Bebber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Plant Pathogens ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Crop Protection ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Productivity Gains

AbstractGlobal food security is strongly determined by crop production. Climate change will not only affect crop yields directly, but also indirectly via the distributions and impacts of plant pathogens that can cause devastating production losses. However, the likely changes in pathogen pressure in relation to global crop production are poorly understood. Here we show that disease risk for 79 fungal and oomycete crop pathogens will closely track projected yield changes in 12 major crops over the 21st Century. For most crops, yields are likely to increase at high latitudes but disease risk will also grow. In addition, the USA, Europe and China will experience major changes in pathogen assemblages. In contrast, while the tropics will see little or no productivity gains, the disease burden is also likely to decline. The benefits of yield gains will therefore be tempered by the increased burden of crop protection.

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN WEST AFRICA: A BIO-ECONOMIC MODELING APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 1950015
Author(s):  
BORIS O. K. LOKONON ◽  
AKLESSO Y. G. EGBENDEWE ◽  
NAGA COULIBALY ◽  
CALVIN ATEWAMBA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.

Implications of climate change on long-lead forecasting and global agriculture

2007 ◽  
Vol 58 (10) ◽  
pp. 939 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond P. Motha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The North

Variations in crop yields and agricultural productivity are strongly influenced by fluctuations in seasonal weather conditions during the growing season. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, and other similar ocean/atmosphere teleconnections in the North Pacific and North Atlantic, contribute to extreme weather events and climatic variability. As seasonal forecasting skills improve with greater knowledge of these teleconnections and improved Global Circulation Models (GCMs), farmers and agricultural planners will be able to make better use of long-lead forecasts for strategic decisions in agriculture. Issues related to climate variability and climate change pose significant risks to agriculture as the frequency of natural disasters tends to increase worldwide.

scholarly journals Scenario development for estimating potential climate change impacts on crop production in the North China Plain

2013 ◽  
Vol 33 (15) ◽  
pp. 3124-3140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Chen ◽  
Arthur M. Greene ◽  
Andrew W. Robertson ◽  
Walter E. Baethgen ◽  
Derek Eamus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
North China Plain ◽  
North China ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
The North ◽  
The North China Plain ◽  
Potential Climate Change
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