Accounting for adaptation in assessing impact of climatic variations on crop yields: an empirical study of Arizona

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 224-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haoying Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Climatic Variation ◽  
Fertilizer Use ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
Input Use ◽  
Effects Of Temperature

The goal of this paper is to analyze the impacts of climatic variation around current normals on crop yields and explore corresponding adaptation effects in Arizona, using a unique panel data. The empirical results suggest that both fertilizer use and irrigation are important adaptations to climate change in crop production. Fertilizer use has a positive impact on crop yields as expected. When accounting for irrigation and its interaction with temperature, a moderate temperature increase tends to be beneficial to both cotton and hay yields. The empirical model in this paper features with two methodological innovations, identifying the effects of temperature change conditional on adaptations and incorporating potential spatial spillover effects among input use.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Changes on Crop Yield: Irrigated vs. Non-Irrigated Zones in Mississippi

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2249
Author(s):  
Sadia Alam Shammi ◽  
Qingmin Meng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and its impact on agriculture are challenging issues regarding food production and food security. Many researchers have been trying to show the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on agriculture using different methods. In this study, we used linear regression models to assess the impact of climate on crop yield spatially and temporally by managing irrigated and non-irrigated crop fields. The climate data used in this study are Tmax (maximum temperature), Tmean (mean temperature), Tmin (minimum temperature), precipitation, and soybean annual yields, at county scale for Mississippi, USA, from 1980 to 2019. We fit a series of linear models that were evaluated based on statistical measurements of adjusted R-square, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). According to the statistical model evaluation, the 1980–1992 model Y[Tmax,Tmin,Precipitation]92i (BIC = 120.2) for irrigated zones and the 1993–2002 model Y[Tmax,Tmean,Precipitation]02ni (BIC = 1128.9) for non-irrigated zones showed the best fit for the 10-year period of climatic impacts on crop yields. These models showed about 2 to 7% significant negative impact of Tmax increase on the crop yield for irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Besides, the models for different agricultural districts also explained the changes of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation in the irrigated (adjusted R-square: 13–28%) and non-irrigated zones (adjusted R-square: 8–73%). About 2–10% negative impact of Tmax was estimated across different agricultural districts, whereas about −2 to +17% impacts of precipitation were observed for different districts. The modeling of 40-year periods of the whole state of Mississippi estimated a negative impact of Tmax (about 2.7 to 8.34%) but a positive impact of Tmean (+8.9%) on crop yield during the crop growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Overall, we assessed that crop yields were negatively affected (about 2–8%) by the increase of Tmax during the growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated zones. Both positive and negative impacts on crop yields were observed for the increases of Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation, respectively, for irrigated and non-irrigated zones. This study showed the pattern and extent of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation and their impacts on soybean yield at local and regional scales. The methods and the models proposed in this study could be helpful to quantify the climate change impacts on crop yields by considering irrigation conditions for different regions and periods.

Future global crop production increases by adapting crop phenology to local climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Minoli ◽  
Jonas Jägermeyr ◽  
Senthold Asseng ◽  
Christoph Müller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Crop Phenology

<p>Broad evidence is pointing at possible adverse impacts of climate change on crop yields. Due to scarce information about farming management practices, most global-scale studies, however, do not consider adaptation strategies.</p><p>Here we integrate models of farmers' decision making with crop biophysical modeling at the global scale to investigate how accounting for adaptation of crop phenology affects projections of future crop productivity under climate change. Farmers in each simulation unit are assumed to adapt crop growing periods by continuously selecting sowing dates and cultivars that match climatic conditions best. We compare counterfactual management scenarios, assuming crop calendars and cultivars to be either the same as in the reference climate – as often assumed in previous climate impact assessments – or adapted to future climate.</p><p>Based on crop model simulations, we find that the implementation of adapted growing periods can substantially increase (+15%) total crop production in 2080-2099 (RCP6.0). In general, summer crops are responsive to both sowing and harvest date adjustments, which result in overall longer growing periods and improved yields, compared to production systems without adaptation of growing periods. Winter wheat presents challenges in adapting to a warming climate and requires region-specific adjustments to pre and post winter conditions. We present a systematic evaluation of how local and climate-scenario specific adaptation strategies can enhance global crop productivity on current cropland. Our findings highlight the importance of further research on the readiness of required crop varieties.</p>

scholarly journals What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 9241
Author(s):  
Chengfang Huang ◽  
Ning Li ◽  
Zhengtao Zhang ◽  
Yuan Liu ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Systematic Review Methodology ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Yield Decrease

Many studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on crop yield in China, while results have varied due to uncertain factors. This study has drawn a highly consistent consensus from the scientific evidence based on numerous existing studies. By a highly rational systematic review methodology, we obtained 737 result samples with the theme of climate change affecting China’s crop yields. Then, we used likelihood scale and trend analysis methods to quantify the consensus level and uncertainty interval of these samples. The results showed that: (i) The crop yield decrease in the second half of the 21st century will be greater than 5% of that in the first half. (ii) The crop most affected by climate change will be maize, with the decreased value exceeding −25% at the end of this century, followed by rice and wheat exceeding −10% and −5%. (iii) The positive impact of CO2 on crop yield will change by nearly 10%. Our conclusions clarify the consensus of the impact of future climate change on China’s crop yield, and this study helps exclude the differences and examine the policies and actions that China has taken and should take in response to climate change.

scholarly journals ASSESSING AND ADDRESSING CLIMATE-INDUCED RISK IN SUB-SAHARAN RAINFED AGRICULTURE: LESSONS LEARNED

2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 395-410 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. COE ◽  
R. D. STERN
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
List Type ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Pastoral Systems

SUMMARYA defining characteristic of many rainfed tropical agricultural systems is their vulnerability to weather variability. There is now increased attention paid to climate-agriculture links as the world is focused on climate change. This has shown the need for increased understanding of current and future climate and the links to agricultural investment decisions, particularly farmers’ decisions, and that integrated strategies for coping with climate change need to start with managing current climate risk. Research, largely from an Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA) project to demonstrate the value of such increased understanding, is presented in this issue of the journal. Key lessons from this research are as follows: 1.Statistical methods of analysis of historical climate data that are relevant to agriculture need not be complex. The most critical point is to describe the climate in terms of events of direct relevance to farming (such as the date of the start of a rainy season) rather than simple standard measures (such as annual total rainfall).2.Analysis requires access to relevant data, tools and expertise. Daily climate data, both current and historical, are primarily the responsibility of national meteorological services (NMS). Accessing such data, particularly daily data, is not always easy. Including staff from the NMS as research partners, not just data providers, can reduce this problem.3.Farmers’ perceptions of climate variation, risk and change are complex. They are keenly aware of variability, but there is evidence that they over-estimate risks of negative impacts and thereby fail to make use of good conditions when they occur. There is also evidence that multiple causes of changes are confounded, so farmers who observe decreasing crop production may not be distinguishing between rainfall change and declining soil fertility or other conditions. Hence any project working with farmers’ coping and adaptation to climate must also have access to analyses of observed climate data from nearby recording stations.4.Mechanisms for reducing and coping with risks are exemplified in pastoral systems that exist in the most variable environments. New approaches to risk transfer, such as index-based insurance, show potential for positive impact.5.Skilful seasonal forecasts, which give a better indication of the coming season than a simple average, would help farmers take decisions for the coming cropping season. Increasing meteorological knowledge shows that such forecasting is possible for parts of Africa. There are institutional barriers to farmers accessing and using the forecast information. Furthermore, the skill of the forecasts is currently limited so that there are maybe still only a few rational choices for a farmer to make on the basis of a forecast.With the justified current interest in climate and agriculture, all stakeholders including researchers, data providers, policy developers and extension workers will need to work together to ensure that interventions are based on a correct interpretation of a valid analysis of relevant data.

scholarly journals Trends of weather-related impacts on Austrian crop production under changing climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabina Thaler ◽  
Josef Eitzinger ◽  
Gerhard Kubu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Crop Growth ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Crop Water

<p>Weather-related risks can affect crop growth and yield potentials directly (e.g. heat, frost, drought) and indirectly (e.g. through biotic factors such as pests). Due to climate change, severe shifts of cropping risks may occur, where farmers need to adapt effectively and in time to increase the resilience of existing cropping systems. For example, since the early 21st century, Europe has experienced a series of exceptionally dry and warmer than usual weather conditions (2003, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2018) which led to severe droughts with devastating impacts in agriculture on crop yields and pasture productivity.</p><p>Austria has experienced above-average warming in the period since 1880. While the global average surface temperature has increased by almost 1°C, the warming in Austria during this period was nearly 2°C. Higher temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and more severe and frequent extreme weather events will significantly affect weather-sensitive sectors, especially agriculture. Therefore, the development of sound adaptation and mitigation strategies towards a "climate-intelligent agriculture" is crucial to improve the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change and increased climate variability. Within the project AGROFORECAST a set of weather-related risk indicators and tailored recommendations for optimizing crop management options are developed and tested for various forecast or prediction lead times (short term management: 10 days - 6 months; long term strategic planning: climate scenarios) to better inform farmers of upcoming weather and climate challenges.</p><p>Here we present trends of various types of long-term weather-related impacts on Austrian crop production under past (1980-2020) and future periods (2035-2065). For that purpose, agro-climatic risk indicators and crop production indicators are determined in selected case study regions with the help of models. We use for the past period Austrian gridded weather data set (INCA) as well as different regionalized climate scenarios of the Austrian Climate Change Projections ÖKS15. The calculation of the agro-climatic indicators is carried out by the existing AGRICLIM model and the GIS-based ARIS software, which was developed for estimating the impact of adverse weather conditions on crops. The crop growth model AQUACROP is used for analysing soil-crop water balance parameters, crop yields and future crop water demand.</p><p>Depending on the climatic region, a more or less clear shift in the various agro-climatic indices can be expected towards 2050, e.g. the number of "heat-stress-days" for winter wheat increases significantly in eastern Austria. Furthermore, a decreasing trend in maize yield is simulated, whereas a mean increase in yield of spring barley and winter wheat can be expected under selected scenarios. Other agro-climatic risk indicators analysed include pest algorithms, risks from frost occurrence, overwintering conditions, climatic crop growing conditions, field workability and others, which can add additional impacts on crop yield variability, not considered by crop models.</p>

scholarly journals Climate change adaptation cost and residual damage to global crop production

2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-218
Author(s):  
T Iizumi ◽  
Z Shen ◽  
J Furuya ◽  
T Koizumi ◽  
G Furuhashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Cost Models ◽  
Global Cost ◽  
Adaptation Cost ◽  
Residual Damage ◽  
Adaptation Costs

Adaptation will be essential in many sectors, including agriculture, as a certain level of warming is anticipated even after substantial climate mitigation. However, global adaptation costs and adaptation limits in agriculture are understudied. Here, we estimate the global adaptation cost and residual damage (climate change impacts after adaptation) for maize, rice, wheat and soybean using a global gridded crop model and empirical production cost models. Producers require additional expenditures under climate change to produce the same crop yields that would be achieved without climate change, and this difference is defined as the adaptation cost. On a decadal mean basis, the undiscounted global cost of climate change (adaptation cost plus residual damage) for the crops are projected to increase with warming from 63 US$ billion (B) at 1.5°C to $80 B at 2°C and to $128 B at 3°C per year. The adaptation cost gradually increases in absolute terms, but the share decreases from 84% of the cost of climate change ($53 B) at 1.5°C to 76% ($61 B) at 2°C and to 61% ($8 B) at 3°C. The residual damage increases from 16% ($10 B) at 1.5°C to 24% ($19 B) at 2°C and to 39% ($50 B) at 3°C. Once maintaining yields becomes difficult due to the biological limits of crops or decreased profitability, producers can no longer bear adaptation costs, and residual damages increase. Our estimates offer a basis to identify the gap between global adaptation needs and the funds available for adaptation.

scholarly journals Decomposition of Technological Processes for Evaluating the Performance of Production Line for Pre Sowing Treatment of Seeds

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 22-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. I. Kubeyev ◽  
B. S. Antropov
Keyword(s):  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Validity And Reliability ◽  
Early Maturity ◽  
Technological Processes ◽  
Study Results

An important step in improving the efficiency of crop production is the development of scientifically valid technologies and technical means of pre­sowing preparation and treatment of seeds. Among the various methods that have a positive impact on crop growth, early maturity and resistance to adverse conditions, one of the most promising is seed pelleting. (Research purpose) The reasonability of the use of pelleted seeds (dragees) was shown the shell composition of which includes the substances necessary for active growth and increase resistance to adverse effects, and, in addition, it provides a more accurate seeding. We substantiate the need for improvements to existing technologies and agricultural equipment (for example, seed pelleting machine). due to the significant lack of high­tech means of mechanization of seed pre­sowing preparation at domestic agricultural enterprises. (Materials and methods) Experimental studies have been carried out with the use of computer mathematical modeling. Results of experiments were processed by methods of mathematical statistics, statistical analysis and data processing package, research application package, filtering, analysis and modeling of technological processes. Physical and mechanical properties and quality indicators of seeds and fillers have been determined in accordance with the applicable state standards. (Results and discussion) Use has been made of a program that includes obtaining information about the processes to solve the problems of experimental studies carried out by machines for pre­-sowing treatment of seeds in accordance with the developed models of their functioning; the choice of the most effective means of measuring, recording and processing information about the operation of machines and equipment in normal operating conditions; as well as checking the effectiveness of the developed methods and tools to ensure the quality of the process in case of accidental disturbances. (Conclusions) The authors have studied main parameters and operating modes of a seed pelleting installation. An average values of the process parameters of the pre­sowing treatment of seeds have been calculated under the conditions of normal functioning of machinery and equipment taking into account the validity and reliability of the obtained characteristics. The authors have developed the technological fundamentals of the artificial coating of seed surface. The study results can be used as practical recommendations for the organization of pre­sowing treatment of seeds in order to increase seed germination and crop yields.

scholarly journals The global burden of plant disease tracks crop yields under climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Chaloner ◽  
Sarah J. Gurr ◽  
Daniel P. Bebber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Plant Pathogens ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Crop Protection ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Productivity Gains

AbstractGlobal food security is strongly determined by crop production. Climate change will not only affect crop yields directly, but also indirectly via the distributions and impacts of plant pathogens that can cause devastating production losses. However, the likely changes in pathogen pressure in relation to global crop production are poorly understood. Here we show that disease risk for 79 fungal and oomycete crop pathogens will closely track projected yield changes in 12 major crops over the 21st Century. For most crops, yields are likely to increase at high latitudes but disease risk will also grow. In addition, the USA, Europe and China will experience major changes in pathogen assemblages. In contrast, while the tropics will see little or no productivity gains, the disease burden is also likely to decline. The benefits of yield gains will therefore be tempered by the increased burden of crop protection.

Changing Climatic Conditions and Agricultural Livelihoods: An Impact Study in Jagatsinghpur District, Odisha

Social Change ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 004908572092436
Author(s):  
Prasanta Moharaj ◽  
Satyapriya Rout
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Field Survey ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Human Social Life

This article attempts to examine the negative impact of climate change on agricultural livelihood and human social life. Natural climatic variations have always been a challenge for human sustenance as they are predicated on a host of factors that include natural, human-made and unbalanced environmental conditions. India too, with its geographic zones such as mountains, small islands, wetlands, coastal areas, deserts, semi-arid lands and plains, is exposed to challenges of climatic change. The impact of climate is particularly severe on the livelihoods of the rural poor. For instance, people living near coastal regions are constantly prone to severe floods. This study specifically focusses on coastal Odisha and the impact of floods which have been triggered by climate change. The study, looking at the effect on crop production and socio-economic conditions, has followed a two-pronged approach, conducting a field survey and collecting data from secondary sources.

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN WEST AFRICA: A BIO-ECONOMIC MODELING APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 1950015
Author(s):  
BORIS O. K. LOKONON ◽  
AKLESSO Y. G. EGBENDEWE ◽  
NAGA COULIBALY ◽  
CALVIN ATEWAMBA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.

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