Trends in case-fatality rates of COVID-19 in the World, between 2019 - 2020

Introduction: CoV infections can potentially cause from a simple cold to a severe respiratory syndrome, such as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV). The COVID-19 created a new reality for global healthcare models. Objetive: To evaluate trends in case fatality rates of COVID-19 in the World. Methods: We conducted a population based time-series study using public and official data of cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Peru, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States and Russian, between December, 2019 and August, 2020. Data were based on reports from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. COVID-19 was defined by the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (U07.1). A Prais-Winsten regression model was performed and the Daily Percentage Change (DPC) calculated determine rates as increasing, decreasing or flat. Results: During the study period, trends in case-fatality rates in the world were flat (DPC = 0.3; CI 95% [-0.2: 0.7]; p = 0.225). In Africa, Morocco had decreasing trends (DPC = -1.1; CI 95% [-1.5: -0.7]; p < 0.001), whereas it were increasing in South Africa (p < 0.05) and flat in Nigeria (p > 0.05). In the Americas, Argentina showed a decreasing trend in case-fatality rates (DPC = -0.6; CI 95% [-1.1: -0.2]; p = 0.005), the U.S. had flat trends (p > 0.05) and all other American countries had increasing trends (p < 0.05). In Asia, Iran had decreasing trends (DPC = -1.5; CI 95% [-2.6 : -0.2]; p = 0.019); China and Saudi Arabia showed increasing trends (p < 0.05), while in India, Japan and South Korea they were flat (p > 0.05). European countries had mostly increasing trends (p < 0.05): Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Russia; France and Switzerland had flat trends (p > 0.05). Finally, in Oceania, trends in case-fatality rates were flat in Australia (p > 0.05) and increasing in New Zealand (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Trends in case-fatality rates of COVID-19 in the World were flat between December, 31 and August, 31. Argentina, Iran and Morocco were the only countries with decreasing trends. On the other hand, South Africa, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, China, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Spain, United Kingdom, Russian and New Zealand had increasing trends in case-fatality rate. All the other countries analyzed had flat trends. Based on case-fatality rate data, our study supports that COVID-19 pandemic is still in progress worldwide.

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Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.20886 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ahmed Youssef Kada

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Doubling Time ◽

Case Fatality ◽

World Health ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Therapeutic Protocol ◽

First Case ◽

The World ◽

The Impact ◽

At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

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Age and Infectious Dose Significantly Affect Disease Progression after RHDV2 Infection in Naïve Domestic Rabbits

Viruses ◽

10.3390/v13061184 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (6) ◽

pp. 1184

Author(s):

Robyn N. Hall ◽

Tegan King ◽

Tiffany O’Connor ◽

Andrew J. Read ◽

Jane Arrow ◽

...

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Disease Progression ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Low Dose ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Wild Rabbit ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Infectious Dose ◽

Welfare Impacts ◽

Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease

Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus 2 (RHDV2 or GI.2, referring to any virus with lagovirus GI.2 structural genes) is a recently emerged calicivirus that causes generalised hepatic necrosis and disseminated intravascular coagulation leading to death in susceptible lagomorphs (rabbits and hares). Previous studies investigating the virulence of RHDV2 have reported conflicting results, with case fatality rates ranging from 0% to 100% even within a single study. Lagoviruses are of particular importance in Australia and New Zealand where they are used as biocontrol agents to manage wild rabbit populations, which threaten over 300 native species and result in economic impacts in excess of $200 million AUD annually to Australian agricultural industries. It is critically important that any pest control method is both highly effective (i.e., virulent, in the context of viral biocontrols) and has minimal animal welfare impacts. To determine whether RHDV2 might be a suitable candidate biocontrol agent, we investigated the virulence and disease progression of a naturally occurring Australian recombinant RHDV2 in both 5-week-old and 11-week-old New Zealand White laboratory rabbits after either high or low dose oral infection. Objective measures of disease progression were recorded through continuous body temperature monitoring collars, continuous activity monitors, and twice daily observations. We observed a 100% case fatality rate in both infected kittens and adult rabbits after either high dose or low dose infection. Clinical signs of disease, such as pyrexia, weight loss, and reduced activity, were evident in the late stages of infection. Clinical disease, i.e., welfare impacts, were limited to the period after the onset of pyrexia, lasting on average 12 h and increasing in severity as disease progressed. These findings confirm the high virulence of this RHDV2 variant in naïve rabbits. While age and infectious dose significantly affected disease progression, the case fatality rate was consistently 100% under all conditions tested.

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2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia: an unusual lung ultrasound presentation.

10.21203/rs.3.rs-25490/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Letizia Consoli ◽

Vittorio Bendotti ◽

Sara Cicchinelli ◽

Federico Gaioni ◽

Paola Prandolini ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Lung Ultrasound ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Ground Glass Opacity ◽

Public Health Emergency ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Chest Computed Tomography ◽

Ultrasound Findings ◽

The World ◽

Novel Coronavirus

Abstract In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) was first reported in Wuhan, China, and rapidly spread around the world, leading to an international emerging public health emergency. As reported from Chinese experiences, approximately 20% of patients had a severe course, requiring intensive care, with an overall case fatality rate of 2.3%. In diagnosis, chest computed tomography most commonly showed ground-glass opacity with or without consolidative patterns.Herein we report a case of a patient affected by COVID-19 pneumonia referred in the emergency department of our institution on 4 April 2020 with peculiar lung ultrasound findings.

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Python Programming in PyPI for Translational Medicine

International Journal of Translational Medicine ◽

10.3390/ijtm1030019 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 323-331

Author(s):

Yoshiyasu Takefuji

Keyword(s):

Translational Medicine ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Lag Time ◽

The Internet ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Target Values ◽

The World ◽

Python Programming ◽

Python Package

This is the world’s first tutorial article on Python Packaging for beginners and practitioners for translational medicine or medicine in general. This tutorial will allow researchers to demonstrate and showcase their tools on PyPI packages around the world. Nowadays, for translational medicine, researchers need to deal with big data. This paper describes how to build an executable Python Package Index (PyPI) code and package. PyPI is a repository of software for the Python programming language with 5,019,737 files and 544,359 users (programmers) as of 19 October 2021. First, programmers must understand how to scrape a dataset over the Internet; second, they must read the dataset file in csv format; third, build a program to compute the target values; fourth, convert the Python program to the PyPI package.; and fifth, upload the PyPI package. This paper depicts a covidlag executable package as an example for calculating the accurate case fatality rate (CFR) and the lag time from infection to death. You can install the covidlag by pip terminal command and test it. This paper also introduces deathdaily and scorecovid packages on PyPI Stats, which can inform how many users have downloaded the specified PyPI package. The usefulness and applicability of a developed tool can be verified by PyPI Stats with the number of downloaded users.

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The research work of Glaxo Laboratories Limited

Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.1957.0003 ◽

1957 ◽

Vol 146 (923) ◽

pp. 181-193

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

United Kingdom ◽

New Zealand ◽

Research Work ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

Research Activities ◽

The World ◽

Manufacturing Facilities

Before considering its research activities, the Company, and more particularly, lie nature of its business must be described, for this determines the field of its; Research. Glaxo Laboratories Limited has its headquarters at Greenford, Middlesex, and as, in addition to the factory at Greenford, five other factories in the United Kingdom, at Ulverston, Barnard Castle, Montrose, Driffield and Uxbridge. The company has also Subsidiary Companies in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Cuba, Eire, India, Italy, New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa and Uruguay, most of them with manufacturing facilities. The products of the Company are therefore known throughout most of the world.

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Egypt's COVID-19 Recent Happenings and Perspectives: A Mini-Review

Frontiers in Public Health ◽

10.3389/fpubh.2021.696082 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

AbdulRahman A. Saied ◽

Asmaa A. Metwally ◽

Norah Abdullah Bazekh Madkhali ◽

Shafiul Haque ◽

Kuldeep Dhama

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Animal Origin ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Health Concerns ◽

The World ◽

The Usa ◽

Egyptian Government ◽

Low Prevalence ◽

And Control

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has affected countries across the world. While the zoonotic aspects of SARS-CoV-2 are still under investigation, bats and pangolins are currently cited as the animal origin of the virus. Several types of vaccines against COVID-19 have been developed and are being used in vaccination drives across the world. A number of countries are experiencing second and third waves of the pandemic, which have claimed nearly four million lives out of the 180 million people infected globally as of June 2021. The emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants and mutants are posing high public health concerns owing to their rapid transmissibility, higher severity, and in some cases, ability to infect vaccinated people (vaccine breakthrough). Here in this mini-review, we specifically looked at the efforts and actions of the Egyptian government to slow down and control the spread of COVID-19. We also review the COVID-19 statistics in Egypt and the possible reasons behind the low prevalence and high case fatality rate (CFR%), comparing Egypt COVID-19 statistics with China (the epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic) and the USA, Brazil, India, Italy, and France (the first countries in which the numbers of patients infected with COVID-19). Additionally, we have summarized the SARS-CoV-2 variants, vaccines used in Egypt, and the use of medicinal plants as preventive and curative options.

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Prevalence and Epidemiological Trends in Mortality Due to COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

10.21203/rs.3.rs-605546/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Dema A. Alissa ◽

Wejdan Aburas ◽

Hajar Y. Almudaiheem ◽

Zohair Al Aseri ◽

Fahad Alrabiah ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Saudi Arabia ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Respiratory Illness ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Healthcare Facilities ◽

Data Registry ◽

Epidemiological Trends

Abstract Background: Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) created a major public health emergency and an international concern. It is an infectious respiratory illness caused by acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The international mortality rates due to COVID-19 reached 2,748,763 on March 24, 2021. We describe the prevalence, case fatality rate, and epidemiological trends of COVID-19 mortality in Saudi Arabia in this paper.Method: A systematic approach of evaluating COVID-19 related mortalities was established in Saudi Arabia. A scientific committee that evaluated all reported cases with suspicious or confirmed COVID-19 disease using a standardized electronic form. A data registry of all deaths with all clinical parameters was built based on active reporting from all healthcare facilities in Saudi Arabia. Analysis of data using national and regional crude case fatality rate (cCFR) and death per 100,000 population was carried. Descriptive analysis of age, gender, nationality, and comorbidities. Mortality trend was plotted per week and compared to international figures.Results: The total reported number of deaths between March 23rd until April 9, 2021 was 6,737. cCFR was reported as 1.70%, and death per 100,000 population was reported as 19.24 which compared favourably to figures reported by several developed countries. Highest percentages of deaths were among individuals aged between 60-69 years, males (74%), individuals with diabetes (60%), and Hypertension (50%). Conclusion: Case fatality rate and death per 100,000 population in Saudi Arabia is among the lowest in the world due to multiple factors. Several comorbidities have been identified namely diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and cardiac arrhythmias.

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Global Pandemic Trends of COVID-19 in 2020

10.21203/rs.3.rs-625008/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hai-Zhen Chen ◽

Bo Cai ◽

Jian-Guo Chen

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

United States ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Incidence Rate ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

The United States ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

The World

Abstract Background: The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has been global threaten to public health. This paper provides perspective to the decision-making for public health control of the pandemic or the spread of epidemic.Methods: According to the WHO global reported database, we developed and used the number of cumulative cases, and the number of cumulative deaths to calculate and analyze rates of incidence, mortality, and fatality by country, with respect to the 30 highest outbreak (Top 30) countries.Results： As of December 31, 2020, of the global population of 7.585 billion, the cumulative number of reported cases was 81,475,053, and the cumulative number of deaths was 1,798,050. The incidence rate of COVID-19 was 1074.13 per 100,000 population, the mortality rate was 23.70 per 100,000, and the case fatality rate was 2.21%. Among the Top 30 countries, the five countries with the highest number of reported cumulative cases were, in rank, the United States (19,346,790 cases), India (10,266,674), Brazil (7,563,551), Russia (3,159,297) and France (2,556,708), and the five countries with the highest number of cumulative deaths were the United States (335,789 cases), Brazil (192,681), India (148,738), Mexico (123,845) and Italy (73,604). Globally, the countries with the highest incidence rate were, in rank, Andorra, Luxembourg, Montenegro, San Marino, and Czechia; the countries with the highest mortality rate were, in rank, San Marino, Belgium, Slovenia, Italy, and North Macedonia. The highest fatality rate was found in Yemen, Mexico, Montserrat, Isle of Man, and Ecuador, respectively. In China, 96,673 cases of COVID-19 and 4788 deaths were reported in 2020, ranking the 78th and the 43rd, respectively, in the world. The incidence rate and mortality rate were 6.90/105 and 0.34/105, respectively, ranking 207th and 188th in the world. The case fatality rate was 4.95%, ranking 11th in the world.Conclusions： The COVID-19 prevalence is still on the rise, and the turning points of incidence and mortality are not yet forecasted. Personal protection, anti-epidemic measures and efforts from public health personnel, medical professionals, biotechnology R&D personnel, effectiveness of the vaccination programs and the governments, are the important factors to determine the future prevalence of this coronavirus disease.

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Mortality Rate and Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Around The World: An Adjusted Estimation

10.21203/rs.3.rs-151186/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Moslem Taheri Soodejani ◽

Ali Akbar Haghdoost ◽

Mohammad Hassan Lotfi ◽

Marzieh Mahmudimanesh ◽

Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei

Keyword(s):

Diabetes Mellitus ◽

Health Status ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Total Expenditure ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

The World ◽

Per Capita ◽

Prevalence Of Diabetes Mellitus

Abstract Background: The present study is designed to predict the global adjusted values for mortality rate and case fatality rate of COVID-19 around the world. Methods: This research was conducted at the ecological level using data from 100 countries which were chosen randomly. The adjusted values were predicted using beta regression considering predictive factors such as total expenditure on health per capita, expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP, life expectancy and the percentage of the population aged over 65 years, hospital beds (per 1000 population), physicians (per 1000 population), nurses (per 1000 population), prevalence of smoking, prevalence of diabetes mellitus, and number of confirmed tests in each country. In the end, applying Monte Carlo simulation, the adjusted values of mortality rate and case fatality rate for the whole world were estimated.Results: The results of this study showed that two factors including percentage of population ages 65 and above (P=0.03) and Total expenditure on health as % of GDP (P = 0.04) had a statistically significant relationship with the case fatality rate. Moreover, there was a statistically significant relationship between the mortality rate and life expectancy (P = 0.02), total expenditure on health per capita (P < 0.001), nurses (Per 1000 Population) (P=0.04), and the prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus (P=0.04). The mortality rate and case fatality rate for the whole world were estimated to be 0.000001 and 0.026, respectively.Conclusion: It seems that what can cause global concern is not the case fatality rate of the disease, but its mortality rate, which is directly related to the health status of a community. The worse the health status of a community, the greater the number of infected people likely to be there, that ultimately increases the mortality rate of the disease in the community.

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Malaria in Austria 1990-2000

Eurosurveillance ◽

10.2807/esm.08.04.00408-en ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 91-96 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

R Strauss ◽

C Pfeifer

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Endemic Malaria ◽

Increasing Trends

In Austria, between 1990 and 2000, 924 travel related malaria cases were reported (mean = 84/year). No significant decreasing or increasing trends were observed. P. falciparum (n=517; 55.9%) accounted for the highest number of cases followed by P. vivax or ovale (n=321; 34.7%) and P. malariae (n=29; 2.2%). Most infections were contracted in highly endemic malaria regions (n=686; 74.2%) and most cases were reported from the largest counties: Vienna (n=336, 36.4%), Styria (n=156, 16.8%), and Lower Austria (n=151, 16.3%). Overall, 12 deaths occurred, most were caused by P. falciparum (n=9, 75%; case fatality rate: 1.9%). Data on chemoprophylaxis was available for 752 cases (81.4%) but only half of them (n=367, 48.8%) gave detailed information on the drug used. Data on compliance were obtained for only 45.4% of the cases, with only about 60% of patients completing the full course of prophylaxis.

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