scholarly journals Seasonal Variation and Time Trend Analysis of Dog Bite Cases Attending the Anti Rabies Clinic in Delhi using ARIMA Model Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neha Taneja ◽  
Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan ◽  
Sujata Gupta ◽  
Rajesh Gupta ◽  
AY Nirupama
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Model Verification ◽  
Dog Bite ◽  
Cross Sectional

Introduction: Rabies is a fatal viral disease which is transmitted to humans through animal bites, most commonly via dogs. Fortunately, this disease is preventable through timely pre and postexposure vaccination. Aim: To study the seasonal predisposition and trend analysis of dog bite cases attending the anti rabies clinic. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted in the anti rabies clinic of a government hospital in Delhi. Enumeration and inclusion of all dog bite cases were made. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to analyse the available data of dog bites, from 2011 to 2018. In this study, the least Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) value was 12.2 and the corresponding model is ARIMA (1, 0, 0) with the goodness of fit 2 (R2=44%). The model verification was done by noise residual check. The model was applied for time series analysis and forecasting of rabies cases in subsequent years. Results: Total number of dog bite cases were 1,46,344 in last eight years (2011-2018). The maximum number of cases being 27961 in the year 2014 followed by 22385 in the year 2013. A seasonal predisposition of dog bite cases was seen for the month of February to April. The trend analysis forecasting for 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 predicted 11317, 11676, 10157, 8639 and 7120 cases, respectively. Conclusion: Although the dog bite cases will be on a decline in the future, adequate measures need to be strengthened further to sensitise the community about rabies prevention and timely reporting to anti rabies clinic for prophylaxis.

scholarly journals Rabies and International Travellers: A Missing Link

2021 ◽  
Vol 07 (02) ◽  
pp. 9-13
Author(s):  
Sneha Parve ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Dog Bite ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Interview Method ◽  
Slaked Lime ◽  
Adult Vaccination ◽  
History Of ◽  
Not At Risk

Introduction: Rabies is a viral disease endemic in more than 150 countries and territories with highest exposure in Asia and Africa. It is found in all continent except Antarctica. Countries which are not at risk for travel related diseases like rabies, traveller’s going there do not seek medical advice before travelling. In parts where rabies is still a problem, treatment may be in accessible. Methodology: It was OPD based cross sectional study in Adult Vaccination Centre at tertiary care institute. From July to September 2020, the data was collected. Pretested questionnaire was assessed by interview method. Results: We found that maximum travellers 69% were in the age group less than 30 years with mean age being 26. Only 10% of traveller had history of animal bite. Among them 52% had dog bite followed by 47% cat bite while 53% had bleeding. 52% had not used any pre hospital procedure after bite. 21% had applied turmeric, 15% applied slaked lime, while 10% had washed the wound with water and soap. 31% travellers travelled to South Africa. 97% travellers have the idea that dog bite can transmit the disease. Conclusion: Rabies pre-exposure vaccination should be offered to individuals traveling regularly to international destinations and who are at high risk of exposure to potentially rabid animal attacks.

scholarly journals Predicting Economic Performance of Bangladesh using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.

2021 ◽  
pp. 129-148
Author(s):  
Raad Mozib Lalon ◽  
Nusrat Jahan
Keyword(s):  
Autocorrelation Function ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Q Model

This paper attempts to forecast the economic performance of Bangladesh measured with annual GDP data using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model followed by test of goodness of fit using AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) and BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion) index value among six ARIMA models along with several diagnostic tests such as plotting ACF (Autocorrelation Function), PACF (Partial Autocorrelation Function) and performing Unit Root Test of the Residuals estimated by the selected forecasting ARIMA model. We have found the appropriate ARIMA (1,0,1) model useful in predicting the GDP growth of Bangladesh for next couple of years adopting Box-Jenkins approach to construct the ARIMA (p,r,q) model using the GDP data of Bangladesh provided in the World Bank Data stream from 1961 to 2019. JEL classification numbers: B22, B23, C53. Keywords: GDP growth, ACF, PACF, Stationary, ARIMA (p,r,q) model, Forecasting.

Prognosticating the spread of covid-19 pandemic based on optimal arima estimators

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Venuka Sandhir ◽  
Vinod Kumar ◽  
Vikash Kumar
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Stable Case ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Global Threat

Background: COVID-19 cases have been reported as a global threat and several studies are being conducted using various modelling techniques to evaluate patterns of disease dispersion in the upcoming weeks. Here we propose a simple statistical model that could be used to predict the epidemiological extent of community spread of COVID-19from the explicit data based on optimal ARIMA model estimators. Methods: Raw data was retrieved on confirmed cases of COVID-19 from Johns Hopkins University (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted based on cumulative daily figures of confirmed cases aggregated globally for ten major countries to predict their incidence trend. Statistical analysis was completed by using R 3.5.3 software. Results: The optimal ARIMA model having the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value for US (0,2,0); Spain (1,2,0); France (0,2,1); Germany (3,2,2); Iran (1,2,1); China (0,2,1); Russia (3,2,1); India (2,2,2); Australia (1,2,0) and South Africa (0,2,2) imparted the nowcasting of trends for the upcoming weeks. These parameters are (p, d, q) where p refers to number of autoregressive terms, d refers to number of times the series has to be differenced before it becomes stationary, and q refers to number of moving average terms. Results obtained from ARIMA model showed significant decrease cases in Australia; stable case for China and rising cases has been observed in other countries. Conclusion: This study tried their best at predicting the possible proliferate of COVID-19, although spreading significantly depends upon the various control and measurement policy taken by each country.

scholarly journals Health Literacy Regarding Infectious Disease Predicts COVID-19 Preventive Behaviors: A Pathway Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 101053952110139
Author(s):  
Hui Wang ◽  
Pak Leng Cheong ◽  
JianWei Wu ◽  
Iat Kio Van
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Health Literacy ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Influencing Factor ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Situational Factors ◽  
Preventive Behaviors ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Concept Model ◽  
Fit Index

Health literacy has been identified as one vital determinant of public health and healthy behaviors, but very few studies regarding infectious disease prevention have been found. This descriptive cross-sectional study aimed to validate the pathway of infectious disease-specific health literacy (IDSHL), COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) preventive behaviors, and their determinants. A sample of 1459 casino workers in Macao was eligible for analysis. The concept model was verified with a comparative fit index of 0.937 and goodness-of-fit index of 0.971. Government responses was a significant determinant of situational factors (helpfulness of health information, resource accessibility, and organizational training adequacy), while situational factors showed a direct effect on COVID-19 preventive behaviors. Education and organization training adequacy was the strongest influencing factor of IDSHL, which should be a key target of intervention programs for COVID-19.

scholarly journals A cross sectional study to assess the knowledge and response to dog bite among the urban and rural population of Hubballi taluk

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 539
Author(s):  
Maneesha Godbole ◽  
Anjana Ramachandra Joshi ◽  
Dattatraya D. Bant
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Wound Management ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Post Exposure Prophylaxis ◽  
Sectional Study ◽  
Dog Bite ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Canine Rabies ◽  
Rabies Prevention

Background: Rabies is a fatal zoonotic disease of the central nervous system, most commonly caused by the bite of rabid dogs. Globally canine rabies causes 59,000 human deaths, over 3.7 million DALYs and 8.6 billion USD economic losses annually. These losses are due to a lack of knowledge about wound management and post-exposure prophylaxis. The objective of the study was to assess the knowledge and practices following dog bite and its management among the urban and rural population.Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in the field practice area of KIMS, Hubli. 120 households of the urban and rural locality were interviewed with a semi-structured pretested questionnaire.Results: Overall 89.16% of the study population was aware that the disease can be prevented by vaccination. 35% of the rural and 28% of the urban population believed that the disease can spread from person to person. The knowledge about the site and the number of doses of vaccine was poor among both the population. The harmful practices for treatment of bite were still prevalent among both rural (25%) and urban (8.3%) population.Conclusions: The knowledge about the dog bite management and Rabies prevention is insufficient among both populations. There are myths and misconceptions about the disease and wound management. Practices like application of harmful substances like lime, turmeric, mud are the problems hindering rabies prevention and control. Proper steps need to be taken up to control the canine rabies.

Psychometric Testing of the Persian Version of the Perceived Perioperative Competence Scale–Revised

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. E162-E172
Author(s):  
Neda Mirbagher Ajorpaz ◽  
Mansoureh Zagheri Tafreshi ◽  
Jamileh Mohtashami ◽  
Farid Zayeri ◽  
Zahra Rahemi
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Education ◽  
Nursing Students ◽  
Psychometric Properties ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Psychometric Testing ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Validity And Reliability ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Competence Scale ◽  
Fit Index

The clinical competence of nursing students in operating room (OR) is an important issue in nursing education. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Persian Perceived Perioperative Competence Scale–Revised (PPCS-R) instrument. This cross-sectional study was conducted across 12 universities in Iran. The psychometric properties and factor structure of the PPCS-R for OR students was examined. Based on the results of factor analysis, seven items were removed from the original version of the scale. The fitness indices of the Persian scale include comparative fit index (CFI) 5 .90, goodness-of-fit-index (GFI) 5 .86, adjusted goodness-of-fit index (AGFI) 5 .90, normed fit index (NFI) 5 .84, and root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) 5 .04. High validity and reliability indicated the scale’s value for measuring perceived perioperative competence of Iranian OR students.

scholarly journals How self-stigma affects patient activation in persons with type 2 diabetes: a cross-sectional study

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. e034757
Author(s):  
Asuka Kato ◽  
Yuko Fujimaki ◽  
Shin Fujimori ◽  
Akihiro Isogawa ◽  
Yukiko Onishi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Patient Activation ◽  
Self Care ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Sectional Study ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Fit Index

ObjectivesSelf-stigma is associated with lower patient activation levels for self-care in persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, the causal pathway linking self-stigma with patient activation for self-care has not been shown. In order to determine how self-stigma affects patient activation for self-care, we tested a two-path hypothetical model both directly and as mediated by self-esteem and self-efficacy.DesignA cross-sectional study.SettingTwo university hospitals, one general hospital and one clinic in Japan.ParticipantsT2DM outpatients receiving treatment (n=209) completed a self-administered questionnaire comprising the Self-Stigma Scale, Patient Activation Measure, Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, General Self-Efficacy Scale, Patient Health Questionnaire, haemoglobin A1c test, age, sex and body mass index.Primary and secondary outcome measuresSelf-stigma levels were measured by using the Self-Stigma Scale. Patient activation levels were measured by the Patient Activation Measure.ResultsPath analysis showed a strong relationship between self-stigma and patient activation (χ2=27.55, p=0.120; goodness-of-fit index=0.97; adjusted goodness-of-fit index=0.94; comparative fit index=0.98; root mean square error of approximation=0.04). Self-stigma had a direct effect on patient activation (β=−0.20; p=0.002). Indirectly, self-stigma affected patient activation along two paths (β=0.31; p<0.001) by reducing self-esteem (β=−0.22; p<0.001) and self-efficacy (β=−0.36; p<0.001).ConclusionsDue to the cross-sectional design of the study, longitudinal changes between all the variables cannot be established. However, the findings indicate that self-stigma affected patient activation for self-care, both directly and as mediated by self-esteem and self-efficacy. Interventions that increase self-esteem and self-efficacy may decrease self-stigma in patients with T2DM, thus increasing patient activation for self-care.

scholarly journals How many people have been bitten by dogs? A cross-sectional survey of prevalence, incidence and factors associated with dog bites in a UK community

2018 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. 331-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carri Westgarth ◽  
Megan Brooke ◽  
Robert M Christley
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Medical Treatment ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Dog Bite ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Point Change ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Hospital Records ◽  
Dog Bites ◽  
Related Risk

BackgroundDog bite studies are typically based on hospital records and may be biased towards bites requiring significant medical treatment. This study investigated true dog bite prevalence and incidence at a community-level and victim-related risk factors, in order to inform policy and prevention.MethodsA cross-sectional study of a community of 1280 households in Cheshire, UK, surveyed 694 respondents in 385 households. Data included dog ownership and bite history, demographics, health and personality (Ten Item Personality Inventory (TIPI) brief measure). Multivariable logistic regression modelled risk factors for having ever been bitten by a dog, accounting for clustering of individuals within households.ResultsA quarter of participants (24.78%, 95% CI 21.72 to 28.13) reported having ever been bitten by a dog during their lifetime, with only a third of bites described requiring further medical treatment and 0.6% hospital admission. Incidence of dog bites was 18.7 (11.0–31.8) per 1000 population per year. Males were 1.81 times more likely to have been bitten in their lifetime than females (95% CI 1.20 to 2.72, P=0.005). Current owners of multiple dogs were 3.3 times more likely (95% CI 1.13 to 9.69, P=0.03) to report having been bitten than people not currently owning a dog. Regarding all bites described, most commonly people were bitten by a dog that they had never met before the incident (54.7%). Individuals scoring higher in emotional stability had a lower risk of having ever been bitten (OR=0.77 for 1 point change in scale between 1 and 7, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.9, P=0.001).ConclusionThis study suggests that the real burden of dog bites is considerably larger than those estimated from hospital records. Further, many bites do not require medical treatment and hospital-based bite data are not representative of bites within the wider population. Victim personality requires further investigation and potential consideration in the design of bite prevention schemes.

scholarly journals Correlation analysis of air pollutant index levels and dengue cases across five different zones in Selangor, Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Loshini Thiruchelvam ◽  
Sarat C. Dass ◽  
Rafdzah Zaki ◽  
Abqariyah Yahya ◽  
Vijanth S. Asirvadam
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Pollution Index ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Dengue Case ◽  
Arima Models

This study investigated the potential relationship between dengue cases and air quality – as measured by the Air Pollution Index (API) for five zones in the state of Selangor, Malaysia. Dengue case patterns can be learned using prediction models based on feedback (lagged terms). However, the question whether air quality affects dengue cases is still not thoroughly investigated based on such feedback models. This work developed dengue prediction models using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARIMA with an exogeneous variable (ARIMAX) time series methodologies with API as the exogeneous variable. The Box Jenkins approach based on maximum likelihood was used for analysis as it gives effective model estimates and prediction. Three stages of model comparison were carried out for each zone: first with ARIMA models without API, then ARIMAX models with API data from the API station for that zone and finally, ARIMAX models with API data from the zone and spatially neighbouring zones. Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) gives goodness-of-fit versus parsimony comparisons between all elicited models. Our study found that ARIMA models, with the lowest BIC value, outperformed the rest in all five zones. The BIC values for the zone of Kuala Selangor were –800.66, –796.22, and –790.5229, respectively, for ARIMA only, ARIMAX with single API component and ARIMAX with API components from its zone and spatially neighbouring zones. Therefore, we concluded that API levels, either temporally for each zone or spatio- temporally based on neighbouring zones, do not have a significant effect on dengue cases.

Trend analysis and forecasting of the Gökırmak River streamflow (Turkey)

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 230-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gökhan Arslan ◽  
Semih Kale ◽  
Adem Yavuz Sönmez
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Change Point Analysis ◽  
Point Analysis ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Model Time Series ◽  
Streamflow Trend

AbstractThe objective of this paper is to determine the trend and to estimate the streamflow of the Gökırmak River. The possible trend of the streamflow was forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Time series and trend analyses were performed using monthly streamflow data for the period between 1999 and 2014. Pettitt’s change point analysis was employed to detect the time of change for historical streamflow time series. Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s rho tests were also conducted. The results of the change point analysis determined the change point as 2008. The time series analysis showed that the streamflow of the river had a decreasing trend from the past to the present. Results of the trend analysis forecasted a decreasing trend for the streamflow in the future. The decreasing trend in the streamflow may be related to climate change. This paper provides preliminary knowledge of the streamflow trend for the Gökırmak River.

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