scholarly journals Bayesian Regression of Government Expenditure on Revenue in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 21-37
Author(s):  
Olawale Basheer Akanbi
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Bayesian Regression ◽  
Total Expenditure ◽  
Total Revenue ◽  
Regression Parameters ◽  
Bayesian Linear Regression ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Normal Gamma Prior

The relationship between government expenditure and its revenue is generating serious debate among researchers. Similarly, their has been a controversy between the classical and the bayesian modelling. Therfore, this study examined the relationship between the government expenditure and its revenue in Nigeria using the bayesian approach. The finance data extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin from 1989 to 2018 were considered for the study. Bayesian linear regression was used to fit the model. Normal distribution was fit for the likelihood. Thus, normal-gamma prior was elicited for the bayesian regression parameters. The result showed that the Bayesian estimates with elicited normal-gamma prior produced a better posterior mean of 0.536 for the Total Revenue with a smaller posterior standard deviation of 0.00001 when compared with the OLS standard deviation of 0.05256. Similarly, the total revenue explained 78% variations in the Total expenditure. The constructed model fit was: Total Expenditure = 98.57128 + 0.53630* Total Revenue. This showed that a naira unit of the total expenditure will always be increased by 0.54 of the total revenue. Forecast of 30 years for the total expenditure using both OLS and Bayesian (normal gamma prior) were increasing as the years were progressing. Government should look for a way to increase its revenue in order to sustain the future expenses of the government since expenditure increases yearly.

PENGUJIAN WAGNER'S LAW VERSUS KEYNESIAN HYPOTHESIS: PENDEKATAN REGIONAL INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-193
Author(s):  
Esti Pasaribu ◽  
Septriani Septriani
Keyword(s):  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Empirical Theory ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

In this paper, we tested the Wagner’s Law against the Keynesian Hypothesis for Indonesia using granger causality test. After conducting theoretical and empirical theory, this paper is analysing the relationship between government expenditure and GDP percapita. The long run parameters and causality test found valid Wagners’ Law in Indonesia not Keynesian Hypothesis. The results reveal a positive and statistically significant long run effect running from economic growth toward the government expenditure refer to Wagner’s Law in Indonesia. Further more, the growth of population is giving a positive effect for government expenditure also.

Government expenditure and economic growth in the European Union countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 372-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gitana Dudzevičiūtė ◽  
Agnė Šimelytė ◽  
Aušra Liučvaitienė
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide more reliable estimates of the relationship between government spending and economic growth in the European Union (EU) during the period of 1995-2015. Design/methodology/approach The methodology consisted of several different stages. In the first stage for an assessment of dynamics of government spending and economic growth indicators over two decades, descriptive statistics analysis was employed. Correlation analysis helped to identify the relationships between government expenditures (GEs) and economic growth. In the third stage, for modeling the relationship and the estimation of causality between GE and economic growth, Granger causality testing was applied. Findings The research indicated that eight EU countries have a significant relationship between government spending and economic growth. Research limitations/implications This study has been bounded by general GE and economic growth only. The breakdowns of general GE on the basis of the activities they support have not been considered in this paper, which is the main limitation of the research. Despite the limitation, it might be maintained that the research highlights key relationships in the EU countries. Originality/value These insights might be useful for policy makers. In countries with unidirectional causality running from GE to economic growth, the government can employ expenditure as a factor for growth. The governments should ensure that resources are properly managed and efficiently allocated to accelerate economic growth in the countries with unidirectional causality from GDP to GE.

scholarly journals Study of the Relationship between Government Expenditures and Economic Growth for China and Korea

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 6344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jong Chan Lee ◽  
Yi Joong Won ◽  
Sang Young Jei
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Quantile Regression Model ◽  
Moderate Growth ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

On October 18, 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping presented the blueprint for building a modernized socialist nation through the realization of the Xiao Kang (every nation enjoys a peaceful and affluent life; it is meaningless to eliminate the poor) social construction at the 19th Congress of China. Subsequent to the 2008 financial crisis, the world has moved on to the new economic status of the “new normal”. China has also entered the era of Xinchang Thai, which is moving from the high-growth to the moderate-growth phase. Therefore, the government of China emphasizes privatization, liberalization, and deregulation. China is also influenced by government policies due to the nature of socialism. This study confirms China’s current stage of economic development, based on Barro’s theory. Thus, we use a quantile regression model and examine the correlation between economic growth and functional classification of government expenditure during Xi Jinping’s term of office. Furthermore, we selected Korea as a comparative country, as the two countries have common features.

The Effect of Copper Price Shock on the Relationship between Government Revenue and Expenditure: Testing the Fiscal Stability Law of Mongolia

2020 ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
Ariungerel Bayarsaikhan
Keyword(s):  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Copper Price ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
Strong Causality ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Effect Of Copper ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Auto Regression

This study empirically investigates the relationship between government revenue, government expenditure and the copper price in Mongolia, a resource abundant country. Using quarterly data of government revenue, expenditure and international copper price from 2000 to 2015, the results of auto regression (VAR) show that there is a strong causality from revenue to expenditure, while increase in expenditure, most likely, is not accompanied by rises in revenue. This result is consistent with the revenue-spent hypothesis. Moreover, the result also indicates that copper price shock increases revenue, but decreases expenditure. This finding supports the assumption that the Mongolian government follows its Fiscal Stability Law, a strategy that intends to maintain the stability and sustainability of the government budget.

scholarly journals Tax Revenue and Government Expenditure in Sri Lanka: An Econometric AEG Testing Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 ◽  
pp. 31-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.L.M. Aslam
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Government ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

In the global economic administration, tax revenue has been identified as the engine of the government expenditure, but the relationship of them was not investigated econometrically, this situation formulated a research gap for tasting the relationship of them. The aim of this study was to examine the Cointegration relationship among the tax revenue and the government expenditure in Sri Lanka. This study considered two time series variables such as the tax revenue and the government expenditure. The tax revenue was considered as the independent variable and the government expenditure was considered as the dependent variable. The sample period of this study was from 1950 to 2013.The Cointegration technique was used to check the long run relationship and the Error Correction Mechanism was employed to investigate the short run behavior of the tax revenue on the government expenditure. According to the empirical results, the R-squared of the estimated model was 0.99. In the meantime, the Durbin Watson statistics was 0.828. However, this model did not suffer from the spurious problem because the residual of this model was stationary. The tax revenue has sustained positive relationship with government expenditure. And also, the partial coefficients of tax revenue and its probability values in the estimated model were 0.695 (0.000) in short run and 1.031 (0.000) in long run periods. Therefore, the tax revenue and government expenditure had cointegrated at level form I(0) and maintained the long and short run relationship between them.

scholarly journals DÉFICIT FISCAL, CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO E INFLACIÓN, ¿UNA RELACIÓN EXÓGENA?

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (312) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Federico Novelo Urdanivia ◽  
Nancy Muller Durán
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Sole Source ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

<p>En este artículo analizamos la relación entre el crecimiento económico, el déficit fiscal y la inflación en México, considerando el periodo en que ha estado vigente la autonomía del Banco de México respecto del gobierno. Estimamos dos modelos CVAR para demostrar que si el gasto de gobierno es endógeno al crecimiento económico, entonces el déficit fiscal no es necesariamente la única causa de la inflación. Nuestros resultados muestran que, aún sin causalidad en el sentido de Granger, existe una relación negativa de largo plazo entre el gasto de gobierno y la inflación. De manera conjunta, ambos modelos revelan que a mayor crecimiento económico, mayor gasto fiscal y menor inflación.</p><p> </p><p align="center">FISCAL DEFICIT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION, AN EXOGENOUS RELATIONSHIP?</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong><strong></strong></p><p>This paper deals with the relationship between output growth, fiscal deficit and the rate of inflation in Mexico for the period of the independence of Banco de México. A couple of CVAR models are estimated with the aim of testing whether the government expenditure is endogenous to economic growth, in which case the fiscal deficit will not necessarily be the sole source of inflation. According to our empirical results, it is shown that there is a long-run negative relationship between government spending and inflation, without involving a Granger causality. Both models jointly reveal that the higher the economic growth rate, the larger government expenditure and the lower the rate of inflation.</p>

scholarly journals Study of the Relationship between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth for China and Korea

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jong Chan Lee ◽  
Yi Joong Won ◽  
Sang Young Jei
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Quantile Regression Model ◽  
Moderate Growth ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

On October 18, 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping presented the blueprint for building a modernized socialist nation through the realization of the Xiao Kang (Every nation enjoys a peaceful and affluent life, it is meaningless to eliminate the poor) social construction at the 19th Congress of China. Subsequent to the 2008 financial crisis, the world has moved on to the new economic status of the New Normal. China has also entered the era of &ldquo;Xinchang Thai,&rdquo; which is moving from the high-growth to the moderate-growth phase. Therefore, the government of China emphasizes privatization, liberalization, and deregulation. China is also influenced by government policies due to the nature of socialism. This study confirms China&rsquo;s current stage of economic development based on Barro&rsquo;s theory. Thus, we use a quantile regression model and examine the correlation between economic growth and functional classification of government expenditure during Xi Jinping's term of office. Furthermore, we selected Korea as a comparative country as the two countries have common features.

scholarly journals The Impact of Government Expenditures upon Economic Growth in Post-Communist Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marius Sorin Dincă ◽  
Gheorghița Dincă
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
National Defense ◽  
East European ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
Communist Countries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This paper examines the relationship between the structure and share of government expenditure into Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the real GDP per capita. Our study uses a micro panel data for a sample made of ten countries from Central and East European, for the period 2002-2012. The empirical results of the linear regression show that the GDP/capita is positively correlated with public order and safety expenditures as well as with economic actions, while national defense and general public services are negatively correlated. The results obtained largely correspond with the ones reached by other researchers approaching the topic of the relationship between economic growth and composition of the government expenditures. The health and education expenses, though instrumental for the long-term development of any society, did not show any significant impact upon the evolution of the GDP/capita, probably as a result of the short-term available data.

Effects of Government Expenditure on Private Investment in Nigerian Economy (1980–2016)

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-156
Author(s):  
Taiwo Akinlo ◽  
Olusola Joel Oyeleke
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Relationship

This study examined the effect of government expenditure on private investment in Nigeria during the period 1980–2016. The error correction model analysis was used in the study to analyze the relationship between the two variables. The study found that there is a long-run relationship among the variables and that the interest rate and inflation have negative but significant impact on private investment in the long run. On the other hand, government expenditure has positive but insignificant impact on private investment in the long run. In the short run, government expenditure and interest rate have a significant positive impact on private investment in Nigeria, while GDP per capita and inflation negatively impact private investment. The study concluded that there is the need for the government to increase its expenditure particularly on the provision of more infrastructural facilities as this will attract more investment from within and outside the country.

scholarly journals Real Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in the Southern Caucasus Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erdal Gumus ◽  
Rza Mammadov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Policy Formation ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

The primary purpose of this paper is to find out the relationship between real government expenditures and real gross domestic product (GDP) for three countries of the South Caucasus namely, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. The relationship between the variables is essential for policy formation for these countries due to their transition to market economy. There are two main hypotheses related to real government expenditures and growth. The Wagner’s hypothesis argues that the growth of an economy leads to more government spending while Keynes’s hypothesis proposes that government expenditures feed higher economic growth. From policy perspectives, the Keynesian view gives a dominant role in government intervention for higher growth while Wagner view gives just a passive role to the government in economic policy. This paper is designed to investigate these hypotheses by using econometric panel techniques. The analysis covers the years 1990-2016. According to our empirical results, there is a mutually positive relationship between real government expenditures and economic growth in the South Caucasus. At the same time, we also find short and long-term bidirectional causality. These results confirm each other and in line with the existing literature. Our study contributes to the literature as filling the gap by studying the South Caucasus countries.

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