Doubling Time and Its Interpretation for COVID-19 Cases: A Comparative Study in Pimpri Chinchwad Municipal Corporation, Pune, Maharashtra, India

Background: COVID-19, also known as Novel Corona Virus, causes respiratory disorder in humans and has been declared as a global pandemic in the first quarter of the year 2020 by the World Health Organization. As this pandemic persists the second, third and fourth quarters had shown variation in COVID-19 cases. In the first quarter of the year 2021 again there seems to be a rise in cases of COVID-19. So, a comparative analysis from March 2020 – April 2021 of COVID-19 cases has been studied. Methodology: An exponential statistical model was used to calculate the predicted value of COVID-19 using doubling time for a short duration. The cases of COVID-19 were predicted from 10th April 2021 to 10th June 2021 using doubling time and exponential regression method. Results: The distribution of cases showed a curve-linear trend over the last one year. We explored various models like exponential, logarithmic (lo-linear), linear, quadratic, and generalized linear model (GLM) to fit into the observed distribution of cases. Since the distribution of cases was perfectly following a linear trend in each of the four segments, we applied a linear regression model to observed distribution and then predicted the anticipated no. of cases by extending this linear trend to a future period (120 day). With the help of the exponential statistical model, doubling time/rate based on prior 9 days, the predictions of up to 2.61 lakhs cases have been done by the end of June 2021. Conclusion: This study will be useful for the Government of India and Maharashtra state-specific to Pimpri- Chinchwad Municipal Corporation (PCMC), Administrative Units, Frontline health workforce, researchers, and scientists. From this study it has been evident that during the pre-lockdown period, in the initial stages there seems to be rise in cases. While, during lockdown period it was observed that there was relatively decrease in the number of cases. After the government authorities imposed the unlock strategies the cases began to rise as compared to the lockdown period. Thus, it appears that only essential services should be open for the citizens of India and the state lockdown should be carried on for the next 3 months (April 2021 - June 2021).

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REVIEW ARTICLE: DEVELOPEMENT AND USING DENGUE VACCINE FOR DENGUE INFECTION VIRUS

Medical and Health Science Journal ◽

10.33086/mhsj.v3i2.1194 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 8

Author(s):

Firdaus Kabiru Massey ◽

Rika Yulia

Keyword(s):

Aedes Aegypti ◽

Dengue Virus ◽

Dengue Infection ◽

Target Population ◽

World Health ◽

Dengue Virus Infection ◽

High Incidence ◽

The Government ◽

One Year ◽

Health Organization

Abstract : Tropical and subtropical countries are regions with high incidence of dengue infection. Dengue virus infection is estimated to cause 300 million new infections in one year and approximately 1 million severe cases with 2 + 5% deaths. The case of dengue in Indonesia has continued to increase since 1968 until 1980 where all provinces in Indonesia have been affected by the dengue virus. Dengue virus is a virus carried by the Aedes aegypti mosquito in its salivary gland. The virus which is a family group of Flaviviruses has four homologous serotypes, namely DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4, which can cause dengue infection in individuals. Currently there is a shift in the target population from children to adults. This is a problem that needs to be resolved by the government and the community itself. Solution to overcome this, the government needs early prevention efforts to reduce the severity of dengue infection by developing and researching dengue vaccines. Currently a vaccine has been found that can be used as prophylaxis for dengue virus, namely Dengvaxia. This vaccine has been recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) as prophylaxis for dengue infection, but Dengvaxia is only used in areas that are very endemic to dengue fever. The Indonesian Food and Drug Supervisory Agency (BPOM RI) has also approved the use of Dengvaxia as an indication of prevention of dengue infection since August 31, 2016. This vaccine has been approved globally only given to individuals aged between 9-16 years. Keyword : dengue virus, dengvaxia vaccine, Aedes aegypti, endemic

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Preventing Premature Weaning: Management Options for Common Lactation Conditions, Including OMT

Osteopathic Family Physician ◽

10.33181/12012 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 20-25

Author(s):

Denise Sackett ◽

Tala Dajani ◽

David Shoup ◽

Uzoma Ikonne

Keyword(s):

Postpartum Depression ◽

Family Physician ◽

Treatment Options ◽

World Health ◽

Management Options ◽

Pharmacological Management ◽

Control And Prevention ◽

Lactational Mastitis ◽

One Year ◽

Health Organization

The benefits of breastfeeding are well established. The World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend that mothers breastfeed infants for at least one year, but most children are not breastfed that long because of many factors. Breastfeeding mothers face many challenges to continued breastfeeding, including medical conditions that arise during this period, such as postpartum depression and lactational mastitis. Because of a perceived lack of consistent guidance on medication safety, it can be difficult for the family physician to treat these conditions while encouraging mothers to continue breastfeeding. The purpose of the current review is to summarize and clarify treatment options for the osteopathic family physician treating lactating mothers. We specifically focus on the pharmacological management of contraception, postpartum depression, and lactational mastitis.

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Novel Coronavirus 2019 Outbreak: A Global Epidemic

Letters in Drug Design & Discovery ◽

10.2174/1570180817999200802033916 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (12) ◽

pp. 1458-1464

Author(s):

Sweta Kamboj ◽

Rohit Kamboj ◽

Shikha Kamboj ◽

Kumar Guarve ◽

Rohit Dutt

Keyword(s):

World Health ◽

Upper Respiratory Tract ◽

Global Epidemic ◽

The Public ◽

The Government ◽

Tract Disease ◽

The 1960S ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Health Organization ◽

The Impact

Background: In the 1960s, the human coronavirus was designated, which is responsible for the upper respiratory tract disease in children. Back in 2003, mainly 5 new coronaviruses were recognized. This study directly pursues to govern knowledge, attitude and practice of viral and droplet infection isolation safeguard among the researchers during the outbreak of the COVID-19. Introduction: Coronavirus is a proteinaceous and infectious pathogen. It is an etiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Coronavirus, appeared in China from the seafood and poultry market last year, which has spread in various countries, and has caused several deaths. Methods: The literature data has been taken from different search platforms like PubMed, Science Direct, Embase, Web of Science, who.int portal and complied. Results: Corona virology study will be more advanced and outstanding in recent years. COVID-19 epidemic is a threatening reminder not solely for one country but all over the universe. Conclusion: In this review article, we encapsulated the pathogenesis, geographical spread of coronavirus worldwide, also discussed the perspective of diagnosis, effective treatment, and primary recommendations by the World Health Organization, and guidelines of the government to slow down the impact of the virus are also optimistic, efficacious and obliging for the public health. However, it will take a prolonged time in the future to overcome this epidemic.

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ARIMA model for forecasting COVID-19 Death cases in India (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.24107 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jeya Sutha M

Keyword(s):

Arima Model ◽

Public Health Emergency ◽

World Health ◽

The People ◽

The World ◽

The Status ◽

The Government ◽

Health Organization ◽

Spread Of Infection ◽

Death Cases

UNSTRUCTURED COVID-19, the disease caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a highly contagious disease. On January 30, 2020 the World Health Organization declared the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. As of July 25, 2020; 15,947,292 laboratory-confirmed and 642,814 deaths have been reported globally. India has reported 1,338,928 confirmed cases and 31,412 deaths till date. This paper presents different aspects of COVID-19, visualization of the spread of infection and presents the ARIMA model for forecasting the status of COVID-19 death cases in the next 50 days in order to take necessary precaution by the Government to save the people.

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COVID-19 PANDEMIC UPDATES AND PERSPECTIVES. NEED FOR AN INTEGRATED AND EQUITABLE APPROACH.

Thrombosis and Haemostasis ◽

10.1055/a-1535-8807 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Grigoris Gerotziafas ◽

Mariella Catalano ◽

Ioannis Theodorou ◽

Patrick van Dreden ◽

Vincent Marechal ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mitigation Strategies ◽

World Health ◽

Learning Technology ◽

Pharmacological Interventions ◽

Health Crisis ◽

Patients At Risk ◽

Physical Barriers ◽

Risk Of Disease ◽

One Year ◽

Health Organization

One year after the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) and despite the implementation of mandatory physical barriers and social distancing, humanity remains challenged by a long-lasting and devastating public health crisis. Non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) are efficient mitigation strategies. The success of these intense NPI is dependent on the approval and commitment of the population. The launch of a mass vaccination program in many countries in late December 2020 with mRNA vaccines, adenovirus-based vaccines, and inactivated virus vaccines has generated hope for the end of the pandemic. Current issues: The continuous appearance of new pathogenic viral strains and the ability of vaccines to prevent infection and transmission raise important concerns as we try to achieve community immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and its variants. The need of a second and even third generation of vaccines and the possibility of potentially harmful side-effects of the vaccines (i.e. venous thromboembolism ) have already been acknowledged. Perspectives: There is a critical and urgent need for a balanced and integrated strategy for the management of the COVID-19 outbreaks organized on three axes: (1) Prevention of the SARS-CoV-2 infection, (2) Detection and early diagnosis of patients at risk of disease worsening, and (3) Anticipation of medical care (PDA). Conclusion: The “PDA strategy” integrated into state policy for the support and expansion of health systems and introduction of digital organization (i.e. telemedicine, artificial intelligence and machine learning technology) is of major importance for the preservation of citizens’ health and life world-wide.

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Influenza vaccination during pregnancy and influencing factors in Korea: A multicenter questionnaire study of pregnant women and obstetrics and gynecology doctors

BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth ◽

10.1186/s12884-021-03984-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Byung Soo Kang ◽

San Ha Lee ◽

Woo Jeng Kim ◽

Jeong Ha Wie ◽

In Yang Park ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Influenza Vaccination ◽

Pregnant Women ◽

Influencing Factors ◽

World Health ◽

Obstetrics And Gynecology ◽

Health Authorities ◽

The Government ◽

Vaccine Information ◽

Health Organization ◽

Maternal Influenza

Abstract Background Although the World Health Organization and health authorities in most countries recommend that pregnant women receive inactivated influenza virus vaccines, coverage remains low. This study aimed to investigate (1) the proportion of pregnant women who received an influenza vaccination and influencing factors and (2) the proportion of obstetrics and gynecology (OBGYN) doctors who routinely recommend influenza vaccination to pregnant women and influencing factors. Methods Two separate, anonymized questionnaires were developed for physicians and pregnant and postpartum women and were distributed to multicenters and clinics in South Korea. The proportions of women who received influenza vaccination during pregnancy and OBGYN doctors who routinely recommend the influenza vaccine to pregnant women were analyzed. Independent influencing factors for both maternal influenza vaccination and OBGYN doctors’ routine recommendations to pregnant women were analyzed using log-binomial regression analysis. Results The proportion of self-reported influenza vaccination during pregnancy among 522 women was 63.2%. Pregnancy-related independent factors influencing maternal influenza vaccination were “(ever) received information about influenza vaccination during pregnancy” (OR 8.9, 95% CI 4.17–19.01), “received vaccine information about from OBGYN doctors” (OR 11.44, 95% CI 5.46–24.00), “information obtained from other sources” (OR 4.38, 95% CI 2.01–9.55), and “second/third trimester” (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.21–4.82).. Among 372 OBGYN doctors, 76.9% routinely recommended vaccination for pregnant women. Independent factors effecting routine recommendation were “working at a private clinic or hospital” (OR 5.33, 95% CI 2.44–11.65), “awareness of KCDC guidelines” (OR 3.11, 95% CI 1.11–8.73), and “awareness of the 2019 national free influenza vaccination program for pregnant women” (OR 4.88, 95% CI 2.34–10.17). OBGYN doctors most commonly chose ‘guidelines proposed by the government or public health (108, 46%) and academic committees (59, 25%), as a factor which expect to affect the future recommendation Conclusion This study showed that providing information about maternal influenza vaccination, especially by OBGYN doctors, is crucial for increasing vaccination coverage in pregnant women. Closer cooperation between the government and OBGYN academic societies to educate OBGYN doctors might enhance routine recommendations.

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Co-exploring the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the livelihood of persons with disabilities in Bangladesh

Disability Studies Quarterly ◽

10.18061/dsq.v41i3.8377 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 41 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Adity Shayontony Das ◽

Fatema Akter Bonny ◽

Arifa Bente Mohosin ◽

Sabina Faiz Rashid ◽

Md Tanvir Hasan

Keyword(s):

Social Life ◽

World Health ◽

Vulnerable Groups ◽

Formal Sector ◽

Economic Activities ◽

Middle Income ◽

Persons With Disabilities ◽

Household Level ◽

The Government ◽

Health Organization

Background: According to World Health Organization (WHO), vulnerable groups such as persons with disabilities are facing severe impacts of the pandemic. There has always been significant challenges and hurdles in terms of achieving adequate and equitable inclusivity of persons with disabilities in all sections of social life. Education and employment of persons with disabilities were least focused which created more marginalization for the community. The long term impact of these marginalization has also led to the lack of jobs and social security of persons with disabilities, which is very clear now given the crisis in place. In low and middle income countries like Bangladesh the situation is even worse. To better understand the conditions of persons with disabilities in this crisis situation, the present study was initiated to explore the dimensions of livelihood with respect to income and wellbeing of persons with disabilities and to generate evidence for developing policies around these issues.Methods: A qualitative study was undertaken among 30 persons with disabilities from 8 different geographical divisions of Bangladesh. The interviews were conducted through telephone calls due to the existing COVID-19 crisis and mobility restrictions. The respondents were purposively selected based on gender, type of disability, area of resident (urban, rural) and their ability to communicate, therefore most (25/30) respondents were persons with physical disability. Thematic analysis was conducted to generate the findings of the study.Findings: Study findings revealed that majority of the respondents were involved in informal jobs. Predominantly males were daily wage-earners and often the sole breadwinner of the families, very few females were involved in economic activities. Since they had no stable income, the economic shock from the COVID-19 pandemic had affected them badly even leading to household level famine. The study identifies low level of education and informal job security as the primary causes of socio-economic insecurity among persons with disabilities, resulting in challenges in ensuring a stable livelihood during crisis situations, such as COVID-19.Conclusion: Constant alienation of persons of disabilities from the formal sector results in the deterioration of their livelihood standards which even worsen during any emergency crisis such as COVID-19. The study pinpoints that only aided services are not adequate to ensure persons with disabilities' rights rather there is an urgent need of disability inclusion in formal job sector and livelihood training for persons with disabilities. To achieve the Sustainable Development Goals 2030 and to irradiate the inequality towards persons with disabilities in the society it is important for the Government and concern bodies to focus on the inclusiveness with better implementation and monitoring strategies.

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Model Kebijakan Penetapan Institusi Masjid sebagai Shelter dalam Sistem Logistik Bencana di Kota Padang

Jurnal Optimasi Sistem Industri ◽

10.25077/josi.v14.n1.p16-32.2015 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 16

Author(s):

Winny Zilkhalida Hadi ◽

Rika Ampuh Hadiguna

Keyword(s):

Literature Review ◽

West Coast ◽

Swot Analysis ◽

World Health ◽

House Of Quality ◽

The West ◽

Logistics System ◽

Disaster Logistics ◽

The Government ◽

Health Organization

The west coast of Sumatera island is one of potential areas of the earthquake and tsunami that requires high vigilance and preparedness seriously. One is the well-prepared-disaster logistics system. World Health Organization (WHO) has been divided into 10 categories of logistics, including the temporary shelter. The purpose of this study is to study attributes that should be required for the mosque as a shelter for victims of the earthquake and tsunami in Padang and provide recommendations to the government of Padang to prepare the mosque as a shelter. Formulation of mosque attributes as a shelter eligibility has been obtained through literature review and interviews. Attributes have been formulated in the form of questionnaires that filled out by prospective refugees of the earthquake and tsunami in Padang . Result of questionnaire has been used to build the House of Quality (HOQ). Furthermore, a SWOT analysis has been conducted to formulate a strategy for local government in an effort to empower mosques as shelters in Padang. This research has resulted 14 attributes of feasibility mosque as a shelter. Attributes divided into seven categories. Strategies that result based SWOT analysis have nine formulations that consists of two SO strategies, four WO strategies, two ST strategies, and one WT strategies. Implementation of this strategies required responsibility and cooperation between government, community, NGO, and leaders. Keywords: strategy, logistics, mosque, QFD, SWOT analysis AbstrakPantai barat pulau Sumatera merupakan salah satu potensi daerah gempa dan tsunami yang membutuhkan kewaspadaan tinggi dan kesiapan serius. Salah satunya adalah sistem logistik disiapkan bencana. Organisasi Kesehatan Dunia (WHO) telah membagi menjadi 10 kategori logistik termasuk tempat penampungan sementara. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mempelajari atribut yang harus diperlukan untuk masjid sebagai tempat penampungan bagi korban gempa dan tsunami di Padang dan memberikan rekomendasi kepada Pemerintah Kota Padang untuk menyiapkan masjid sebagai tempat berlindung. Perumusan masjid atribut sebagai kelayakan penampungan telah diperoleh melalui kajian pustaka dan wawancara. Atribut telah dirumuskan dalam bentuk kuesioner yang diisi oleh calon pengungsi dari gempa dan tsunami di Padang. Hasil kuesioner telah digunakan untuk membangun Rumah Kualitas (HOQ). Selain itu, analisis SWOT telah dilakukan untuk merumuskan strategi bagi pemerintah daerah dalam upaya memberdayakan masjid sebagai tempat penampungan di Padang. Penelitian ini telah menghasilkan 14 atribut kelayakan masjid sebagai tempat berlindung. Atribut dibagi menjadi tujuh kategori. Strategi yang hasil yang didasarkan analisis SWOT memiliki sembilan formulasi yang terdiri dari dua SO strategi, empat WO strategi, dua strategi ST, dan satu strategi WT. Pelaksanaan strategi ini diperlukan tanggung jawab dan kerjasama antara pemerintah, masyarakat, LSM, dan pemimpin.Kata Kunci : strategi, logistik, masjid, QFD, analisis SWOT

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A PIECEWISE GROWTH MODEL FOR MODELING THE ACCUMULATED NUMBER OF COVID-19 CASES IN THE CITY OF CAMPO GRANDE

REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE BIOMETRIA ◽

10.28951/rbb.v39i1.542 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 39 (1) ◽

pp. 240

Author(s):

Erlandson Ferreira SARAIVA ◽

Leandro SAUER ◽

Basílio De Bragança PEREIRA ◽

Carlos Alberto de Bragança PEREIRA

Keyword(s):

Growth Model ◽

Health Department ◽

World Health ◽

Mathematical Study ◽

Number Of Patients ◽

Technical Report ◽

The World ◽

The Government ◽

Health Organization ◽

The City

In December of 2019, a new coronavirus was discovered in the city of Wuhan, China. The World Health Organization officially named this coronavirus as COVID-19. Since its discovery, the virus has spread rapidly around the world and is currently one of the main health problems, causing an enormous social and economic burden. Due to this, there is a great interest in mathematical models capable of projecting the evolution of the disease in countries, states and/or cities. This interest is mainly due to the fact that the projections may help the government agents in making decisions in relation to the prevention of the disease. By using this argument, the health department of the city (HDC) of Campo Grande asked the UFMS for the development of a mathematical study to project the evolution of the disease in the city. In this paper, we describe a modeling procedure used to fit a piecewise growth model for the accumulated number of cases recorded in the city. From the fitted model, we estimate the date in which the pandemic peak is reached and project the number of patients who will need treatment in intensive care units. Weekly, was sent to HDC a technical report describing the main results.

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Penggunaan Aplikasi Google Classroom sebagai Metode Pembelajaran Daring Selama Pandemi Covid-19

Cakrawala Jurnal Pendidikan ◽

10.24905/cakrawala.v14i2.1710 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 11-17

Author(s):

Mirza Ghulamudin Ghulamudin ◽

Maufur ◽

Beni Habibi

Keyword(s):

Distance Learning ◽

World Health ◽

Ministry Of Education ◽

Health Crisis ◽

Use Of Technology ◽

The World ◽

Teachers And Students ◽

The Government ◽

Health Organization ◽

In The Beginning

Covid-19 has now attacked Indonesia, where the spread of the disease is very fast. Not only in Indonesia, but all corners of the world are currently experiencing a health crisis. In the beginning, the spread of Covid-19 had an impact on economic activity which began to sluggish. This also has an impact on the education system in Indonesia. Until several countries decided to close schools and universities. In an effort to prevent the spread of covid-19, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends temporarily stopping activities that would potentially cause crowds. Even during the outbreak, covid-19 in Indonesia, there were many ways that the government did to prevent its spread through social distancing. Kemendikbud instructed through the Ministry of Education and Culture (Kemendikbud) Directorate of Higher Education Circular No. 1 of 2020 concerning the prevention of the spread of covid-19 in the world of Education to organize distance learning and advise students to learn from their homes. Teachers and students are starting to be required to follow the current situation by using technology as a distance learning medium. One of the media that is being favored by teachers as a learning medium is the Google Classroom application. This application is an application that can make it easier for students and teachers to create effective learning. Given that students today are a generation who are very familiar with the use of technology. The use of technology in learning is an alternative method used by teachers during the Covid-19 Pandemic.

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