Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Spread of Mega-Drought: Setting Forecast and Warning Criteria

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 99-106
Chan Wook Lee ◽  
Gihoon Moon ◽  
Sungjin Hong ◽  
Do Guen Yoo

In South Korea, drought disasters frequently occur due to the narrow area of the river basin and the concentration of rainfall in summer. In addition, climate change caused extreme droughts in 2015, levels that had never been experienced before. Thus, more severe droughts are expected in the future. To date, however, no countermeasures, such as preliminary warning standards for severe drought, have been prepared. In this study, we analyzed the degree of spatio-temporal spread of mega-drought entry situations and prepared the criteria for warnings based on the results. The results of the study can be used as basic data to prepare standards for responding to possible extreme droughts in the future.

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 949 ◽  
Jiwan Lee ◽  
Chunggil Jung ◽  
Sehoon Kim ◽  
Seongjoon Kim

This study was to evaluate the groundwater-level behavior in Geum River Basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea with HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios and future groundwater use data using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Before evaluating future groundwater behavior, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using the daily inflows and storage of two dams (DCD and YDD) in the basin for 11 years (2005–2015), the daily groundwater-level observation data at five locations (JSJS, OCCS, BEMR, CASS, and BYBY), and the daily inflow and storage of three weir locations (SJW, GJW, and BJW) for three years and five months (August 2012 to December 2015). The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) of two dam inflows was 0.55–0.70 and 0.67–0.75. For the inflows of the three weirs, NSE was 0.57–0.77 and R2 was 0.62–0.81. The average R2 value for the groundwater levels of the five locations ranged from 0.53 to 0.61. After verifying the SWAT for hydrologic components, we evaluated the behavior of future groundwater levels by future climate change scenarios and estimated future ground water use by Korean water vision 2020 based on ground water use monitoring data. The future groundwater-level decreased by −13.0, −5.0, and −9.0 cm at three upstream locations (JSJS, OCCS, and BEMR) among the five groundwater-level observation locations and increased by +3.0 and +1.0 cm at two downstream locations (CASS and BYBY). The future groundwater level was directly affected by the groundwater recharge, which was dependent on the seasonal and spatial precipitations in the basin.

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2052 ◽  
Kim ◽  
Yoo ◽  
Chung ◽  

Recently, climate change has increased the frequency of extreme weather events. In South Korea, extreme droughts are frequent and cause serious damage. To identify the risk of extreme drought, we need to calculate the hydrologic risk using probabilistic analysis methods. In particular, future hydrologic risk of extreme drought should be compared to that of the control period. Therefore, this study quantitatively assessed the future hydrologic risk of extreme drought in South Korea according to climate change scenarios based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. A threshold level method was applied to observation-based rainfall data and climate change scenario-based future rainfall data to identify drought events and extract drought characteristics. A bivariate frequency analysis was then performed to estimate the return period considering both duration and severity. The estimated return periods were used to calculate and compare hydrologic risks between the control period and the future. Results indicate that the average duration of drought events for the future was similar with that for the control period, however, the average severity increased in most future scenarios. In addition, there was decreased risk of maximum drought events in the Yeongsan River basin in the future, while there was increased risk in the Nakdong River basin. The median of risk of extreme drought in the future was calculated to be larger than that of the maximum drought in the control period.

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 75-88
Rajendra Man Shrestha ◽  
Azaya Bikram Sthapit ◽  
Srijan Lal Shrestha

Background: The Bagmati River is the rain-fed river in the basin of Nepal. The climate change in rainfall patterns may lead to drought or flashflood in this basin. Drought is a silent and pervasive hazard due to the deficit of water availability. It may have adverse impact on society leading to impact on environment, culture, political and other functions of the region.Objective: This study aims to assess the future drought in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal.Materials and Methods: Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies precipitation data was obtained from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Kathmandu. The Generalized Extreme Distribution was fitted to respective total precipitations in 3 time-scales using EasyFit software. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method was used to derive SPI for winter drought, SPI for summer drought and SPI for long-term (annual) drought.Results: The results of data analysis showed that winter moderate drought episodes may occur in years 2035, 2042, 2048, 2049, 2051 and 2053. Likewise, summer severe drought episode may occur in 2046. The year 2046 also indicated long-term extreme drought. Moreover, 2030, 2031, 2035, 3040 and 2053 may be long-term moderate drought episodes years in future.Conclusion: There may be winter moderate drought, summer severe drought and a long-term extreme as well as moderate drought during the future period 2030-2060.Nepalese Journal of Statistics, Vol. 2, 75-88

Foreign Investment Dilemma: Real Estate on Jeju Island, Korea Gregory Chu 01/31/19 Volume 61 Photo Essay Moving Cuba Jenny Pettit, Charles O. Collins 12/14/18 Feature Article Igarka Vanishes: The Story of a Rapidly Shrinking Russian Arctic City Kelsey Nyland, Valery Grebenets, Nikolay Shiklomanov, Dmitry Streletskiy 10/26/18 Geo Quiz Quiz Nine: Energy Wesley Reisser 09/03/18 Feature Article Agricultural Social Networks as the future of Karst Science Communication in Phong Nha-Kẻ Bàng National Park, Vietnam Elizabeth Willenbrink, Leslie North, Vu Thi Minh Nguyet 08/06/18 Photo Essay Guyana's Linden to Lethem Road: A Metaphor for Conservation and Development Karen Barton 07/05/18 Photo Essay Schools in South Korea: Where have All the Children Gone? Michael Robinson 06/03/18 Geo Quiz Quiz Eight: The Geography of Food Origins Antoinette WinklerPrins 05/10/18 Feature Article America's Public Lands: What, Where, Why, and What Next? David J. Rutherford 04/22/18 Feature Article Cuba's Precarious Population Pyramid Charles O. Collins 03/19/18 Feature Article Reimagining Zimbabwe’s Cape-to-Cairo Railroad Thomas Wikle 02/21/18 Geo Quiz Quiz Seven: The Built Environment Deborah Popper 02/05/18 Photo Essay Constructing Nationalism Through the Cityscape: The Skopje 2014 Project Wesley Reisser 01/24/18 Feature Article Agave Cultivation, Terracing, and Conservation in Mexico Matthew LaFevor, Jordan Cissell, James Misfeldt 01/17/18 Volume 60 Geo Quiz Quiz Six: Symbols Wesley Reisser 12/22/17 Photo Essay Organic Agriculture, Scale, and the Production of a Region in Northeast, India David Meek 12/08/17 Feature Article The Joola: The Geographical Dimensions of Africa's Greatest Shipwreck Karen Barton 11/02/17 Geo Quiz Quiz Five: Transportation Wesley Reisser 09/30/17 Feature Article Shrinking Space and Expanding Population: Socioeconomic Impacts of Majuli’s Changing Geography Avijit Sahay, Nikhil Roy 09/07/17 Photo Essay A Stroll through Seville W. George Lovell 08/14/17 Geo Quiz Quiz Four: Water Wesley Reisser 06/22/17 Photo Essay Wildlife Conservation in Kenya and Tanzania and Effects on Maasai Communities Daniel Sambu 05/24/17 Feature Article Floods Collide with Sprawl in Louisiana's Amite River Basin Craig Colten 04/24/17 Geo Quiz Quiz Three: The Arctic Wesley Reisser 03/08/17 Feature Article Exploring Arctic Diversity by Hitting the Road: Where Finland, Norway, and Russia Meet Julia Gerlach, Nadir Kinossian 02/06/17 Photo Essay Urban Agriculture in Helsinki, Finland Sophia E. Hagolani-Albov 01/03/17 Volume 59 Feature Article Living and Spirtual Worlds of Mali's Dogon People Thomas Wikle 10/27/16 Photo Essay Postcards from Oaxaca's Past and Present Scott Brady 10/27/16 Geo Quiz Quiz Two: Sustainability and Conservation Wesley Reisser 10/27/16 Feature Article From Ranching to Fishing – the Cultural Landscape of the Northern Pacific Coast of Baja California, Mexico Antoinette WinklerPrins, Pablo Alvarez, Gerardo Bocco, Ileana Espejel 07/06/16 Photo Essay Many Destinations, One Place Called Home: Migration and Livelihood for Rural Bolivians Marie Price 07/06/16 Geo Quiz Quiz One: Explorers Wesley Reisser 07/06/16 Foreign Investment Dilemma: Real Estate on Jeju Island, Korea

2019 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
Gregory H. Chu

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Joo-Heon Lee ◽  
Hyun-Han Kwon ◽  
Ho-Won Jang ◽  
Tae-Woong Kim

This study attempts to analyze several drought features in South Korea from various perspectives using a three-month standard precipitation index. In particular, this study aims to evaluate changes in spatial distribution in terms of frequency and severity of droughts in the future due to climate change, using IPCC (intergovernmental panel on climate change) GCM (general circulation model) simulations. First, the Mann-Kendall method was adopted to identify drought trends at the five major watersheds. The simulated temporal evolution of SPI (standardized precipitation index) during the winter showed significant drying trends in most parts of the watersheds, while the simulated SPI during the spring showed a somewhat different feature in the GCMs. Second, this study explored the low-frequency patterns associated with drought by comparing global wavelet power, with significance test. Future spectra decreased in the fractional variance attributed to a reduction in the interannual band from 2 to 8 years. Finally, the changes in the frequency and the severity under climate change were evaluated through the drought spell analyses. Overall features of drought conditions in the future showed a tendency to increase (about 6%) in frequency and severity of droughts during the dry season (i.e., from October to May) under climate change.

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3858
Yixuan Guo ◽  
Yidong Wang ◽  
Shufeng Chen ◽  
Shunan Zheng ◽  
Changcheng Guo ◽  

Livestock and poultry farming sectors are among the largest anthropogenic methane (CH4) emission sources, mainly from enteric fermentation and manure management. Previous inventories of CH4 emission were generally based on constant emission factor (EF) per head, which had some weaknesses mainly due to the succession of breeding and feeding systems over decades. Here, more reliable long-term changes of CH4 emissions from livestock and poultry farming in Beijing are estimated using the dynamic EFs based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 method, and high-resolution spatial patterns of CH4 emissions are also estimated with intensive field survey. The results showed that the estimated CH4 emissions derived by dynamic EFs were approximately 13–19% lower than those based on the constant EF before 2010. After 2011, however, the dynamic EFs-derived CH4 emissions were a little higher (3%) than the constant EF method. Temporal CH4 emissions in Beijing had experienced four developing stages (1978–1988: stable; 1989–1998: slow growth; 1999–2004: rapid growth and reached hot moments; 2005–2014: decline) during 1978–2014. Over the first two decades, the contributions of pigs (45%) and cattle (46%) to annual CH4 emission were similar; subsequently, the cattle emitted more CH4 compared to the pigs. At a spatial scale, Shunyi, Daxing, and Tongzhou districts with more cattle and pigs are the hotspots of CH4 emission. In conclusion, the dynamic EFs method obviously improved the spatio-temporal estimates of CH4 emissions compared to the constant EF approach, and the improvements depended on the period and aquaculture structure. Therefore, the dynamic EFs method should be recommended for estimating CH4 emissions from livestock and poultry farming in the future.

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 9276
Ha Kyung Lee ◽  
So Jeong Lee ◽  
Min Kyung Kim ◽  
Sang Don Lee

Information on the phenological shift of plants can be used to detect climate change and predict changes in the ecosystem. In this study, the changes in first flowering dates (FFDs) of the plum tree (Prunus mume), Korean forsythia (Forsythia koreana), Korean rosebay (Rhododendron mucronulatum), cherry tree (Prunus yedoensis), and peach tree (Prunus persica) in Korea during 1920–2019 were investigated. In addition, the changes in the climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) and their relationship with the FFDs were analyzed. The changes in the temperature and precipitation during the January–February–March period and the phenological shifts of all research species during 1920–2019 indicate that warm and dry spring weather advances the FFDs. Moreover, the temperature has a greater impact on this phenological shift than precipitation. Earlier flowering species are more likely to advance their FFDs than later flowering species. Hence, the temporal asynchrony among plant species will become worse with climate change. In addition, the FFDs in 2100 were predicted based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The difference between the predicted FFDs of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 for 2100 was significant; the effectiveness of greenhouse gas policies will presumably determine the degree of the plant phenological shift in the future. Furthermore, we presented the predicted FFDs for 2100.

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 3249-3255
Emmanuel Kwame Appiah-Adjei ◽  
Long Cang Shu ◽  
Kwaku Amaning Adjei ◽  
Cheng Peng Lu

In order to ensure availability of water throughout the year in the Tailan River basin of northwestern China, an underground reservoir has been constructed in the basin to augment the groundwater resource and efficiently utilize it. This study investigates the potential impact of future climate change on the reservoir by assessing its influence on sustainability of recharge sources to the reservoir. The methods employed involved using a combined Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) to downscale the climate variations of the basin from a global climate model and applying them through a simple soil water balance to quantify their impact on recharge to the reservoir. The results predict the current mean monthly temperature of the basin to increase by 2.01°C and 2.84°C for the future periods 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, respectively, while the precipitations are to decrease by 25% and 36% over the same periods. Consequently, the water balance analyses project the recharge to the reservoir to decrease by 37% and 49% for the periods 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, respectively. Thus the study provides useful information for sustainable management of the reservoir against potential future climate changes.

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1490 ◽  
Amy Steimke ◽  
Bangshuai Han ◽  
Jodi Brandt ◽  
Alejandro Flores

Hydrologic scientists and water resource managers often focus on different facets of flow regimes in changing climates. The objective of this work is to examine potential hydrological changes in the Upper Boise River Basin, Idaho, USA in the context of biophysical variables and their impacts a key variable governing administration of water resources in the region in an integrated way. This snowmelt-dominated, mountainous watershed supplies water to a semi-arid, agriculturally intensive, but rapidly urbanizing, region. Using the Envision integrated modeling framework, we created a hydrological model to simulate hydrological response to the year 2100 using six alternative future climate trajectories. Annual discharge increased from historical values by 6–24% across all simulations (with an average 13% increase), reflecting an increase in precipitation in the climate projections. Discharge peaked 4–33 days earlier and streamflow center of timing occurred 4–17 days earlier by midcentury. Examining changes in the date junior water rights holders begin to be curtailed regionally (the Day of Allocation), we found that the it occurs at least 14 days earlier by 2100 across all simulations, with one suggesting it could occur over a month earlier. These results suggest that current methods and policies of water rights accounting and management may need to be revised moving into the future.

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