Italian economy faces tougher challenges in 2022

Significance This fast growth will more than offset the impact of the pandemic, which pulled down real output by 8.9% in 2020. Nevertheless, there are significant downside risks associated with inflation, monetary policy and political uncertainty. Impacts Italy faces higher borrowing costs in the new year as the ECB gradually tightens its ultra-loose monetary policy. If the winter is cold and Russian energy supplies run short, Italy will have to tap its strategic reserves to slow the growth of prices. Skilled labour shortages, weak productivity and inefficient public bureaucracy will weigh on medium-to-long-term growth.

Knowledge management in turbulent times: time-based scenario analysis of vaccinations against COVID-19

Purpose This paper aims to estimate the delay or timely effects of the national vaccination strategy for COVID-19 on Italian gross domestic product (GDP). By adopting a knowledge management lens, the study highlights the importance of “time” for Italian recovery. Indeed, recovering an adequate growth rate is crucial for the future of employment, well-being and management of Italian public debt. Design/methodology/approach This study applies an epidemiological model of a universal access vaccination programme against COVID-19. The economic model is based on the time-shift of available quarterly projections deriving from the expected delay or acceleration of the national vaccination plan against COVID-19. Findings The basic concept underlying the scenario analysis is that the sustainability of the expected recovery of the Italian economy due to the COVID-19 shock, and consequently the growth of the GDP, is time-dependent on the rollout of the national vaccination plan. Research limitations/implications A delay in the vaccination campaign could have a twofold negative impact on the growth of the Italian gross product: it reduces the quarterly growth over the previous year in the short term and it delays the quarterly upwards trend over the next two years. Policymakers and practitioners are called to promptly face new dynamic scenarios due to public and economic policies to fight the COVID-19 crisis. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt of research that focuses attention on the synchrony between the economic time necessary for recovery and the real-time necessary to achieve vaccination coverage for the restart of production activities.

Asbestos Removal Acceleration for New Jobs and Fossil Fuel Use Reduction for Public Health and Climate Readiness: A Contribution to the Revival of the Italian Economy Post-COVID-19

The Italian economy has been battered by the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic. European Union and Italian government economic recovery funds will provide special economic recovery loans aimed toward energy saving and the consequent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals. In, Italy, millions of square meters of asbestos cement (AC) roofing cover industrial and civic buildings. Removal of this asbestos containing material (ACM) would contribute to three pandemic and economic recovery objectives: job creation, reduction of greenhouse gasses (thru energy savings), and public health improvements. Though asbestos was used for its excellent thermal insulation properties, we provide calculations that demonstrate that the cement binding in AC roofing negates the asbestos insulation function. Therefore, replacing AC roofing with roofs made with alternative materials with better thermal transmission coefficients can contribute significantly to energy savings, reduce the risk of asbestos-related morbidity and mortality, and establish substantial economic activity.

COVID-19 and a trade-off between health and economics: an extended inoperability model for Italy

PurposeThe recent COVID-19 has obliged governments to enact large-scale policies to contain it. A topic of economic debate is the quantification of the impact that these policies can create in the economy, with the aim of activating regulatory mechanisms to minimize this impact. In this vein, this study aims to propose a quantification of the effects of the Italian government policy that blocks nonessential production activities.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a multisectoral extended inoperability model on the social accounting matrix of Italy. The analysis identifies the pandemic’s impact on outputs, endogenous demands, value-added and disposable incomes of institutional sectors.FindingsThe construction and real estate sectors revealed a significant contraction followed by the retail trade and hotel and catering services sectors. The output contraction further impacts the value-added generation, disposable income and final demand components.Originality/valueThe current pandemic is alleged to have a greater impact than the epidemics of the past century, considering the present dimension of the world economy and the increasing interconnections between industries and institutions. In this scenario, it is challenging to safeguard not only human health and life but also the economy. Hence, there is a need to establish a trade-off between health and economics; and in this regard, the current study empirically quantifies the impact of health measures on the economy. The findings of this study help identify the sectors that are more prone to disaster effects and also present the structure of income circular flow in the Italian economy.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on enterprises in Italy

The Covid-19 pandemic and the measures that have been adopted to try and contain it have had a deep impact on the Italian economy, the scope of which cannot be perfectly gauged as yet. The consequences of Covid-19 crisis have affected Italian enterprises’ operating in different sectors. Most of enterprises have been obliged to change their technical ways. Thus, new specific trends and actions have been adopted during this challenging period.

Life Cycle Assessment of an Innovative Technology against Late Frosts in Vineyard

Wine production is a key sector for the Italian economy, representing 13 billion euros per year. The proportion of the market raises concerns about improving the production technology at low cost, safe practices, and low environmental impacts. The recurrent life cycle assessment performed does not report on the impacts of frost protection. This study presents the potential environmental impact of a novel late frost protection technique for vineyards that is currently under development. It consists of an organic coating made of sugar and straw to prevent vine damage due to frosts in vineyards in the coldest hours of late winter and early spring. From previous research at the University of Perugia (Italy), the technique has proven to be an effective protection method for vine shoots. Currently, the yields are protected by highly energy-demanding methods. For this study, we simulated two different scenarios of frosting protection so we could point out possible hotspots for the field application of the novel method and compare it to a technique usually employed in central Italy. Under the Centrum voor Milieukunde Leiden (CML) method, the cotton candy technique is estimated at 316 kg CO2 equivalent emissions for hectare. Employing the organic sugar-coating means avoiding 69,375 kg of CO2 eq. compared to the traditional technique of oak wood-burning into the vineyard. Preliminary cost analysis demonstrated the economic viability of implementing the organic coating.

Conceptualization of Machine Learning in Economic Forecasting

Economic forecasting is a very important aspect that policymakers in the financial and corporate organization rely on because helps them to determine future events that might infringe some hardship on the economy and the citizens at large. However, the principal statistical pointers that are available to the public domain provide numerous reservations and doubts for their economics estimates as it is later released with frequent issues to major revisions and also it shows a great lag in decision making for an incoming event. To this effect, the expansion of the latest forecasting patterns was important to address the gaps. Hence, this paper examines the conceptualization of Machine learning in economic forecasting. To achieve this, the Italian economy was used as the dataset, and machine learning controlled tools were used as the method of analysis. The result obtained from this study shows that machine learning is a better model to use in economic forecasting for quick and reliable data to avert future events.

The Concentration of Personal Wealth in Italy 1995–2016

Italy is one the countries with the highest wealth-to-income ratio in the developed world. Yet, despite the growing policy interest, knowledge about the size distribution of wealth is currently limited. In this paper we expand our windows of observation on the distribution of personal wealth using a novel source on the full record of inheritance tax files. The data cover up to 63% of the deceased population and are available between 1995 and 2016, a period of substantial economic turbulence and structural reform for the Italian economy. Our benchmark results rely on the distribution of the net wealth observed in the National Accounts balance sheets. Unlike available statistics estimated from household survey data, our results point to a strong rise in wealth concentration and inequality since the mid-1990s. Whereas the level of wealth concentration in Italy is in line with those of other European countries, its time trend appears more in line with the U.S. experience. Moreover, Italy stands out as one of the countries with the strongest decline in the wealth share of the bottom 50% of the adult population. We explore the role of household wealth portfolios, accumulation patterns during the life cycle, and inheritance flows, its concentration, and taxation patterns as main drivers of the trends observed. A range of alternative series of wealth concentration helps us better understand the role of adjustments and imputations and is based on a multi-series approach, i.e., comparing the pieces of information given by different and competing sources. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)

PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN-ITALIAN ECONOMIC COOPERATION

The trade restrictions imposed by the European Union in relation to Russia have the most negative impact on the state of the Italian-Russian trade and economic cooperation. In terms of economic indicators, the Italian economy is in recession. Italian exports to Russia fell by more than a third, which negatively affects small and medium-sized businesses, suppliers of high-tech products (gas and oil production equipment for work, in particular, in the Arctic latitudes), military-technical cooperation, which has always been evidence of the traditionally trusting partnership between Russia and Italy.

The Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy on the Sustainable Food Consumption Intention From a “One Health” Perspective

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a transmissible illness that was recognized in December 2019 and World Health Organization (WHO) stated a pandemic on 11 March 2020. As no cure has been developed for COVID-19 disease yet, Italy has adopted restrictive measures to avoid the spread of the virus, causing different psychological reactions (e.g., stress, anxiety) that lead people to change lifestyle and in particular the consumer orientation toward food. In addition, the COVID-19 emergency had also affected the Italian economy, causing an 11.3% decrease in GDP (gross domestic product). All these changes gave rise to a sense of instability, but it is known that new possibilities may arise in these situations. In particular, the pandemic could be the turning point to make consumers aware of the close link between human health and the ecosystems, supporting the “One Health” perspective and enhancing the orientation to consumer sustainable food products. However, little is known about how the psychological reactions to COVID-19 emergency have affected the consumers' intention to purchase sustainable food products. In order to answer these questions, a representative sample of 1,004 Italian citizens, extracted by stratified sampling, answered an online survey between May the 12th and 18th 2020. The data were analyzed using ANOVA and contingency tables. The results show that during phase one of COVID-19 disease about 30% of the sample reported that have frequently (often and always) consumed the certified sustainable food products and about 20% of the sample have intention to increase the consumption of them in the next 6 months, percentages that increase among those who feel more vulnerable regarding the risk contagion. Moreover, the psychological impact of the COVID-19 emergency has led to a change in consumers' attitudes, increasing the interest in animal and environmental issues and in human health. These aspects seem to drive the future intention of purchasing sustainable food products. This research highlights how the psychological reactions to the health emergency have changed the consumers' attitudes toward sustainability issues, leading them to follow a more sustainable diet that is recognized as a way to preserve human health, environmental preservation, and animal welfare for present and future generations.