Prediction of southern oscillation index using spectral components

The time series of SOI (Southern Oscillation Index, Tahiti minus Darwin sea-level atmospheric pressure difference) was spectrally analysed by a simple method MEM-MRA, where periodicities are detected by MEM (Maximum Entropy Method) and used in MRA (Multiple Regression Analysis) to get the estimates of their amplitudes and phases. From these, the three or four most prominent ones were used for reconstruction and prediction. Using data for 1935-80 as dependent data, the reconstructed values of SOI matched well with observed values and most of the El Niños (SOI minima) and La Niñas (SOI maxima) were located correctly. But for the independent data (1980 onwards), the matching was poor. Omitting earlier data, 1945- 80, 1955-80, 1965-80 as dependent data again gave poor matching for 1980 onwards. When data for 1980 onwards only were used as dependent data, the matching was better, indicating that the spectral characteristics have changed considerably with time and recent data were more appropriate for further predictions. The 1997 El Niño was reproduced only in data for 1985 onwards. For 1990 onwards, only a single wave of 3.5 years was appropriate and explained the 1997 and 1994 events but only one (1991) of the 3 complex and quick events that occurred during 1989-95. The UCLA group of Dr. Ghil has been using the SSA (Singular Spectrum Analysis)-MEM combination for SOI analysis. For the 1980s, they got very good matching, but the 1989-95 structures were not reproduced. For recent years, their SSA-filtered SOI (used for prediction) is a simple sinusoid of ~3.5 years. It predicted the El Niño of 1997 only at its peak and even after using data up to February 1997, the abrupt commencement of the event in March 1997 and its abrupt end in June 1998 could not be predicted. Using only a 3.5 years wave, an El Niño was expected for 2000-2001. However, a very long-lasting La Niña seems to be operative and there are no indications as yet (September of 2001) of any El Niño like conditions.

3D waviness effect of carbon nanotubes on fundamental natural frequency and modeling of resonance of nanocomposite structure

Optimum waviness of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) inside a matrix composite beam and composite bridge is endeavor to obtain its utmost natural frequencies considering a volume fraction of CNTs. 3D FE model of the beam is generated via ABAQUS along with Python programming and thereafter to calculate an optimal waviness under encastre boundary conditions and different vibration modes. The effect of waviness and the number of waves on mode shapes, natural frequency, and corresponding stiffness of a beam are examined, and the outcomes are compared to those of a pure polymer beam, straight CNT-based composite beam and nanobridge value. It was decided to conduct a convergence analysis and the optimum value of the number of elements and nodes was studied and found that 19666 nodes are reliable to give correct results. The FE analysis results reveal that the waviness effect of CNTs significantly depends on mode shapes. The fundamental natural frequency, as well as other related vibrational properties, is observed to be enhanced. By decreasing the waviness from 50 to 25, there is an increment in natural frequency in the 3rd mode by 68.68, 5th mode by 44.6 and 6th mode by 62.4, but in other modes, there is negligible difference. When single-wave CNTs were compared, the sine wave produced more frequency in the third mode by 206.03, 4th mode by 199.8 and 6th mode by 478.6[Formula: see text]Hz. After comparing the results of different waviness types, single sine waviness, multi-waved CNTs, straight CNTs and neat matrix, it is found that for the highest value of waviness of CNT fiber-based nanocomposites, the natural frequency of CNT-reinforced nanocomposite reaches the frequency of the neat matrix and further adding of CNTs does not increase the value of frequency. The result showed that the finite element model (FEM) is a good simulation of the vibratory system.

Signatures of midlatitude heat waves in Rossby wave variability spectra

<p>This work aims at identifying extreme circulation conditions such as heat waves in modal space which is defined by eigensolutions of the linearized primitive equations. Here, the Rossby waves are represented in terms of Hough harmonics that are an orthogonal and complete expansion set allowing Rossby wave diagnostics in terms of their total (kinetic and available potential) energies. We expect that this diagnostic provides a more clear picture of the Rossby wave variability spectra compared to the common Fourier decomposition along a latitude belt. </p> <p>The probability distributions of Rossby wave energies are analysed separately for the zonal mean flow, for the planetary and synoptic zonal wavenumbers. The robustness is ensured by considering the four reanalyses ERA5, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and MERRA. A single wave is characterized by Gaussianity in the complex Hough amplitudes and by a chi-square distribution for the energies. We find that the distributions of the energy anomalies in the wavenumber space are non-Gaussian with almost the same positive skewness in the four reanalyses.  The skewness increases during persistent heat waves for all energy anomaly distributions, in agreement with the recent trend of increased subseasonal variance in large-scale Rossby waves and decreased variance at synoptic scales. The new approach offers a selective filtering to physical space. The reconstructed circulation during heat waves is dominated by large-scale anticyclonic systems in northeastern Europe with zonal wavenumbers 2 and 3, in agreement with previous studies, thereby demonstrating physical meaningfulness of the skewness. </p> <p> </p>

Modeling of thermal stresses during hardening the product surface by thermal pulse

A particular solution of a linear variant of the dynamic thermal elasticity problem is considered in application to modeling the conditions of surface hardening of metal products by an energy pulse. The authors determined the equation of medium motion with the model of temperature pulse tested earlier for compatibility with special cases of the equations of parabolic and hyperbolic thermal conductivity. The problem of loading a flat plane of a short circular cylinder (disk) with a temperature pulse is presented. Pulse is a consequence of adopted structure of the volumetric power density of the heat flux, the time multiplier of which has the form of a single wave of the Heaviside function. Classical thermoelastic displacement potential and the method of its division into the product of independent variables functions were used to construct the thermal stress tensor. Differential equations for multiplier functions and their general solutions were found. Natural boundary conditions were set for the components of thermal stress tensor, and their tasks were solved. The obtained solutions are in the form of segments of functional series (the Bessel function in radial coordinate and the exponential function in axial coordinate). The article considers a numerical example of loading a disk made of 40KhN steel which has the mechanical properties sensitive to temperature treatment. Maple computer mathematics package was used in the calculations. Approximate solutions take into account the first 24 terms of the functional series. Estimation of the example makes it possible to explain the presence of stress peaks and stress intensity as a consequence of mutually inverse processes of temperature stress growth and reduction of elasticity coefficients with temperature rise. The numerical example warns against relying only on estimates of solutions to thermoelasticity problems without taking into account the plastic and viscous properties of the material.

MOMO. IV. The Complete Swift X-Ray and UV/Optical Light Curve and Characteristic Variability of the Blazar OJ 287 during the Last Two Decades

We have been carrying out a dense monitoring of the blazar OJ 287 with Swift since late 2015 as part of our project MOMO (Multiwavelength Observations and Modeling of OJ 287). This is the densest existing monitoring of OJ 287 involving X-ray/UV data. In this latest publication of a sequence, we characterize the multiwavelength variability of OJ 287 based on >4000 Swift single-wave-band data sets including archival data since 2005. A structure function analysis reveals a characteristic timescale of ∼5 days in the optical–UV at epochs of low-level activity and larger during outbursts. The discrete correlation function shows zero lag between optical and UV, with τ = 0 ± 1 day at the epoch of densest cadence. During outbursts (in 2016/17 and 2020) the X-rays follow the UV with near-zero lags. However, during quiescence, the delay is 7–18 days with X-rays leading or lagging, interpreted as due to a different X-ray component dominated by inverse Compton emission. Scaling relations are used to derive the characteristic length scales of the broad-line region and torus in OJ 287. A remarkable, symmetric UV–optical deep fade is identified in late 2017, lasting 2 months. We rule out occultation from the passage of a dusty cloud and a model where the secondary black hole deflects the jet between the primary and observer. We speculate about a temporary dispersion or jet swing event in the core or in a bright quasi-stationary jet feature. The deep fade reveals an additional, spatially distinct X-ray component. The epoch 2020.9–2021.1 was searched for precursor flare activity predicted by the binary black hole model of OJ 287.

Multiwave Total Focusing Method for Full-Matrix Imaging Using Ultrasonic Phased Array

The imaging range of the traditional total focusing method (TFM) is usually limited by the directivity of excitation of a single wave pattern. In this paper, a multiwave TFM technique is proposed, which uses both compression and shear vertical (SV) waves for detection and imaging simultaneously. Based on this technique, a special ultrasonic transducer for multiwave detection is designed that can balance the excitation amplitude of compression and SV waves. Multiwave TFM uses the compression and SV wave fields generated by the same excitation, and the signals reflected by the two sound fields passing through the discontinuity are received. The signals are respectively processed by TFM according to the compression and SV wave velocities. The two processed signals are shifted and aligned according to the time difference between the compression wave with SV wave propagation, and then added together. Finally, the detection image of the block is obtained. Through simulation and experiments, it is shown that the special transducer can optimize the imaging range and effect of multiwave TFM, and multiwave TFM can effectively detect discontinuities and reduce the rate of missed detection at higher steering angles. The detection results show that the maximum amplitude gain of multiwave TFM relative to TFM can be increased about 6 dB.

Structure Dynamic Response of Amphibious Aircraft Induced by Water-Taxiing

The significant dynamic response under the combined impact of aerodynamic and hydrodynamic forces could be likely to appear because of the structural flexibility, when taxiing on the water surface for amphibious aircraft. Meanwhile, the modal characteristics of the structure are also affected by the additional motion of water. These require that the influence of the structural elasticity and the coupling effect between water and structure should be considered in dynamic response analysis of water-taxiing. According to the peculiarities of the amphibious aircraft, structural dynamics model is based on the distribution of stiffness and mass, Virtual Mass Theory is utilized to solve the wet modes on the water surface, rational function approximations of unsteady aerodynamic force in time-domain are constructed by the Minimum-State Approximation Formula, and loose coupling method is employed to simulate the hydrodynamic elastic response under the encounter of amphibian with single wave and repeated waves, respectively. Analysis of dynamic characteristics during the water-taxiing of the amphibious aircraft has been achieved in this work. The results show that wet natural frequencies of the aircraft have different degrees of decline compared with the dry frequencies because of the influence of added water on the hull, and the response amplitude of dynamic loads obtained by using the wet modes have some certain extent decrease compared with the dry modes. The dynamic amplitude of different locations changes in different degree relatives to the center of gravity position, which reflects the influence of structural elasticity. Due to the excitation of single wave and repeated waves, the structural vibration amplitude will increase rapidly, but the amplitude shows a certain divergence trend under the action of repeated waves with a given oscillation frequency, which is more severe for structural strength design.

Averaged energy-balance analysis of wavy micro-channels

This study presents numerical simulations of the convective heat transfer on wavy micro-channels to investigate heat transfer enhancement in these systems. The goal is to extend the analysis of our previous work [1, 2], by proposing a methodology based on local and global energy balances in the device instead of the commonly used Nusselt number. The analysis is performed on a single-wave baseline micro-channel model that is exposed to a heat influx. The governing equations for an incompressible laminar flow and conjugate heat transfer are first built, and then solved, for representative models, under several operating conditions, by the finite element technique. From computed velocity, pressure and temperature fields, local and global energy balances based on cross-section-averaged velocities and temperatures enable calculating the heat rate at each section. Results from this study show that this so-called averaged energy-balance methodology enables an accurate assessment of the channel performance.

Generation of ultrashort pulses in the THz frequency range

There are results for the spontaneous coherent super-radiative undulator emission in the terahertz frequency range from a short (as compared to the wavelength of the radiated wave) dense electron bunch. If the group velocity of the wave is close to the bunch velocity, this is a process of spontaneous radiation followed by amplification of a single wave cycle. Despite the Coulomb repulsion of electrons inside the bunch, its compactness is provided by the compression of the bunch under the action of its own radiation fields. As a result, formation of an ultra-short (several cycles long) powerful wave packet occurs when the bunch moves through several undulator periods with high (∼20% in optimized systems) efficiency of extraction of the electron energy and high intensity (∼ 100 MV/m) of the peak wave field.