COVID-19 impact on Socio-economic and Health Interventions: A Gaps and Peaks analysis using Clustering Approach

A quantifiable model to describe the peaks and gaps during the several waves of COVID 19 is generated and applied to the progression of 120 countries. The number of waves encountered and how many more to be encountered is a question which is currently explored by all the scientific communities. In the same quest, an attempt has been made to quantitatively model the peaks and the gaps within them which have been encountered by 120 most affected countries from February 2020 to December 2021. These 120 countries were ranked based on the number of confirmed cases and deaths recorded during this period. This study further cluster these countries based on socio economic and health interventions to find an association with three dependent features of COVID 19 i.e. number of confirmed cases, deaths and death infectivity rate. The findings in this study suggests that, every wave had multiple peaks within them and as the number of peaks increased, predicting their growth rate or decline rate turns to be extremely difficult. However, considering the clusters which share the common features even with diverse countries, there is some possibility to predict what might be coming next. This study involves exhaustive analysis of reliable data which are available in open access and marks an important aspect to the COVID 19 research communities.

SN 2015bq: A Luminous Type Ia Supernova with Early Flux Excess

We present optical and ultraviolet (UV) observations of a luminous type Ia supernova (SN Ia) SN 2015bq characterized by early flux excess. This SN reaches a B-band absolute magnitude at M B = −19.68 ± 0.41 mag and a peak bolometric luminosity at L = (1.75 ± 0.37) × 1043 erg s−1, with a relatively small post-maximum decline rate [Δm 15(B) = 0.82 ± 0.05 mag]. The flux excess observed in the light curves of SN 2015bq a few days after the explosion, especially seen in the UV bands, might be due to the radioactive decay of 56Ni mixed into the surface. The radiation from the decay of the surface 56Ni heats the outer layer of this SN. It produces blue U − B color followed by monotonically reddening in the early phase, dominated iron-group lines, and weak intermediate-mass element absorption features in the early spectra. The scenario of enhanced 56Ni in the surface is consistent with a large amount of 56Ni ( M 56 Ni = 0.97 ± 0.20 M ☉) synthesized during the explosion. The properties of SN 2015bq are found to locate between SN 1991T and SN 1999aa, suggesting the latter two subclasses of SNe Ia may have a common origin.

Performance Analysis of Gas Wells Based on the Conventional Decline Parameters and the Flow Integral Equation

The estimation of reserves and performance prediction are two vital tasks for the development of gas reservoirs where the evaluation of gas in place or well-controlled reserves, as the foundation of the performance analysis of gas wells, turns to be exceedingly significant. Advanced production data analysis or modern rate transient analysis (RTA) methods mainly depend on the iterative calculations of material balance quasitime ( t ca ) and type curve fitting, the essence of which is to update the average reservoir pressure data time and again. The traditional Arps’ decline models are of empirical nature despite the convenience and applicability to the constant bottomhole pressure (BHP) condition. In order to avoid the implicit iteration, this paper develops an explicit method for estimating the average reservoir pressure on the basis of dynamic material balance equation (DMBE), termed “flow integral method,” which can be applied to various gas production systems under boundary-dominated flow (BDF). Based on the flow integral method and the decline parameter evaluation, we employ the hyperbolic decline model to model the gas well performance at a constant BHP. The analytical formulations of decline rate and decline exponent are deduced from the DMBE and the static material balance equation (SMBE) considering the elastic compressibilities of rock pore and bound water. The resulting decline parameter method for explicit estimation of gas reserves boasts a solid and rigorous theory foundation that production rate, decline rate, and average reservoir pressure profiles have reference to each other, and its implementation steps are explained in the paper. The SMBE can, combined with the estimated pressure profile by the flow integral method, also be used to determine gas reserves which is not limited to the constant-BHP condition and can calibrate the estimates of the decline parameter method. The proposed methods are proven effective and reliable with several numerical cases at different BHPs and a field example.

Gas Well Deliquification in the Presence of High Content of Condensate: From Laboratory to Field Test

Two foaming formulations, an amphoteric surfactant (noted as Fam) and a blend of anionic-cationic-amphoteric surfactants (noted as Facam) have been prepared and tested at lab and in field in the presence of high content of condensate (60 vol% on average). Foam height with Facam are close to those with Fam. Although Fam has better foam stability without condensate, the half-life of the foam (t1/2) decreases by 50% in presence of condensate. Foam generated by Facam shows better oil resistance performance due to negative spreading coefficient (S). Liquid unloading efficiency with Facam are close to those with Fam at lab. Nevertheless in field application, Facam is more efficient than Fam for the deliquification in the gas well. The depth of gas well is 2126 m. Foaming formulations were injected respectively from casing pipe with injection amount of 1-2kg/day. The pressure difference between casing and tubing pipes (ΔPc-t) decreased from 1.0 MPa to 0.28 MPa, and the decline of gas production was slowed down after the injection of Facam in the gas well. As a contrast, both theΔPc-t and decline rate of gas production were increased with Fam. Foam resistance to condensate is a factor, while emulsion viscosity is inferred to be another crucial factor for the performance of formulations in the deliquification process.

The effect of postmortem pH decline rate on mitochondrial apoptosis and tenderness of bovine skeletal muscle during aging

This study aimed to investigate the effect of postmortem pH decline rate on mitochondrial dysfunction-induced apoptosis and bovine muscle tenderness during aging. Protein denaturation, reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels, mitochondrial apoptosis factors, and shear force were assessed in bovine muscles with different pH decline rates. The results showed that compared to the slow group, fast pH decline in bovine muscle significantly increased sarcoplasmic protein denaturation at 6–12 h and mitochondrial ROS levels at 6–24 h (P<0.05), and in turn significantly accentuated mitochondrial dysfunction and cytochrome c oxidation levels (P<0.05), resulting in caspase-3 activation, apoptosis, and reduced muscle shear force (P<0.05). These results demonstrated that the fast postmortem pH decline enhanced mitochondrial apoptosis and bovine muscle tenderization by inducing ROS accumulation during aging.

Kinetics of Anti-Sars-Cov-2 Antibody Responses 3 Months Post Complete Vaccination with BNT162b2; A Prospective Study in 283 Health Workers

Background: Levels of neutralizing antibodies (NΑbs) against SARS-CoV-2 correlate with clinically relevant immune protection from COVID-19. However, a slight decline in antibody titers has become evident even at one month following the second BNT162b2 shot, whereas increased time since the second vaccine dose has been associated with decreased NAb activity against SARS-CoV-2 variants. The aim of this study was to investigate the kinetics of NAbs and anti-S-RBD IgGs after vaccination of health workers with the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine over a period of up to three months after the second shot. The possible influence of comorbidities, characteristics of the subjects, co-medication, and adverse events was also investigated. Methods: All participants have been enrolled in a large prospective study (NCT04743388) evaluating the kinetics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies after COVID-19 vaccination. Main inclusion criteria for participation in this study were eligibility for vaccination according to the national program for COVID-19, age above 18 years, and ability to sign the informed consent form. Major exclusion criteria included the presence of active malignant disease, immunosuppressive therapy, and end-stage renal disease. According to National Immunization Program, access to the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine was available to anyone 18 years of age or older. NΑbs and anti-S-RBD IgG titers were measured on days 1 (before the first vaccine shot), 8, 22 (before the second shot), 36, 50, and three months after the second vaccination (D111), using FDA approved methods, namely, cPass™ SARS-CoV2 NAbs Detection Kit (GenScript, Piscataway, NJ, USA) and Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 S assay (Roche Diagnostics GmbH, Mannheim, Germany), respectively. Results: In total, 283 health workers (median age 48 years) were included in this study. On D1, immediately before vaccination, the median neutralizing inhibition was 14.2%, while 29 individuals (10.2%) had inhibition levels above the positive threshold of the method (30%). NAbs showed a rapid increase from D8 to D36 on a constant rate of about 3% per day and reached a median (SD) of 97.2% (4.7) at D36. From D36 to D50 a slight decrease in NAbs values was detected and it became more prominent between D50 and D111, when the rate of decline was determined at -0.11 per day. The median (SD) NAbs titers at D111 were 92.7% (11.8). Paired grouped comparisons using the Wilcoxon signed ranks test showed statistically significant differences in inhibition levels between pairs: D36 vs. D50, D36 vs. D111, and D50 vs. D111 (for all three comparisons p&lt;0.001) (Figure A). A similar pattern was also observed for anti-S-RBD antibodies. It is worth mentioning that compared to NAbs, the maximum anti-S-RBD levels were reached two weeks later, i.e., at D36. Interestingly, anti-S-RBDs showed a steeper increase during D22-D36 and a lower decline rate during D36-D111. All consecutive pairs comparison, using Wilcoxon's test, led to p-values&lt;0.001 (Figure B). There was an almost linear relationship between NAbs and anti-S-RBD at D22 (Spearman's rho correlation coefficient equal to 0.718). However, their relationship became non-linear from D36; this is due to the steep increase in anti-S-RBD levels that was observed during the D22-D36 period, while the corresponding increase rate for NAbs was much lower. Also, the decline of anti-S-RBD titers was lower compared to that of NAbs. The composite effect of these functions led to a non-linear pattern. Furthermore, prior COVID-19 and younger age were associated with superior antibody responses over time. Regarding those with previous positive PCR for SARS-CoV-2, significantly higher levels were observed at the initial phase (D1, D8) (Mann-Whitney p-values&lt;0.001) and at D111 (p=0.046). From D50 there was a trend for a slower decline rate for those with previous positive PCR. Younger individuals had higher antibody titers at D36, D50, and D111, which is due to a slower decline in NAbs compared to the older group of participants (for all three comparisons, Wilcoxon's p-values were&lt;0.05). Conclusions: We found a persistent but declining anti-SARS-CoV-2 humoral immunity at 3 months following full vaccination with BNT162b2 in healthy individuals. Our longitudinal study is ongoing to determine the time point of NAbs reduction below the positivity threshold; then a booster vaccine dose might be necessary to maintain humoral immunity against SARS-CoV-2. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Terpos: Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Novartis: Honoraria; BMS: Honoraria; Sanofi: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; GSK: Honoraria, Research Funding; Janssen-Cilag: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Genesis: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding. Gavriatopoulou: Janssen: Honoraria; Karyopharm: Honoraria; Genesis: Honoraria; Sanofi: Honoraria; GSK: Honoraria; Takeda: Honoraria; Amgen: Honoraria. Dimopoulos: Takeda: Honoraria; Beigene: Honoraria; Amgen: Honoraria; BMS: Honoraria; Janssen: Honoraria.

Development of Production-Forecasting Model Based on the Characteristics of Production Decline Analysis Using the Reservoir and Hydraulic Fracture Parameters in Montney Shale Gas Reservoir, Canada

This study developed a production-forecasting model to replace the numerical simulation and the decline curve analysis using reservoir and hydraulic fracture data in Montney shale gas reservoir, Canada. A shale-gas production curve can be generated if some of the decline parameters such as a peak rate, a decline rate, and a decline exponent are properly estimated based on reservoir and hydraulic fracturing parameters. The production-forecasting model was developed to estimate five decline parameters of a modified hyperbolic decline by using significant reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters which are derived through the simulation experiments designed by design of experiments and statistical analysis: (1) initial peak rate ( P hyp ), (2) hyperbolic decline rate ( D hyp ), (3) hyperbolic decline exponent ( b hyp ), (4) transition time ( T transition ), and (5) exponential decline rate ( D exp ). Total eight reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters were selected as significant parameters on five decline parameters from the results of multivariate analysis of variance among 11 reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters. The models based on the significant parameters had high predicted R 2 values on the cumulative production. The validation results on the 1-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year cumulative production data obtained by the simulation showed a good agreement: R 2 > 0.89 . The developed production-forecasting model can be also applied for the history matching. The mean absolute percentage error on history matching was 5.28% and 6.23% for the forecasting model and numerical simulator, respectively. Therefore, the results from this study can be applied to substitute numerical simulations for the shale reservoirs which have similar properties with the Montney shale gas reservoir.

Automation & Digitalization Implementation – A New Normal in Oil & Gas Industry: A Success Story

Nowadays automation and digitalization in oil & gas industry have become a new normal practice to replace traditional workflows. The implementation of automation and digitalization is driven by the need to automate the repetitive and low-cognitive tasks, so it allows engineers to spend more time on high-cognitive and high-level analytical evaluations or studies, and to finally lead up to smarter decisions. One of the solutions is by developing and implementing "fit for purpose" automation tools which consist of various data analytics inside the tools. Saka Energi Indonesia, as the operator of Pangkah PSC, has developed and implemented automation and digitalization in Ujung Pangkah field. Located in northern side of East Java, the field's reservoir consists of multi-layered carbonate oil and gas zone, which is being produced through horizontal and directional wells. Solutions of automation and digitalization have been developed for the Ujung Pangkah field to minimize loss opportunity, increase oil production and reduce the field decline rate. With some collaboration efforts from Subsurface, Operation and IT Department Team, some automation tools have been developed and implemented in Ujung Pangkah Field, which are as follows: Exception Based Surveillance (EBS) tool: An automation tool to identify real-time well problems & opportunities. Auto Gas Lift Rate Allocation (GALAA) tool: An optimization tool to automate gas lift rate allocation. SAKA Well Opportunity, Register, Define and Select (SWORDS): An automation tool to evaluate well opportunity portfolio. Well Model Update Automation: A tool to update well model automatically for every individual well. By implementing the automation solutions, various repetitive tasks can be completed significantly faster and more efficiently. Saka engineers have more time to perform high-cognitive analytical evaluations on other technical areas. Ujung Pangkah field oil production decline rate has been successfully decreased from 21%/year to 8.6%/year after the automation solutions have been implemented in 2018. Ujung Pangkah success story of automation & digitalization implementation will be used as a reference for managing other Saka assets in different fields. The new automation solutions are a faster and a more efficient way of optimizing existing field production and it will give positive impacts exponentially with increasing well numbers.

Trends in Cognitive Function Pre- and Post- Stroke among Chinese Population

Introduction: To learn the trajectories of cognitive function before and after stroke among Chinese participants. Method: During the seven-year follow-up, 401 participants survived incident stroke and 7551 remained stroke free. Cognitive function was assessed by a global cognition score, which included episodic memory, visuospatial abilities, and executive function. A linear mixed model was developed to explore the repeated measurements. Result: There was no significant difference between the rate of pre-stroke cognitive decline and the decline rate of cognition among stroke-free participants. Among the stroke survivors, the acute decline was -0.123 and -0.187 SD/y in cognitive domains of episodic memory and visuospatial ability, respectively. Executive function did not decline acutely after stroke. In the years after stroke, the decline rate of global cognition was 0.074 SD/y faster than the rate before stroke. The additional decline rate of episodic memory and executive function was 0.043 and 0.061 SD/y, respectively. The rate of visuospatial ability did not change after stroke. Conclusion: Among Chinese stroke survivors, incident stroke was associated with acute decline in episodic memory and visuospatial abilities, and accelerated decline in episodic memory, orientation, attention, and calculation. Cognitive training may help alleviate post-stroke cognitive impairment.