An Alternative Explanation of the Orbital Expansion of Titan and Other Bodies in the Solar System

Recently it was found from Cassini data that the mean recession speed of Titan from Saturn is v = 11.3 ± 2.0 cm/yr which corresponds to a tidal quality factor of Saturn Q ≈ 100 while the standard estimate yields Q ≥ 6 · 104 . It was assumed that such a large speed v is due to a resonance locking mechanism of five inner mid-sized moons of Saturn. In this paper, we show that an essential part of v may come from a local Hubble expansion, where the Hubble-Lemaˆıtre constant H0 recalculated to the Saturn-Titan distance D is 8.15 cm/(yrD). Our hypothesis is based on many other observations showing a slight expansion of the Solar system and also of our Galaxy at a rate comparable with H0. We demonstrate that the large disproportion in estimating the Q factor can be just caused by the local expansion effect. [Accepted for publication in "Gravitation and Cosmology". The paper is to appear in Vol. 28, Issue 2 (2022) of the journal Gravitation and Cosmology.]

A method to estimate probability of disease and vaccine efficacy from clinical trial immunogenicity data

Vaccine efficacy is often assessed by counting disease cases in a clinical trial. A new quantitative framework proposed here (“PoDBAY,” Probability of Disease Bayesian Analysis), estimates vaccine efficacy (and confidence interval) using immune response biomarker data collected shortly after vaccination. Given a biomarker associated with protection, PoDBAY describes the relationship between biomarker and probability of disease as a sigmoid probability of disease (“PoD”) curve. The PoDBAY framework is illustrated using clinical trial simulations and with data for influenza, zoster, and dengue virus vaccines. The simulations demonstrate that PoDBAY efficacy estimation (which integrates the PoD and biomarker data), can be accurate and more precise than the standard (case-count) estimation, contributing to more sensitive and specific decisions than threshold-based correlate of protection or case-count-based methods. For all three vaccine examples, the PoD fit indicates a substantial association between the biomarkers and protection, and efficacy estimated by PoDBAY from relatively little immunogenicity data is predictive of the standard estimate of efficacy, demonstrating how PoDBAY can provide early assessments of vaccine efficacy. Methods like PoDBAY can help accelerate and economize vaccine development using an immunological predictor of protection. For example, in the current effort against the COVID-19 pandemic it might provide information to help prioritize (rank) candidates both earlier in a trial and earlier in development.

PERBANDINGAN ALGORITMA SPECKLE FILTERING PADA CITRA SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR UNTUK ESTIMASI STOK KARBON VEGETASI TEGAKAN RUANG TERBUKA HIJAU (STUDI KASUS: KECAMATAN SUNGAI PINANG, KOTA SAMARINDA)

Vegetasi tegakan pada RTH menyimpan stok karbon yang lebih banyak dibandingkan dengan vegetasi non tegakan sehingga dibutuhkan cara dan teknologi yang efektif dan efisien untuk melakukan monitoring dan perhitungan stok karbon. Penginderaan jauh sistem aktif menggunakan citra SAR mampu berperan dalam deteksi, monitoring, dan perhitungan stok karbon tanpa terhalang oleh tutupan awan dan pengaruh atmosfer dengan cakupan area yang luas, waktu yang cepat, biaya yang relatif lebih murah dengan hasil yang baik. Salah satu kendala dalam pemanfaatan citra SAR adalah adanya noise atau speckle, sehingga memerlukan speckle filter yang tepat untuk meminimalisir noise. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan performa algoritma speckle filtering pada Citra Sentinel 1A SAR dalam mengestimasi biomassa dan stok karbon tegakan RTH dan mengetahui besarnya nilai kandungan biomassa dan stok karbon pada vegetasi tegakan RTH. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini meliputi analisis statistik inferensial parametrik berupa analisis korelasi Pearson Product Moment dan analisis regresi linear sederhana antara nilai backscatter SAR pada berbagai algoritma speckle filtering dengan nilai biomassa tegakan berdasarkan persamaan alometrik. Uji akurasi model dilakukan menggunakan metode Standard Estimate Error (SEE) terhadap model estimasi yang dibangun. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa algoritma Median pada polarisasi VH memiliki akurasi maksimum tertinggi sebesar 67,35% dan estimasi kesalahan terkecil sebesar 0,11825 ton/piksel. Total biomassa tegakan RTH menggunakan algoritma Median VH di Kecamatan Sungai Pinang sebesar 37.969,4163 ton, sementara total stok karbon tegakan RTH menggunakan algoritma Median VH sebesar 17.845,62566 ton.

Influence of Leadership Style, Motivation, Work Environment and Compensation to The Performance of Office Officers Camat Rasanae West Bima City

The Office clerk of the West city of Bima has felt the best performance in carrying out its duties and expecting rewards alongside salaries or wages as an incentive to the achievements he has given. The purpose of this research is to know whether leadership style, motivation, work environment and compensation affect employee performance.This research was conducted in the office of West Surabaya's headquarters in Bima with a population of 130. The samples used were 70 respondents. Independent variables in the study are leadership style, motivation, work environment and compensation, while dependent variables are employee performance. Performance measurement is done using Likert scale. Data analysis is done by double linear regression model with back-Ward method applied SPSS Program version 14.00 for window.From standard estimate to variable leadership style (X1), motivation (X2), Work Environment (X3), compensation (X4) and employee performance (Y), it can be created structural equations as follows Y = 20,981 + 0.051 X1 + 0.215 X2 + 0.132 X3 + 0.067 X4 + ei. The results of the analysis showed that employees ' performance variables were influenced by leadership styles, motivations, working environments and simultaneous compensation or together by 85.30% while the remaining 14.70% were influenced by other factors beyond the model of this study.

Horizontal Residual Mean: Addressing the Limited Spatial Resolution of Ocean Models

Horizontal fluxes of heat and other scalar quantities in the ocean are due to correlations between the horizontal velocity and tracer fields. However, the limited spatial resolution of ocean models means that these correlations are not fully resolved using the velocity and temperature evaluated on the model grid, due to the limited spatial resolution and the boxcar-averaged nature of the velocity and the scalar field. In this article, a method of estimating the horizontal flux due to unresolved spatial correlations is proposed, based on the depth-integrated horizontal transport from the seafloor to the density surface whose spatially averaged height is the height of the calculation. This depth-integrated horizontal transport takes into account the subgrid velocity and density variations to compensate the standard estimate of horizontal transport based on staircase-like velocity and density. It is not a parameterization of unresolved eddies, since it utilizes data available in ocean models without relying on any presumed parameter such as diffusivity. The method is termed the horizontal residual mean (HRM). The method is capable of estimating the spatial-correlation-induced water transport in a 1/4° global ocean model, using model data smoothed to 3/4°. The HRM extra overturning has a peak in the Southern Ocean of about 1.5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). This indicates an extra heat transport of 0.015 PW on average in the same area. It is expected that implementing the scheme in a coarse-resolution ocean model will improve its representation of lateral heat fluxes.

Estimating Prevalence Using an Imperfect Test

The standard estimate of prevalence is the proportion of positive results obtained from the application of a diagnostic test to a random sample of individuals drawn from the population of interest. When the diagnostic test is imperfect, this estimate is biased. We give simple formulae, previously described by Greenland (1996) for correcting the bias and for calculating confidence intervals for the prevalence when the sensitivity and specificity of the test are known. We suggest a Bayesian method for constructing credible intervals for the prevalence when sensitivity and specificity are unknown. We provide R code to implement the method.

Evolution of the hypsometric relationship in Araucaria angustifolia plantations in the mid-south region of Paraná state

The aim of this study was to assess and model the evolution of the hypsometric relationship in Araucaria angustifolia plantations grown in the 1940's and 1960's in the Irati National Forest, in the mid-south region of Paraná state, Brazil. Using the complete stem analysis method, it was possible to reconstitute the past annual growth of the diameter at 1.3 m (d) and of the total height (h) of a sample of 30 trees, selected so as to cover diametric and age variability. Eleven discs were removed from each tree at 0.1 and 1.3 m and at 15, 25, 35,..., 95% of the total height. Eleven models traditionally used in hypsometric relationships were tested, two of which were considered generic because they involved the age variable. The models were selected based on the Adjusted Coefficient of Determination (R²Adj), Standard Estimate Error (Syx), absolute (m) and relative (%), and on the graphic distribution of residues in percentage. In the models tested by age, no tendencies were observed and erros (Syx) remained below 14.6%, except for ages 5 and 11. However, the coefficients of determination were low, ranging from 0.29 to 0.55. The Curtis generic model (1970), selected to represent the h/d curve for all ages, also presented a satisfactory performance (R²Adj = 0.87 and Syx = 16%), with results similar to those obtained for the models in each age. As age increases, the h/d curve shifts to the right and changes level, remaining steep at the younger ages and more stable and flat as the population nears the end of its cycle.

ESTIMATIVA DA EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DO FEIJÃO CAUPI UTILIZANDO O MODELO DE PENMAN-MONTEITH

ESTIMATIVA DA EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DO FEIJÃO CAUPI UTILIZANDO O MODELO DE PENMAN-MONTEITH José Romualdo de Sousa Lima1; Antonio Celso Dantas Antonino2; Willames de Albuquerque Soares2; Ivandro de França da Silva11Departamento de Solos e Engenharia Rural, Centro de Ciências Agrárias, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, Areia, PB, [email protected] Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, PE 1 RESUMO O modelo de Penman-Monteith (PM) com uma resistência do dossel (rc) variável foi usado para estimar a evapotranspiração (ET) do feijão caupi sob diferentes condições atmosféricas e de conteúdo de água do solo. A resistência rc é função da temperatura do ar, do déficit de pressão de vapor, do saldo de radiação e do conteúdo de água do solo. Esses parâmetros foram medidos, com sensores conectados a uma central de aquisição, numa área cultivada de 4,0 ha, localizada no CCA-UFPB, Areia, PB. A ET foi determinada experimentalmente por meio do método do Balanço de Energia-razão de Bowen. O conteúdo de água do solo foi monitorado com sensores do tipo TDR. O desempenho do modelo de PM foi avaliado comparando-se os valores horários e diários de ET calculados e os determinados experimentalmente. O valor do erro padrão (SE) para os valores horários da ET foi de 0,02 mm h-1, enquanto o índice d (Id) foi 0,99; para os valores diários, SE foi de 0,45 mm d-1 e o Id de 0,89. O modelo de PM pode ser usado para estimar com exatidão a ET do feijão caupi nas escalas horária e diária. UNITERMOS: razão de Bowen, calor latente, conteúdo de água no solo, irrigação, TDR LIMA, J. R. de S.; ANTONINO, A. C. D.; SOARES, W. de A.; SILVA, I. de F. da.COWPEA EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ESTIMATE USING THE PENMAN-MONTEITH MODEL 2 ABSTRACT The Penman-Monteith model with a variable surface canopy resistance (rc) was used to estimate cowpea crop evapotranspiration (ET) under different soil water content and atmospheric conditions. rc is a function of air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, net radiation and soil water content. These parameters were measured with sensors connected to a datalogger, in a 4.0-ha cultivated area situated at the CCA-UFPB, Areia, PB. ET was determined experimentally by the Bowen Ration Energy Balance method. Soil water content was monitored by TDR sensors. The Penman-Monteith model performance (ETPM) was evaluated using hourly and daily evapotranspiration values that were obtained from the energy balance – Bowen ratio (ETB). On an hourly basis, the overall standard estimate error (SEE) was 0.02 mm h‑1 and the d index (Id) was 0.99; while on a daily basis, the SEE was 0.45 mm d-1 and the Id, 0.89. Thus, the Penman-Monteith model may be used to estimate daily and hourly cowpea crop ET accurately.KEYWORDS: Bowen ratio, latent heat, soil water content, irrigation, TDR