Nursing home-sensitive conditions: analysis of routine health insurance data and modified Delphi analysis of potentially avoidable hospitalizations

Background: Hospitalizations of nursing home residents are associated with various health risks. Previous research indicates that, to some extent, hospitalizations of this vulnerable population may be inappropriate and even avoidable. This study aimed to develop a consensus list of hospital discharge diagnoses considered to be nursing home-sensitive, i.e., avoidable. Methods: The study combined analyses of routine data from six statutory health insurance companies in Germany and a two-stage Delphi panel, enhanced by expert workshop discussions, to identify and corroborate relevant diagnoses. Experts from four different disciplines estimated the proportion of hospitalizations that could potentially have been prevented under optimal conditions. Results: We analyzed frequencies and costs of data for hospital admissions from 242,236 nursing home residents provided by statutory health insurance companies. We identified 117 hospital discharge diagnoses, which had a frequency of at least 0.1%. We recruited experts (primary care physicians, hospital specialists, nursing home professionals and researchers) to estimate the proportion of potentially avoidable hospitalizations for the 117 diagnoses deemed avoidable in two Delphi rounds (n=107 in Delphi Round 1 and n=96 in Delphi Round 2, effective response rate=91%). A total of 35 diagnoses with high and consistent estimates of the proportion of potentially avoidable hospitalizations were identified as nursing home-sensitive. In an expert workshop (n=16), a further 25 diagnoses were discussed that had not reached the criteria, of which another 23 were consented to be nursing home-sensitive conditions. Extrapolating the frequency and mean costs of these 58 diagnoses to the national German context yielded total potentially avoidable care costs of €768,304,547, associated with 219,955 nursing home-sensitive hospital admissions. Conclusion: A total of 58 nursing home-relevant diagnoses (ICD-10-GM three-digit level) were classified as nursing home-sensitive using an adapted Delphi procedure. Interventions should be developed to avoid hospital admission from nursing homes for these diagnoses.

Processed Electroencephalogram-Based Monitoring to Guide Sedation in Critically Ill Patients: A Systematic Review and International Expert Panel-Based Consensus Recommendations

BackgroundThe literature related to the use of processed EEG (pEEG) for depth of sedation (DOS) monitoring is increasing, however it is unclear how to use this type of monitoring for critical care patients within the intensive care unit (ICU).MethodsWe performed a systematic review of the literature according to the Grade of Recommendation assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. The modified Delphi method was utilised by a team of experts to produce statements and recommendations derived from study questions. Three separate online rounds discussing 89 statements categorized into four domains were formulated. The panelists rated the appropriateness of each statement and were able to suggest modifications or addition of statements. An analysis of anonymised ratings of the statements by part of the panel followed each Delphi round and previously validated criteria were used to define appropriateness and consensus.ResultsLevel of evidence regarding the four domains was very low. Fourteen panelists participated in the Delphi rounds and consensus was reached for 28 out of 89 statements, from which the reccomendations were created. The main findings were that DOS monitoring should be performed in critically ill patients whenever clinical evaluation is not possible, it should be performed by continuous pEEG techniques and the resulting data depicted with graphical tools to facilitate detection of excessive sedation, a potential cause of burst-suppression, and finally, structured training is suggested to achieve a basic pEEG competency.ConclusionsAlthough evidence on using DOS monitors in ICU is scarce and further research is required in order to better define the benefits of using pEEG, the results of this consensus highlight the general agreement that critically-ill patients would benefit from this type of neuromonitoring.

The development of emergency medical services benefit score: a European Delphi study

Background The helicopter emergency services (HEMS) Benefit Score (HBS) is a nine-level scoring system developed to evaluate the benefits of HEMS missions. The HBS has been in clinical use for two decades in its original form. Advances in prehospital care, however, have produced demand for a revision of the HBS. Therefore, we developed the emergency medical services (EMS) Benefit Score (EBS) based on the former HBS. As reflected by its name, the aim of the EBS is to measure the benefits produced by the whole EMS systems to patients. Methods This is a four-round, web-based, international Delphi consensus study with a consensus definition made by experts from seven countries. Participants reviewed items of the revised HBS on a 5-point Likert scale. A content validity index (CVI) was calculated, and agreement was defined as a 70% CVI. Study included experts from seven European countries. Of these, 18 were prehospital expert panellists and 11 were in-hospital commentary board members. Results The first Delphi round resulted in 1248 intervention examples divided into ten diagnostic categories. After removing overlapping examples, 413 interventions were included in the second Delphi round, which resulted in 38 examples divided into HBS categories 3–8. In the third Delphi round, these resulted in 37 prehospital interventions, examples of which were given revised version of the score. In the fourth and final Delphi round, the expert panel was given an opportunity to accept or comment on the revised scoring system. Conclusions The former HBS was revised by a Delphi methodology and EBS developed to represent its structural purpose better. The EBS includes 37 exemplar prehospital interventions to guide its clinical use. Trial registration The study permission was requested and granted by Turku University Hospital (decision number TP2/010/18).

Need-based care of multi-morbid patients – supporting general practitioners with algorithm-generated recommendations of healthcare services (telemedicine-project ATMoSPHÄRE)

Background The patient-oriented and need-based care of multi-morbid patients with healthcare services and assistive products can be a highly complex task for the general practitioners (GPs). An algorithm-based digital recommendation system (DRS) for healthcare services was developed within the context of the telemedicine research project ATMoSPHÄRE. The plausibility of the DRS was tested and the results used to examine if, and to what degree, the DRS provides useful assistance to GPs. Methods The plausibility of the recommendations of the DRS were tested with the Delphi procedure (n = 8) and Interviews (n = 4) in collaboration with the GPs. They proposed services and assistive products they considered appropriate for two multi-morbid patients. Furthermore, GPs had to report whether, and to what degree they deemed the algorithm-generated recommendations appropriate. Significant quantitative differences between the GPs’, and the algorithm-generated, recommendations were evaluated with paired-samples-Wilcoxon-test. Results The first Delphi round revealed a high variability regarding the amount and character of services recommended by the physicians (1 to 10 recommendations, mean = 5.6, sd = 2.8). These professional recommendations converged after consideration of the algorithm-generated recommendations. The number of algorithm-generated recommendations which were judged as appropriate ranged between 7 and 17 of a total of 20 (mean = 11.9, sd = 2.5). The interviews revealed that the additional algorithm-generated recommendations which were judged appropriate contained mainly social care services. Conlusion The DRS provides GPs with additional appropriate recommendations for the need-based care of patients, which may not have been previously considered. It can therefore be assessed as a helpful complement in the primary care of multi-morbid patients.

A Computer-Based Interactive Narrative and a Serious Game for Children With Asthma: Development and Content Validity Analysis

Background Nonadherence to medications, failure to prevent exposure to asthma triggers, lack of knowledge about using medications, and fixed mindsets contribute to poor asthma control in children. Digital learning could provide a new strategy for improving health-related outcomes in children with asthma. Objective The aim of this study is to develop and design a digital educational program, titled Module of Inhaler and Asthma Triggers for Children (MIRACLE), for Indonesian children with asthma. The program comprises an interactive narrative and a serious game. It was proposed to increase the understanding of asthma self-management, instruct on proper inhaler techniques, improve asthma control, and promote a growth mindset for children with asthma. Methods Two phases of research were conducted to develop the program. In the first phase, a literature search and two rounds of the Delphi technique were conducted to obtain agreement from an expert panel regarding elements of asthma self-management and the design of interactive narratives and a serious game. The expert panel item statements were evaluated using the content validity index (CVI). In the second phase, the SERES framework, Norma Engaging Multimedia Design, and Psychological Theory of Growth Mindset were applied to create a storyline, learn objectives, and game challenges. Results In the first phase, 40 experts were invited to participate in Delphi round 1. Forty responses were collected to generate 38 item statements that consisted of part 1, elements of asthma self-management (25 items), and part 2, design of an interactive narrative and a serious game (13 items); 38 experts were involved in Delphi round 2. In total, 24 statements in part 1 and 13 items in part 2 had item-CVI values >0.80. The average CVI was 0.9, which was considered acceptable. Four narrative plots and five game sessions were developed during the second phase. Challenges with the scenario, scoring, and feedback on asthma difficulties were designed to promote a growth mindset for learners. Conclusions We developed a culture-specific, computer-based asthma program containing an interactive narrative and a serious game to deliver asthma self-management and promote a growth mindset among Indonesian children.

Computed Tomography Structured Reporting in the Staging of Lymphoma: A Delphi Consensus Proposal

Structured reporting (SR) in radiology is becoming increasingly necessary and has been recognized recently by major scientific societies. This study aims to build structured CT-based reports for lymphoma patients during the staging phase to improve communication between radiologists, members of multidisciplinary teams, and patients. A panel of expert radiologists, members of the Italian Society of Medical and Interventional Radiology (SIRM), was established. A modified Delphi process was used to develop the SR and to assess a level of agreement for all report sections. The Cronbach’s alpha (Cα) correlation coefficient was used to assess internal consistency for each section and to measure quality analysis according to the average inter-item correlation. The final SR version was divided into four sections: (a) Patient Clinical Data, (b) Clinical Evaluation, (c) Imaging Protocol, and (d) Report, including n = 13 items in the “Patient Clinical Data” section, n = 8 items in the “Clinical Evaluation” section, n = 9 items in the “Imaging Protocol” section, and n = 32 items in the “Report” section. Overall, 62 items were included in the final version of the SR. A dedicated section of significant images was added as part of the report. In the first Delphi round, all sections received more than a good rating (≥3). The overall mean score of the experts and the sum of score for structured report were 4.4 (range 1–5) and 1524 (mean value of 101.6 and standard deviation of 11.8). The Cα correlation coefficient was 0.89 in the first round. In the second Delphi round, all sections received more than an excellent rating (≥4). The overall mean score of the experts and the sum of scores for structured report were 4.9 (range 3–5) and 1694 (mean value of 112.9 and standard deviation of 4.0). The Cα correlation coefficient was 0.87 in this round. The highest overall means value, highest sum of scores of the panelists, and smallest standard deviation values of the evaluations in this round reflect the increase of the internal consistency and agreement among experts in the second round compared to first round. The accurate statement of imaging data given to referring physicians is critical for patient care; the information contained affects both the decision-making process and the subsequent treatment. The radiology report is the most important source of clinical imaging information. It conveys critical information about the patient’s health and the radiologist’s interpretation of medical findings. It also communicates information to the referring physicians and records this information for future clinical and research use. The present SR was generated based on a multi-round consensus-building Delphi exercise and uses standardized terminology and structures, in order to adhere to diagnostic/therapeutic recommendations and facilitate enrolment in clinical trials, to reduce any ambiguity that may arise from non-conventional language, and to enable better communication between radiologists and clinicians.

1263Exploring postgraduate epidemiology competencies in the Australian context

Background In response to emerging challenges faced by epidemiologists, it is timely to ensure that university teaching aligns with the competencies required in professional practice. Therefore, the field requires a regular evaluation of the educational competencies being covered. The aim of this research was to seek consensus from both students and experts on postgraduate epidemiology competencies relevant to the Australian context. Methods A two-round online survey using a modified Delphi method was used to establish expert consensus on postgraduate epidemiology competencies. Focus groups were also conducted with recent graduates who completed a postgraduate epidemiology course to assess their viewpoints on learning experiences and employability. Results In total, 41 experts participated in the first Delphi round. A total of 19/40 factors (general epidemiologic methods/concepts) reached consensus in the first round for importance (high/most important by > 70% of participants). Seventeen factors also reached consensus in terms of feasibility (usually/always/very feasible by > 70% of participants). Further results from the second Delphi round focusing on advanced analysis skills, applied fields and professional/transferrable skills will be available for presentation at the Conference. One main theme emerging from the graduate focus groups was the substantial value gained in undertaking a dissertation, acknowledging its benefit for applying research skills and for networking opportunities. Conclusions Competencies for postgraduate epidemiology students require periodic review to safeguard a workforce that can meet emerging challenges. Key messages To ensure that high quality epidemiological research and practice continues we need consensus on the set of essential skills required of graduating students.

Developing a core outcome set for periodontal trials

Background There is no agreement which outcomes should be measured when investigating interventions for periodontal diseases. It is difficult to compare or combine studies with different outcomes; resulting in research wastage and uncertainty for patients and healthcare professionals. Objective Develop a core outcome set (COS) relevant to key stakeholders for use in effectiveness trials investigating prevention and management of periodontal diseases. Methods Mixed method study involving literature review; online Delphi Study; and face-to-face consensus meeting. Participants Key stakeholders: patients, dentists, hygienist/therapists, periodontists, researchers. Results The literature review identified 37 unique outcomes. Delphi round 1: 20 patients and 51 dental professional and researchers prioritised 25 and suggested an additional 11 outcomes. Delphi round 2: from the resulting 36 outcomes, 13 patients and 39 dental professionals and researchers prioritised 22 outcomes. A face-to-face consensus meeting was hosted in Dundee, Scotland by an independent chair. Eight patients and six dental professional and researchers participated. The final COS contains: Probing depths, Quality of life, Quantified levels of gingivitis, Quantified levels of plaque, Tooth loss. Conclusions Implementation of this COS will ensure the results of future effectiveness trials for periodontal diseases are more relevant to patients and dental professionals, reducing research wastage. This could reduce uncertainty for patients and dental professionals by ensuring the evidence used to inform their choices is meaningful to them. It could also strengthen the quality and certainty of the evidence about the relative effectiveness of interventions. Registration COMET Database: http://www.comet-initiative.org/studies/details/265?result=true

Developing and evaluating strategies to increase the material utilisation rate of hardwoods: a hybrid policy Delphi-SWOT analysis

The indigenous hardwoods in German forests have a substantial ability to store carbon, and forestry reconstruction measures are anticipated to result in an increase in availability of hardwood on the wood market. Despite this, its material usage is declining with over two thirds of the harvested quantity being used for energy production. This study aims to identify policy measures and promising strategies for increasing hardwood utilisation using a combined policy Delphi-SWOT approach with literature review undertaken to identify the barriers and driving factors for an increase in its material use. The results were then ranked by a panel of experts and used as basis for the SWOT analysis, which was then applied to an extended SWOT approach. The resulting strategies were then discussed by the panel and ranked further in the 2nd and 3rd Delphi round. After three Delphi rounds, three strategies and associated policy recommendations were ranked as most effective by the experts: innovative hardwood products including manufacturing processes, research transfer and lobbying. This study provides both strategic analyses and effective strategies to stimulate the production of hardwood-based products and ends with a concise description of these strategies and policy recommendations, which are benchmarked against current literature and best practise examples.

Interdisciplinary consensus statements on imaging of scapholunate joint instability

Objectives The purpose of this agreement was to establish evidence-based consensus statements on imaging of scapholunate joint (SLJ) instability by an expert group using the Delphi technique. Methods Nineteen hand surgeons developed a preliminary list of questions on SLJ instability. Radiologists created statements based on the literature and the authors’ clinical experience. Questions and statements were revised during three iterative Delphi rounds. Delphi panellists consisted of twenty-seven musculoskeletal radiologists. The panellists scored their degree of agreement to each statement on an eleven-item numeric scale. Scores of ‘0’, ‘5’ and ‘10’ reflected complete disagreement, indeterminate agreement and complete agreement, respectively. Group consensus was defined as a score of ‘8’ or higher for 80% or more of the panellists. Results Ten of fifteen statements achieved group consensus in the second Delphi round. The remaining five statements achieved group consensus in the third Delphi round. It was agreed that dorsopalmar and lateral radiographs should be acquired as routine imaging work-up in patients with suspected SLJ instability. Radiographic stress views and dynamic fluoroscopy allow accurate diagnosis of dynamic SLJ instability. MR arthrography and CT arthrography are accurate for detecting scapholunate interosseous ligament tears and articular cartilage defects. Ultrasonography and MRI can delineate most extrinsic carpal ligaments, although validated scientific evidence on accurate differentiation between partially or completely torn or incompetent ligaments is not available. Conclusions Delphi-based agreements suggest that standardized radiographs, radiographic stress views, dynamic fluoroscopy, MR arthrography and CT arthrography are the most useful and accurate imaging techniques for the work-up of SLJ instability. Key Points • Dorsopalmar and lateral wrist radiographs remain the basic imaging modality for routine imaging work-up in patients with suspected scapholunate joint instability. • Radiographic stress views and dynamic fluoroscopy of the wrist allow accurate diagnosis of dynamic scapholunate joint instability. • Wrist MR arthrography and CT arthrography are accurate for determination of scapholunate interosseous ligament tears and cartilage defects.