Comprehensive epidemiological analysis of the risk of malignant neoplasms: experience of the implementation

Introduction. The high level of morbidity and mortality from malignant neoplasms among the population is one of the pressing health problems. The aim of the study is to assess cancer risk according to the array of epidemiological indicators and identify risk zones in the Irkutsk region. Materials and methods. The work was carried out according to the official statistical reporting data. The analysis included 37 locations of malignant neoplasms under ICD-X. Data analysis was carried out in three stages using cluster analysis methods and relative risk assessment. Results. Two priority groups of risk areas have been identified. The highest levels of incidence, prevalence, and mortality are noted in cluster 1. Cluster 1 includes industrial cities with accumulated technogenic impact. 2 cluster includes mainly northern territories, where the highest level and growth of mortality, morbidity, morbidity and neglect are noted. Rural areas in the central part of the Irkutsk region, where the bulk of the Buryat population traditionally lives, are characterised by relatively low morbidity and mortality rates from malignant neoplasms. This feature determines the need for targeted research to identify protective genetic and environmental factors. Conclusion. Tested in this work, the three-stage approach to analysing epidemiological indicators of oncological pathology can be used to identify critical problems in other territories.

Relative Risk Assessment of Ecological Areas with the Highest Potential Impact of Underwater Released Exhaust CO2 from Innovative Ships

Applying underwater released exhaust gas as air lubrication along the ship hull to reduce the energy consumption is under development. However, this direct emission to the water could pose a risk to the local marine environment, especially in shipping-dense areas. Specifically, CO2, a dominant component in the exhaust gas, has the potency to enhance algal blooms and cause acidification. This study provides the first relative risk assessment of ships with underwater release exhaust gas systems on a global scale, taking into account local water conditions and shipping intensity. Risk was characterized for 262 marine ecoregions by plotting the expected CO2 emission from ships to water against the estimated vulnerability to acidification and algal blooms. The vulnerability of each ecoregion was assessed based on background dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) level, chlorophyll-a concentrations and total alkalinity. The results reveal that areas with relatively high vulnerability are mainly located above 30N latitude. The Yellow Sea, Southern China Sea, and North Sea come out as relatively high risk areas. Looking in more detail to European high-risk ecoregions, the highest risk levels are found in areas with dense shipping lanes and maritime chokepoints, e.g. the Strait of Dover and the Strait of Gibraltar. This was the first attempt to make such a risk assessment and the outcome is only indicative. In a next phase additional parameters, such as water currents and biological composition of the ecosystem should be included.

The Spatial Analysis of the Malicious Uniform Resource Locators (URLs): 2016 Dataset Case Study

In this study, we aimed to identify spatial clusters of countries with high rates of cyber attacks directed at other countries. The cyber attack dataset was obtained from Canadian Institute for Cybersecurity, with over 110,000 Uniform Resource Locators (URLs), which were classified into one of 5 categories: benign, phishing, malware, spam, or defacement. The disease surveillance software SaTScanTM was used to perform a spatial analysis of the country of origin for each cyber attack. It allowed the identification of spatial and space-time clusters of locations with unusually high counts or rates of cyber attacks. Number of internet users per country obtained from the 2016 CIA World Factbook was used as the population baseline for computing rates and Poisson analysis in SaTScanTM. The clusters were tested for significance with a Monte Carlo study within SaTScanTM, where any cluster with p < 0.05 was designated as a significant cyber attack cluster. Results using the rate of the different types of malicious URL cyber attacks are presented in this paper. This novel approach of studying cyber attacks from a spatial perspective provides an invaluable relative risk assessment for each type of cyber attack that originated from a particular country.

Risk of Overdose-Related Death for People with A History of Incarceration

IntroductionEpidemiologic studies have shown that people released from correctional facilities are at substantially increased risk of overdose-related death compared with the general population. However, the reported effect estimates are substantially heterogeneous, and the previous studies have important limitations in relative risk assessment for overdose-related death. Objectives and ApproachBritish Columbia, Canada, has experienced an unprecedented epidemic of drug overdose, this study aimed to investigate how the overdose epidemic has affected formerly incarcerated persons. A 20% random sample of residents aged 18 years or older in British Columbia was used to conduct this cohort study. During the 5-year exposure period (January 2010 to December 2014), persons with an incarceration history were identified using provincial incarceration records. During the 3-year follow-up period (January 2015 to December 2017), overdose-related deaths were identified using linked administrative health data. Risk of overdose-related death was compared between persons who did and did not have an incarceration history using a Cox regression model. ResultsOf 765,690 persons in the cohort, 5,743 had an incarceration history during the exposure period, and 634 died from drug overdose during the follow-up period. The mortality rate was 832 and 22 per 100,000 person-years for persons who did and did not have an incarceration history, respectively. Compared with persons without an incarceration history, and adjusting for individual and neighbourhood characteristics, persons who had an incarceration history were 3.67 times (95% confidence interval 2.93 - 4.59) more likely to die from drug overdose. This association was stronger for females, persons who did not have substance use disorder, and persons who were not dispensed opioids for pain or benzodiazepines. Conclusion/ImplicationsPrevious incarceration is strongly associated with risk of overdose-related death. Specific interventions are needed to better prevent drug overdose for people released from incarceration.

Nicotine products relative risk assessment: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Nicotine products have been the subject of considerable innovation over the past few decades. While the health risks of combustible cigarettes and most tobacco-based products are well characterized, there is less clarity regarding newer nicotine products, and how they compare with the traditional forms. Methods: In this study, we have developed a relative risk hierarchy (RRH) of 13 nicotine products based on systematic review of the scientific literature and analysis of the best available evidence. In total, 3980 publications were identified and screened, with 320 studies being carried through to the final analysis. The health risk data for each product was extracted and the level assessed. The products were analyzed in terms of their toxin emissions and epidemiological data, which were combined on an arbitrary scale from 0 to 100 (low to high risk) to derive a combined risk score for each nicotine product. Results: Combustible tobacco products dominate the top of the RRH, with combined risk scores ranging from 40 to 100. The most frequently consumed products generally score highest. Dipping and chewing tobacco place considerably lower on the hierarchy than the combustible products with scores of 10 to 15, but significantly above heat-not-burn devices and snus, which score between 3 and 4. The lowest risk products have scores of less than 0.25 and include electronic cigarettes, non-tobacco pouches and nicotine replacement therapy. Conclusions: The RRH provides a framework for the assessment of relative risk across all categories of nicotine products based on the best available evidence regarding their toxin emissions and the observed risk of disease development in product users. As nicotine products continue to evolve, and more data comes to light, the analyses can be updated to represent the best available scientific evidence.

Nicotine Products Relative Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BackgroundNicotine products have been the subject of considerable innovation over the past few decades. While the health risks of combustible cigarettes and most tobacco-based products are well characterized, there is less clarity regarding newer nicotine products, and how they compare with the traditional forms. MethodsIn this study, we have developed a relative risk hierarchy (RRH) of 13 nicotine products based on systematic review of the scientific literature and analysis of the best available evidence. In total, 3980 publications were identified and screened, with 320 studies being carried through to the final analysis. The health risk data for each product was extracted and the level assessed. The products were analyzed in terms of their toxin emissions and epidemiological data, which were combined on an arbitrary scale from 0 to 100 (low to high risk) to derive a combined risk score for each nicotine product. ResultsCombustible tobacco products dominate the top of the RRH, with combined risk scores ranging from 40 to 100. The most frequently consumed products generally score highest. Dipping and chewing tobacco place considerably lower on the hierarchy than the combustible products with scores of 10 to 15, but significantly above heat-not-burn devices and snus, which score between 3 and 4. The lowest risk products have scores of less than 0.25 and include electronic cigarettes, non-tobacco pouches and nicotine replacement therapy. ConclusionsThe RRH provides a framework for the assessment of relative risk across all categories of nicotine products based on the best available evidence regarding their toxin emissions and the observed risk of disease development in product users. As nicotine products continue to evolve, and more data comes to light, the analyses can be updated to represent the best available scientific evidence.

Relative Risk Assessment of Intrauterine Infection of the Fetus During Cytomegalovirus Infection in Early Pregnancy

Background. Intrauterine fetal infection (IUI), the common cause of which is the cytomegalovirus (CMV), occupies one of the first places in the structure of perinatal morbidity and mortality. There are no data on the relative risk assessment of IUI at the exacerbation of CMV infection and its delitescent course in first trimester of pregnancy in the literature.Aim: to calculate the relative risks of fetal IUI in pregnant women with exacerbation of CMV infection in the first trimester of pregnancy.Methods. A retrospective review of the labor and delivery medical records and prenatal records of 104 CMV-seropositive women was carried out. Fifty of these women had an exacerbation of CMV infection in the first trimester of pregnancy – main group and 54 of them were with delitescent course of the disease (comparison group).Results. A comparative analysis of ultrasound and morphological markers of IUI with risk assessment depending on the course of CMV infection in the first trimester of pregnancy has been carried out. A high risk of placental structure abnormalities, as well as amniotic fluid and fetal membranes, fetal and placental blood flow pathology, onset of choroid plexus cyst and fetal growth restriction was found, with a statistically significant difference in the group of pregnant women with exacerbation of CMV infection in the first trimester of pregnancy.Conclusion. The findings suggest that the exacerbation of CMV infection in early pregnancy is a risk factor for IUI.

SLOPE FAILURE RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING USING TOPOGRAPHIC DATA AND NUMERICAL CALCULATION OF SOIL CONSERVATION BY TREE ROOT SYSTEMS

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> In Japan, the frequency of sudden heavy rain events has recently increased, causing slope failures that in turn increase rates of damage to transit infrastructure such as railways and roads. To reduce this damage, there is a need to identify locations near railroad tracks that are at risk of slope failure. Thus, an assessment that predicts whether or not damage will occur due to external forces such as heavy rains is required, rather than a simple relative risk assessment based on identifying locations similar to those damaged in previous events. In this study, we developed a method for time series stability assessment of slopes during heavy rains using digital topographic data. This method uses topographic data to estimate topsoil thickness, which contributes to stability, and soil strength, which is affected by the root systems of vegetation on slopes. Using differences in these parameters between tree species and forest type, we were able to calculate slope stability and simulate slope failure during rainfall. The simulations allowed us to evaluate locations along routes where previous failures occurred, and to identify at-risk locations that have not yet experienced slope failure. This approach will improve forest management based on risk assessments for intensifying heavy rains.</p>