The Relevance of Language as a Predictor of the Will for Independence in Catalonia in 1996 and 2020

The Catalan secessionist parties, if added together, have won all the elections to the Parliament of Catalonia from 2010 to 2021. Their voters have been increasingly mobilized since the start of the controversial reform process of the Statute of Autonomy (2004–2010). The aim of this article is twofold. First, it intends to test whether language is the strongest predictor in preferring independence in two separate and distinct moments, 1996 and 2020. And second, to assess whether its strength has changed—and how—between both years. Only the most exogenous variables to the dependent variable are used in each of two logistic regressions to avoid problems of endogeneity: sex, age, size of town of residence, place of birth of the individual and of their parents, first language (L1), and educational level. Among them, L1 was—and still is—the most powerful predictor, although it is not entirely determinative. The secessionist movement not only gathers a plurality of Catalan native speakers, but it receives a not insignificant level of support among those who have Spanish as their L1. Conversely, the unionist group, despite being composed primarily by people who have Spanish as their L1 and have their family origins outside Catalonia, has a native Catalan-speaking minority inside. This imperfect division, which is based on ethnolinguistic alignments—and whose relevance cannot be neglected—alleviates the likelihood of an ethnic-based conflict.

‘Quebec Sovereignty and Indigenous Nationhoods: Critiquing The Quebec Secessionist Movement from “an Indigenous” Lens’

The purpose of this article is to assess and critique the Quebec secessionist movement from an Indigenous lens in order to include other contexts and views on the aforementioned topic that is traditionally left to the peripheries of the Quebec secessionist movement. In order to add an Indigenous lens to the discussion of Quebec’s secessionist movement, this paper will first review the concepts of sovereignty and self-determination from both ‘western-centric’ and Indigenous views. Furthermore, this article will then review the historical formation of French and English settlers and power in what Indigenous peoples call Turtle Island, from the 1500s until 1960. Lastly, with the many political, economic, and societal changes from the 1960s and on, this paper will critique the competing views of Quebec as a sovereign entity to that of Indigenous nationhoods. This article concludes that for Quebec to truly reflect a decolonized state, the inclusion of Indigenous nations as equal partners with their own sovereignty and self-determination recognized must also occur.

Joint international military exercises of NATO countries... within the implementation of programs supporting peace and security in Ukraine

This article considers the issue of annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea peninsular territory by the RussianFederation and further deployment of the secessionist movement in the southeastern regions of Ukraine thatsubsequently developed into a military conflict in the east of Ukraine. The research analysed the directionsand character of the cooperation between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Alliance military units. Thelevel of practical interaction within the framework of existing NATO-Ukraine bilateral partnership programs,including military trainings, was also identified. The chronology of transformation of organizational formsof Ukrainian army’s presence in the east of Ukraine from the Anti-Terrorist Operation to the Joint ForcesOperation and the role of NATO in this process were also considered. The elements of the North AtlanticAlliance’s influence on the reform of the Ukrainian army were identified directly following the requirementsand standards defined by the Organization. The role of NATO’s Liaison Office, located in Kyiv, Ukraine, andthe Center for Security and Information Processing was outlined. Particular attention was paid to the issueof counteracting cybercrimes and protecting the state’s information systems from external influences. Inparticular, reference was made to the protection of the state’s critical infrastructure elements (nuclear powerplants, strategic state-owned enterprises, etc.), including electronic registers of citizens e-lists and the state’sbanking system databases. The activities of the NATO Cybercrime Operations Centers and the establishmentof similar institutions in Ukraine were also researched. The maritime component of cooperation betweenUkraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was analysed, taking into account the aggravation ofthe situation in Azov-Black Sea region during 2018, associated with the passage of Ukrainian warships of theAzov Fleet of the Naval Forces of Ukraine through the Kerch Strait which is under the control of the occupyingtroops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. As a result, so-called border conflicts were causedleading to the capture of Ukrainian warships and sailors by Russians in November 2018.

Catalonia

This chapter focuses on Catalonia, an exemplar of the democratized movement. Using a substantial number of interviews, the chapter discusses the tactics that the Catalan secessionists have used, and highlights the possibilities and limitations of a fully institutionalized movement. It argues that the Catalan secessionist movement is truly a public debate and much more likely in advanced democracies. Up close it can appear quite different from the efforts in West Papua, Bougainville, and Northern Cyprus, and yet they are playing the same strategic game insofar as they all need to work through the home state and enlist the international community. By this context, the chapter investigates how the democratized movement utilized the political apparatus of the state to achieve its ends — rather than resort to violence — and appeal to norms of democratic legitimacy. Ultimately, the chapter discusses the Catalan secessionist leadership's attempt to get external governments to apply pressure on Madrid to negotiate.

West Papua

This chapter focuses on the long running independence effort in West Papua, an example of the weak combative type of secession movement. It demonstrates what can happen to secessionism in weakly institutionalized settings. The chapter discusses the two dominant normative appeals: the primary one stresses human rights and the second common appeal focuses on decolonization. It also analyses how key features related to electoral politics and freedom of speech prevent the secessionist movement from attaining the level of political voice that one normally finds in a democratized setting. West Papua is integrated with the larger state and yet cannot engage in electoral capture. Unlike Bougainville, it faces a powerful military opponent whom it cannot dislodge from the territory nor fight to a standstill. By this context, the chapter documents the tactics of the secessionists in West Papua that evolved in relation to their inability to challenge the state militarily.

A Theory of Secessionist Strategy and Tactical Variation

This chapter advances the theory of secessionist strategy and tactical variation, arguing that the strategy and tactics of secession are shaped by the international recognition regime and further contextualized by the setting in which any given secessionist movement operates. The chapter explains how secessionist movements need to compel and persuade their home state to give consent and/or bring the international community into the contest. The chapter uses information drawn from interviews to show that secessionists are well informed about the dynamics of secession. By explaining the logics of compellence and normative appeal, the chapter explicates the different tactics within these two logics. It asserts that the choice of tactics depends on local conditions that cluster around six kinds of movements (democratized, indigenous legal, weak combative, strong combative, decolonial, and de facto). Ultimately, the chapter discusses a prominent hybrid case, Iraqi Kurdistan, and examines the counter-strategy of states.

EAST TIMOR: WHEN STATE REPRESSION MAKES SECESSION EASIER (1975-2002)

Why does state violence sometimes fail to crush a secessionist movement and instead facilitate international support for the separatist cause? Based on the literature on the international recognition of secessionist entities and on the impact of state repression against social movements, this paper develops an argument according to which the timing of certain repressive events make them more likely to generate an international backlash and thus facilitate external support for secessionists. To backfire internationally, state violence must occur at the right time—that is, when the secessionists have gained sufficient media attention, put in place an appropriate organizational structure, and have abandoned violent tactics for a nonviolent campaign. Using the secession process of East Timor as a case study, this paper shows how the international moral outrage that followed the Dili massacre (1991),combined with a changing geopolitical context, have boosted the foreign support of the secessionist movement in East Timor and allowed it to obtain important concessions from Jakarta. Keywords: State repression, Secession, East Timor, Political violence, International Relations

Europe’s Secessionist Movements and Covid-19

For three European states in particular, the Covid-19 pandemic has served to catalyze pre-existing territorial disputes. While the United Kingdom, Spain, and Belgium have all had very different responses to the pandemic, in all three cases the actions of central and regional government have put existing structures of regional autonomy under strain. In Spain, the pandemic response has become intertwined with the Catalan independence debate (especially in disputes between pro-independence parties), and elsewhere in the country it has cemented co-operative relationships between moderate nationalists and the statewide left. In Belgium, the pandemic has accentuated territorial disputes and further complicated government formation. And in the UK diverging responses to the pandemic have helped boost nationalist movements in the devolved nations; particularly the cause of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and their ambitions to create an independent Scottish state. While the year has been highly significant for secessionist movements in all three states, only in the UK does a decisive shift towards state-breakup seem to have occurred. The article argues that whether or not a secessionist movement benefits from the pandemic is highly contingent on contextual factors, including the performance of state-level governments in responding to the pandemic and the relative autonomy of regional governments during the response.

Biafra: the Revival and Proliferation of Separatism

The weak cohesion of African societies, predetermined by their ethnic, linguistic and religious heterogeneity, leads to a great propensity for the spread of separatist sentiments in Africa. The overwhelming majority of existing scholarly works note the continent's tendency towards separatism and irredentism. Indeed, the number of separatist movements in Africa is constantly growing; currently there are more of them than there were in the first postcolonial decades, although only a few of them have been “successful”. The present paper analyzes the reasons for the revival of a secessionist movement in southeastern Nigeria several decades after the end of the 1967-1970 Biafran War. The authors consider activities of separatist organizations that emerged in Biafra in the 2000s-2010s, the reaction of the government of Muhammadu Buhari, and factors hindering the establishment of a new “sovereign state” in the region. The relevance of the present paper is determined both by the growing threat of separatism in Africa and by the lack of research on the current situation in Biafra in Russian-language literature. The authors employ theoretical-analytical and systemic-historical methods to analyze the threat of separatism in Nigeria and conclude that the creation of a new “Republic of Biafra” will remain a utopian project for at least the next decade, yet separatist sentiments will spread and hinder the achievement of internal political stability in the country, which is already experiencing conflicts due to the activities of Boko Haram, tensions between farmers and pastoralists, and militancy in the Niger Delta.