The United States and the Soviet Union

Otto von Bismarck famously said that “God has special providence for fools, drunks, and the United States of America.” Divine providence may not have hurt, but it was America’s domestic political institutions that transformed a smattering of British colonies in North America into, first, an independent nation and, then, a global superpower with a network of allies and partners spanning six continents. The United States faced off against the Soviet Union for a half century during the Cold War. But Washington possessed the better institutions, and the stress of the competition caused Moscow’s political system to collapse altogether. In the post–Cold War period that followed, Washington deepened and expanded the Pax Americana, and spread unprecedented levels of global peace, prosperity, and freedom. For the first time since Ancient Rome, a single superpower so overawed any potential competitors that great power rivalry itself came to a temporary halt.

The Venetian Republic, the Byzantine Empire, and the Duchy of Milan

This chapter examines the rise of the Venetian Republic and its victories over autocratic rivals. The Venetian Republic was one of the most open polities of the Middle Ages, and it found itself in strategic competitions with other rival powers, including the Byzantine Empire, Genoa, and the Duchy of Milan. Like other dominant democracies before and since, Venice became a major trading, financial, and naval power and it was renowned for its shrewd diplomacy. In the end, Venice bested its rivals, even sacking the imperial city of Constantinople in AD 1204. At the peak of its power, the Venetian Empire’s territorial control spanned from northern Italy, along the Dalmatian Coast, to much of Greece and Anatolia, including Constantinople, with significant influence in the Levant, North Africa, and the Black Sea. Our friend Machiavelli admired Venice as “excellent among modern republics.”

Athens, Sparta, and Persia

This chapter considers the rise of Athens in the ancient world and its competitions against its rivals, Persia and Sparta. It argues that its democratic institutions were a key to its success. Athens was the world’s first democracy, and it rose to become the leader of the Greeks, with an empire that stretched from North Africa to Crimea. It was a major trading and naval power and forged a formidable alliance of Greek city-states to defeat the mighty Persian Empire. It then fought a legendary series of wars against its oligarchic rival for ascendancy in Greece, Sparta. In the end, Athens’s form of direct democracy and decision-making through tyranny of the majority was its undoing. But not before Athens reigned as a liberal leviathan for nearly a century and showcased an enduring model for how other open states could acquire international power and influence.

The Democratic Advantage by the Numbers

This chapter examines quantitative evidence for a link between a state’s domestic political institutions and its power in the international system. Using standard international relations datasets, it finds significant support for the democratic advantage idea. It is notable how often democracies appear at or near the top of global power rankings. And this is even more remarkable when one considers how historically rare this form of government has been. This chapter finds that, on average, democracies possess more power than autocracies. It reveals that they are more likely to find themselves among the major powers and at the very top of the global distribution of power. Finally, it also demonstrates that, when comparing democratic and autocratic competitors from a common baseline and watching their power trajectories unfold over time, the trend-lines favor democracies. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the research design for the case studies to follow.

Implications for American Leadership

This chapter reviews the central arguments of the book and its findings about a democratic advantage in international politics. It then discusses the implications for international relations theory and for U.S. foreign policy. This book advances international relations theory by providing a novel theoretical explanation that traces the origins of power in world politics to domestic political institutions. It makes a “hard power” case for democracy. The chapter then lays out a competitive strategy for the United States in this new era of great power rivalry. It urges the United States to strengthen its democratic form of governance domestically. Washington should also ensure it maintains an innovative economy, a robust financial sector, strong alliances, and a favorable military balance of power in Europe and Asia. Internationally, the chapter urges the United States to revitalize, adapt, and defend the rules-based international system. The chapter concludes with a challenge to Russia and China. If these countries wish to be true leading global powers, then they must adopt democratic forms of government.

The United States of America

This chapter examines the future of American global leadership through the lens of its domestic political institutions. It finds that the United States faces growing troubles at home. At the same time, its vibrant economy, strong alliances relationships, and its unmatched military, all reflections of the U.S. domestic political system, will continue to provide a significant source of strategic advantage for the United States over its autocratic competitors in the years to come. The international security environment is becoming more competitive, and the United States does not exercise the unchallenged primacy it enjoyed in the 1990s. We have returned to an era of great power rivalry. But, there is no doubt that the United States remains the world’s leading power.

The Russian Federation

This chapter analyzes the Russian Federation through the lens of its domestic political system. Russia may pose the greatest near-term national security threat to the United States and its allies, but it has a key vulnerability: its domestic political institutions. Its autocratic system is undermining its international effectiveness. Its economy is smaller than Italy’s. It lacks effective alliances. And its military is overly focused on domestic threats and is ill-equipped for the strategic-technological competitions of the 21st century. It is dangerous and it can disrupt the U.S.-led order. But it will not be in a position to be a true peer competitor to the United States any time soon. So long as it continues to be ruled by President Vladimir Putin, or another similar dictator, Russia will not be able to mount a serious challenge to U.S. global leadership.

The Roman Republic, Carthage, and Macedon

This chapter considers Rome’s rise from a small kingdom on the Tiber River in Central Italy to dominating the entire Mediterranean and becoming one of the most powerful geopolitical forces in world history. Following scholars as diverse as Polybius, Machiavelli, and Montesquieu, it argues that the institutions of the Roman Republic were the key to its success. After its transition to republican governance in 509 BC, Rome succeeded in defeating neighboring tribes to control the entire Italian Peninsula and setting it up for rivalry with the other great republican powerhouse of the western Mediterranean: Carthage. Rome destroyed Carthage in a series of three Punic Wars. Finally, it dispensed with several autocratic kingdoms of the Hellenic world in the eastern Mediterranean, including Macedon. In just a few short centuries, Rome found itself transformed from a small city-state into a global superpower standing astride the entire civilized world.

The Democratic Advantage in Theory

This chapter puts forth the argument that democracies enjoy built-in advantages in long-run geopolitical competitions. It begins by defining key terms, such as “democracy” and “autocracy.” Then, drawing on the writing of political philosophers, such as Herodotus, Machiavelli, and Montesquieu, and contemporary social science research, this chapter explains the unique economic, diplomatic, and military advantages that democracies bring to the international arena. These advantages include: higher long-run rates of economic growth, access to international capital, larger and more reliable alliances, and a tendency to win international wars. It then explains how these advantages grant democracies an edge in amassing wealth and power, becoming great powers, and achieving global hegemony at rates greater than their autocratic rivals.

Introduction

This chapter introduces the subject of the book and summarizes its basic argument and structure. It explains that the United States of America has been the world’s leading state for the past seven decades, but that great power rivalry has returned in recent years with Russia and China becoming more assertive on the international stage. Indeed, many believe the days of U.S. global leadership are coming to an end in the face of challenges from its leading autocratic rivals. In contrast, this chapter argues that democracies have systematic advantages in international politics and that there is good reason to believe that the American era of international preeminence will endure.