Potential Challenges and Opportunities in Iraq’s Future

The people of Mesopotamia are an ancient people who have experienced prosperity and poverty, authority and subjection, civilization and barbarism all together. The British, who won the first World War, were responsible for creating a new Iraq with many structural deficiencies. This inevitably led to structurally driven political, social and economic violence, which still entangles the people of Iraq. Arabs, Kurds, and other ethnoreligious minorities could not find a recipe that would glue all of Iraq together ever since [1]. The aspiration of Iraq’s ruler was always beyond the boundaries of the country, beyond nationalism. Over all previous centuries, it is hard to find a genuine nationalist who ruled Iraq with a sole focus on Iraqi’s wellbeing. They rather had supra-nationalist aspirations such as Arabism, Socialism, and currently Shi’ism [2]. This chapter tries to pinpoint the structural maladies of Iraq. Some have been created by external forces, inasmuch as Iraq has been the major arena for the bitter rivalry between the United States and Iran. However, this paper argues that main cause of the failing of Iraq as a state is manufactured by Iraqis themselves. This study uses an inside-out look at Iraq’s never-ending cycle of violence and distrust between the newly so-called “rivals” and the new “establishment.” It ultimately presents a set of recommendations pointing the way to alleviate the prolonged instability in the country.

Global Displacement of ISIS Activities and the Effectiveness of Police Arrests as a Means of Deterrence

U.S.-led coalition forces liberated all of the territory ISIS held in Syria and Iraq in the first quarter of 2019. Although the defeat was a significant achievement, ISIS continues its activities outside the Syria and Iraq region. Turkey matters to ISIS because the group carries out attacks and uses the country to move fighters and supplies. However, Turkey relies heavily on police crackdowns to deter terrorism. Drawing on data from the Armed Conflict Event and Location Database, the Turkish Ministry of Interior, and an online news source, the current study first analyzed trends in ISIS attacks around the world. Then, it explored the extent to which police arrests prevent ISIS from further deadly attacks in Turkey. Results from the study suggest that ISIS activities are likely to decrease in Syria and Iraq after the U.S.-led military operations but increase in other countries. Also, mass arrests were ineffective in preventing subsequent deadly attacks in Turkey. Policy implications are discussed.

Lessons Learned from ISIS Recruitment in Turkey: A Paradigm Shift in Counterterrorism Is Needed

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has been unprecedentedly effective in recruiting foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs). While Turkey has been a transit country and a major hub for ISIS’s logistical and human resources, it also has become a prolific hotbed for its recruitment. Based on face-to-face interviews and open-source reports, this paper provides an in-depth assessment of ISIS’s recruitment structure and the challenges that Turkey faces in relation to ISIS’s activities and FTFs. We conclude with a set of recommendations and a roadmap for pursuing effective and sustainable policies against ISIS. Overall, Turkey should adopt a paradigm shift on counterterrorism, transform the security and intelligence apparatus, and develop rehabilitation programs that consider the specificity of individuals’ radicalization at different levels.

Making Intelligence Relevant Again: Eight Lessons for Strengthening the Navigational Capacities of Intelligence Services in Complex Threat Environments

The perceived post-ISIS era poses several challenges to intelligence and security authorities. In this contribution to a conference workshop eight lessons for strengthening the navigation capacities of intelligence services will be suggested that can make intelligence more relevant in the future. The lessons are both of a fundamental and practical nature and range from reflections about the origins of threats to the institutionalization of ethics support and to professional practices.

Sousse Attacks: A New Perspective on Soft Target Defense and Modern-Day Terrorism Threat

The Sousse attacks embody the main characteristics of terrorism and insurgency as pursued by ISIS. They are presented here as overarching examples of the underlying themes examined in this paper. In the first section, we give an outline of the facts that occurred in Sousse, Tunisia, highlighting features that mark the importance of the events in themselves and in the broader context of terrorism studies. In the second section, we offer a qualitative analysis of the traits of modern-day terrorism threat in the post-ISIS era—in particular, a marked preference for soft targets, all-around enemification of nonconformers, loose ties with perpetrators, massive use of communication technologies and propaganda, dissemination of paramilitary and insurgency know-how, and training. In the third and final section, we discuss the lessons that can be drawn from the events of Sousse, with a specific focus on soft target defense, as relevant for future challenges emerging from the rise and fall of ISIS as a pseudo-state entity and the dissemination of its personnel, ideology, and knowledge outside the territories it once occupied. In particular, we propose a departure from the model of soft target protection to one of defense.

Between Hospitality and Hostility: Public Attitudes and State Policies Toward Syrian Refugees in Turkey

This article provides an overview of the public attitudes and state policies toward Syrian refugees in Turkey between 2011 and 2020. Turkey’s policies toward refugees and the Syrian conflict have gradually changed over the course of the last nine years (2011–2020). Turkey’s legal approach to Syrian refugees has transformed from nonrecognition to recognition and from recognition to integration. Likewise, its military strategy has grown from one of limited engagement into one of active engagement in the face of ISIS attacks and YPG’s consolidation of power in northern Syria. Contrary to the generous policies adopted toward Syrian refugees during the early years of the Syrian civil war, a nativist turn and the weaponization of refugees against the European Union came to characterize the country’s approach in recent years as the country became more involved militarily in the Syrian conflict.

Before and During Iraq: Was Insurgent Lethality Impacted by the Invasion of Iraq?

Over the last 15 years, the literature on the impact of both the Iraq war and the September 11 terror attacks on the behavior of states and terrorist organizations has grown immensely. Despite this attention, there has been little research on how the invasion of Iraq impacted violent non-state actors (VNSAs), and particularly insurgent organizations killing of civilians and security personnel. Differentiating between the killing of police/military personnel and civilians is of key theoretical and policy importance, particularly if there are differences between the two in terms of insurgent behavior before and during the Iraq war. In this paper, we use the Big Allied and Dangerous Insurgency (BAADI) dataset to examine what factors impact the killing of police/military personnel and civilians by insurgent organizations between 1998 and 2012. We argue that before the invasion of Iraq, social and political factors influenced organizational lethality. During the Iraq war, however, we argue that this relationship changed because the United States and the West changed their policies and invested enormously in global resources to fighting non-state actors. Given this, the organizational factor that will determine an organization’s lethality would simply be the organization’s capability—captured most effectively by its size. Our analysis provides support for this argument.

The Afghan Peace Talks: Transforming Experience and Using Knowledge to Confront Future Crises—What Does the Afghanistan Experience Tell Us About the Future of Countering Violent Extremism?

On September 12, 2020, the Afghan peace talks begin between the Taliban and the Afghan government in Doha-Qatar to end the 19 years of war. This significant diplomatic effort was only possible when in February 29, 2020, the United States and the Taliban reached an “historic agreement” in the presence of the international community in Doha-Qatar committing all U.S. troops to lave Afghanistan in 14 months in return the Taliban will cut ties with al-Qaida and make peace. [1, p. 1.]It was set to pave the way for intra-Afghan dialogues—a much needed move toward peace. Afghanistan has been entrenched in a 40-year civil war that has consequently created the conditions for the country to be considered a base for terrorist operations, ravaged by war and conflict for centuries by empires and militia groups in the name of power, religion and ideologies. It has seen foreign invasions, civil wars and has been turned into a theatre of conflict where the power struggle between hostile foreign countries transpired. It became the heart of the Mujahideen, the Taliban and the al-Qaeda’s operational bases and subsequently the United States intervention after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and has remained engaged in its longest war as part of the ongoing “War on Terror” [2, p. 1]. While the US is pulling troops out and the Afghans are making peace, there is a potential threat, the rise of the Islamic State of Khorasan IS-K in Afghanistan. It is at this point that overall lessons gained from ground and first-hand experience can be applied to addressing the security issues that plague Afghanistan. Overall, there is a strong drive for peace amongst contemporary Afghans. They believe that negotiations and political settlement are in the nation’s best interests.

The End of Self-Regulation: On the Role of Internet Intermediaries in Countering Terror

Terrorism is a significant concern worldwide. Criminals, jihadists, and terrorists are quick to use technology to protect their anonymity, privacy, modes of operation, and secret antisocial plans. They adapt to new innovations and exploit any technological advantages as means to ends. Clandestine operations are used to raise funds. Criminals, jihadists, and terrorists are working in international cells and rings that contest geographical boundaries and that require large resources and international security cooperation to obstruct their activities. Addressing these cross-country challenges require cross-country cooperation. The aim of this essay is to analyze the role of Internet intermediaries in countering online terror. I argue that Internet intermediaries can and should do far more than what they do to proactively fight online terrorism and that self-regulation is not effective enough. It is time for governments to step in and to protect vulnerable third parties by demanding that Internet intermediaries be vigilant and proactive in fighting terror. The idea of a new browser, CleaNet, is proposed to ensure a safe environment for Net users and for society at large.