Projected changes in air temperature, precipitation and aridity in Serbia in the 21 st century

Abstract Changes in precipitation, air temperature, and model-simulated soil moisture were examined for the observed (1950–2008) and projected (2010–99) climate for the sowing period of Kharif and Rabi [KHARIF_SOW (May–July) and RABI_SOW (October–December)] and the entire Kharif and Rabi [KHARIF (May–October) and RABI (October–April)] crop-growing periods in India. During the KHARIF_SOW and KHARIF periods, precipitation declined significantly in the Gangetic Plain, which in turn resulted in declines in soil moisture. Statistically significant warming trends were noticed as all-India-averaged air temperature increased by 0.40°, 0.90°, and 0.70°C in the KHARIF, RABI_SOW, and RABI periods, respectively, during 1950–2008. Frequency and areal extent of soil moisture–based droughts increased substantially during the latter half (1980–2008) of the observed period. Under the projected climate (2010–99), precipitation, air temperature, and soil moisture are projected to increase in all four crop-growing seasons. In the projected climate, all-India ensemble mean precipitation, air temperature, and soil moisture are projected to increase up to 39% (RABI_SOW period), 2.3°C, and 5.3%, respectively, in the crop-growing periods. While projected changes in air temperature are robust across India, robust increases in precipitation and soil moisture are projected to occur in the end-term (2070–99) climate. Frequency and areal extents of soil moisture–based severe, extreme, and exceptional droughts are projected to increase in the near- (2010–39) and midterm (2040–69) climate in the majority of crop-growing seasons in India. However, frequency and areal extent of droughts during the crop-growing period are projected to decline in the end-term climate in the entire crop-growing period because of projected increases in the monsoon season precipitation.

Download Full-text

Simulation of air temperature and their influence on the potential distribution of Myracrodruon urundeuva, Copernicia prunifera and Cereus jamacaru in the Caatinga

SN Applied Sciences ◽

10.1007/s42452-021-04886-w ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Luciana Cristina de Sousa Vieira ◽

Vicente de Paula Silva Filho ◽

Prakki Satyamurty ◽

Vanessa de Almeida Dantas ◽

Aldeize da Silva Santos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Temperature ◽

Northeastern Brazil ◽

Time Interval ◽

Data Sets ◽

Conservation Areas ◽

Maxent Model ◽

The North ◽

Environmental Prediction ◽

Projected Changes ◽

Potential Area

AbstractAreas in the process of aridification in Caatinga phytogeographic domain in northeastern Brazil increase every year due to human intervention and increase in air temperature. The identification of long-term patterns and air temperature trends in the phytogeographic domain can express climate variability as well as a new phase of adaptation to some plant species. The temperature series from 1951 to 2018 obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction data sets in four conservation areas with native vegetation, located in the North (A1), East (A2), South (A3) and West (A4) regions of this phytogeographic domain, show an increase in temperature between 0.5 and 1.4 °C over the 68-year period with the highest warming occurring in the months of March, April and May. The Maxent model is used to identify the influence of this increase on the presence potential of three species in the Caatinga, Myracrodruon urundeuva (aroeira), Copernicia prunifera (palmeira) and Cereus jamacaru DC (cactus) in the future time interval of 2041 to 2060, considering IPCC projected climate changes. The results show that climate change can lead to a reduction as well as redistribution of the potential areas of occurrence of the three species. Notable changes are: in the case of Carnauba, the high potential area reduces from 25.3% in the present state to 19.6% in 2050, and potential area for Aroeira diminishes in central Bahia and increases in Rio Grande do Norte. The projected changes for all three species are discussed.

Download Full-text

Assessment of CMIP5 global climate models and projected changes in surface air temperature over the Arabian Peninsula in the twenty-first century

Arabian Journal of Geosciences ◽

10.1007/s12517-018-4011-7 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (21) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mansour Almazroui

Keyword(s):

Air Temperature ◽

Climate Models ◽

Arabian Peninsula ◽

Global Climate ◽

Surface Air Temperature ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

First Century ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

Projected Changes

Download Full-text

Projected changes to air temperature, sea-level rise, and storms for the Gulf of Maine region in 2050

Elem Sci Anth ◽

10.1525/elementa.2021.00059 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Lucy Chisholm ◽

Tracey Talbot ◽

William Appleby ◽

Benita Tam ◽

Robin Rong

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Gulf Of Maine ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

Projected Changes ◽

Storm Characteristics ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

A scientific scenario paper was prepared ahead of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) 2050 International Symposium to review and summarize possible weather-related and sea-level changes within the GOM as a result of climate change. It is projected that the GOM will experience warming temperatures, continued sea-level rise, and changes to storm characteristics and related elements such as precipitation and waves in the intermediate term, by approximately 2050. Coastal communities within the GOM region are particularly vulnerable to the anticipated impacts of climate change. This article aims to provide context on some of the consequential impacts that may occur from the changes projected within the area.

Download Full-text

Impacts of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 on future projected reference evapotranspiration in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)

Theoretical and Applied Climatology ◽

10.1007/s00704-021-03745-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ghaieth Ben Hamouda ◽

Rodica Tomozeiu ◽

Valentina Pavan ◽

Gabriele Antolini ◽

Richard L. Snyder ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Climate Model ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Reference Evapotranspiration ◽

Effect Of Temperature ◽

Reference Period ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Continuous Increase ◽

Projected Changes

AbstractThe continuous increase of atmospheric CO2 content mainly due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions is causing a rise in temperature on earth, altering the hydrological and meteorological processes and affecting crop physiology. Evapotranspiration is an important component of the hydrological cycle. Thus, understanding the change in evapotranspiration due to global warming is essential for better water resources planning and management and agricultural production. In this study, the effect of climate change with a focus on the combined effect of temperature and elevated CO2 concentrations on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was evaluated using the Penman–Monteith equation. A EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) ensemble was used to estimate ETo in five locations in the Emilia-Romagna region (Northern Italy) during the period 2021–2050. Then, its projected changes in response to different CO2 concentrations (i.e., 372 ppm and 550 ppm) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were analyzed. Simulation results with both scenarios, without increasing CO2 levels (372 ppm), showed that the annual and summertime ETo for all locations increased by an average of 4 to 5.4% with regard to the reference period 1981–2005, for an increase of air temperature by 1 to 1.5 °C. When the effect of elevated CO2 levels (550 ppm) was also considered in combination with projected changes in temperature, changes in both annual and summer ETo demand for all locations varied from − 1.1 to 2.2% during the 2021–2050 period with regard to the reference period 1981–2005. This shows that higher CO2 levels moderated the increase in ETo that accompanies an increase in air temperature.

Download Full-text