scholarly journals 200 years of equilibrium-line altitude variability across the European Alps (1901−2100)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manja Žebre ◽  
Renato R. Colucci ◽  
Filippo Giorgi ◽  
Neil F. Glasser ◽  
Adina E. Racoviteanu ◽  
...  

AbstractMountain glaciers are key indicators of climate change. Their response is revealed by the environmental equilibrium-line altitude (ELA), i.e. the regional altitude of zero mass balance averaged over a long period of time. We introduce a simple approach for distributed modelling of the environmental ELA over the entire European Alps based on the parameterization of ELA in terms of summer temperature and annual precipitation at a glacier. We use 200 years of climate records and forecasts to model environmental ELA from 1901 to 2100 at 5 arcmin grid cell resolution. Historical environmental ELAs are reconstructed based on precipitation from the Long-term Alpine Precipitation reconstruction (LAPrec) dataset and temperature from the Historical Instrumental climatological Surface Time series of the greater Alpine region (HISTALP). The simulations of future environmental ELAs are forced with high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate model projections for the European domain using three different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP). Our reconstructions yielded an environmental ELA across the European Alps of 2980 m above sea level for the period 1901−1930, with a rise of 114 m in the period 1971−2000. The environmental ELA is projected to exceed the maximum elevation of 69%, 81% and 92% of the glaciers in the European Alps by 2071−2100 under mitigation (RCP2.6), stabilization (RCP4.5) and high greenhouse gas emission (RCP8.5) scenarios, respectively.

Author(s):  
Vinícius Machado Rocha ◽  
Francis Wagner Silva Correia ◽  
Prakki Satyamurty ◽  
Saulo Ribeiro De Freitas ◽  
Demerval Soares Moreira ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 3175-3196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathieu Vrac

Abstract. Climate simulations often suffer from statistical biases with respect to observations or reanalyses. It is therefore common to correct (or adjust) those simulations before using them as inputs into impact models. However, most bias correction (BC) methods are univariate and so do not account for the statistical dependences linking the different locations and/or physical variables of interest. In addition, they are often deterministic, and stochasticity is frequently needed to investigate climate uncertainty and to add constrained randomness to climate simulations that do not possess a realistic variability. This study presents a multivariate method of rank resampling for distributions and dependences (R2D2) bias correction allowing one to adjust not only the univariate distributions but also their inter-variable and inter-site dependence structures. Moreover, the proposed R2D2 method provides some stochasticity since it can generate as many multivariate corrected outputs as the number of statistical dimensions (i.e., number of grid cell  ×  number of climate variables) of the simulations to be corrected. It is based on an assumption of stability in time of the dependence structure – making it possible to deal with a high number of statistical dimensions – that lets the climate model drive the temporal properties and their changes in time. R2D2 is applied on temperature and precipitation reanalysis time series with respect to high-resolution reference data over the southeast of France (1506 grid cell). Bivariate, 1506-dimensional and 3012-dimensional versions of R2D2 are tested over a historical period and compared to a univariate BC. How the different BC methods behave in a climate change context is also illustrated with an application to regional climate simulations over the 2071–2100 period. The results indicate that the 1d-BC basically reproduces the climate model multivariate properties, 2d-R2D2 is only satisfying in the inter-variable context, 1506d-R2D2 strongly improves inter-site properties and 3012d-R2D2 is able to account for both. Applications of the proposed R2D2 method to various climate datasets are relevant for many impact studies. The perspectives of improvements are numerous, such as introducing stochasticity in the dependence itself, questioning its stability assumption, and accounting for temporal properties adjustment while including more physics in the adjustment procedures.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Ménégoz ◽  
Evgenia Valla ◽  
Nicolas C. Jourdain ◽  
Juliette Blanchet ◽  
Julien Beaumet ◽  
...  

Abstract. Changes of precipitation over the European Alps are investigated with the regional climate model MAR applied with a 7-km resolution over the period 1903–2010 using the reanalysis ERA-20C as forcing. A comparison with several observational datasets demonstrates that the model is able to reproduce the climatology as well as both the inter-annual variability and the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the European Alps. The relatively high resolution allows to estimate precipitation at high elevations. The vertical gradient of precipitation simulated by MAR over the European Alps reaches 33 % km−1 (1.21 mm.day−1.km−1) in summer and 38 % km−1 (1.15 mm.day−1.km−1) in winter, on average over 1971–2008 and shows a large spatial variability. A significant (p-value 


MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-230
Author(s):  
O. P. SINGH ◽  
K. RUPA KUMAR ◽  
P. K. MISHRA ◽  
K. KRISHNA KUMAR ◽  
S. K. PATWARDHAN

Lkkj & bl 'kks/k&i= esa HkweaMyh; tyok;q ifjorZu ds ifj.kkeLo:i 'krkCnh ds e/; ¼2041&60½ ds nkSjku ,f’k;kbZ xzh"edkyhu ekulwu ds fof’k"V y{k.kksa dk iwokZuqeku djus ds mÌs’; ls vuqdj.k iz;ksxksa ds ifj.kke izLrqr fd, x, gSaA blds fy, gSMys tyok;q iwokZuqeku vkSj vuqla/kku dsUnz] ;w- ds- dk {ks=h; tyok;q ekWMy gSM vkj- ,e- 2 dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gSA ,f’k;kbZ {ks= ds fy, 20 o"kksZa dh vof/k ds nks vuqdj.k iz;ksx fd, x, gSa uker% igyk] 1990 Lrjksa ds vuq:i xzhu gkml xSl lkanz.k dh fu/kkZfjr ek=k] ftls dUVªksy ¼lh- Vh- ,y-½ iz;ksx dgk x;k gS vkSj nwljk 1990 ls ysdj 2041&60 rd ds fy, xzhu gkml xSl lkanz.k ds okf"kZd feJ.k esa 1 izfr’kr dh o`f) lesr ftls vkxs xzhu gkml xSl ¼th- ,p- th-½ iz;ksx dgk x;k gSA xzhu gkml xSl lkanz.k esa okf"kZd feJ.k esa 1 izfr’kr dh o`f) tyok;q ifjorZu ds var% ljdkjh iSuy vkbZ- ih- lh- lh- }kjk rS;kj dh xbZ ;kstuk ls yh xbZ gSA bu iz;ksxksa ls 'krkCnh ds e/; ds nkSjku ,f’k;kbZ xzh"edkyhu ekulwu esa ik, tkus okys fof’k"V y{k.kksa esa gksus okys dqN ifjorZuksa dk irk pyk gS ftudk c<+s gq, ekuotfur mRltZdksa ds dkj.k gksuk LokHkkfor gSA lewph ekulwu _rq ds nkSjku Hkkjrh; {ks= ij fuEu {kksHk eaMy ¼850 gSDVkikLdy½ esa ekulwu nzks.kh ¼,e- Vh- ½ dk mRrj dh vksj lkekU; :i ls c<+uk lcls vf/kd egRoiw.kZ ifjorZu izrhr gksrk gSA vuqdj.k ifj.kkeksa ls ekulwu _rq ds nkSjku vjc lkxj esa leqnz Lrj nkc ¼,l- ,y- ih-½ esa yxHkx 1&2 gS- ik- dh o`f) dk irk pyk gS ftlds ifj.kkeLo:i fuEu {kksHk eaMy esa vlkekU; izfrpØokr gksrs gSaA bldk vFkZ ;g gqvk fd fuEu Lrjh; tsV ¼,y- ,y- ts-½ vkSj vjc lkxj esa ekulwu dh /kkjk det+ksj iM+ tkrh gSA ;g ekWMy m".krj leqnz lrg dh fLFkfr;ksa esa fgan egklkxj ds mRrj esa ekulwuh pØokrh; fo{kksHkksa dh vko`fr esa deh dks vuqdfjr djrk gS tks gky gh ds n’kdksa esa ekulwu ds vonkcksa dh vko`fr esa deh dh izo`fr;ksa ds vuq:i ikbZ xbZ gSA bu iz;ksxksa ls ;g irk pyrk gS fd ikfdLrku vkSj mlds lehiorhZ mRrjh if’peh Hkkjr ds Åij Å"ek fuEunkc rhoz gks ldrk gS vkSj ekulwu _rq           ds nkSjku FkksM+k iwoZ dh vksj c<+ ldrh gSA ;g ekWMy] Hkkjrh; leqnz ds nf{k.kh Hkkxksa esa 8° & 10° m- ds chp 100 gS- ik- ¼Vh- bZ- ts- dksj dk Lrj½ ij fo’ks"kdj ekulwu ds iwokZ)Z ds nkSjku m".kdfVca/kh; iwokZfHkeq[kh tsV¼Vh- bZ- ts-½ dks izHkkfor djrk gSA The paper presents the results of simulation experiments aimed at predicting the characteristic features of Asian Summer Monsoon during the middle of the century (2041-60) resulting from global climate change. The model used is HadRM2 regional climate model of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK. Two simulation experiments of 20 years length have been performed for the Asian domain, namely, one with a fixed amount of greenhouse gas concentration corresponding to 1990 levels called the 'control' (CTL) experiment and the other with the annual compound increase of 1 % in the greenhouse gas concentration for 2041-60 from 1990 onwards called the 'greenhouse gas' (GHG) experiment. The annual compound increment of 1 %, in the greenhouse gas concentration has been adopted from the projection given by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). The experiments have brought out some of the changes in the characteristic features of mid-century Asian summer monsoons that are expected to occur due to increased anthropogenic emissions. The most significant change seems to be a general northward shift of the monsoon trough (MT) in the lower troposphere (850 hPa) throughout the monsoon season over the Indian region. The simulation results have shown an increase of about 1-2 hPa in the sea level pressure (SLP) over the Arabian Sea during the monsoon resulting in an anomalous anticyclone over there in the lower troposphere. This would mean the weakening of Low Level Jet (LLJ) and the Arabian sea branch of the monsoon current. The model has simulated a decrease in the frequency of the monsoonal cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean under the warmer sea surface conditions which conforms to the observed decreasing trends in the frequency of monsoon depressions in recent decades. The experiments have shown that the Heat Low over Pakistan and adjoining northwest India, may intensify and shift slightly eastward during the monsoon. The model has simulated the strengthening of Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) at          100 hPa (the location of TEJ core ) over the southern parts of Indian sea between 8° - 10° N, especially during the first half of the monsoon season.


2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1599-1620 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Wagner ◽  
I. Fast ◽  
F. Kaspar

Abstract. In this study, we assess how the anthropogenically induced increase in greenhouse gas concentrations affects the climate of central and southern South America. We utilise two regional climate simulations for present day (PD) and pre-industrial (PI) times. These simulations are compared to historical reconstructions in order to investigate the driving processes responsible for climatic changes between the different periods. The regional climate model is validated against observations for both re-analysis data and GCM-driven regional simulations for the second half of the 20th century. Model biases are also taken into account for the interpretation of the model results. The added value of the regional simulation over global-scale modelling relates to a better representation of hydrological processes that are particularly evident in the proximity of the Andes Mountains. Climatic differences between the simulated PD minus PI period agree qualitatively well with proxy-based temperature reconstructions, albeit the regional model overestimates the amplitude of the temperature increase. For precipitation the most important changes between the PD and PI simulation relate to a dipole pattern along the Andes Mountains with increased precipitation over the southern parts and reduced precipitation over the central parts. Here only a few regions show robust similarity with studies based on empirical evidence. However, from a dynamical point-of-view, atmospheric circulation changes related to an increase in high-latitude zonal wind speed simulated by the regional climate model are consistent with numerical modelling studies addressing changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results indicate that besides the direct effect of greenhouse gas changes, large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures also exert an influence on temperature and precipitation changes in southern South America. These combined changes in turn affect the relationship between climate and atmospheric circulation between PD and PI times and should be considered for the statistical reconstruction of climate indices calibrated within present-day climate data.


2001 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 689
Author(s):  
C.D. Mitchell ◽  
G.I. Pearman

The prospect of global-scale changes in climate resulting from changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has produced a complex set of public and private- sector responses. This paper reviews several elements of this issue that are likely to be most important to industry.Scientific research continues to provide evidence to suggest that global climate will change significantly over the coming decades due to increases in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Nonetheless, there exists a debate over the difference between observations of temperature retrieved from satellite and temperature measurements taken from the surface. Recent research undertaken to inform the debate is discussed, with the conclusion that there are real differences in trend between the surface and the lower atmosphere that can be explained in physical terms. Attention is turning to developing an understanding as to why climate model results show apparently consistent trends between the surface and the lower atmosphere, in contrast to these observations.While such uncertainties in the underlying science have been used to question whether action on the greenhouse issues is necessary, the initial response, as evidenced by international negotiations, has been to start mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation to future climate change has received less attention than mitigation. A number of reasons for this are discussed, including the fact that regional scenarios of climate change are uncertain.The principles of risk management may be one way to manage the uncertainties associated with projections of regional climate change. Although the application of risk management to the potential impacts of climate change requires further investigation, elements of such a framework are identified, and include:Identifying the critical climate-related thresholds that are important to industry and its operations (for example, a 1-in-100 year return tropical cyclone).Using this understanding to analyse, and where possible quantify, industry’s pre-existing or baseline adaptive state through the use of sensitivity surfaces and quantified thresholds (for example, were facilities designed for a 1-in-100 event or a 1-in-500 year event?)Establishing probabilistic statements or scenarios of climate that are relevant to industry practice (for example, risk of a storm surge may be more important to operations than elevated wind strength; if so, what is the probability that an event will exceed the design threshold during the lifetime of the facility?).Bringing information on existing adaptive mechanisms together with climate scenarios to produce a quantitative risk assessment.Deciding on risk treatment (additional adaptive measures).


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Ménégoz ◽  
Julien Beaumet ◽  
Hubert Gallée ◽  
Xavier Fettweis ◽  
Samuel Morin ◽  
...  

&lt;p&gt;The evolution of temperature, precipitation and snow cover in the European Alps have been simulated with the regional climate model MAR applied with a 7 kilometre horizontal resolution and driven by the ERA-20C (1902-2010) and the ERA5 reanalyses (1981-2018). A comparison with observational datasets, including French and Swiss local meteorological stations, in-situ glacier mass balance measurements and reanalysis product demonstrates high model skill for snow cover duration and snow water equivalent (SWE) as well as for the climatology and the inter-annual variability of both temperature and precipitation. The relatively high resolution allows to estimate the meteorological variables up to 3000m.a.s.l. The vertical gradient of precipitation simulated by MAR over the European Alps reaches 33% km-1 (1.21 mmd-1.km-1) in summer and 38%km-1 (1.15mmd mmd-1.km-1) in winter, on average over 1971&amp;#8211;2008 and shows a large spatial variability. This study evidences seasonal and altitudinal contrasts of climate trends over the Alps. A significant (pvalue&lt; 0.05) increase in mean winter precipitation is simulated in the northwestern Alps over 1903&amp;#8211;2010, with changes typically reaching 20% to 40% per century, a signal strongly modulated by multi-decadal variability during the second part of the century. A general drying is found in summer over the same period, exceeding 20% to 30% per century in the western plains and 40% to 50% per century in the southern plains surrounding the Alps but remaining smaller (&lt;10%) and not significant above 1500ma.s.l. Over 1903&amp;#8211;2010, the maximum of daily precipitation (Rx1day) shows a general and significant increase at the annual timescale and also during the four seasons, reaching local values between 20% and 40% per century over large parts of the Alps and the Apennines. Trends of Rx1day are significant (pvalue&lt;0.05) only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years depending on the area considered. Some of these trends are nonetheless significant when computed over 1970&amp;#8211;2010, suggesting a recent acceleration of the increase in extreme precipitation. Rx1day increase occurs where the annual correlation between temperature and intense precipitation is high. The highest warming rates in MAR are found at low elevations (&lt; 1000 m a.s.l) in winter, whereas they are found at high elevations (&gt; 2000 m a.s.l) in summer. In spring, warming trends show a maximum at intermediate elevations (1500 m to 1800 m). Our results suggest that higher warming at these elevations is mostly linked with the snow-albedo feedback in spring and summer.&lt;/p&gt;


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukas Rettig ◽  
Francesco Ferrarese ◽  
Giovanni Monegato ◽  
Paolo Mozzi ◽  
Matteo Spagnolo

&lt;p&gt;The reconstruction of paleoglaciers and specifically the calculation of their equilibrium line altitude (ELA) is an important source of quantitative paleoclimatic information in mountainous regions. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the prealpine massifs in the south-eastern part of the Alpine chain (Venetian Prealps, Carnic Prealps and Julian Prealps) hosted several small valley glaciers and local ice caps that were isolated from the larger ice-streams occupying the major valleys. Because of their small size and independent dynamics these glaciers can be considered as excellent indicators of local climatic conditions. Although this potential has long been recognised and the sediments and landforms related to these glaciations have been mapped in a few areas, a regional perspective on this type of glaciation is still lacking. This is primarily due to the wide range of methods of ELA reconstructions that has been applied historically, which makes a solid comparison between different localities difficult.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here, we present a detailed re-evaluation of local LGM glaciation in the south-eastern Alps based on a large-scale survey of remote sensing data and targeted field work at selected localities. Recently developed GIS tools were applied for the reconstruction of paleoglacier geometries and ELAs (Pellitero et al. 2015, 2016). The obtained values are used both to discuss regional climatic patterns during the LGM and site-specific topographic factors. A specific focus is set on the Monte Cavallo group, where glacial sediments from the LGM are covering a thick sequence of interstadial lacustrine deposits. A set of new radiocarbon dates from this succession provides a first chronological control on the onset of glacier expansion in this part of the Alpine chain.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;References:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Pellitero, R. et al. 2015. A GIS tool for automatic calculation of glacier equilibrium-line altitudes.&amp;#160;Computers &amp; Geosciences&amp;#160;82: 55-62.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Pellitero, R. et al. 2016. GlaRe, a GIS tool to reconstruct the 3D surface of palaeoglaciers.&amp;#160;Computers &amp; Geosciences&amp;#160;94: 77-85.&lt;/p&gt;


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Heavens

&lt;p&gt;Highland environments are rarely preserved in the geological record, particularly from as early as the Paleozoic Era. However, several stratigraphic locations are now known which definitely or potentially preserve such environments near the paleoequator during the Late Carboniferous and Early Permian Periods, during which the Earth was in the depths of an icehouse climate like that of the Pliocene and Pleistocene Epochs, the Late Paleozoic Ice Age (LPIA). Several of these locations contain evidence of mountain glaciation at altitudes below 2000 m, leading to questions about the significance of tropical mountain glaciation for global climate during this interval of geologic time. However, climate model simulations for the LPIA have not been able to simulate mountain glaciation like that inferred from the geological record, possibly because of low resolution, incorrect boundary conditions, or climate model bias resulting from incomplete representation of moist convective processes impacting tropical lapse rates.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The overarching purpose of this study is to develop a climate modeling framework that enables the significance of mountain glaciation for global paleoclimate to be evaluated. Ideally, such a framework would allow low-resolution global model output to be downscaled to the scale of a mountain range to calculate the equilibrium line altitude and similar parameters, enabling evidence of mountain glaciation in the deep past to be used to constrain/tune the low-resolution global models. While this study was designed to inform a specific problem in deep time paleoclimate, its results are likely broadly applicable to assessing how well mountain glaciation is captured by global climate modeling of the past, present, and future. &amp;#160;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here, I present a framework in which the CMIP6 pre-industrial control simulation for the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) at 0.9&amp;#176;x1.25&amp;#176; resolution is used to generate a data atmosphere for the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) run at 0.01&amp;#176; resolution in 10 tropical and 1 mid-latitude domain to study the surface mass balance over the domain. For computational reasons, glaciation is assumed to cover a small portion of each grid cell, but surface mass balance still can be evaluated. Topographic boundary conditions come from GMTED2010, but most other information is directly interpolated from the CESM2 simulation. CLM5 simulations require a fixed lapse rate to be assumed, which is varied in each CLM5 simulation across six different values. The CLM5 simulation output along with the mean tropical lapse rate in the CESM2 simulation is then used to evaluate the various biases of this framework in comparison with estimated pre-industrial equilibrium line altitudes for the studied domains.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This work is supported by the National Science Foundation (USA) under grant EAR-1849754.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;


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