scholarly journals Modelling pyroclastic density currents from a subplinian eruption at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (West Indies, France)

2020 ◽  
Vol 82 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomaso Esposti Ongaro ◽  
Jean-Christophe Komorowski ◽  
Yoann Legendre ◽  
Augusto Neri
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Dynamic Pressure ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Density Currents ◽  
Eruption Rate ◽  
Mass Eruption Rate

AbstractWe have used a three-dimensional, non-equilibrium multiphase flow numerical model to simulate subplinian eruption scenarios at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles, France). Initial and boundary conditions for computer simulations were set on the basis of independent estimates of eruption source parameters (i.e. mass eruption rate, volatile content, temperature, grain size distribution) from a field reconstruction of the 1530 CE subplinian eruption. This event is here taken as a reference scenario for hazard assessment at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe. A parametric study on eruption source parameters allowed us to quantify their influence on the simulated dynamics and, in particular, the increase of the percentage of column collapse and pyroclastic density current (PDC) intensity, at constant mass eruption rate, with variable vent diameter. Numerical results enabled us to quantify the effects of the proximal morphology on distributing the collapsing mass around the volcano and into deep and long valleys and to estimate the areas invaded by PDCs, their associated temperature and dynamic pressure. Significant impact (temperature > 300 °C and dynamic pressure > 1 kPa) in the inhabited region around the volcano is expected for fully collapsing conditions and mass eruption rates > 2 × 107 kg/s. We thus combine this spatial distribution of temperature and dynamic pressure with an objective consideration of model-related uncertainty to produce preliminary PDC hazard maps for the reference scenario. In such a representation, we identify three areas of varying degree of susceptibility to invasion by PDCs—very likely to be invaded (and highly impacted), susceptible to invasion (and moderately impacted), and unlikely to be invaded (or marginally impacted). The study also raises some key questions about the use of deterministic scenario simulations for hazard assessment, where probability distributions and uncertainties are difficult to estimate. Use of high-performance computing techniques will in part allow us to overcome such difficulties, but the problem remains open in a scientific context where validation of numerical models is still, necessarily, an incomplete and ongoing process. Nevertheless, our findings provide an important contribution to the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazard and risk at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe particularly in the context of the current unrest of the volcano and the need to prepare for a possible future reawakening of the volcano that could culminate in a magmatic explosive eruption.

A new database of independently estimated eruption source parameters devoted to eruptive column model evaluation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha Engwell ◽  
Thomas Aubry ◽  
Sebastien Biass ◽  
Costanza Bonadonna ◽  
Marcus Bursik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Source Parameters ◽  
Column Height ◽  
Density Currents ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Eruption Rate ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Mass Eruption Rate ◽  
Eruptive Column ◽  
Future Events

<p>Eruptive column models are crucial for managing volcanic crises, forecasting future events, and reconstructing past eruptions. Given their central role in volcanology and the large uncertainties weakening their predictions, the evaluation and improvement of these models is critical. Such evaluation is challenging as it requires independent estimates of the main model inputs (e.g. mass eruption rate) and outputs (e.g. column height). Despite recent efforts to extend datasets of independently estimated eruption source parameters (ESP) (e.g. Mastin 2014, Aubry et al. 2017), there is no standardized, maintained, and community-based ESP database devoted to the evaluation of eruptive column models.</p><p>Here we present a new ESP database designed to respond to the needs of the plume modelling community, and which will also be valuable to observatories, field volcanologists, and volcanic ash advisory centers. We compiled data for over 130 eruptive events with independent estimates of: i) the mass eruption rate; ii) the height reached by the column; and iii) atmospheric conditions during the eruption. In contrast with previous ESP datasets, we distinguish estimates of column height that relate to different phases (ash and SO2) and parts of the column (plume top or umbrella). We additionally provide the total grain size distribution, uncertainties in eruption parameters, and multiple sources for atmospheric profiles for events where these parameters are available. The database also includes a wealth of additional information which will enable modelers to distinguish between different eruptions when evaluating or calibrating models. This includes the type of eruption, the morphology of the plume (weak/transitional/strong), and the occurrence and mass entrained within pyroclastic density currents.</p><p>We will apply the new database to revisit empirical scaling relationships between the mass eruption rate and “plume height”. In particular, we will show how such relationships depend on the type of height (e.g. SO2 height vs. ash top height) and eruption (e.g. magmatic vs. phreatomagmatic) considered. We will also discuss the difficulties and limitations of compiling ESP estimates from the literature as well as characterizing fundamentally unsteady volcanic events by a single value for each ESP.</p>

Design and evaluation of a wedge-type anchor for fibre reinforced polymer tendons

2000 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 985-992 ◽  
Author(s):  
T I Campbell ◽  
N G Shrive ◽  
K A Soudki ◽  
A Al-Mayah ◽  
J P Keatley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Performance ◽  
High Performance Concrete ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Ultra High Performance Concrete ◽  
Reinforced Polymer ◽  
Anchorage System ◽  
Fibre Reinforced Polymer ◽  
Load Tests ◽  
Tendon Tension ◽  
Post Tensioning

The development of a wedge-type anchorage system for fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) tendons, as part of an overall corrosion-free post-tensioning system, is outlined in this paper. A stainless steel anchor is described, and results from numerical models and load tests to evaluate its behaviour under loads from anchor set, as well as static and repeated tendon tension, are presented. An alternative wedge-type anchorage system made from ultra-high performance concrete is also described. It is shown that, although significant progress has been made in development of the anchorage, further work is required to make it more robust.Key words: FRP tendons, post-tensioning, anchorage, corrosion-free, mathematical models, load tests, concrete.

scholarly journals Modeling of Spray Combustion with a Steady Laminar Flamelet Model in an Aeroengine Combustion Chamber Based on OpenFOAM

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Yinli Xiao ◽  
Zupeng Wang ◽  
Zhengxin Lai ◽  
Wenyan Song
Keyword(s):  
Combustion Chamber ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Spray Combustion ◽  
Combustion Chambers ◽  
Flamelet Model ◽  
Steady Laminar ◽  
Good Agreement ◽  
Laminar Flamelet ◽  
Laminar Flamelet Model

The development of high-performance aeroengine combustion chambers strongly depends on the accuracy and reliability of efficient numerical models. In the present work, a reacting solver with a steady laminar flamelet model and spray model has been developed in OpenFOAM and the solver details are presented. The solver is firstly validated by Sandia/ETH-Zurich flames. Furthermore, it is used to simulate nonpremixed kerosene/air spray combustion in an aeroengine combustion chamber with the RANS method. A comparison with available experimental data shows good agreement and validates the capability of the new developed solver in OpenFOAM.

Development of an Inverse Plume Model for Mass Eruption Rate in Unsteady Conditions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen A Solovitz
Keyword(s):  
Laboratory Data ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Reynolds Numbers ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Plume Height ◽  
Eruption Rate ◽  
Mass Eruption Rate ◽  
Downstream Effects ◽  
Order Of Magnitude

Abstract Following volcanic eruptions, forecasters need accurate estimates of mass eruption rate (MER) to appropriately predict the downstream effects. Most analyses use simple correlations or models based on large eruptions at steady conditions, even though many volcanoes feature significant unsteadiness. To address this, a superposition model is developed based on a technique used for spray injection applications, which predicts plume height as a function of the time-varying exit velocity. This model can be inverted, providing estimates of MER using field observations of a plume. The model parameters are optimized using laboratory data for plumes with physically-relevant exit profiles and Reynolds numbers, resulting in predictions that agree to within 10% of measured exit velocities. The model performance is examined using a historic eruption from Stromboli with well-documented unsteadiness, again providing MER estimates of the correct order of magnitude. This method can provide a rapid alternative for real-time forecasting of small, unsteady eruptions.

Ensemble-based data assimilation of volcanic aerosols using FALL3D+PDAF

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Mingari ◽  
Andrew Prata ◽  
Federica Pardini
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Information Transfer ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Column Height ◽  
Eruption Column ◽  
Operational Environment ◽  
Assimilation System

<p>Modelling atmospheric dispersion and deposition of volcanic ash is becoming increasingly valuable for understanding the potential impacts of explosive volcanic eruptions on infrastructures, air quality and aviation. The generation of high-resolution forecasts depends on the accuracy and reliability of the input data for models. Uncertainties in key parameters such as eruption column height injection, physical properties of particles or meteorological fields, represent a major source of error in forecasting airborne volcanic ash. The availability of nearly real time geostationary satellite observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions provides the opportunity to improve forecasts in an operational context. Data assimilation (DA) is one of the most effective ways to reduce the error associated with the forecasts through the incorporation of available observations into numerical models. Here we present a new implementation of an ensemble-based data assimilation system based on the coupling between the FALL3D dispersal model and the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The implementation is based on the last version release of FALL3D (versions 8.x) tailored to the extreme-scale computing requirements, which has been redesigned and rewritten from scratch in the framework of the EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE). The proposed methodology can be efficiently implemented in an operational environment by exploiting high-performance computing (HPC) resources. The FALL3D+PDAF system can be run in parallel and supports online-coupled DA, which allows an efficient information transfer through parallel communication. Satellite-retrieved data from recent volcanic eruptions were considered as input observations for the assimilation system.</p>

The numerical reconstruction of three past eruptions at Gede volcano (Indonesia)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleanor Tennant ◽  
Susanna Jenkins ◽  
Annie Winson ◽  
Christina Widiwijayanti ◽  
Hendra Gunawan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Frictional Resistance ◽  
Collapse Mechanism ◽  
Eruption Dynamics ◽  
Pyroclastic Density Currents ◽  
Density Currents ◽  
Basal Friction ◽  
Column Collapse ◽  
Hazard And Risk

<p>Understanding past eruption dynamics at a volcano is crucial for forecasting the range of possible future eruptions and their associated hazards and risk. In this work we reconstructed pyroclastic density currents and tephra fall from three eruptions at Gede volcano, Indonesia with the aim of gaining further insight into past eruptions and identifying suitable eruption source parameters for future hazard and risk assessment. Gede has the largest number of people living within 100 km of any volcano worldwide, and has exhibited recent unrest activity, yet little is known about its eruption history. For pyroclastic density currents, we used Titan2D to reconstruct geological deposits dated at 1200 and c. 1000 years BP. An objective and quantitative multi-criteria method was developed to evaluate the fit of over 300 pyroclastic density current (PDC) model simulations to field observations. We found that the 1200 years BP geological deposits could be reproduced with either a dome collapse or column collapse as the generation mechanism although a relatively low basal friction of 6 degrees would suggest that the PDCs were markedly mobile. Lower basal frictions may reflect the occurrence of previous PDCs that smoothed the path, reducing frictional resistance and enabling greater runout for the reconstructed unit. For the 1,000 years BP PDC, a column collapse mechanism and higher basal friction was required to fit the geological deposits. In agreement with previous studies, we found that Titan2D simulations were most sensitive to the basal friction; however, we also found that the internal friction – often fixed and considered of low influence on outputs - can have a moderate effect on the simulated average deposit thickness. We used Tephra2 to reconstruct historic observations of tephra dispersed to Jakarta and other towns during the last known magmatic eruption of Gede in 1948. In the absence of observable field deposits, or detailed information from the published literature, we stochastically sampled eruption source parameters from wide ranges informed by analogous volcanic systems. Our modelling suggests that the deposition of tephra in Jakarta during the November 1948 eruption was a very low probability event, with approximately a 0.03 % chance of occurrence. Through this work, we exemplify the reconstruction of past eruptions when faced with epistemic uncertainty, and improve our understanding of past eruption dynamics at Gede volcano, providing a crucial step towards the reduction of risk to nearby populations through volcanic hazard assessment.</p>

Source Parameter Sensitivity of Earthquake Simulations assisted by Machine Learning 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco ◽  
J. Carlos Carrasco-Jimenez ◽  
Otilio Rojas ◽  
Juan E. Rodriguez ◽  
David Modesto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Moment Tensor ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Source Parameter ◽  
Earthquake Simulation ◽  
Centroid Moment Tensor ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Earthquake Simulations

<p>After large magnitude earthquakes have been recorded, a crucial task for hazard assessment is to quickly estimate Ground Shaking (GS) intensities at the affected region. Urgent physics-based earthquake simulations using High-Performance Computing (HPC) facilities may allow fast GS intensity analyses but are very sensitive to source parameter values. When using fast estimates of source parameters such as magnitude, location, fault dimensions, and/or Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT), simulations are prone to errors in their computed GS. Although the approaches to estimate earthquake location and magnitude are consolidated, depth location estimates are largely uncertain. Moreover, automatic CMT solutions are not always provided by seismological agencies, or such solutions are available at later times after waveform inversions allow the determination of moment tensor components. The uncertainty on these parameters, especially a few minutes after the earthquake has been registered, strongly affects GS maps resulting from simulations.</p><p>In this work, we present a workflow prototype to produce an uncertainty quantification method as a function of the source parameters. The core of this workflow is based on Machine Learning (ML) techniques. As a study case, we consider a domain of 110x80 km centered in 63.9ºN-20.6ºW in Southern Iceland, where the 17 best-mapped faults have hosted the historical events of the largest magnitude. We generate synthetic GS intensity maps using the AWP-ODC finite-difference code for earthquake simulation and a one-dimensional velocity model, with 40 recording surface stations. By varying a few source parameters (e.g. event magnitude, CMT, and hypocenter location), we finally model tens of thousands of hypothetical earthquakes. Our ML analog will then be able to relate GS intensity maps to source parameters, thus simplifying sensitivity studies.</p><p>Additionally, the results of this workflow prototype will allow us to obtain ML-based intensity maps a few seconds after an earthquake occurs exploiting the predictive power of ML techniques. We will evaluate the accuracy of these maps as standalone complements to GMPEs and simulations.</p>

scholarly journals Mode-I Fracture Behavior of CFRPs: Numerical Model of the Experimental Results

Materials ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Barile ◽  
Caterina Casavola ◽  
Benedetto Gambino ◽  
Alessandro Mellone ◽  
Marco Spagnolo
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Model ◽  
Composite Laminates ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Mechanical Response ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Constitutive Relationship ◽  
Mode I ◽  
Experimental Calibration ◽  
Reinforced Plastics ◽  
High Performance Composite

In the last decades, the increasing use of laminate materials, such as carbon fibre reinforced plastics, in several engineering applications has pushed researchers to deeply investigate their mechanical behavior, especially in consideration of the delamination process, which could affect their performance. The need for improving the capability of the current instruments in predicting some collapse or strength reduction due to hidden damages leads to the necessity to combine numerical models with experimental campaigns. The validation of the numerical models could give useful information about the mechanical response of the materials, providing predictive data about their lifetime. The purpose of the delamination tests is to collect reliable results by monitoring the delamination growth of the simulated in situ cracking and use them to validate the numerical models. In this work, an experimental campaign was carried out on high performance composite laminates with respect to the delamination mode I; subsequently, a numerical model representative of the experimental setup was built. The ANSYS Workbench Suite was used to simulate the delamination phenomena and modeFRONTIER was applied for the numerical/experimental calibration of the constitutive relationship on the basis of the delamination process, whose mechanism was implemented by means of the cohesive zone material (CZM) model.

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