scholarly journals Demographic forecasting of population projection in Greece: A Bayesian probabilistic study

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Lamnisos ◽  
K Giannakou ◽  
T Siligari
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Demographic Aging ◽  
The Social ◽  
Support Ratio

Abstract Background Demographic aging is an emerging issue in Greece, characterized by low fertility and increased life expectancy. Undoubtedly, demographic aging is a challenge for public health not only due to the financing of public pensions, but also for the increasing utilization of health care. Methods The total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth are projected probabilistically using Bayesian hierarchical models and United Nations population data for Greece from the period of 1950 to 2015. These are then converted to age-specific mortality rates and combined with a cohort component projection model. This yields probabilistic projections of total population by sex and age groups, total fertility rate (TFR), female and male life expectancies at birth and potential support ratio PSR (persons aged 20-64 per person 65+) by the year 2100. Results The total population in Greece in 1950 was around 7.5 million, increasing to 11 million based on the 2011 population census but is projected to decline to 7.5 million at 2100. TFR has followed a strong downward trend with 1.4 children per woman in 2005-2010 and is projected to have a slight increase to 1.6 and 1.8 children per woman for 2050 and 2100 with all values being below the replacement-level fertility. Life expectancy is expected to increase to 84 years for men and 88 years for women in 2050, and 90 years for men and 94 years for women in 2100. PSR is expected to decline dramatically from 3 in 2011 to approximately 1.5 in 2050 and 2100. Conclusions Over the years, Greece has lost its youthful structure and has acquired the characteristics of an aging population, reflecting the population distribution of Western countries. Demographic aging is harmful for the economic growth, the social security system, the social assistance, and it is closely linked to national defense and public health. A long-term multidimensional program is recommended to confront the demographic issue based on the previous international experience. Key messages Total fertility rate will be below replacement level and potential support ratio will decline dramatically. A long-term multidimensional program needs to be developed to address the demographic aging.

A New Look at the Asian Fertility Transition (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (4I) ◽  
pp. 385-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Caldwell
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Asian Women ◽  
Population Replacement ◽  
Planning Meeting ◽  
Annual Birth Rate

The significance of the Asian fertility transition can hardly be overestimated. The relatively sanguine view of population growth expressed at the 1994 International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was possible only because of the demographic events in Asia over the last 30 years. In 1965 Asian women were still bearing about six children. Even at current rates, today’s young women will give birth to half as many. This measure, namely the average number of live births over a reproductive lifetime, is called the total fertility rate. It has to be above 2— considerably above if mortality is still high—to achieve long-term population replacement. By 1995 East Asia, taken as a whole, exhibited a total fertility rate of 1.9. Elsewhere, Singapore was below long-term replacement, Thailand had just achieved it, and Sri Lanka was only a little above. The role of Asia in the global fertility transition is shown by estimates I made a few years ago for a World Bank Planning Meeting covering the first quarter of a century of the Asian transition [Caldwell (1993), p. 300]. Between 1965 and 1988 the world’s annual birth rate fell by 22 percent. In 1988 there would have been 40 million more births if there had been no decline from 1965 fertility levels. Of that total decline in the world’s births, almost 80 percent had been contributed by Asia, compared with only 10 percent by Latin America, nothing by Africa, and, unexpectedly, 10 percent by the high-income countries of the West. Indeed, 60 percent of the decline was produced by two countries, China and India, even though they constitute only 38 percent of the world’s population. They accounted, between them, for over threequarters of Asia’s fall in births.

Strengthening of occupational health promotion by the German Prevention Health Care Act

2019 ◽  
pp. 188-190
Author(s):  
Diana Hart
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Health Promotion ◽  
Primary Prevention ◽  
Occupational Health ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Occupational Health Promotion ◽  
And Control

All countries are faced with the problem of the prevention and control of non-communicable diseases (NCD): implement prevention strategies eff ectively, keep up the momentum with long term benefi ts at the individual and the population level, at the same time tackling hea lth inequalities. Th e aff ordability of therapy and care including innovative therapies is going to be one of the key public health priorities in the years to come. Germany has taken in the prevention and control of NCDs. Germany’s health system has a long history of guaranteeing access to high-quality treatment through universal health care coverage. Th r ough their membership people are entitled to prevention and care services maintaining and restoring their health as well as long term follow-up. Like in many other countries general life expectancy has been increasing steadily in Germany. Currently, the average life expectancy is 83 and 79 years in women and men, respectively. Th e other side of the coin is that population aging is strongly associated with a growing burden of disease from NCDs. Already over 70 percent of all deaths in Germany are caused by four disease entities: cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes. Th ese diseases all share four common risk factors: smoking, alcohol abuse, lack of physical activity and overweight. At the same time, more and more people become long term survivors of disease due to improved therapy and care. Th e German Government and public health decision makers are aware of the need for action and have responded by initiating and implementing a wide spectrum of activities. One instrument by strengthening primary prevention is the Prevention Health Care Act. Its overarching aim is to prevent NCDs before they can manifest themselves by strengthening primary prevention and health promotion in diff erent sett ings. One of the main emphasis of the Prevention Health Care Act is the occupational health promotion at the workplace.

scholarly journals Reliance on long-term care as a “new” social risk in national and EU law

2020 ◽  
Vol 123 ◽  
pp. 87-101
Author(s):  
Grega Strban ◽  
Sara Bagari
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Social Risk ◽  
Eu Law ◽  
Term Care ◽  
The Social ◽  
Different Parts ◽  
The Eu

There have always been people who cannot take care of their daily needs and are reliant on care. However, due to higher life expectancy and low birth rates, changes in lifestyle and increased mobility, reliance on long-term care is becoming a general risk in life. Therefore, it must be provided with social protection. In this respect, the criteria for shaping the (new) social risk of reliance on long-term care are also fulfilled. Although different benefits are already provided within different parts of the social security system, the paper discusses that the best option is to define reliance on long-term care as an independent social risk. Furthermore, we must ensure that providing long-term care will not turn out to be a double social risk. The issue has to be addressed at the national and at the EU level.

Adolescent HIV and infection

2018 ◽  
pp. 74-77
Author(s):  
Rashida Ferrand
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Chronic Infections ◽  
Major Barrier ◽  
The Social ◽  
Health Programmes

Infectious diseases remain the leading cause of death in adolescents despite the improvements in public health that have occurred in the past decades. While mortality rates from infections are slowly declining in this age group, an exception is HIV, with HIV-related deaths having tripled in the last decade. As with other infections, the risk of acquiring HIV is partly explained by the biological and physical environment. However, the biological changes and the social and behavioural context of adolescence play an important role in determining risk. Notably, infections can result in long-term complications and consequent disability. While effective methods to prevent and treat many common infections do exist, the major challenges are to make these accessible to adolescents, an age-group that is often neglected by health programmes. In addition, adherence to treatment for chronic infections such as HIV, remains a major barrier to ensuring successful outcomes.

Exploring the Relationship between ICTs and Public Health at Country Level

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viju Raghupathi ◽  
Wullianallur Raghupathi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Child Immunization ◽  
The Public ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Public Health Indicators ◽  
The Relationship

The authors use a health analytics approach to investigate the relationship between information and communication technology (ICT) and public health at a country level. The research uses the ICT factors of accessibility, usage, quality, affordability, trade, and applications, as well as the public delivery indicators of adolescent fertility rate, child immunization for DPT, child immunization for measles, tuberculosis detection rate, life expectancy, adult female mortality rate, and adult male mortality rate. ICT data was collected from the International Telecommunication Union ICT Indicator database. The public health data was collected from the World Bank website. Results of the analytics indicate that ICT factors are positively associated with some public health indicators. Nearly all of the ICT factors are positively associated with the public health indicators of immunization rates, TB detection rates, and life expectancy. The association with adult mortality is negative, which is also favorable. However, the association of ICT with fertility rate is negative, which is an unfavorable effect. These results offer insight into the importance of understanding the positive and adverse impacts of ICT on public health so as to guide national policy decisions in the future.

scholarly journals Tempo Effects and their Relevance in Demographic Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Luy
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Demographic Analysis ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Adjusted Indicators ◽  
The Right

Demographic period indicators like the total fertility rate or life expectancy are well known since more than a century and until recently there were only minor discussions about their usefulness. This changed with a series of publications by Bongaarts and Feeney (BF) in which they claimed that these indicators are inappropriate for describing current demographic conditions when the average age at childbearing respective death is changing. Therefore, BF proposed alternative tempo-adjusted indicators for such situations which can be very useful for demographic analysis. The still existing scepticism against the BF approach and the general rejection of mortality tempo adjustment in particular have their origin in a set of misunderstandings and misinterpretations of tempo-adjusted indicators. This paper systematically describes the basic idea of tempo effects, how they can distort the commonly used conventional period indicators and how the proposed methods approximate the idea of tempo adjustment, illustrated with empirical data for West Germany. We also summarize the critiques against tempo adjustment and try to put the tempo approach in the right perspective. Finally, the paper strives for providing a better understanding when tempo-adjusted measures should be used as alternative or in addition to the commonly used conventional demographic indicators.

scholarly journals Impact of Demographic Variables on Economic Growth in South Asian Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-58
Author(s):  
Nisar Ahmad ◽  
Sara Nayyab
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The Impact

This study find the impact of demographic variables on economic growth in selected South Asian countries; Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri-Lanka using panel data from 1976 to 2017. Fertility rate and life expectancy are used as demographic variables and GDP is used to indicate the economic growth. Panel unit root tests including Levin-Lin & Chu, Im-Pesaran & Shin, ADF-Fisher χ2, PP-Fisher χ2 are applied to check the stationary of variables. Pedroni and Kao Panel Co-integration are employed to test the co-integration among variables. Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimators are obtained for long run relationship. Results show that total fertility rate and life expectancy have significant impact on economic growth in these four South Asian countries. For example, one unit increase in total fertility rate depresses the economic growth by 0.106 units. However, economic growth is accelerated by 0.196 units due to one year increase in life expectancy.

An Overview of Ethics, Public Health, and Noncommunicable Diseases

2019 ◽  
pp. 487-494
Author(s):  
Brendan Saloner
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Social Equity ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
Lower Income ◽  
The Social ◽  
Alcohol And Other Drugs

This chapter provides an overview of the ethics of noncommunicable diseases, one of the areas of focus in The Oxford Handbook of Public Health Ethics. Key areas of ethics attention include tobacco, alcohol and other drugs, and cancer, which affect populations in higher- and lower-income societies alike. The ability of society to respond to these challenges will have major implications for future gains in global life expectancy. While there exists a strong evidence base for public health intervention, the ability to respond is hindered by political constraints and limited progress on addressing the social inequalities that are often root causes of noncommunicable diseases. A commitment to reducing noncommunicable diseases is likely to advance social equity, and vice versa.

scholarly journals Prediction of neonatal and maternal index based on development and population indicators: a global ecological study

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 101-105
Author(s):  
Abdollahpour Sedigheh ◽  
Miri Hamid Heidarian ◽  
Khadivzadeh Talat
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Neonatal Mortality Rate ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Economic Participation ◽  
Human Capital Index

Introduction: Although worldwide maternal and neonatal mortalities have decreased, but Achieving sustainable development goals remains an unfinished agenda and global challenge. This study aimed to predict neonatal and maternal index based on development and demographic indicators. Methods: In this ecologic study, the dependent variables were Maternal mortality ratio (MMR), Neonatal mortality rate (NMR), and Under 5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) and the independent variables were Gender gap index (GGI) and its four components, human development, life expectancy, total fertility rate, and population growth. Data conducted using international secondary data published data bases of health metrics from 2016 to 2018 in 149 countries from WHO (World Health Organization), World Economic Forum, UNICEF (United Nations Children's Fund), and UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). Data analysis was performed using correlation model in Stata version 14.1 software. Results: In this study, economic participation and total fertility rate are positively and educational attainment, Human Capital Index and life expectancy are negatively associated with MMR. Human Capital Index, Educational attainment, and Life expectancy are negatively associated with NMR. Economic participation and total fertility rate are positively and educational attainment, Human Capital Index and life expectancy are negatively associated with U5MR. Discussion: To reduce the maternal and neonatal mortality rate, it is important to pay attention to indirect causes such as equal conditions for men and women to demographic and population indices such as economic participation, educational attainment, Human Capital Index and life expectancy.

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