The impact of first and second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in society: comparative analysis to support control measures to cope with negative effects of future infectious diseases

France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.

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Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph16152799 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (15) ◽

pp. 2799 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Mohd Danish Khan ◽

Hong Ha Thi Vu ◽

Quang Tuan Lai ◽

Ji Whan Ahn

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Strong Relationship ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Control Measures ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Human Beings ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector’s growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.

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COVID19 is a seasonal climate-driven disease across both hemispheres

10.1101/2020.12.16.20248310 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Alejandro Fontal ◽

Menno J. Bouma ◽

Adrià San José ◽

Mercedes Pascual ◽

Xavier Rodó

Keyword(s):

Population Dynamics ◽

Low Temperature ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Absolute Humidity ◽

Control Measures ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Climatic Drivers ◽

Effects Of Temperature ◽

Second Wave

The role of climate in the population dynamics of COVID-19 remains poorly understood, and a true seasonal signature has remained elusive. Data from both hemispheres and the second wave provide opportunities to further examine climatic drivers. With a statistical method designed to detect transitory associations, we show consistent negative effects of temperature and absolute humidity at large spatial scales. At finer spatial resolutions we substantiate these connections during the seasonal rise and fall of COVID-19. Strong disease responses are identified between 12-18°C for Temperature and 4-12 g/m3 for Absolute Humidity. These results classify COVID-19 as a seasonal low-temperature infection, and point to the airborne pathway as an important contribution to transmission for SARS-CoV-2, with implications for control measures we discuss.

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THE IMPACT OF LOCKDOWN ON PUBLIC HEALTH DURING THE FIRST WAVE OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC: LESSONS LEARNED FOR DESIGNING EFFECTIVE CONTAINMENT MEASURES TO COPE WITH SECOND WAVE

10.1101/2020.10.22.20217695 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Mario Coccia

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Social Issues ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Global Pandemic ◽

Containment Measures ◽

The Impact ◽

Second Wave

AbstractWhat is hardly known in the studies of the COVID-19 global pandemic crisis is the impact of general lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic both public health and economic system. The main goal of this study is a comparative analysis of some European countries with a longer and shorter period of national lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 from March to August 2020. Findings suggests that: a) countries with shorter period of lockdown have a variation of confirmed cases/population (%) higher than countries with longer period of lockdown; b) countries with shorter period of lockdown have average fatality rate (5.45%) lower than countries with longer period of lockdown (12.70%), whereas variation of fatality rate from August to March 2020 suggests a higher reduction in countries with longer period of lockdown (−1.9% vs 0.72%). However, Independent Samples Test and the Mann-Whitney test reveal that the effectiveness of longer period of lockdown versus shorter one on public health is not significant. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic associated with longer period of lockdown has a higher negative impact on economic growth with consequential social issues in countries. Results of the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on public health and economies of some leading countries in Europe, during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, can provide vital information to design effective containment strategies in future waves of this pandemic to minimize the negative effects in society.

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Biocidal Resistance in Clinically Relevant Microbial Species: A Major Public Health Risk

Pathogens ◽

10.3390/pathogens10050598 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 598

Author(s):

Elaine Meade ◽

Mark Anthony Slattery ◽

Mary Garvey

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Antimicrobial Resistance ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

Action Plan ◽

Multidrug Resistant ◽

Fungal Species ◽

Control Measures ◽

Microbial Species ◽

The Impact

Antimicrobial resistance is one of the greatest dangers to public health of the 21st century, threatening the treatment and prevention of infectious diseases globally. Disinfection, the elimination of microbial species via the application of biocidal chemicals, is essential to control infectious diseases and safeguard animal and human health. In an era of antimicrobial resistance and emerging disease, the effective application of biocidal control measures is vital to protect public health. The COVID-19 pandemic is an example of the increasing demand for effective biocidal solutions to reduce and eliminate disease transmission. However, there is increasing recognition into the relationship between biocide use and the proliferation of Antimicrobial Resistance species, particularly multidrug-resistant pathogens. The One Health approach and WHO action plan to combat AMR require active surveillance and monitoring of AMR species; however, biocidal resistance is often overlooked. ESKAPE (Enterococcus faecium, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Enterobacter species) pathogens and numerous fungal species have demonstrated drug and biocidal resistance where increased patient mortality is a risk. Currently, there is a lack of information on the impact of biocide application on environmental habitats and ecosystems. Undoubtedly, the excessive application of disinfectants and AMR will merge to result in secondary disasters relating to soil infertility, loss of biodiversity and destruction of ecosystems.

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Understanding how communities respond to COVID-19: experiences from the Orthodox Jewish communities of Antwerp city

International Journal for Equity in Health ◽

10.1186/s12939-021-01417-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Jef Vanhamel ◽

Marie Meudec ◽

Ella Van Landeghem ◽

Maya Ronse ◽

Charlotte Gryseels ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Community Involvement ◽

Qualitative Interviews ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Control Measures ◽

Community Advisory Board ◽

Orthodox Jewish ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Jewish Communities ◽

Active Involvement ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background The importance of community involvement in the response against disease outbreaks has been well established. However, we lack insights into local communities’ experiences in coping with the current COVID-19 pandemic. This study explored both the impact of, and response to, COVID-19 within the Orthodox Jewish communities of Antwerp (Belgium) during the first lockdown period (March 2020 – May 2020). Methods We conducted an explorative qualitative study using a participatory approach. First, we performed a community mapping to identify relevant stakeholders. Through the active involvement of a community advisory board and based on qualitative interviews with key-informants and community members, we elicited lived experiences, attitudes, and perceptions towards COVID-19. Interviews were conducted both face-to-face and using online web conferencing technology. Data were analyzed inductively according to the principles of thematic analysis. Results Government-issued outbreak control measures presented context-specific challenges to the Orthodox Jewish communities in Antwerp. They related mainly to the remote organization of religious life, and practicing physical distancing in socially and culturally strongly connected communities. Existing community resources were rapidly mobilized to adapt to the outbreak and to self-organize response initiatives within communities. The active involvement of community and religious leaders in risk communication proved to be of great importance to facilitate the coverage and uptake of pandemic control measures while protecting essential community values and traditions. Creating bottom-up and community-adapted communication strategies, including addressing language barriers and involving Rabbis in the dissemination of prevention messages, fostered a feeling of trust in government’s response measures. However, unmet information and prevention needs were also identified, such as the need for inclusive communication by public authorities and the need to mitigate the negative effects of stigmatization. Conclusion The experiences of Orthodox Jewish communities in Antwerp demonstrate a valuable example of a feasible community-centered approach to health emergencies. Increasing the engagement of communities in local decision-making and governance structures remains a key strategy to respond to unmet information and prevention needs.

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Impact of Social Distancing on COVID-19 and Other Related Infectious Disease Transmission: A Systematic Review

Open Access Macedonian Journal of Medical Sciences ◽

10.3889/oamjms.2021.7374 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (F) ◽

pp. 601-607

Author(s):

Nor Rumaizah Mohd Nordin ◽

Fadly Syah Arsad ◽

Puteri Sofia Nadira Megat Kamaruddin ◽

Muhammad Hilmi ◽

Mohd Faizal Madrim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

South Korea ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

Research Question ◽

Control Measures ◽

Physical Contact ◽

Infectious Disease Transmission ◽

Social Distancing ◽

The Impact

Background Similar to other coronaviruses, COVID-19 is transmitted mainly by droplets and is highly transmissible through close proximity or physical contact with an infected person. Countries across the globe have implemented public health control measures to prevent onwards transmission and reduce burden on health care settings. Social or physical distancing was found to be one of appropriate measure based on previous experience with epidemic and pandemic contagious diseases. This study aims to review the latest evidence of the impact of social or physical distancing implemented during COVID-19 pandemic towards COVID-19 and other related infectious disease transmission. Methodology The study uses PRISMA review protocol and formulation of research question was based on PICO. The selected databases include Ovid MEDLINE and Scopus. Thorough identification, screening and eligibility process were done, revealed selected 8 articles. The articles then ranked in quality through MMAT. Results A total of eight papers included in this analysis. Five studies (USA, Canada, South Korea and the United Kingdom) showed physical distancing had resulted in a reduction in Covid-19 transmission. In comparison, three other studies (Australia, South Korea and Finland) showed a similar decline on other infectious diseases (Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), other sexually transmitted infections (STI), Influenza, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and Vaccine-Preventive Disease (VPD). The degree of the distancing policy implemented differ between strict and lenient, with both result in effectiveness in reducing transmission of infectious disease. Conclusion Physical or social distancing may come in the form of extreme or lenient measure in effectively containing contagious disease like COVID-19, however the stricter the measure will give more proportionate impact towards the economy, education, mental health issues, morbidity and mortality of non-COVID-19 diseases. Since we need this measure to ensure the reduction of infectious diseases transmission in order to help flattening the curve which allow much needed time for healthcare system to prepare adequately to response, ‘Precision physical distancing” can be implemented which will have more benefit towards the survival of the community as a whole.

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How Do Economic Fluctuations Affect the Mortality of Infectious Diseases?

Frontiers in Public Health ◽

10.3389/fpubh.2021.678213 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Ting-Ting Sun ◽

Ran Tao ◽

Chi-Wei Su ◽

Muhammad Umar

Keyword(s):

Infectious Diseases ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Economic Fluctuations ◽

Economic Conditions ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Vector Autoregression Model ◽

Effective Strategies ◽

The Business Cycle ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

This paper uses the mixed frequency vector autoregression model to explore the impact of economic fluctuations on infectious diseases mortality (IDM) from China perspective. We find that quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations have a negative impact on the annual IDM, indicating that the mortality of infectious diseases varies counter-cyclically with the business cycle in China. Specifically, IDM usually increases with deterioration in economic conditions, and vice versa. The empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis I derived from the theoretical analysis, which highlights that economic fluctuations can negatively affect the mortality of infectious diseases. The findings can offer revelations for the government to consider the role of economic conditions in controlling the epidemic of infectious diseases. Policymakers should adopt appropriate and effective strategies to mitigate the potential negative effects of macroeconomic downturns on the mortality of infectious diseases. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, these analyses further emphasize the importance of promoting economic growth, increasing public health expenditure, and preventing and controlling foreign infectious diseases.

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Effects of worldwide interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 between waves and countries

10.21203/rs.3.rs-396989/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yong Ge ◽

Wenbin Zhang ◽

Haiyan Liu ◽

Corrine W Ruktanonchai ◽

Maogui Hu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infectious Diseases ◽

Large Scale ◽

International Travel ◽

Spatiotemporal Variations ◽

School Closures ◽

Vaccination Strategies ◽

Travel Restrictions ◽

The Impact ◽

Second Wave ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Worldwide governments have rapidly deployed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, together with the large-scale rollout of vaccines since late 2020. However, the effect of these individual NPI and vaccination measures across space and time has not been sufficiently explored. By the decay ratio in the suppression of COVID-19 infections, we investigated the performance of different NPIs across waves in 133 countries, and their integration with vaccine rollouts in 63 countries as of 25 March 2021. The most effective NPIs were gathering restrictions (contributing 27.83% in the infection rate reductions), facial coverings (16.79%) and school closures (10.08%) in the first wave, and changed to facial coverings (30.04%), gathering restrictions (17.51%) and international travel restrictions (9.22%) in the second wave. The impact of NPIs had obvious spatiotemporal variations across countries by waves before vaccine rollouts, with facial coverings being one of the most effective measures consistently. Vaccinations had gradually contributed to the suppression of COVID-19 transmission, from 0.71% and 0.86% within 15 days and 30 days since Day 12 after vaccination, to 1.23% as of 25 March 2021, while NPIs still dominated the pandemic mitigation. Our findings have important implications for continued tailoring of integrated NPI or NPI-vaccination strategies against future COVID-19 waves or similar infectious diseases.

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