Measuring Pro-North Korean sentiment in South Korea during the Kim Jong-il Era

2014 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-178
Author(s):  
David A. Owen
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Common Ancestry ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Region I ◽  
Kim Jong Il ◽  
Southwest Region ◽  
Positive Sentiment

This study analyzes recent claims regarding positive sentiment towards North Korea among South Koreans using cross-sectional public opinion data from the 2004 and 2006 waves of the Asian Barometer. Pro-North Korean sentiments are proposed to be highest among those who feel a stronger sense of common ancestry and language with North Koreans, the wealthy, the younger, those who trust NGOs, those in Seoul and those in the southwest region. I use ordered logistical regression to test hypotheses derived from these propositions. I find support for the southwest hypothesis, though the percentage of South Koreans with these sentiments is actually very low. The results have important implications for relations on the Korean Peninsula and the study of North Korean politics.

Tide turns in favour of South Korea’s conservatives

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type

Subject Politics in South Korea. Significance President Moon Jae-in has hailed the second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump due to be held in Hanoi on February 27-28 as a “remarkable breakthrough” for peace on the Korean peninsula. Moon hopes the meeting will lead to an easing of sanctions on Pyongyang, enabling inter-Korean cooperation such as the relinking of roads and railways to progress, and that this will boost his waning popularity. Impacts US pressure on Seoul to pay more for US troops in South Korea may stoke anti-US sentiment. Rising tensions with Japan will ultimately cause problems for both countries, and their currently indifferent US ally. Pinning hopes on the unpredictable Kim and Trump is risky; failure with North Korea would galvanise the conservatives.

Coercion or Engagement? A Quantitative Test of the Effect of Regional Actors on North Korean Behaviour 1990–2000

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme A. M. Davies
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Small Error ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Kim Il Sung ◽  
The North ◽  
Behavioural Patterns ◽  
Kim Jong Il ◽  
The Us

The Korean peninsula is one of the most dangerous places on the planet. Decisions relating to the peninsula are for high stakes, and one small error can potentially result in an enormously destructive war. This article seeks to assess whether strategies of engagement or coercion can improve the chances of North Korea co-operating with either the US or South Korea. Using Vector Autoregression (VAR) techniques I assess the behavioural patterns of the North Korean regime in response to the actions of the states involved in the six-party talks between 1990 and 2000. The article finds that there were dramatic differences between the negotiating strategies employed by both Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in their dealings with both the US and South Korea. The results suggest that, in being able to manipulate US foreign policy, the North Koreans are punching well above their weight and that the chances of a meaningful settlement with the regime of Kim Jong Il are very small.

scholarly journals The Effect of US Foreign Policy on the Relationship Between South and North Korea: Time Series Analysis of the Post-Cold War Era

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 255-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jong-Han Yoon
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Behavior Pattern ◽  
The United States ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Triangular Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

In this study, I examine the effect of US foreign policy on the relationship between South Korea and North Korea. In particular, I analyze whether two different foreign policy approaches—the hard-line approach and the soft-line approach—have played a role in advancing or slowing steps toward peace in the Korean peninsula. I use the Integrated Data for Events Analysis dataset for the period 1990–2004. By employing a Vector Autoregression model, which analyzes the behavioral patterns of South and North Korea and the United States, I find that US foreign policy affects the relationship between the two Koreas by affecting North Korea's behavior toward South Korea. The triangular relationship among the United States, North Korea, and South Korea shows a reciprocal behavior pattern. This finding suggests that a soft-line and reciprocal US foreign policy toward North Korea is critical to maintaining peace in the Korean peninsula.

scholarly journals Disaster Diplomacy of South Korea toward North Korea as Efforts to Create Peace in the Korean Peninsula (2017 – 2020)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 140-152
Author(s):  
Muhammad Fawwaz Syafiq Rizqullah ◽  
Luna Tristofa ◽  
Devia Farida Ramadhanti
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Positive Peace ◽  
The Cold War

This paper aims to analyze the reason why South Korea as a North Korea rival in the Koreanpeninsula willing to give aid toward North Korea. The tension in Korean peninsula has happened since a long time ago especially after the cold war between USA & USSR. The conflict event become worst because of North Korea always threatening South Korea by testing the Nuclear missile. Despite of what North Korea done in the region, South Korea still gave abundance of aid in term of health assistance, food, and others basis of human necessity. By using qualitative approach and collecting data from credible literature resource and using the concept of disaster diplomacy this research found that South Korea has special type in term of conflict resolution, South Korea often using soft diplomacy and negotiation in order to creating peace. South Korea also believe positive peace diplomacy should be implementing in order make better condition in Korean peninsula. This research also believe that the actor has a big impact in successfully to support better condition between both countries and strengthening the relation. Lastly, this paper proof if in order to win in some competition not always using hard diplomacy or military power.

scholarly journals Russia and the Issues of the Korean Peninsula

2014 ◽  
pp. 82-91
Author(s):  
G. D. Toloraya
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Far East ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Electricity Grid ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Security Guarantees

The importance of Korean Peninsula in Russian foreign strategy is based on the need to preserve peace and stability in the Russia's Far East "soft underbelly" and to be a part of international efforts to solve the Korean problem, as well as to promote regional economic cooperation. In 1990-s Russia's position on the peninsula weakened, mainly because of the rupture of ties with North Korea, while relations with South Korea were reactive in nature. Rebalancing relations with the two Koreas in 2000-s increased Russia's involvement into Korean settlement, including the 6- party format. Russia/s relations with North Korea are now based on good neighborhood principle, however, they are far from idyllic as Russia disapproves of Pyongyang's behavior, especially its nuclear and missile activities. However to influence the situation more Russia should deepen its ties with the current Pyongyang leadership regardless of how irritating its behavior might be. Relations with the ROK are aimed at becoming strategic, but in reality are limited due to ROK's alliance with the USA. However South Korea has become the third most important economic partner in Asia. Russia is especially interested in three- party projects, such as Trans-Korean railroad (linked to Transsiberan transit way), gas pipeline and electricity grid. However implementation of these project is negatively influenced by the tensions in Korean peninsula. It can be solved only by multilateral efforts for comprehensive solution combining security guarantees for North Korea and its abandonment of nuclear option.

Lopsided Security on the Korean Peninsula

Asian Survey ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Kil Joo Ban
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Gray Zone ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
The North ◽  
Conventional Weapons

North Korea’s asymmetric provocations over the last decades can be classified into two periods: tactical provocations at sea in 1970–1990 and strategic (nuclear) provocations in 2000–2020. What is the logic underlying the North Korean imbroglio? And how does the former period differ from the latter? The first set of provocations was intended to shift the threat imbalance caused by a widening gap in conventional military capabilities into a balance of insecurity, where the weaker North Korean side faced South Korea and the combined ROK–US forces. The second set was intended to shift the balance of insecurity into an imbalance of terror while ensuring that only Pyongyang would be armed with nuclear weapons in the area. The “gray zone” discourse of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (rather than North Korea) ended up bolstering North Korea’s nuclear program, while South Korea intensified only its conventional weapons program.

Joint Military Exercises and Crisis Dynamics on the Korean Peninsula

2020 ◽  
pp. 002200272097218
Author(s):  
Jordan Bernhardt ◽  
Lauren Sukin
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Military Exercises ◽  
Nuclear Tests ◽  
Costly Signals

A number of proposals for reducing tensions with North Korea have discussed alterations to the program of joint military exercises (JMEs) that South Korea holds. North Korea has also repeatedly called for a reduction or secession of JMEs. Would limiting or halting JMEs be a useful concession for securing a reduction of tensions on the peninsula? We argue that JMEs do not deter North Korea but, instead, provoke provocative rhetoric and actions, demonstrating that North Korea views JMEs as a serious threat to its security. In this paper, we establish a relationship between JMEs and North Korea’s actions. In response to a JME, North Korea can issue warnings or threats as well as take costly signals such as conducting missile or nuclear tests. Using new data on JMEs and North Korean behavior, we find that North Korea systematically responds with aggression to South Korean JMEs. Moreover, we find that the intensity of North Korea’s responses to JMEs is driven by the severity of the threat particular exercises pose, indicating that North Korea responds to JMEs as serious security threats.

scholarly journals The Nuclear Problem of the Korean Peninsula: Is There a Way of Ending the Deadlock?

2015 ◽  
pp. 182-193
Author(s):  
V. Denisov
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Mutual Understanding ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
The Past ◽  
Reasonable Solution ◽  
Nuclear Problem ◽  
The Usa ◽  
North And South

The nuclear problem of the Korean peninsula remains unsolved, tensions continuing for the past five years. The mechanism of the Six-Party Talks in which Russia, China, the USA, Japan, North and South Korea took part, is inactive, while each party develops its own strategy to counteract the new nuclear program of North Korea. Such an approach stimulates further escalation in the region, because there is no mutual understanding of North Korea nuclear status. In addition there exist a number of contradictions between the members of Six-Party Talks, each of them trying to resolve North Korean issue pursuing their own interests. However, in the current situation a peaceful resolution of the problem is still possible. Moreover, it is the only reasonable solution.

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