TERRITORIAL RISK CLASSIFICATION USING SPATIALLY DEPENDENT FREQUENCY-SEVERITY MODELS

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 437-465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Shi ◽  
Kun Shi

AbstractIn non-life insurance, territory-based risk classification is useful for various insurance operations including marketing, underwriting, ratemaking, etc. This paper proposes a spatially dependent frequency-severity modeling framework to produce territorial risk scores. The framework applies to the aggregated insurance claims where the frequency and severity components examine the occurrence rate and average size of insurance claims in each geographic unit, respectively. We employ the bivariate conditional autoregressive models to accommodate the spatial dependency in the frequency and severity components, as well as the cross-sectional association between the two components. Using a town-level claims data of automobile insurance in Massachusetts, we demonstrate applications of the model output–territorial risk scores–in ratemaking and market segmentation.

ABSTRACT Using cross-sectional data of 245 smallholder rural dairy farmers and propensity score matching, the present study attempted to estimate the treatment effect of changing the breed of cattle (indigenous to crossbred) on changes in labour use in Assam. The analysis indicated that crossbred cattle adopters had higher herd sizes, access to extension services, membership of dairy cooperative society (DCS) and the majority of them are beneficiary of government dairy development programme. The estimation results show that crossbred cattle adopters had significantly higher labour use for selected dairy farming operations. This points out that there was a higher employment prospect in the adoption of crossbred cattle. Additionally, the study pointed out that crossbred cattle adoption was associated with higher employment effect on small to average size farms and farm households with literate farmers. The findings of the study recommend that there is a need for adequate diffusion of breeding technology such as artificial insemination (AI) or deployment of pure-breed exotic bulls in not so easily accessible areas to facilitate the small and medium farmers with crossbred cattle adoption for generating employment along with augmenting productivity and income.


2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-110
Author(s):  
Gina Botnariu ◽  
Norina Forna ◽  
Alina Popa ◽  
Raluca Popescu ◽  
Alina Onofriescu ◽  
...  

To assess the correlation between main parameters of glycemic control and cardiovascular risk scores in non-diabetic persons. Risk scores were calculated by using the University of Edinburgh Risk Calculator. Risk scores are used to estimate the probability of cardiovascular disease in individuals who have not already developed major atherosclerotic disease. We correlated the results of these scores with the parameters that describes the glycaemic profile: preprandial glicaemia, HbA1c and 1 hour and 2 h post-prandial glycaemia, determined during Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT).Both fasting glycaemia and HbA1c significantly correlated with cardiovascular risk scores calculated for a period of 10 years. The recorded post-prandial glycaemic values at 1h and 2h after glucose loading didn�t significantly correlate with calculated scores, in the study group. The observed correlations underline the importance of glycaemia in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular diseases.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 955
Author(s):  
Ovidiu Mitu ◽  
Adrian Crisan ◽  
Simon Redwood ◽  
Ioan-Elian Cazacu-Davidescu ◽  
Ivona Mitu ◽  
...  

Background: The current cardiovascular disease (CVD) primary prevention guidelines prioritize risk stratification by using clinical risk scores. However, subclinical atherosclerosis may rest long term undetected. This study aimed to evaluate multiple subclinical atherosclerosis parameters in relation to several CV risk scores in asymptomatic individuals. Methods: A cross-sectional, single-center study included 120 asymptomatic CVD subjects. Four CVD risk scores were computed: SCORE, Framingham, QRISK, and PROCAM. Subclinical atherosclerosis has been determined by carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), pulse wave velocity (PWV), aortic and brachial augmentation indexes (AIXAo, respectively AIXbr), aortic systolic blood pressure (SBPao), and ankle-brachial index (ABI). Results: The mean age was 52.01 ± 10.73 years. For cIMT—SCORE was more sensitive; for PWV—Framingham score was more sensitive; for AIXbr—QRISK and PROCAM were more sensitive while for AIXao—QRISK presented better results. As for SBPao—SCORE presented more sensitive results. However, ABI did not correlate with any CVD risk score. Conclusions: All four CV risk scores are associated with markers of subclinical atherosclerosis in asymptomatic population, except for ABI, with specific particularities for each CVD risk score. Moreover, we propose specific cut-off values of CV risk scores that may indicate the need for subclinical atherosclerosis assessment.


Author(s):  
Rosy Oh ◽  
Joseph H.T. Kim ◽  
Jae Youn Ahn

In the auto insurance industry, a Bonus-Malus System (BMS) is commonly used as a posteriori risk classification mechanism to set the premium for the next contract period based on a policyholder's claim history. Even though the recent literature reports evidence of a significant dependence between frequency and severity, the current BMS practice is to use a frequency-based transition rule while ignoring severity information. Although Oh et al. [(2020). Bonus-Malus premiums under the dependent frequency-severity modeling. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 2020(3): 172–195] claimed that the frequency-driven BMS transition rule can accommodate the dependence between frequency and severity, their proposal is only a partial solution, as the transition rule still completely ignores the claim severity and is unable to penalize large claims. In this study, we propose to use the BMS with a transition rule based on both frequency and size of claim, based on the bivariate random effect model, which conveniently allows dependence between frequency and severity. We analytically derive the optimal relativities under the proposed BMS framework and show that the proposed BMS outperforms the existing frequency-driven BMS. Later, numerical experiments are also provided using both hypothetical and actual datasets in order to assess the effect of various dependencies on the BMS risk classification and confirm our theoretical findings.


2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahito Okura ◽  
Takuya Yoshizawa ◽  
Motohiro Sakaki

AbstractThe purpose of this research is to evaluate the new Japanese Bonus–Malus System (BMS 2012) in automobile insurance, which is an unusual system wherein both no-claim and claimed subclasses exist. To evaluate BMS 2012, we conduct a simulation analysis and compare BMS 2012 with the former Japanese BMS (BMS 2009) in terms of the present value of the total insurance premium that is closely related to the frequency of insurance claims. Based on the comparison, our main conclusion is that BMS 2012 offers more effects to lower the frequency of insurance claims than BMS 2009 does when the policyholders’ classes in BMS are high classes that evaluate as safety drivers, time discount and/or renewal rates are relatively low, and the policyholders’ risk averseness is large.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hang Zeng ◽  
Inge Van Damme ◽  
Teresia Wanjiru Kabi ◽  
Barbara Šoba ◽  
Sarah Gabriël

Abstract Background Sarcocystis species are obligatorily heteroxenous parasites, of which some are zoonotic, representing a public health and economic impact. This study investigated the occurrence of Sarcocystis spp. in cattle sampled from a Belgian slaughterhouse. Methods A total of 200 carcasses were included in the study, sampled during 10 sampling days. The sedimentation method was applied to isolate the sarcocysts from both heart and diaphragm muscles collected from each carcass. Multiplex PCR, PCR–RFLP as well as cox1 gene sequencing techniques were applied serially on collected sarcocysts for species identification. Results Sarcocystis spp. were detected in 64% (128/200; 95% CI 57–71%) of the sampled carcasses. Female dairy cattle presented the highest Sarcocystis occurrence rate (91%) as well as the highest Sarcocystis species diversity compared to female beef and male beef. Sarcocystis spp. were detected more often in the heart muscles than in the diaphragm among female beef (p < 0.001) and dairy carcasses (p = 0.001), while in male carcasses no significant difference was observed (p = 0.763). The effect of age was not significant in male carcasses (p = 0.872), while the odds of finding sarcocysts significantly increased with age (p = 0.003) within both types of female carcasses. S. cruzi was the most prevalent species and was found in 56.5% (113/200) of the carcasses, followed by S. hominis (21.0%, 42/200), S. bovifelis (12.5%, 25/200), S. bovini (2.0%, 4/200), S. hirsuta (1.5%, 3/200) and S. heydorni (0.5%, 1/200). Six different species were detected in the diaphragm, while only two species were recovered from the heart. S. cruzi was the most prevalent species in heart, while in the diaphragm, this was S. hominis. Conclusions The detection of S. hominis in 21% of the sampled carcasses presents a potential food safety issue, and further research is warranted into controlling this infection. Graphic Abstract


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuichi Ito ◽  
Tomoko Torii ◽  
Akihiro Nakajima ◽  
Takeshi Iijima ◽  
Hiroshi Murano ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Although gout is rare in children, chronic sustained hyperuricemia can lead to monosodium urate deposits progressing to gout, just as in adults. This study assessed prevalence and characteristics of gout and asymptomatic hyperuricemia, and incidence of gouty arthritis in the pediatric population, using data from Japanese health insurance claims. The diagnosis and treatment of pediatric gout and hyperuricemia were analyzed, and specific characteristics of those patients were assessed. Since Japanese guidelines recommend treatment with uric acid lowering drugs for asymptomatic hyperuricemia as well as for gout, these data were also used to investigate the real-world use of uric acid lowering drugs in a pediatric population. Methods This cross-sectional study was based on a 2016–2017 Japanese health insurance claims database, one of the largest epidemiology claims databases available in Japan, which included 356,790 males and 339,487 females 0–18 years of age. Outcomes were measured for prevalence, patient characteristics, treatment with uric acid lowering drugs for gout and asymptomatic hyperuricemia, and prevalence and incidence of gouty arthritis. Because uric acid can be elevated by some forms of chemotherapy, data from patients under treatment for malignancies were excluded from consideration. Results Total prevalence of gout and asymptomatic hyperuricemia in 0–18 year-olds was 0.040% (276/696,277 patients), with gout prevalence at 0.007% (48/696,277) and asymptomatic hyperuricemia at 0.033% (228/696,277). Prevalence of gout and asymptomatic hyperuricemia was highest in adolescent males, at 0.135% (176/130,823). The most common comorbidities for gout and asymptomatic hyperuricemia were metabolic syndrome at 42.8% (118/276) and kidney disease at 34.8% (96/276). Of the patients diagnosed with gout or asymptomatic hyperuricemia, 35.1% (97/276) were treated with uric acid lowering drugs. Gouty arthritis developed in 43.8% (21/48) of gout patients during the study, at an incidence of 0.65 flares/person-year. Conclusions Even the pediatric population could be affected by asymptomatic hyperuricemia, gout, and gouty arthritis, and uric acid lowering drugs are being used in this population even though those drugs have not been approved for pediatric indications. Such off-label use may indicate a potential need for therapeutic agents in this population. Trial registration UMIN000036029.


Author(s):  
Wandressa Letícia Viveiros ◽  
Meiry Fernanda Pinto Okuno ◽  
Cássia Regina Vancini Campanharo ◽  
Maria Carolina Barbosa Teixeira Lopes ◽  
Gabriella Novelli Oliveira ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Objectives: to correlate risk classification categories with the level of pain of patients in an emergency service. Method: cross-sectional study carried out in the Risk Classification of 611 patients. The variables studied were: age, gender, comorbidities, complaint duration, medical specialty, signs and symptoms, outcome, color attributed in the risk classification of and degree of pain. We used Analysis of Variance, a Chi-Square test and a Likelihood Ratio test. Results: the average age was 42.1 years (17.8); 59.9% were women; the green (58.9%) and yellow (22.7%) risk classification prevailed and hypertension (18.3%) was the most common Comorbidity. The most frequent pain intensity was moderate (25.9%). In the red category, patients presented a higher percentage of absence of pain; in the blue, mild pain; and in the green, yellow and orange categories, there was a greater percentage of intense pain (p < 0.0001). Conclusion: among the patients who presented pain, the majority reported moderate intensity. Regarding risk categories, most patients in the red category did not report pain. Those who were classified as green, yellow and orange, reported mostly intense pain. On the other hand, patients in the blue category reported predominantly mild pain.


2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-51
Author(s):  
Sharadindu Shekhar Roy ◽  
STM Abu Azam ◽  
Md Khalequzzaman ◽  
Mohammad Ullah ◽  
Samir Kumar Kundu ◽  
...  

Background: The superiority of the GRACE and TIMI risk scores in predicting the angiographic severity of coronary artery disease in patients with non ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) has not yet been established. This study was done to compare the GRACE and TIMI risk scores in predicting the angiographic severity of coronary artery disease in this group of patients.Method: The cross sectional study done in the Department of Cardiology, NICVD, Dhaka. The patients admitted with NSTEMI were evaluated to calculate the GRACE and TIMI risk score from April, 2015 to April, 2016.Coronary angiogram was done during index hospitalization and the severity of the coronary artery disease was assessed by vessel score and Gensini score.Results: Of 115 patients assessed, a positive correlation of the vessel score and Gensini score was observed with both the GRACE and TIMI risk scores (p=<0.001) and the GRACE score (r=0.59) correlated better than the TIMI score (r=0.52). The GRACE score presented area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.844(95% CI = 0.774 – 0.914) significantly superior to the area under the ROC curve of 0.752(95% CI =0.658– 0.846) of the TIMI score for the difference between the two scores.Conclusion: Both the GRACE and TIMI scores had good predictive value in predicting the severity of coronary artery disease in the patients with NSTEMI but when both the scores were compared, the GRACE score was found to be superior and correlated better with the severity of coronary artery disease.Cardiovasc. j. 2017; 10(1): 45-51


PLoS Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. e1003782
Author(s):  
Michael Wainberg ◽  
Samuel E. Jones ◽  
Lindsay Melhuish Beaupre ◽  
Sean L. Hill ◽  
Daniel Felsky ◽  
...  

Background Sleep problems are both symptoms of and modifiable risk factors for many psychiatric disorders. Wrist-worn accelerometers enable objective measurement of sleep at scale. Here, we aimed to examine the association of accelerometer-derived sleep measures with psychiatric diagnoses and polygenic risk scores in a large community-based cohort. Methods and findings In this post hoc cross-sectional analysis of the UK Biobank cohort, 10 interpretable sleep measures—bedtime, wake-up time, sleep duration, wake after sleep onset, sleep efficiency, number of awakenings, duration of longest sleep bout, number of naps, and variability in bedtime and sleep duration—were derived from 7-day accelerometry recordings across 89,205 participants (aged 43 to 79, 56% female, 97% self-reported white) taken between 2013 and 2015. These measures were examined for association with lifetime inpatient diagnoses of major depressive disorder, anxiety disorders, bipolar disorder/mania, and schizophrenia spectrum disorders from any time before the date of accelerometry, as well as polygenic risk scores for major depression, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia. Covariates consisted of age and season at the time of the accelerometry recording, sex, Townsend deprivation index (an indicator of socioeconomic status), and the top 10 genotype principal components. We found that sleep pattern differences were ubiquitous across diagnoses: each diagnosis was associated with a median of 8.5 of the 10 accelerometer-derived sleep measures, with measures of sleep quality (for instance, sleep efficiency) generally more affected than mere sleep duration. Effect sizes were generally small: for instance, the largest magnitude effect size across the 4 diagnoses was β = −0.11 (95% confidence interval −0.13 to −0.10, p = 3 × 10−56, FDR = 6 × 10−55) for the association between lifetime inpatient major depressive disorder diagnosis and sleep efficiency. Associations largely replicated across ancestries and sexes, and accelerometry-derived measures were concordant with self-reported sleep properties. Limitations include the use of accelerometer-based sleep measurement and the time lag between psychiatric diagnoses and accelerometry. Conclusions In this study, we observed that sleep pattern differences are a transdiagnostic feature of individuals with lifetime mental illness, suggesting that they should be considered regardless of diagnosis. Accelerometry provides a scalable way to objectively measure sleep properties in psychiatric clinical research and practice, even across tens of thousands of individuals.


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