Revisiting the Resource Curse: Natural Disasters, the Price of Oil, and Democracy

2011 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 507-529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristopher W. Ramsay

AbstractFluctuations in the price of oil and the contemporaneous political changes in oil-producing countries have raised an important question about the link between oil rents, political institutions, and civil liberties. This article presents a simple model of the relationship between resource income and political freedom and, using an instrumental variables approach, estimates the causal effect of shocks to oil revenues on levels of democracy. Using a new data set, multiple measures of democracy, and various specifications, I find that the effect of oil price shocks is larger than might be expected and on the order of the effects found from changes in gross domestic product.

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 619-643
Author(s):  
Scott Pegg

AbstractSomaliland might start producing oil in 2019. Yet, it has done little to prepare for the arrival of oil revenues which could exceed its current annual budget. Although Somaliland has been largely peaceful for two decades and recently inaugurated its fifth president after holding a democratic election, it remains entirely unrecognised. Oil revenues could positively transform Somaliland's fragile political economy, but they also place it at significant risk for a political resource curse that could threaten its democracy, peace and political institutions. Oil to cash or the direct distribution of oil revenues to citizens has been posited as a solution to the political resource curse. Somaliland has many of the elements necessary to make oil to cash work in place. Several factors combine to make Somaliland both potentially receptive to oil to cash and uniquely positioned to benefit from it. Interviews with political elites demonstrate receptiveness to the idea. Sample revenue calculations from other African oil producers highlight just how such a system could work to benefit Somaliland.


Author(s):  
Xiaochun Li ◽  
Changyu Shen

Propensity score–based methods or multiple regressions of the outcome are often used for confounding adjustment in analysis of observational studies. In either approach, a model is needed: A model describing the relationship between the treatment assignment and covariates in the propensity score–based method or a model for the outcome and covariates in the multiple regressions. The 2 models are usually unknown to the investigators and must be estimated. The correct model specification, therefore, is essential for the validity of the final causal estimate. We describe in this article a doubly robust estimator which combines both models propitiously to offer analysts 2 chances for obtaining a valid causal estimate and demonstrate its use through a data set from the Lindner Center Study.


Libri ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-26
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Cunningham

Abstract This study discovers the level of relationship between democracy and access to online information. It defines democracy using freedom ratings from Freedom House, as well as economic factors such as Gross Domestic Product and Foreign Direct Investment. The model also included a data set from Geddes, Wright and Frantz (2012), who used a finer grained scale for autocratic countries. It then explores the relationship between democracy and the level of access to online information using an ordinary least squares regression model. The level of access to online information was defined as the number of the internet users per capita within a country. The strength of the relationship indicated that this definition explained ~57 % of the interaction between these variables. In addition, the civil liberties ranking of a country was determined to have a statistically significant relationship to the number of internet users while the political rights of a country did not have a statistically significant relationship to the number of internet users. By determining this level of relationship, policymakers can then make a more informed decision while deciding on methods to bridge the digital divide. In determining which factors can be adjusted by outside stakeholders, such as access to technology, and those factors which cannot, such as levels of democracy, policymakers can determine methods to increase their impact in narrowing the digital divide.


Author(s):  
Moises Arce ◽  
Adrian Siefkas

The bulk of the existing literature on the resource curse emphasizes the pervasive and negative outcomes that are typically associated with a country’s abundance of natural resources, such as poor governance, low levels of economic development, civil war, and dictatorship. The worldwide correlation between natural resource wealth and autocratic governance is well-known, and scholars have tried to explain this outcome in a variety of ways. One explanation is rentier state theory, which argues that resource wealth inhibits the growth of civil society because resource (oil) rents allow governments to relieve social pressures through a mix of low taxes and patronage spending. Oil rents thus undermine citizens’ motivation to mobilize, demand representation, or hold political leaders accountable. However, while much of the resource curse literature focuses on the adverse effects of oil wealth, oil makes up only one portion of extractive industries. A growing comparative political economy literature focuses on resource extraction (e.g., precious metals like gold and silver; base metals like copper; and energy resources like coal and uranium) and explains why it leads to conflict among local populations, corporations, and national governments. The extraction of these resources has the opposite effect of oil in that it tends to generate political activity as opposed to political apathy or quiescence. By political activity, we mean the different mobilizations and collective action strategies of challengers near the extractive frontier. While the literature treats this political activity as conflict, it is nonetheless distinct from the resource–civil war debate from the resource curse literature. Case studies and quantitative research support the observation that mineral wealth leads to conflict. The quantitative literature examines the variation of resource (mineral) conflicts cross-nationally and subnationally. Some studies have examined the relationship between mineral wealth and conflict; other studies have explored the relationship between geo-referenced extractive areas and conflict. Mineral extraction is different from oil extraction in terms of the labor intensity of extraction processes, the state ownership of the resource, and the amount of revenue each resource generates. Conflicts over mineral wealth can occur at different stages along the commodity chain: the point of resource access (e.g., when agricultural producers and extractive industries clash over land and water use), the extraction stage itself (e.g., when extractive industries are expanded), the processing and transportation of oil and minerals, and the waste management stage (e.g., the failure of tailing dams or oil pipelines). This comparative political economy literature has also begun to explore the consequences of conflicts, which can result in different political interactions between local communities and corporations, the extension of consultation rights as well as other participatory practices at the grassroots level.


Author(s):  
Jack Knight ◽  
James Johnson

Pragmatism and its consequences are central issues in American politics today, yet scholars rarely examine in detail the relationship between pragmatism and politics. This book systematically explores the subject and makes a strong case for adopting a pragmatist approach to democratic politics—and for giving priority to democracy in the process of selecting and reforming political institutions. What is the primary value of democracy? When should we make decisions democratically and when should we rely on markets? And when should we accept the decisions of unelected officials, such as judges or bureaucrats? This book explores how a commitment to pragmatism should affect our answers to such important questions. It concludes that democracy is a good way of determining how these kinds of decisions should be made—even if what the democratic process determines is that not all decisions should be made democratically. So, for example, the democratically elected U.S. Congress may legitimately remove monetary policy from democratic decision-making by putting it under the control of the Federal Reserve. This book argues that pragmatism offers an original and compelling justification of democracy in terms of the unique contributions democratic institutions can make to processes of institutional choice. This focus highlights the important role that democracy plays, not in achieving consensus or commonality, but rather in addressing conflicts. Indeed, the book suggest that democratic politics is perhaps best seen less as a way of reaching consensus or agreement than as a way of structuring the terms of persistent disagreement.


Author(s):  
Johannes Lindvall

This chapter introduces the problem of “reform capacity” (the ability of political decision-makers to adopt and implement policy changes that benefit society as a whole, by adjusting public policies to changing economic, social, and political circumstances). The chapter also reviews the long-standing discussion in political science about the relationship between political institutions and effective government. Furthermore, the chapter explains why the possibility of compensation matters greatly for the politics of reform; provides a precise definition of the concept of reform capacity; describes the book's general approach to this problem; and discusses the ethics of compensating losers from reform; and presents the book's methodological approach.


Author(s):  
Richard Culliford ◽  
Alex J. Cornish ◽  
Philip J. Law ◽  
Susan M. Farrington ◽  
Kimmo Palin ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Epidemiological studies of the relationship between gallstone disease and circulating levels of bilirubin with risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC) have been inconsistent. To address possible confounding and reverse causation, we examine the relationship between these potential risk factors and CRC using Mendelian randomisation (MR). Methods We used two-sample MR to examine the relationship between genetic liability to gallstone disease and circulating levels of bilirubin with CRC in 26,397 patients and 41,481 controls. We calculated the odds ratio per genetically predicted SD unit increase in log bilirubin levels (ORSD) for CRC and tested for a non-zero causal effect of gallstones on CRC. Sensitivity analysis was applied to identify violations of estimator assumptions. Results No association between either gallstone disease (P value = 0.60) or circulating levels of bilirubin (ORSD = 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.96–1.03, P value = 0.90) with CRC was shown. Conclusions Despite the large scale of this study, we found no evidence for a causal relationship between either circulating levels of bilirubin or gallstone disease with risk of developing CRC. While the magnitude of effect suggested by some observational studies can confidently be excluded, we cannot exclude the possibility of smaller effect sizes and non-linear relationships.


2021 ◽  
Vol 99 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 218-219
Author(s):  
Andres Fernando T Russi ◽  
Mike D Tokach ◽  
Jason C Woodworth ◽  
Joel M DeRouchey ◽  
Robert D Goodband ◽  
...  

Abstract The swine industry has been constantly evolving to select animals with improved performance traits and to minimize variation in body weight (BW) in order to meet packer specifications. Therefore, understanding variation presents an opportunity for producers to find strategies that could help reduce, manage, or deal with variation of pigs in a barn. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted by collecting data from multiple studies and available data sets in order to develop prediction equations for coefficient of variation (CV) and standard deviation (SD) as a function of BW. Information regarding BW variation from 16 papers was recorded to provide approximately 204 data points. Together, these data included 117,268 individually weighed pigs with a sample size that ranged from 104 to 4,108 pigs. A random-effects model with study used as a random effect was developed. Observations were weighted using sample size as an estimate for precision on the analysis, where larger data sets accounted for increased accuracy in the model. Regression equations were developed using the nlme package of R to determine the relationship between BW and its variation. Polynomial regression analysis was conducted separately for each variation measurement. When CV was reported in the data set, SD was calculated and vice versa. The resulting prediction equations were: CV (%) = 20.04 – 0.135 × (BW) + 0.00043 × (BW)2, R2=0.79; SD = 0.41 + 0.150 × (BW) - 0.00041 × (BW)2, R2 = 0.95. These equations suggest that there is evidence for a decreasing quadratic relationship between mean CV of a population and BW of pigs whereby the rate of decrease is smaller as mean pig BW increases from birth to market. Conversely, the rate of increase of SD of a population of pigs is smaller as mean pig BW increases from birth to market.


Author(s):  
GRAEME BLAIR ◽  
DARIN CHRISTENSEN ◽  
AARON RUDKIN

Scholars of the resource curse argue that reliance on primary commodities destabilizes governments: price fluctuations generate windfalls or periods of austerity that provoke or intensify civil conflict. Over 350 quantitative studies test this claim, but prominent results point in different directions, making it difficult to discern which results reliably hold across contexts. We conduct a meta-analysis of 46 natural experiments that use difference-in-difference designs to estimate the causal effect of commodity price changes on armed civil conflict. We show that commodity price changes, on average, do not change the likelihood of conflict. However, there are cross-cutting effects by commodity type. In line with theory, we find price increases for labor-intensive agricultural commodities reduce conflict, while increases in the price of oil, a capital-intensive commodity, provoke conflict. We also find that price increases for lootable artisanal minerals provoke conflict. Our meta-analysis consolidates existing evidence, but also highlights opportunities for future research.


Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Basem Ertimi ◽  
Tamat Sarmidi ◽  
Norlin Khalid ◽  
Mohd Helmi Ali

A variety of critical empirical studies are interested in and focused on complex issues related to natural resource management and resource curse, whilst less can be found combining diverse factors that affect the dynamics of this curse and mitigate it. The case study of Norway is used as the benchmark policy framework in oil-rich countries to invest oil revenues and set correct fiscal policies. In this study, an analytical framework was structured to evaluate the coherence of resource management with sustainability as a starting point, contributing to further assessments of how the adaptation of such policies is incorporated in resource management to mitigate the resource curse. The analysis also suggests that oil-rich countries can learn from Norway’s experience to mitigate this resource curse and utilize oil revenues in the interest of the country. In addition, the analysis helps in effective management and the protection of ecological resources as these are becoming an increasingly important strategic part of natural wealth. This study aimed to provide an overarching framework designed to help conceptualize key issues of natural resource management and the resource curse in oil-rich countries and understand the challenges facing those countries in managing the natural resources.


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