scholarly journals Grand challenges for the 21st century: what crop models can and can't (yet) do

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
João Vasco Silva ◽  
Ken E. Giller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Keyword Search ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Crop Modelling ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Grand Challenges ◽  
Pests And Diseases ◽  
The Face

Abstract Crop production is at the core of a ‘perfect storm’ encompassing the grand challenges of achieving food and nutrition security for all, in the face of climate change, while avoiding further conversion of natural habitats for agriculture and loss of biodiversity. Here, we explore current trends in crop modelling related to these grand challenges by reflecting on research presented at the Second International Crop Modelling Symposium (iCropM2020). A keyword search in the book of abstracts of the symposium revealed a strong focus on ‘climate change’, ‘adaptation’ and ‘impact assessment’ and much less on ‘food security’ or ‘policy’. Most research focused on field-level investigations and far fewer on farm(ing) systems levels – the levels at which management decisions are made by farmers. Experimentation is key to development and testing of crop models, yet the term ‘simulation’ outweighed by far the terms ‘experiments’ and ‘trials’, and few contributions dealt with model improvement. Cereals are intensively researched, whereas roots, tubers and tropical perennials are under-researched. Little attention is paid to nutrient limitations apart from nitrogen or to pests and diseases. The aforementioned aspects represent opportunities for future research where crop models can help in devising hypotheses and driving new experimentation. We must also ensure that crop models are fit for their intended purposes, especially if they are to provide advice to policymakers. The latter, together with cross-scale and interdisciplinary efforts with direct engagement of stakeholders are needed to address the grand challenges faced by food and agricultural systems in the next century.

scholarly journals Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 °C warmer climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (47) ◽  
pp. 29526-29534
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Rosa ◽  
Davide Danilo Chiarelli ◽  
Matteo Sangiorgio ◽  
Areidy Aracely Beltran-Peña ◽  
Maria Cristina Rulli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Irrigation Water Demand ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Sustainable Irrigation

Climate change is expected to affect crop production worldwide, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions. It is still unknown how irrigation water needs will change in a warmer planet and where freshwater will be locally available to expand irrigation without depleting freshwater resources. Here, we identify the rain-fed cropping systems that hold the greatest potential for investment in irrigation expansion because water will likely be available to suffice irrigation water demand. Using projections of renewable water availability and irrigation water demand under warming scenarios, we identify target regions where irrigation expansion may sustain crop production under climate change. Our results also show that global rain-fed croplands hold significant potential for sustainable irrigation expansion and that different irrigation strategies have different irrigation expansion potentials. Under a 3 °C warming, we find that a soft-path irrigation expansion with small monthly water storage and deficit irrigation has the potential to expand irrigated land by 70 million hectares and feed 300 million more people globally. We also find that a hard-path irrigation expansion with large annual water storage can sustainably expand irrigation up to 350 million hectares, while producing food for 1.4 billion more people globally. By identifying where irrigation can be expanded under a warmer climate, this work may serve as a starting point for investigating socioeconomic factors of irrigation expansion and may guide future research and resources toward those agricultural communities and water management institutions that will most need to adapt to climate change.

scholarly journals Renewable energy and energy autonomy: how Indigenous peoples in Canada are shaping an energy future

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert D. Stefanelli ◽  
Chad Walker ◽  
Derek Kornelsen ◽  
Diana Lewis ◽  
Debbie H. Martin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
First Nations ◽  
Indigenous Peoples ◽  
Keyword Search ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Indigenous Communities ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Energy Autonomy

In 2015, the Liberal Party of Canada formed a majority federal government on a platform that included prioritizing Nation-to-Nation relationships with Indigenous (First Nations, Inuit, and Métis) peoples in the country and re-asserting global leadership in climate change action by moving away from fossil-fuel based extraction and toward renewable energy initiatives. It may be argued that addressing both of these issues, advancing Indigenous–Settler reconciliation, and mitigating climate change, can be done in the same space. Indeed, though Indigenous peoples in Canada and elsewhere have recently moved forward with renewable energy initiatives within their Territories, there has been very little critical analysis on just how such projects have been operationalized and whether renewable energy can or even should be considered a vehicle for reconciliation efforts. In this paper, we present a systematic review of Canadian literature (spanning from 1980 to 2017) concerning Indigenous peoples’ involvement in renewable energy to better understand the stated motivations and desires of Indigenous peoples in Canada taking leadership, partnering in, and (or) participating in the renewable energy sector. Using a series of keyword search strings across three academic databases, two theses databases, and a grey literature search, we retrieved literature (n = 980) that was subjected to four exclusionary forms and then thematically analyzed the included literature (n = 26). Our findings suggest Indigenous peoples’ experiences and motivations are varied, yet many are developing renewable energy in their Territories to: break free of colonial ties, move towards energy autonomy, establish more reliable energy systems, and reap the long-term financial benefits that clean energy can provide. Despite the apparent advantages seen throughout most of the literature reviewed here, we suggest further research in this area is necessary before this kind of positive rhetoric of renewable energy in Indigenous communities builds enough momentum that proponents become blind to possible shortcomings. We conclude with a broader discussion of the interactions between Indigenous–Settler reconciliation in the context of renewable energy projects as well as offering indicators for future research to fill current knowledge gaps.

Is rainfed crop production in central Europe at risk? Using a regional climate model to produce high resolution agroclimatic information for decision makers

2010 ◽  
Vol 148 (6) ◽  
pp. 639-656 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. TRNKA ◽  
J. EITZINGER ◽  
M. DUBROVSKÝ ◽  
D. SEMERÁDOVÁ ◽  
P. ŠTĚPÁNEK ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Rainfed Agriculture ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Wide Range

SUMMARYThe reality of climate change has rarely been questioned in Europe in the last few years as a consensus has emerged amongst a wide range of national to local environmental and resource policy makers and stakeholders that climate change has been sufficiently demonstrated in a number of sectors. A number of site-based studies evaluating change of attainable yields of various crops have been conducted in Central Europe, but studies that evaluate agroclimatic potential across more countries in the region are rare. Therefore, the main aim of the present study was to develop and test a technique for a comprehensive evaluation of agroclimatic conditions under expected climate conditions over all of Central Europe with a high spatial resolution in order to answer the question posed in the title of the paper ‘Is rainfed crop production in central Europe at risk?’ The domain covers the entire area of Central Europe between latitudes 45° and 51·5°N and longitudes 8° and 27°E, including at least part of the territories of Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland and Ukraine. The study is based on a range of agroclimatic indices that are designed to capture complex relations existing between climate and crops (their development and/or production) as well as the agrosystems as a whole. They provide information about various aspects of crop production, but they are not meant to compete with other and sometimes more suitable tools (e.g. process-based crop models, soil workability models, etc.). Instead, the selected indices can be seen as complementary to crop modelling tools that describe aspects not fully addressed or covered by crop models for an overall assessment of crop production conditions. The set of indices includes: sum of effective global radiation, number of effective growing days, Huglin index, water balance during the period from April to June (AMJ) and during the summer (JJA), proportion of days suitable for harvesting of field crops in June and July, and proportion of days suitable for sowing in early spring as well as during the autumn. The study concluded that while the uncertainties about future climate change impacts remain, the increase in the mean production potential of the domain as a whole (expressed in terms of effective global radiation and number of effective growing days) is likely a result of climate change, while inter-annual yield variability and risk may also increase. However, this is not true for the Pannonian (the lowlands between the Alps, the Carpathian Mountains and the Dinaric Alps) and Mediterranean parts of the domain, where increases in the water deficit will further limit rainfed agriculture but will probably lead to an increase in irrigation agriculture if local water resources are dwindling. Increases in the severity of the 20-year drought deficit and more substantial water deficits during the critical part of the growing season are very likely over the central and western part of the domain. Similarly, the inter-annual variability of water balance is likely to increase over the domain. There is also a chance of conditions for sowing during spring deteriorating due to unfavourable weather, which might increase the preference given to winter crops. This is already likely due to their ability to withstand spring drought stress events. Harvesting conditions in June (when harvest of some crops might take place in the future) are not improving beyond the present level, making the planning of the effective harvest time more challenging. Based on the evidence provided by the present study, it could be concluded that rainfed agriculture might indeed face more climate-related risks, but the overall conditions will probably allow for acceptable yield levels in most seasons. However, the evidence also suggests that the risk of extremely unfavourable years, resulting in poor economic returns, is likely to increase.

scholarly journals Constraints to Vegetable Production Resulting from Pest and Diseases Induced by Climate Change and Globalization: A Review

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mutondwa M. Phophi ◽  
Paramu L. Mafongoya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Vegetable Production ◽  
Pests And Diseases ◽  
Exotic Pests

Vegetable production worldwide is constrained by pests and diseases which effects are exacerbated by climate change and variability. Greenhouse gas emissions are also increasing due to poor agricultural practices and other human activities. This will continue to have a negative impact on the prevalence of insect pests and diseases. This review focuses on the climatic factors that impact on insect pests and diseases of vegetable crops. High atmospheric temperatures and elevated carbon dioxide increases pest development, survival of pests and distribution of pest to new areas. The distribution of insect pests and diseases are not due to climate changes only but are also a result of globalisation and poor biosecurity measures at country borders. There is limited information on the distribution of pests and diseases due to globalisation in African countries. New exotic pests will continue to be introduced to countries if biosecurity measures are not improved. Future research must focus on how to manage emerging pests and diseases influenced by high temperatures and carbon dioxide and other climatic conditions which influence pest severity under smallholder farmers in the southern African regions.

scholarly journals Integrated approaches to climate–crop modelling: needs and challenges

2005 ◽  
Vol 360 (1463) ◽  
pp. 2049-2065 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard A. Betts
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Short Time Scale ◽  
Crop Models

This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate–vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate–chemistry–crop–hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models.

scholarly journals Challenges and opportunities in crop simulation modelling under seasonal and projected climate change scenarios for crop production in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscilla Ntuchu Kephe ◽  
Kingsley Kwabena Ayisi ◽  
Brilliant Mareme Petja
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Production Management ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Crop Simulation ◽  
Data Limitations

AbstractA broad scope of crop models with varying demands on data inputs is being used for several purposes, such as possible adaptation strategies to control climate change impacts on future crop production, management decisions, and adaptation policies. A constant challenge to crop model simulation, especially for future crop performance projections and impact studies under varied conditions, is the unavailability of reliable historical data for model calibrations. In some cases, available input data may not be in the quantity and quality needed to drive most crop models. Even when a suitable choice of a crop simulation model is selected, data limitations hamper some of the models’ effective role for projections. To date, no review has looked at factors inhibiting the effective use of crop simulation models and complementary sources for input data in South Africa. This review looked at the barriers to crop simulation, relevant sources from which input data for crop models can be sourced, and proposed a framework for collecting input data. Results showed that barriers to effective simulations exist because, in most instances, the input data, like climate, soil, farm management practices, and cultivar characteristics, were generally incomplete, poor in quality, and not easily accessible or usable. We advocate a hybrid approach for obtaining input data for model calibration and validation. Recommended methods depending on the intended outputs and end use of model results include remote sensing, field, and greenhouse experiments, secondary data, engaging with farmers to model actual on-farm conditions. Thus, employing more than one method of data collection for input data for models can reduce the challenges faced by crop modellers due to the unavailability of data. The future of modelling depends on the goodness and availability of the input data, the readiness of modellers to cooperate on modularity and standardization, and potential user groups’ ability to communicate.

Weather, Values, Capacity and Concern: Toward a Social-Cognitive Model of Specialty Crop Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change Risk

2021 ◽  
pp. 001391652110266
Author(s):  
Guang Han ◽  
Ethan D. Schoolman ◽  
J. Gordon Arbuckle ◽  
Lois Wright Morton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Cognitive Model ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
Specialty Crop

As specialty crop production has become increasingly important to U.S. agriculture, public and private stakeholders have called for research and outreach efforts centered on risks posed by climate change. Drawing on a survey of specialty crop farmers, this study explores farmers’ perceptions of climate change risks. Underlying cognitive, experiential, and socio-cultural factors hypothesized to influence farmers’ climate change risk perceptions are tested using structural equation modeling techniques. Results show that specialty crop farmers exhibit an overall moderate concern about climatic risks. The more capable and prepared farmers feel themselves to be, the less concerned they are about climate change. Farmers who have recently experienced more extreme weather events perceive climate change to present greater risks. In addition, farmers’ risk perceptions are also shaped by attitudes toward human exemptionalism and productivism values. Based on these findings, we provide recommendations for outreach and future research.

scholarly journals Place Attachment and Sustainable Communities

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maiss Razem
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Place Attachment ◽  
Global South ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Sustainable Communities ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
The North ◽  
Urban Planning And Design ◽  
The Face

As cities in the developing nations are becoming urbanised at an accelerated pace and intensity, urban planners, design practitioners and policymakers conjoin efforts to satisfy the emergent needs. The design and construction of a sustainable built environment offers adaptive amelioration to the risks of climate change, which ostensibly affects the global South more than the North. Therefore, for developing cities to become sustainably urbanised and planned, socio-economic factors in addition to environmentally devised technological innovations should be comprehensively conceived, to become more consciously assimilated in urban planning and design of residential neighbourhoods in the global South. One of these social factors is place attachment, which has been gaining traction in the last three decades due to the role it plays in understanding the implications of human–place bonding on predicting behaviours, which in turn prepares communities to become resilient and sustainable in the face of possible risks, ranging from climate change displacement to environmental depletion of resources, economic constraints and social tensions. This paper explores the link between place attachment and the creation of more sustainable communities that are civically engaged and environmentally conscientious. As the dynamics of place attachment differ from one context to another, the study employs qualitative methods to mine the place attachment values of several residents of a neighbourhood in Amman, the capital city of Jordan. Through semi-structured interviews with a representative section of the residential communities and photographic documentation, the study analyses the findings from affective and cognitive perspectives, and evaluates their contribution to achieving sustainability. Based on the findings, the research proposes an agenda for future research directions in place attachment studies, providing empirical insight from the context of Jordan.

scholarly journals Climate change in MATOPIBA region of Brazil using Thornthwaite (1948) classification

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
LUCAS Eduardo OLIVEIRA-APARECIDO ◽  
Alexson Filgueiras Dutra ◽  
Pedro Antonio Lorençone ◽  
Francisco de Alcântara Neto ◽  
João Antonio Lorençon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Face ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Classification Index

Abstract Identify the climatic characterization of a region and its spatial and temporal variation, as well as its changes in the face of climate change events, is essential for agrometeorological studies because they can assist in the planning of strategies that reduce the negative impacts generated in the cultures exposed to critical climatic conditions. Thus, this study aimed to characterize the climatic conditions of the MATOPIBA region and its changes in scenarios of climate change using the classification index of Thornthwaite (1948). Daily time series of rainfall and temperature data in the 1950–1990 period were used, arranged in a 0.25º × 0.25º grid, covering 467 points over the studied region. The data set was used to estimate climatological water balance and climate index Thornthwaite (1948), and obtain the trends climatological according to IPCC (2014) climate change projections, with changes in the average air temperature (+ 1.5°C and − 1.5°C) and precipitation (+ 30% and − 30%). The MATOPIBA region is characterized by its humid, dry subhumid, and Moist subhumid climate, with the rainy seasons, between October and April, and drought, from May to September, well defined. In MATOPIBA climate change scenarios, climatic extreme indices tend to alter the pattern, frequency, and distribution of climate class, which can increase climate risk and impact crop production. Therefore, the results obtained can be used to develop strategies to mitigate the vulnerability of crops to climate change conditions.

scholarly journals The Vulnerability of Rice Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanen Terdoo ◽  
Giuseppe Feola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Economic Globalization ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Development Policies ◽  
The Face ◽  
Sub Saharan

Abstract: Rice is one of the most important food crops in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change, variability, and economic globalization threaten to disrupt rice value chains across the subcontinent, undermining their important role in economic development, food security, and poverty reduction. This paper maps existing research on the vulnerability of rice value chains, synthesizes the evidence and the risks posed by climate change and economic globalization, and discusses agriculture and rural development policies and their relevance for the vulnerability of rice value chains in sub-Saharan Africa. Important avenues for future research are identified. These include the impacts of multiple, simultaneous pressures on rice value chains, the effects of climate change and variability on parts of the value chain other than production, and the forms and extent to which different development policies hinder or enhance the resilience of rice value chains in the face of climatic and other pressures.

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