Probabilistic network modelling of the impact of penicillin consumption on spread of pneumococci

2010 ◽  
Vol 139 (9) ◽  
pp. 1351-1360 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. KARLSSON
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Clinical Problem ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Network Modelling ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Probabilistic Network ◽  
Strain Competition ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYThe worldwide increase of resistant S. pneumoniae is a growing clinical problem. In several countries, a more restrictive use of penicillin has been promoted in hope of slowing the rates of resistant pneumococci. However, the consequences of such an action on pneumococcal population dynamics are not fully understood. Thus, a network model was constructed to assess the impacts of penicillin consumption and between-strain competition on the spread of penicillin non-susceptible pneumococci. Model simulations suggest that the age distribution for carriage of penicillin non-susceptible pneumococci, in contrast to susceptible pneumococci, is affected by penicillin consumption. Furthermore, it appears extremely difficult to reduce the incidence of penicillin non-susceptible pneumococci by simply controlling penicillin consumption, assuming that reduced penicillin susceptibility does not confer a fitness cost for the organism. A more judicious use of penicillin together with control measures are in that case required to manage penicillin resistance in pneumococci.

Market orientation and performance: modelling a neural network

2009 ◽  
Vol 43 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 421-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela Silva ◽  
Luiz Moutinho ◽  
Arnaldo Coelho ◽  
Alzira Marques
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Market Orientation ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Performance Modelling ◽  
Network Modelling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Intelligence ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the impact of market orientation (MO) on performance using a neural network model in order to find new linkages and new explanations for this relationship.Design/methodology/approachThis investigation is based on a survey data collection from a sample of 192 Portuguese companies. A neural network model has been developed to identify the effects of each dimension of MO on each dimension of performance.FindingsRelationship among MO and performance was corroborated but MO's impact is poor and based on its first dimension, market intelligence generation.Research limitations/implicationsFurther research in this field should be conducted using other tools offered by neural network modelling.Practical implicationsManagers should give more attention to cross‐functional co‐ordination in order to improve market intelligence dissemination and responsiveness and, thus, global performance.Originality/valueThe paper presents the development of a neural network model to analyse this relationship.

scholarly journals Measles in developing countries. Part II. The predicted impact of mass vaccination

1988 ◽  
Vol 100 (3) ◽  
pp. 419-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. Mclean ◽  
R. M. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Measles Virus ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Mass Vaccination ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
The Impact

SummaryA mathematical model is developed to mimic the transmission dynamics of the measles virus in communities in the developing world with high population growth rates and high case fatality rates. The model is used to compare the impacts of different mass vaccination programmes upon morbidity and mortality arising from infection by measles virus. Analyses identify three conclusions of practical significance to the design of optimal vaccination programmes. First, there is no single optimum age at which to vaccinate children for all urban and rural communities in developing countries. For a given community the best age at which to vaccinate depends critically on the age distribution of cases of infection prior to the introduction of control measures. Second, numerical studies predict that the introduction of mass vaccination will induce a temporary phase of very low incidence of infection before the system settles to a new pattern of recurrent epidemics. Mass vaccination acts to lengthen the inter-epidemic period in the postvaccination period when compared with that prevailing prior to control. Third, numerical simulations suggest that two-phase and two-stage vaccination programmes are of less benefit than one-stage programmes (achieving comparable coverage) aimed at young children. The paper ends with a discussion of the needs for: improved programmes of data collection; monitoring of the impact of current vaccination programmes; and the development of models that take account of viral transmission dynamics, host demography and economic factors.

scholarly journals Mesocosm experiments reveal the impact of mosquito control measures on malaria vector life history and population dynamics

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kija Ng’habi ◽  
Mafalda Viana ◽  
Jason Matthiopoulos ◽  
Issa Lyimo ◽  
Gerry Killeen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Life History ◽  
Malaria Vector ◽  
Mosquito Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mesocosm Experiments ◽  
The Impact

The methodological approach for the determination of the pressure of artificial raindrops as a question of the theory of splash soil erosion

2020 ◽  
pp. 24-28
Author(s):  
Mihail Zver'kov
Keyword(s):  
Block Diagram ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Effective Pressure ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Splash Erosion ◽  
Rain Drops ◽  
Artificial Rain ◽  
The Impact

To the article the results of the theoretical and experimental researches are given on questions of estimates of the dynamic rate effect of raindrop impact on soil. The aim of this work was to analyze the current methods to determine the rate of artificial rain pressure on the soil for the assessment of splash erosion. There are the developed author’s method for calculation the pressure of artificial rain on the soil and the assessment of splash erosion. The study aims to the justification of evaluation methods and the obtaining of quantitative characteristics, prevention and elimination of accelerated (anthropogenic) erosion, the creation and the realization of the required erosion control measures. The paper considers the question of determining the pressure of artificial rain on the soil. At the moment of raindrops impact, there is the tension in the soil, which is called vertical effective pressure. It is noted that the impact of rain drops in the soil there are stresses called vertical effective pressure. The equation for calculation of vertical effective pressure is proposed in this study using the known spectrum of raindrops. Effective pressure was 1.4 Pa for the artificial rain by sprinkler machine «Fregat» and 5.9 Pa for long distance sprinkler DD-30. The article deals with a block diagram of the sequence for determining the effective pressure of rain drops on the soil. This diagram was created by the author’s method of calculation of the effective pressure of rain drops on the soil. The need for an integrated approach to the description of the artificial rain impact on the soil is noted. Various parameters characterizing drop erosion are considered. There are data about the mass of splashed soil in the irrigation of various irrigation machinery and installations. For example, the rate (mass) of splashed soil was 0.28…0.78 t/ha under irrigation sprinkler apparatus RACO 4260–55/701C in the conditions of the Ryazan region. The method allows examining the environmental impact of sprinkler techniques for analyzes of the pressure, caused by raindrops, on the soil. It can also be useful in determining the irrigation rate before the runoff for different types of sprinkler equipment and soil conditions.

Long-term population dynamics of the red deer and European roe deer at the protected and not-protected areas in Mountain Crimea

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 65-72
Author(s):  
V. N. Shmagol' ◽  
V. L. Yarysh ◽  
S. P. Ivanov ◽  
V. I. Maltsev
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Red Deer ◽  
Nature Reserve ◽  
Roe Deer ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Population Number ◽  
The Impact

<p>The long-term population dynamics of the red deer (<em>Cervus elaphus</em> L.) and European roe deer (<em>Capreolus</em> <em>capreolus</em> L.) at the mountain and forest zone of Crimea during 1980-2017 is presented. Fluctuations in numbers of both species are cyclical and partly synchronous. Period of oscillations in the population of red deer is about 25 years, the average duration of the oscillation period of number of roe deer is 12.3 years. During the fluctuations in the number the increasing and fall in population number of the red deer had been as 26-47 %, and roe deer – as 22-34 %. Basing on the dada obtained we have assumed that together with large-scale cycles of fluctuations in population number of both red deer and roe deer the short cycles of fluctuations in the number of these species with period from 3.5 to 7.5 years take place. Significant differences of the parameters of cyclical fluctuations in the number of roe deer at some sites of the Mountainous Crimea: breaches of synchronicity, as well as significant differences in the duration of cycles are revealed. The greatest deviations from the average values of parameters of long-term dynamics of the number of roe deer in Crimea are noted for groups of this species at two protected areas. At the Crimean Nature Reserve the cycle time of fluctuations of the numbers of roe deer was 18 years. At the Karadag Nature Reserve since 1976 we can see an exponential growth in number of roe deer that is continued up to the present time. By 2016 the number of roe deer reached 750 individuals at a density of 437 animals per 1 thousand ha. Peculiarity of dynamics of number of roe deer at some sites proves the existence in the mountain forest of Crimea several relatively isolated groups of deer. We assumed that "island" location of the Crimean populations of red deer and European roe deer, their relatively little number and influence of permanent extreme factors of both natural and anthropogenic origination have contributed to a mechanism of survival of these populations. The elements of such a mechanism include the following features of long-term dynamics of the population: the reduction in the period of cyclic population fluctuations, while maintaining their amplitude and the appearance of additional small cycles, providing more flexible response of the population to the impact of both negative and positive environmental factors. From the totality of the weather conditions for the Crimean population of roe deer the recurring periods of increases and downs in the annual precipitation amount may have relevance. There was a trend of increase in the roe deer population during periods of increasing annual precipitation.</p>

Characterizing the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation measures: A data-centric approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Olagoke ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
The World ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND COVID-19 represents a serious threat to both national health and economic systems. To curb this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a series of COVID-19 public safety guidelines. Different countries around the world initiated different measures in line with the WHO guidelines to mitigate and investigate the spread of COVID-19 in their territories. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these control measures using a data-centric approach. METHODS We begin with a simple text analysis of coronavirus-related articles and show that reports on similar outbreaks in the past strongly proposed similar control measures. This reaffirms the fact that these control measures are in order. Subsequently, we propose a simple performance statistic that quantifies general performance and performance under the different measures that were initiated. A density based clustering of based on performance statistic was carried out to group countries based on performance. RESULTS The performance statistic helps evaluate quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 control measures. Countries tend show variability in performance under different control measures. The performance statistic has negative correlation with cases of death which is a useful characteristics for COVID-19 control measure performance analysis. A web-based time-line visualization that enables comparison of performances and cases across continents and subregions is presented. CONCLUSIONS The performance metric is relevant for the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 control measures. This can help caregivers and policymakers identify effective control measures and reduce cases of death due to COVID-19. The interactive web visualizer provides easily digested and quick feedback to augment decision-making processes in the COVID-19 response measures evaluation. CLINICALTRIAL Not Applicable

scholarly journals Sources of and Control Measures for PTE Pollution in Soil at the Urban Fringe in Weinan, China

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 762
Author(s):  
Lei Han ◽  
Rui Chen ◽  
Zhao Liu ◽  
Shanshan Chang ◽  
Yonghua Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Pollution Sources ◽  
Urban Fringe ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Atomic Fluorescence Spectrometry ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Kriging Interpolation Method ◽  
The Impact

The environment of the urban fringe is complex and frangible. With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the urban fringe has become the primary space for urban expansion, and the intense human activities create a high risk of potentially toxic element (PTE) pollution in the soil. In this study, 138 surface soil samples were collected from a region undergoing rapid urbanization and construction—Weinan, China. Concentrations of As, Pb, Cr, Cu, and Ni (Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry, ICP-MS) and Hg (Atomic Fluorescence Spectrometry, AFS) were measured. The Kriging interpolation method was used to create a visualization of the spatial distribution characteristics and to analyze the pollution sources of PTEs in the soil. The pollution status of PTEs in the soil was evaluated using the national environmental quality standards for soils in different types of land use. The results show that the content range of As fluctuated a small amount and the coefficient of variation is small and mainly comes from natural soil formation. The content of Cr, Cu, and Ni around the automobile repair factory, the prefabrication factory, and the building material factory increased due to the deposition of wear particles in the soil. A total of 13.99% of the land in the study area had Hg pollution, which was mainly distributed on category 1 development land and farmland. Chemical plants were the main pollution sources. The study area should strictly control the industrial pollution emissions, regulate the agricultural production, adjust the land use planning, and reduce the impact of pollution on human beings. Furthermore, we make targeted remediation suggestions for each specific land use type. These results are of theoretical significance, will be of practical value for the control of PTEs in soil, and will provide ecological environmental protection in the urban fringe throughout the urbanization process.

scholarly journals Diagnosis and treatment delay of head and neck cancers during COVID-19 era in a tertiary care academic hospital: what should we expect?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro De Luca ◽  
Antonella Bisogno ◽  
Vito Colacurcio ◽  
Pasquale Marra ◽  
Claudia Cassandro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Study ◽  
Head And Neck ◽  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Diagnostic Delay ◽  
Treatment Delay ◽  
Head And Neck Cancers ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Academic Hospital ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Since the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 from China, all deferrable medical activities have been suspended, to redirect resources for the management of COVID patients. The goal of this retrospective study was to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on head and neck cancers’ diagnosis in our Academic Hospital. Methods A retrospective analysis of patients treated for head and neck cancers between March 12 and November 1, 2020 was carried out, and we compared these data with the diagnoses of the same periods of the 5 previous years. Results 47 patients were included in this study. We observed a significative reduction in comparison with the same period of the previous 5 years. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic is associated with a decrease in the number of new H&N cancers diagnoses, and a substantial diagnostic delay can be attributable to COVID-19 control measures.

scholarly journals Tourism Impacts, Tourism-Phobia and Gentrification in Historic Centers: The Cases of Málaga (Spain) and Gdansk (Poland)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 408
Author(s):  
Fernando Almeida-García ◽  
Rafael Cortés-Macías ◽  
Krzysztof Parzych
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Research ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Tourism Impacts ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Tourist Accommodation ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Urban Characteristics

This study analyzes the role of residents in urban tourist destinations affected by the increase in tourist flows, which have generated various problems such as tourism, gentrification and the emergence of tourism as a threat to residents. The role of residents in tourist destinations has not been analyzed regularly during the development process of destinations. We study two cases of historic centers in European cities, with the aim of comparing tourism problems, which are common to most European urban destinations. This study was conducted by administering surveys amongst residents of these historic centers (378 in Málaga, Spain, and 380 in Gdansk, Poland). These cities show a similar demographic size and urban characteristics. This is the first comparative research on tourism-phobia and gentrification in destinations, a field of analysis that is still not studied much. We develop specific scales to measure gentrification and tourism-phobia; moreover, we study the impact of some tourist problems that affect residents (noise, dirt, occupation of public spaces, etc.), and we show the spatial distribution of tourism-phobia. The same analysis instruments are used for both cities. The results of this study show that the tourism-phobia situation is different in the analyzed destinations. It is more intense in the case of Málaga than in Gdansk. The two historic centers are especially affected by the processes of increased tourist flows and the growth of new forms of tourist accommodation. The research results show that the residents’ annoyance caused by tourism gentrification is more intense than tourism-phobia. Both case studies highlight the residents’ complaints regarding the inadequate management of problems by public stakeholders and control measures.

scholarly journals Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bimandra A. Djaafara ◽  
Charles Whittaker ◽  
Oliver J. Watson ◽  
Robert Verity ◽  
Nicholas F. Brazeau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Additional Insight ◽  
Short Term ◽  
If Current ◽  
Vaccine Impact ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract Background As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. Results C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document