Rational Planning Agency

2017 ◽  
Vol 80 ◽  
pp. 25-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael E. Bratman

AbstractOur planning agency contributes to our lives in fundamental ways. Prior partial plans settle practical questions about the future. They thereby pose problems of means, filter solutions to those problems, and guide action. This plan-infused background frames our practical thinking in ways that cohere with our resource limits and help organize our lives, both over time and socially. And these forms of practical thinking involve guidance by norms of plan rationality, including norms of plan consistency, means-end coherence, and stability over time.But why are these norms of rationality? Would these norms be stable under a planning agent's reflection? I try to answer these questions in a way that responds to a skeptical challenge. While I highlight pragmatic reasons for being a planning agent, these need to be supplemented fully to explain the force of these norms in the particular case. I argue that the needed further rationale appeals to the idea that these norms track certain conditions of a planning agent's self-governance, both at a time and over time. With respect to diachronic plan rationality, this approach leads to a modest plan conservatism.

Author(s):  
Michael E. Bratman

This essay appeals to self-governance to explain why basic planning norms—both synchronic and diachronic—are norms of practical rationality. The best rationale of her own plan-infused practical thinking that is available to a reflective planning agent who has the capacity for self-governance involves a tight connection between plan rationality and conditions of self-governance, both synchronic and diachronic. This leads to the idea that there is rational pressure not only in the direction of forms of coherence involved in a planning agent’s self-governance, both at a time and over time, but also in the direction of an end of one’s diachronic (and so, synchronic) self-governance. This is because that end is central to a planning agent’s diachronic self-governance, given the role of that end in willpower that coheres with such diachronic self-governance. While this end is not essential to agency per se, it is a rationally self-sustaining element of a stable reflective equilibrium that involves basic planning norms.


Author(s):  
Meghan Sullivan

This chapter introduces the reader to future discounting and some received wisdom. The received wisdom about rational planning tends to assume that it is irrational to have near‐biased preferences (i.e., preferences for lesser goods now compared to greater goods further in the future).Thechapter describes these preferences by introducing the reader to value functions. Value functions are then used to model different kinds of distant future temporal discounting (e.g., hyperbolic, exponential, absolute). Finally, the chapter makes a distinction between temporal discounting and risk discounting. It offers a reverse lottery test to tease apart these two kinds of discounting.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6313
Author(s):  
Ramona Ciolac ◽  
Tiberiu Iancu ◽  
Ioan Brad ◽  
Tabita Adamov ◽  
Nicoleta Mateoc-Sîrb

The agritourism activity can be a characteristic reality of the present, considering rural area’s sustainability, being at the same time a business reality for rural entrepreneurs and a “must have” for rural communities that have tourism potential. It is a form of tourism, through which the tourist can receive a qualitative product at a reasonable price, but also a field that can ensure sustainable development over time, being at the same time environmentally friendly. The purpose of this scientific paper is to identify the aspects that make agritourism “a possible business reality of the moment”, for Romanian rural area’s sustainability. We take into account the following areas: Bran-Moieciu area—considered “the oldest” in terms of agritourism experience, and Apuseni Mountains area, with a great inclination and potential for this activity. The study conducted for these two areas is focused on several aspects: the degree of involvement in agritourism activities, considering the number of years and managerial experience, the analysis of the types of activities/experiences offered by agritourism structures, the identification of the main reasons/motivations for the orientation towards agritourism and the manner in which this field is perceived. Aspects related to the marketing-finance part of the agritourism business are also taken into account: customers, distribution channels, financial sources, shortcomings observed by agritourism business owners and possible action directions so as to improve the activity/agritourism product. Agritourism may be “a possible business reality of the moment” for the studied areas and not only, but in the future, the entrepreneur/farmer must be constantly updated because of the changing situations that appear on the market, be able to make sustainable decisions for his/her own business, which in the future will ensure its viability and obviously its long-term profitability and development, and in the same time rural area’s sustainability.


2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
Jorian Clarke

Describes a six‐year study of children’s Internet usage which shows how preferences and habits have changed over time; this was conducted by SpectraCom Inc and Circle 1 network. Explains the research methodology and the objectives, which were to identify trends in the amount of time spent by children online now and in future, their opinions about the future role of the Internet in society and the future of e‐commerce, and parents’ roles in children’s online activities. Concludes that there is need for a more child‐friendly content in Internet sites and for more parental involvement, that children will be influential in the market for alternative devices like mobile phones, that online shopping is likely to flourish, and that children have a growing interest in online banking.


2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-119
Author(s):  
Xinming Xia ◽  
Wan-Hsin Liu

AbstractThis paper analyses how China’s investments in Germany have developed over time and the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in this regard, based on four different datasets, including our own survey in mid-2020. Our analysis shows that Germany is currently one of the most attractive investment destinations for Chinese investors. Chinese state-owned enterprises have played an important role as investors in Germany — particularly in large-scale projects. The COVID-19 pandemic has had some negative but rather temporary effects on Chinese investments in Germany. Germany is expected to stay attractive to Chinese investors who seek to gain access to advanced technologies and know-how in the future.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3097
Author(s):  
Fabio Wagner ◽  
Holger Preuss ◽  
Thomas Könecke

This study perceives professional European football as one of the most relevant event-related entrepreneurial ecosystems (EEs) worldwide. It also identifies a healthy sporting competition in the five most popular European football leagues (Spain, England, Germany, Italy, and France), the “big five,” as a key pillar for the functioning of this ecosystem. By applying a quantitative approach, competitive intensity (CI) is measured for all big five leagues for 21 seasons (1998/99 to 2018/19). The chosen method does not only convey an overall indication of the competitive health of the entire league but also provides detailed information on the four important sub-competitions (championship race, qualification for Champions League or Europa League, and the fight against relegation). In all five leagues, seasonal CI tends to decrease over time, and especially over the last decade. The main reason is a decline in the intensity of the championship race while all other sub-competitions show relatively robust CI values. Overall, it can be concluded that the competitive health of the big five is intact, but the dwindling CI of the championship races can harm the EE of professional European football in the long run. Accordingly, it should be closely monitored in the future.


1983 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 559-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Rakowski ◽  
Clifton E. Barber ◽  
Wayne C. Seelbach

Three techniques for assessing extension of one's personal future (line-marking, open-ended report, life-events) were compared in a sample of 74 respondents. Two points of data collection were employed to examine short-term stability. At both administrations, correlations among indices suggested that techniques were only moderately comparable. Short-term stabilities were variable; correlations ranged from .42 to .79. Across subgroups of the sample, the direct, open-ended report of extension showed the greatest stability, while life-event extension showed the least. Apparently, extension of thinking about the future should be assessed by more than one technique to investigate potential relationships with other variables or changes over time in perspective about the future.


2021 ◽  
Vol 133 (4) ◽  
pp. 687-705
Author(s):  
Jan Hoffenaar

Abstract Military History in the 21st CenturyThe field of military history has undergone profound changes in recent decades, the main feature of which has been to broaden the narrow traditional operational military historiography in terms of theme, perspective and methodology. This article very briefly discusses the position of the field in the academic and non-academic world. Then ‐ the main body of the article ‐ it explores the new historiographic paths military historians have taken over time, and analyzes the benefits and opportunities of these new practices, as well as the associated risks. Finally, a hopeful look is taken at the future of the field. It is argued that military historians with a comprehensive approach are best able to explain how the course of military action has influenced the general course of history and can thus make a full contribution to general historiography.


2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathryn Gin Lum

AbstractThis article asks whether and how J. Z. Smith's contention that religion is a “non-native category” might be applied to the discipline of history. It looks at how nineteenth-century Americans constructed their own understandings of “proper history”—authenticatable, didactic, and progressive—against the supposed historylessness of “heathen” Hawaiians and stagnation of “pagan” Chinese. “True” history, for these nineteenth-century historians, changed in the past and pointed to change in the future. The article asks historians to think about how they might be replicating some of the same assumptions about forward-moving history by focusing on change over time as a core component of historical narration. It urges historians to instead also incorporate the native historical imaginations of our subjects into our own methods, paying attention to when those imaginations are cyclical and reiterative as well as directional, and letting our subjects' assumptions about time and history, often shaped by religious perspectives, orient our own decisions about how to structure the stories we tell.


Author(s):  
A. Cavarzere ◽  
M. Venturini

The growing need to increase the competitiveness of industrial systems continuously requires a reduction of maintenance costs, without compromising safe plant operation. Therefore, forecasting the future behavior of a system allows planning maintenance actions and saving costs, because unexpected stops can be avoided. In this paper, four different methodologies are applied to predict gas turbine behavior over time: Linear and Non Linear Regression, One Parameter Double Exponential Smoothing, Baesyan Forecasting Method and Kalman Filter. The four methodologies are used to provide a prediction of the time when a performance limit will be exceeded in the future, as a function of the current trend of the considered parameter. The application considers different scenarios which may be representative of the trend over time of some significant parameters for gas turbines. Moreover, the Baesyan Forecasting Method, which allows the detection of discontinuities in time series, is also tested for predicting system behavior after two consecutive trends. The results presented in this paper aim to select the most suitable methodology that allows both trending and forecasting as a function of data trend over time, in order to predict time evolution of gas turbine characteristic parameters and to provide an estimate of the occurrence of a failure.


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