scholarly journals THE TIMING OF ASSET TRADE AND OPTIMAL POLICY IN DYNAMIC OPEN ECONOMIES

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 1543-1573 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ozge Senay ◽  
Alan Sutherland
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
National Policy Maker

Using a standard open economy DSGE model, it is shown that the timing of asset trade relative to policy decisions has a potentially important impact on the welfare evaluation of monetary policy at the individual-country level. If asset trade in the initial period takes place before the announcement of policy, a national policy maker can choose a policy rule that reduces the work effort of households in the policy maker's country, in the knowledge that consumption is fully insured by optimally chosen international portfolio positions. But if asset trade takes place after the policy announcement, this insurance is absent and households in the policy maker's country bear the full consumption consequences of the chosen policy rule. The welfare incentives faced by national policy makers are very different between the two cases. Numerical examples confirm that asset-market timing has a significant impact on the optimal policy rule.

scholarly journals ASSESSING THE QUALITY OF COVID-19 DATA: EVIDENCE FROM NEWCOMB-BENFORD LAW

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hrvoje Jošić ◽  
Berislav Žmuk
Keyword(s):  
Health Policy ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The World ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Benford Law ◽  
Made In

The COVID-19 infection started in Wuhan, China, spreading all over the world, creating global healthcare and economic crisis. Countries all over the world are fighting hard against this pandemic; however, there are doubts on the reported number of cases. In this paper Newcomb-Benford Law is used for the detection of possible false number of reported COVID-19 cases. The analysis, when all countries have been observed together, showed that there is a doubt that countries potentially falsify their data of new COVID-19 cases of infection intentionally. When the analysis was lowered on the individual country level, it was shown that most countries do not diminish their numbers of new COVID-19 cases deliberately. It was found that distributions of COVID-19 data for 15% to 19% of countries for the first digit analysis and 30% to 39% of countries for the last digit analysis do not conform with the Newcomb-Benford Law distribution. Further investigation should be made in this field in order to validate the results of this research. The results obtained from this paper can be important for economic and health policy makers in order to guide COVID-19 surveillance and implement public health policy measures.

Industrial Policies in the BRICS

2020 ◽  
pp. 748-778
Author(s):  
Fernando Santiago
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Policy ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Individual Development ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Major Player ◽  
Development Paths ◽  
The Individual

This chapter discusses industrial policy in the BRICS. It contributes to the literature in three ways. First, by approaching the BRICS as a single entity, it documents the gradual buy-in to the concept of BRICS by the participating countries, and their efforts at strengthening collaboration, including on industrial development matters. Second, it corroborates that differences in individual development paths influence the expected contribution of each member to advancing a joint industrial development agenda, while it is early to dismiss their ability to consolidate as a major player in global economic dynamics. Third, the BRICS response to the Fourth Industrial Revolution builds on their traditional proactive stance around industrial policy, while their expected collective collaboration with third-party regions, particularly Africa, reflects cumulative interests at the individual country level.

scholarly journals A NEW MODEL WITH REGIME SWITCHING ERRORS: FORECASTING GDP IN TIMES OF GREAT RECESSION

Ekonomika ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 95 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-29
Author(s):  
Algirdas Bartkus
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Exploratory Data

This paper investigates the possibility to obtain better GDP forecasts in the early stages of Great Recession. Here, predictive performance refers to exclusively out-of-sample forecasts. Based on exploratory data analysis and general-to-specific modelling, this paper proposes a univariate predictive threshold model for the small open economy that outperforms its linear counterparts and correctly determines the course of events. This model does not explain any causal links; however, based on a set of economic arguments, it sets forward an idea regarding how a forecaster can act when principal determinant factors, responsible for a sudden, yet lasting change, are unknown, unmeasurable or cannot be influenced by national policy makers. A major dissimilarity between usual threshold models and the model presented in this paper is that while variables act differently under different conditions in the former, in this model, due to economic reasons, errors act differently. Alternatively, this paper can be viewed as a comparative GDP prediction study.

scholarly journals Stock index manipulation around election announcements: evidence from Pakistan stock exchange

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Shahbaz Khan ◽  
Razzi Abbas Jafri ◽  
Nida Baig ◽  
Muhammad Shaique ◽  
Muhammad Usman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Country Level ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to find out the impact of political general elections of Pakistan on KSE-100 index. We employed Event study methodology on closing prices of KSE-100 index over the time period January, 1998 to May, 2013. During our sample period, 3 events of political general Elections occurred i.e., Event1 in 2002, Event2 in 2008, and recently Event3 in 2013. We construct an Event window of 11 days consisting of 5 pre-event days, 1 on-event day, and 5 post-event days. Results of this study show that Events 1 -and 2 put significant negative impact on stock returns, while Event3 demonstrates a significant positive impact on stock returns. This study also revealed the pre -and post-event comparison for all of the three events and, suggested that as soon as the political situation of the country changes, behavior of investors towards political general election also changes. Manipulation in stock index has always been remained an inconclusive phenomenon for investors and policy makers. So, further evidence on an individual country level might suggest fruitful guidelines to both investors and policy makers.

scholarly journals A Systematic Review of the Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in GCC Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed AlKhars ◽  
Fazlul Miah ◽  
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah ◽  
Aymen Kayal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Energy Technologies ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship

This survey study analyzed the existing literature on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait). This study identified 59 articles published in 18 journals covering the period 2006–2019. The articles were grouped into two categories: the first category included studies analyzing the energy–growth relationship at the individual country level while the second category included studies analyzing the relationship at a multi-country level. The result of this study revealed that 18% of the observations supported the growth hypothesis, 26% supported the conservation hypothesis, 43% supported the feedback hypothesis and 13% supported the neutral hypothesis. As our analysis found a dominant support for the growth and feedback hypotheses, this implies that the focus of energy policies in GCC countries has been on the supply and the uninterrupted availability for the expansion and growth of their industrial and developmental activities. However, for a sustainable development and growth of the GCC economies and meeting the environmental challenges, there is an urgent need for the expansion of renewable energy technologies in the energy supply mix of GCC countries.

Talent Management in the Global Context

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaista E. Khilji ◽  
Randall S. Schular
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Talent Management ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Management Research ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Global Context ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Multiple Processes ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Level Government

Talent-management research has primarily focused at the individual and organizational levels. While this work has added much value to the literature, we believe that shifting the focus to the macro context will further strengthen the field. This might include exploring country-level government activities that enhance a country’s talent levels; non-governmental initiatives to help various countries bolster their talent-management programs; global talent mobility; and knowledge transfer. To incorporate this focus more systematically, we present a conceptual framework for macro talent management. The framework draws our attention to the macro, global, and country context within which talent management occurs, as well illuminates its multiple processes and outcomes. We offer directions for future research and discuss implications for policy makers and companies.

scholarly journals The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 305-326
Author(s):  
Michael T. Kiley
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Equilibrium Real Interest Rate

Real interest rates have been persistently below historical norms over the past decade, leading economists and policy makers to view the equilibrium real interest rate as likely to be low for some time. Various definitions and approaches to estimating the equilibrium real interest rate are examined, including approaches based on the term structure of interest rates and small macroeconomic models. The individual country approaches common in the literature are extended to allow for global trend and cyclical factors. The analysis finds that global factors dominate the downward trend in the equilibrium interest rate across 13 advanced economies. A corollary of this finding is that the U.S. equilibrium rate can be informed by global developments and is recently lower than estimated in U.S.-only studies. The analysis also highlights how the common global trend confounds empirical assessments of the determinants of movements in the equilibrium rate and the need to better integrate term-structure and macroeconomic approaches.

Global Value Chains and Export-Import Determinants in the European Union Member Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1365
Author(s):  
Rajmund MIRDALA
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Union Member ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Intermediate Goods ◽  
The European Union ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Individual

Intra-Eurozone current account imbalances represent one of the most discussed topics related to the competitiveness issues of the common currency area since its establishment. Many authors examined this phenomenon considering possible linkages to effects of common monetary policy, real exchange rates movements, variety of demand drivers (fiscal imbalances included) and capital flows. However, as a result of increasing specialization on the individual country level during past few decades that stimulated distribution of individual stages of production across countries, dynamics of exports and imports of final goods, intermediate goods as well as primary inputs was associated with generally ambiguous effect on the external balance. The paper investigates the main determinants of disaggregated export and import demand functions on the sample of 21 the European Union member countries. Our results from estimated ARDL model based on the panel data indicates relatively significant importance of intermediate goods in the formation of external trade balances within as well as outside European Union from both territorial and commodity aspects.

scholarly journals The Policies of Social Innovation: A Cross-National Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 457-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gorgi Krlev ◽  
Torbjörn Einarsson ◽  
Filip Wijkström ◽  
Lea Heyer ◽  
Georg Mildenberger
Keyword(s):  
Social Innovation ◽  
Innovation Policy ◽  
Policy Discourse ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
National Analysis ◽  
Cross National

This article deals with the policy discourse on social innovation at the European Union (EU) level as well as across nine European countries. We perform an exploratory analysis of relevant policy documents focusing on articulated policy authority, suggested actors, and key outcomes of social innovation. We also conduct an explanatory testing of the applicability of the varieties of capitalism as a traditional innovation classification system to social innovation. We find that the policy discourse across Europe lacks systemization and that EU agendas are only incompletely replicated at the individual country level. We also find that social innovation policies largely defy the principles governing traditional innovation policy regimes, which necessitates new or revised classification frames.

scholarly journals One size does not fit all: Constructing complementary digital reskilling strategies using online labour market data

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 205395172110031
Author(s):  
Fabian Stephany
Keyword(s):  
Social Transformation ◽  
Grand Challenge ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
National Education ◽  
Global Challenge ◽  
Cognitive Work ◽  
National Education Systems ◽  
Skill Requirements ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Value Of Learning

Digital technologies are radically transforming our work environments and demand for skills, with certain jobs being automated away and others demanding mastery of new digital techniques. This global challenge of rapidly changing skill requirements due to task automation overwhelms workers. The digital skill gap widens further as technological and social transformation outpaces national education systems and precise skill requirements for mastering emerging technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence, remain opaque. Online labour platforms could help us to understand this grand challenge of reskilling en masse. Online labour platforms build a globally integrated market that mediates between millions of buyers and sellers of remotely deliverable cognitive work. This commentary argues that, over the last decade, online labour platforms have become the ‘laboratories’ of skill rebundling; the combination of skills from different occupational domains. Online labour platform data allows us to establish a new taxonomy on the individual complementarity of skills. For policy makers, education providers and recruiters, a continuous analysis of complementary reskilling trajectories enables automated, individual and far-sighted suggestions on the value of learning a new skill in a future of technological disruption.

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