scholarly journals Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sake J. de Vlas ◽  
Luc E. Coffeng

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has affected the entire world causing substantial numbers of cases and deaths in most countries. Many have implemented nationwide stringent control to avoid overburdening the health care system. This has paralyzed economic and social activities and may continue to do so until the large-scale availability of a vaccine. We propose an alternative exit strategy to develop herd immunity in a predictable and controllable way: a phased lift of control. This means that successive parts of the country (e.g. provinces) stop stringent control, and COVID-19-related IC admissions are distributed over the country as a whole. Importantly, vulnerable individuals need to be shielded until herd immunity has developed in their area. We explore the characteristics and duration of this strategy using a novel individual-based model for geographically stratified transmission of COVID-19 in a country. The model predicts that individuals will have to experience stringent control for about 14 months on average, but this duration may be almost halved by further developments (more IC beds, better treatments). Clearly, implementation of this strategy would have a profound impact on individuals and society, and should therefore be considered carefully by various other disciplines (e.g. health systems, ethics, economics) before actual implementation.

Author(s):  
Sake J. de Vlas ◽  
Luc E. Coffeng

Most countries are affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and experience rapidly increasing numbers of cases and deaths. Many have implemented nationwide stringent control to avoid overburdening the health care system. This paralyzes economic and social activities until the availability of a vaccine, which may take years. We propose an alternative exit strategy to develop herd immunity in a predictable and controllable way: a phased lift of control. This means that successive parts of the country (e.g. provinces) stop stringent control, and Covid-19-related IC admissions are distributed over the country as the whole. Importantly, vulnerable individuals need to be shielded until herd immunity has developed in their area. We explore the characteristics and duration of this strategy using a novel individual-based model for geographically stratified transmission of Covid-19 in a country. The model predicts that individuals will have to experience stringent control for about 14 months on average, but this duration may be significantly shortened by future developments (more IC beds, better drugs). Clearly, the strategy will have a profound impact on individuals and society, and should therefore be considered carefully by various other disciplines (e.g. health systems, ethics, economics) before actual implementation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (04) ◽  
pp. 294-299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lutz S. Freudenberg ◽  
Ulf Dittmer ◽  
Ken Herrmann

Abstract Introduction Preparations of health systems to accommodate large number of severely ill COVID-19 patients in March/April 2020 has a significant impact on nuclear medicine departments. Materials and Methods A web-based questionnaire was designed to differentiate the impact of the pandemic on inpatient and outpatient nuclear medicine operations and on public versus private health systems, respectively. Questions were addressing the following issues: impact on nuclear medicine diagnostics and therapy, use of recommendations, personal protective equipment, and organizational adaptations. The survey was available for 6 days and closed on April 20, 2020. Results 113 complete responses were recorded. Nearly all participants (97 %) report a decline of nuclear medicine diagnostic procedures. The mean reduction in the last three weeks for PET/CT, scintigraphies of bone, myocardium, lung thyroid, sentinel lymph-node are –14.4 %, –47.2 %, –47.5 %, –40.7 %, –58.4 %, and –25.2 % respectively. Furthermore, 76 % of the participants report a reduction in therapies especially for benign thyroid disease (-41.8 %) and radiosynoviorthesis (–53.8 %) while tumor therapies remained mainly stable. 48 % of the participants report a shortage of personal protective equipment. Conclusions Nuclear medicine services are notably reduced 3 weeks after the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic reached Germany, Austria and Switzerland on a large scale. We must be aware that the current crisis will also have a significant economic impact on the healthcare system. As the survey cannot adapt to daily dynamic changes in priorities, it serves as a first snapshot requiring follow-up studies and comparisons with other countries and regions.


Author(s):  
Donald C. Williams

This chapter provides a fuller treatment of the pure manifold theory with an expanded discussion of competing doctrines. It is argued that competing doctrines fail to account for the extensive and/or transitory aspect(s) of time, or they do so at great theoretical cost. The pure manifold theory accounts for the extensive aspect of time because it admits a four-dimensional manifold and it accounts for the transitory aspect of time because it hypothesizes that the increase of entropy is the thing that is ‘felt’ in veridical cases of felt passage. A four-dimensionalist theory of time travel is outlined, along with a sketch of large-scale cosmological traits of the universe.


Author(s):  
Mihály Fazekas ◽  
Luciana Cingolani ◽  
Bence Tóth

While there is continued interest in measuring governance, disagreement on how best to do so has only grown over time. To provide pointers at innovative and rigorous indicator building, this chapter documents innovations in measuring a particularly challenging governance dimension: corruption in public procurement. In hopes of inspiring future research, the chapter critically reviews objective corruption proxies using administrative data on government purchases falling in four broad categories: tendering risk indicators, political connections indicators, supplier risk indicators, and contracting body risk indicators. The findings indicate that the best measurement instruments focus on the transaction level (micro level) while allowing for consistent aggregations for time series and cross-country comparisons. Such actionable indicators capture behaviour as directly as possible rather than remaining at the country level. They also retain the relational or transactional aspects of governance, revealing a much more dynamic picture than widely used population and expert surveys.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  

Abstract Oral health is a central element of general health with significant impact in terms of pain, suffering, impairment of function and reduced quality of life. Although most oral disease can be prevented by health promotion strategies and routine access to primary oral health care, the GBD study 2017 estimated that oral diseases affect over 3.5 billion people worldwide (Watt et al, 2019). Given the importance of oral health and its potential contribution to achieving universal health coverage (UHC), it has received increased attention in public health debates in recent years. However, little is known about the large variations across countries in terms of service delivery, coverage and financing of oral health. There is a lack of international comparison and understanding of who delivers oral health services, how much is devoted to oral health care and who funds the costs for which type of treatment (Eaton et al., 2019). Yet, these aspects are central for understanding the scope for improvement regarding financial protection against costs of dental care and equal access to services in each country. This workshop aims to present the comparative research on dental care coverage in Europe, North America and Australia led by the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies. Three presentations will look at dental care coverage using different methods and approaches. They will compare how well the population is covered for dental care especially within Europe and North America considering the health systems design and expenditure level on dental care, using the WHO coverage cube as analytical framework. The first presentation shows results of a cross-country Health Systems in Transition (HiT) review on dental care. It provides a comparative review and analysis of financing, coverage and access in 31 European countries, describing the main trends also in the provision of dental care. The second presentation compares dental care coverage in eight jurisdictions (Australia (New South Wales), Canada (Alberta), England, France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and the United States) with a particular focus on older adults. The third presentation uses a vignette approach to map the extent of coverage of dental services offered by statutory systems (social insurance, compulsory insurance, NHS) in selected countries in Europe and North America. This workshop provides the opportunity of a focussed discussion on coverage of dental care, which is often neglected in the discussion on access to health services and universal health coverage. The objectives of the workshop are to discuss the oral health systems in an international comparative setting and to draw lessons on best practices and coverage design. The World Conference on Public Health is hence a good opportunity for this workshop that contributes to frame the discussion on oral health systems in a global perspective. Key messages There is large degree of variation in the extent to which the costs of dental care are covered by the statutory systems worldwide with implications for oral health outcomes and financial protection. There is a need for a more systematic collection of oral health indicators to make analysis of reliable and comparable oral health data possible.


Author(s):  
Katarzyna Krot ◽  
Iga Rudawska

Overconsumption of health care is an ever-present and complex problem in health systems. It is especially significant in countries in transition that assign relatively small budgets to health care. In these circumstances, trust in the health system and its institutions is of utmost importance. Many researchers have studied interpersonal trust. Relatively less attention, however, has been paid to public trust in health systems and its impact on overconsumption. Therefore, this paper seeks to identify and examine the link between public trust and the moral hazard experienced by the patient with regard to health care consumption. Moreover, it explores the mediating role of patient satisfaction and patient non-adherence. For these purposes, quantitative research was conducted based on a representative sample of patients in Poland. Interesting findings were made on the issues examined. Patients were shown not to overconsume health care if they trusted the system and were satisfied with their doctor-patient relationship. On the other hand, nonadherence to medical recommendations was shown to increase overuse of medical services. The present study contributes to the existing knowledge by identifying phenomena on the macro (public trust in health care) and micro (patient satisfaction and non-adherence) scales that modify patient behavior with regard to health care consumption. Our results also provide valuable knowledge for health system policymakers. They can be of benefit in developing communication plans at different levels of local government.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi Huo ◽  
Jing Chen ◽  
Shigui Ruan

Abstract Background The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan started in December 2019 and was under control by the end of March 2020 with a total of 50,006 confirmed cases by the implementation of a series of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including unprecedented lockdown of the city. This study analyzes the complete outbreak data from Wuhan, assesses the impact of these public health interventions, and estimates the asymptomatic, undetected and total cases for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Methods By taking different stages of the outbreak into account, we developed a time-dependent compartmental model to describe the dynamics of disease transmission and case detection and reporting. Model coefficients were parameterized by using the reported cases and following key events and escalated control strategies. Then the model was used to calibrate the complete outbreak data by using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. Finally we used the model to estimate asymptomatic and undetected cases and approximate the overall antibody prevalence level. Results We found that the transmission rate between Jan 24 and Feb 1, 2020, was twice as large as that before the lockdown on Jan 23 and 67.6% (95% CI [0.584,0.759]) of detectable infections occurred during this period. Based on the reported estimates that around 20% of infections were asymptomatic and their transmission ability was about 70% of symptomatic ones, we estimated that there were about 14,448 asymptomatic and undetected cases (95% CI [12,364,23,254]), which yields an estimate of a total of 64,454 infected cases (95% CI [62,370,73,260]), and the overall antibody prevalence level in the population of Wuhan was 0.745% (95% CI [0.693%,0.814%]) by March 31, 2020. Conclusions We conclude that the control of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan was achieved via the enforcement of a combination of multiple NPIs: the lockdown on Jan 23, the stay-at-home order on Feb 2, the massive isolation of all symptomatic individuals via newly constructed special shelter hospitals on Feb 6, and the large scale screening process on Feb 18. Our results indicate that the population in Wuhan is far away from establishing herd immunity and provide insights for other affected countries and regions in designing control strategies and planing vaccination programs.


2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 444-453
Author(s):  
Arturo Cervantes Trejo ◽  
Sophie Domenge Treuille ◽  
Isaac Castañeda Alcántara

AbstractThe Institute for Security and Social Services for State Workers (ISSSTE) is a large public provider of health care services that serve around 13.2 million Mexican government workers and their families. To attain process efficiencies, cost reductions, and improvement of the quality of diagnostic and imaging services, ISSSTE was set out in 2019 to create a digital filmless medical image and report management system. A large-scale clinical information system (CIS), including radiology information system (RIS), picture archiving and communication system (PACS), and clinical data warehouse (CDW) components, was implemented at ISSSTE’s network of forty secondary- and tertiary-level public hospitals, applying global HL-7 and Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) standards. In just 5 months, 40 hospitals had their endoscopy, radiology, and pathology services functionally interconnected within a national CIS and RIS/PACS on secure private local area networks (LANs) and a secure national wide area network (WAN). More than 2 million yearly studies and reports are now in digital form in a CDW, securely stored and always available. Benefits include increased productivity, reduced turnaround times, reduced need for duplicate exams, and reduced costs. Functional IT solutions allow ISSSTE hospitals to leave behind the use of radiographic film and printed medical reports with important cost reductions, as well as social and environmental impacts, leading to direct improvement in the quality of health care services rendered.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 704-704
Author(s):  
Yuchi Young ◽  
Barbara Resnick

Abstract The world population is aging. The proportion of the population over 60 will nearly double from 12% in 2015 to 22% in 2050. Global life expectancy has more than doubled from 31 years in 1900 to 72.6 years in 2019. The need for long-term care (LTC) services is expanding with the same rapidity. A comprehensive response is needed to address the needs of older adults. Learning from health systems in other countries enables health systems to incorporate best long-term care practices to fit each country and its culture. This symposium aims to compare long-term care policies and services in Taiwan, Singapore, and the USA where significant growth in aging populations is evidenced. In 2025, the aging population will be 20% in Taiwan, 20% in Singapore and 18 % in the USA. In the case of Taiwan, it has moved from aging society status to aged society, and to super-aged society in 27 years. Such accelerated rate of aging in Taiwan is unparalleled when compared to European countries and the United States. In response to this dramatic change, Taiwan has passed long-term care legislation that expands services to care for older adults, and developed person-centered health care that integrates acute and long-term care services. Some preliminary results related to access, care and patterns of utilization will be shared in the symposium. International Comparisons of Healthy Aging Interest Group Sponsored Symposium.


2021 ◽  
pp. 194855062199962
Author(s):  
Jennifer S. Trueblood ◽  
Abigail B. Sussman ◽  
Daniel O’Leary

Development of an effective COVID-19 vaccine is widely considered as one of the best paths to ending the current health crisis. While the ability to distribute a vaccine in the short-term remains uncertain, the availability of a vaccine alone will not be sufficient to stop disease spread. Instead, policy makers will need to overcome the additional hurdle of rapid widespread adoption. In a large-scale nationally representative survey ( N = 34,200), the current work identifies monetary risk preferences as a correlate of take-up of an anticipated COVID-19 vaccine. A complementary experiment ( N = 1,003) leverages this insight to create effective messaging encouraging vaccine take-up. Individual differences in risk preferences moderate responses to messaging that provides benchmarks for vaccine efficacy (by comparing it to the flu vaccine), while messaging that describes pro-social benefits of vaccination (specifically herd immunity) speeds vaccine take-up irrespective of risk preferences. Findings suggest that policy makers should consider risk preferences when targeting vaccine-related communications.


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