scholarly journals Wisdom of crowds detects COVID-19 severity ahead of officially available data

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Turiel ◽  
Delmiro Fernandez-Reyes ◽  
Tomaso Aste
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Novelty Detection ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Wisdom Of Crowds ◽  
Collective Wisdom ◽  
Peak Versus ◽  
Wisdom Of The Crowds

AbstractDuring the unfolding of a crisis, it is crucial to forecast its severity at an early stage , yet access to reliable data is often challenging early on. The wisdom of crowds has been effective at forecasting in similar scenarios. We investigated whether the initial regional social media reaction to the emerging COVID-19 pandemic in three critically affected countries has significant relations with their observed mortality a month later. We obtained COVID-19 related regionally geolocated tweets from Italian, Spanish, and United States regions. We quantified the predictive power of the wisdom of the crowds using correlations and regressions of geolocated Tweet Intensity (TI) during the initial social media attention peak versus the cumulative number of deaths a month ahead. We found that the intensity of initial COVID-19 related tweet attention at the beginning of the pandemic across Italian, Spanish, and United States regions is significantly related (p < 0.001) to the extent to which these regions had been affected by the pandemic a month later. This association is most striking in Italy as when at its peak of TI in late February 2020 only two of its regions had reported mortality. The collective wisdom of the crowds at early stages of the pandemic, when information on the number of infections was not broadly available, strikingly predicted the extent of mortality reflecting the regional severity of the pandemic almost a month later. Our findings could underpin the creation of real-time novelty detection systems aimed at early reporting of the severity of crises impacting a territory leading to early activation of control measures at a stage when available data is extremely limited.

scholarly journals Tracking the onset date of the community spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Western Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edson Delatorre ◽  
Daiana Mir ◽  
Tiago Gräf ◽  
Gonzalo Bello
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Onset Date ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Western Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
And Control ◽  
Precise Time

ABSTRACTThe SARS-CoV-2 rapidly spread around the world during 2020, but the precise time in which the virus began to spread locally is currently unknown for most countries. Here, we estimate the probable onset date of the community spread of SARS-CoV-2 from the cumulative number of deaths reported during the early stage of the epidemic in Western Europe and the Americas. Our results support that SARS-CoV-2 probably started to spread locally in all western countries analyzed between the middle of January and early February 2020, thus long before community transmission was officially recognized and control measures were implemented.

scholarly journals Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinghe Liu ◽  
Zhicheng Liu ◽  
Junkai Zhu ◽  
Yuhao Zhu ◽  
Deqiang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
The United States ◽  
Current Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Diagnosis Rate

ABSTRACTCOVID-19 is now widely spreading around the world as a global pandemic. In this report, we estimate the global tendency of COVID-19 and analyze the associated global epidemic risk, given that the status quo is continued without further measures being taken.The results show that the global R0, excluding China, is estimated to be 2.49 (95% CI: 2.15 – 2.92). The United States, Germany, Italy and Spain have peak values over 100,000. According to dynamical model and cluster analysis, we category the globe into four type regional epicenters of the outbreak: Southeast Asia extending southward to Oceania, the Middle East, Western Europe and North America. Among them, Western Europe will become the major center of the outbreak. The peak values in Germany, Italy and Spain are estimated to be 105,903, 127,283 and 152,539, respectively. The United States is the country with the most serious outbreak trend. Based on the current control measures by Mar. 27, 2020, the peak value in the United States will reach 400,892. Above all, if the current control measures are maintained, the cumulative number of patients worldwide will be 1,442,523 (95% CI: 1,052,577 – 8,981,440). We also estimated the diagnosis rate, recovery rate and infection degree of each country or region, and use clustering algorithm to retrieve countries or regions with similar epidemic characteristics. Different suggestions are proposed for countries or regions in different clusters.

A survey of Instagram users with asthma to evaluate the acceptability of a planned clinical trial intervention (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Spitzer ◽  
Brent Heineman ◽  
Marcella Jewell ◽  
Michael Moran ◽  
Peter Lindenauer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Health Care Providers ◽  
College Education ◽  
The United States ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Care Providers ◽  
Healthy Behaviors ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Hispanic White

BACKGROUND Asthma is a chronic lung disease that affects nearly 25 million individuals in the United States. There is a need for more research into the potential for health care providers to leverage existing social media platforms to improve healthy behaviors and support individuals living with chronic health conditions. OBJECTIVE In this study, we assess the willingness of Instagram users with poorly controlled asthma to participate in a pilot study that uses Instagram as a means of providing social and informational support. In addition, we explore the potential for adapting photovoice and digital storytelling to social media. METHODS A survey study of Instagram users living with asthma in the United States, between the ages of 18 to 40. RESULTS Over 3 weeks of recruitment, 457 individuals completed the pre-survey screener; 347 were excluded. Of the 110 people who were eligible and agreed to participate in the study, 82 completed the study survey. Respondents mean age was 21(SD = 5.3). Respondents were 56% female (n=46), 65% (n=53) non-Hispanic white, and 72% (n=59) had at least some college education. The majority of respondents (n = 66, 81%) indicated that they would be willing to participate in the study. CONCLUSIONS Among young-adult Instagram users with asthma there is substantial interest in participating in a study that uses Instagram to connect participants with peers and a health coach in order to share information about self-management of asthma and build social connection.

Lawyers as Activists

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C. Dorf ◽  
Michael S. Chu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Social Change ◽  
Civil Rights ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Court Action ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trump Administration

Lawyers played a key role in challenging the Trump administration’s Travel Ban on entry into the United States of nationals from various majority-Muslim nations. Responding to calls from nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), which were amplified by social media, lawyers responded to the Travel Ban’s chaotic rollout by providing assistance to foreign travelers at airports. Their efforts led to initial court victories, which in turn led the government to soften the Ban somewhat in two superseding executive actions. The lawyers’ work also contributed to the broader resistance to the Trump administration by dramatizing its bigotry, callousness, cruelty, and lawlessness. The efficacy of the lawyers’ resistance to the Travel Ban shows that, contrary to strong claims about the limits of court action, litigation can promote social change. General lessons about lawyer activism in ordinary times are difficult to draw, however, because of the extraordinary threat Trump poses to civil rights and the rule of law.

scholarly journals Stand against anti-Asian racial discrimination during COVID-19: A call for action

2020 ◽  
pp. 002087282097061
Author(s):  
Qin Gao ◽  
Xiaofang Liu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Racial Discrimination ◽  
Asian Americans ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Political Rhetoric ◽  
The United States ◽  
Psychological Well Being ◽  
Negative Impacts

Racial discrimination against people of Chinese and other Asian ethnicities has risen sharply in number and severity globally amid the COVID-19 pandemic. This rise has been especially rapid and severe in the United States, fueled by xenophobic political rhetoric and racist language on social media. It has endangered the lives of many Asian Americans and is likely to have long-term negative impacts on the economic, social, physical, and psychological well-being of Asian Americans. This essay reviews the prevalence and consequences of anti-Asian racial discrimination during COVID-19 and calls for actions in practice, policy, and research to stand against it.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Epidemic Preventive Policies and Hospital Strategies in Combating COVID-19 Outbreak in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 3456
Author(s):  
Ting Wan Tan ◽  
Han Ling Tan ◽  
Man Na Chang ◽  
Wen Shu Lin ◽  
Chih Ming Chang
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Risk Ratio ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Polymerase Chain Reaction Test ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Swab ◽  
Preventive Strategies ◽  
Epidemic Control

(1) Background: The implementation of effective control measures in a timely fashion is crucial to control the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we aimed to analyze the control measures implemented during the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as evaluating the responses and outcomes at different phases for epidemic control in Taiwan. (2) Methods: This case study reviewed responses to COVID-19 and the effectiveness of a range of control measures implemented for epidemic control in Taiwan and assessed all laboratory-confirmed cases between 11 January until 20 December 2020, inclusive of these dates. The confirmation of COVID-19 infection was defined as the positive result of a reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction test taken from a nasopharyngeal swab. Test results were reported by the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. The incidence rate, mortality rate, and testing rate were compiled, and the risk ratio was provided to gain insights into the effectiveness of prevention measures. (3) Results and Discussion: This study presents retrospective data on the COVID-19 incidence rate in Taiwan, combined with the vital preventive control measures, in a timeline of the early stage of the epidemic that occurred in Taiwan. The implementation of multiple strategy control measures and the assistance of technologies to control the COVID-19 epidemic in Taiwan led to a relatively slower trend in the outbreak compared to the neighboring countries. In Taiwan, 766 confirmed patients were included, comprised of 88.1% imported cases and 7.2% local transmission cases, within the studied period. The incidence rate of COVID-19 in Taiwan during the studied period was 32 per million people, with a mortality rate of 0.3 per million people. Our analysis showed a significantly raised incidence risk ratio in the countries of interest in comparison to Taiwan during the study period; in the range of 1.9 to 947.5. The outbreak was brought under control through epidemic policies and hospital strategies implemented by the Taiwan Government. (4) Conclusion: Taiwan’s preventive strategies resulted in a drastically lower risk for Taiwan nationals of contracting COVID-19 when new pharmaceutical drug or vaccines were not yet available. The preventive strategies employed by Taiwan could serve as a guide and reference for future epidemic control strategies.

scholarly journals Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuiyuan Guo ◽  
Dan Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Individual Based Model ◽  
Whole Process ◽  
Coordinate Descent Algorithm ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

AbstractWe established a stochastic individual-based model and simulated the whole process of occurrence, development, and control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and the infectors and patients leaving Hubei Province before the traffic was closed in China. Additionally, the basic reproduction number (R0) and number of infectors and patients who left Hubei were estimated using the coordinate descent algorithm. The median R0 at the initial stage of the epidemic was 4.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.82–5.17). Before the traffic lockdown was implemented in Hubei, 2000 (95% CI 1982–2030) infectors and patients had left Hubei and traveled throughout the country. The model estimated that if the government had taken prevention and control measures 1 day later, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in the whole country would have increased by 32.1%. If the lockdown of Hubei was imposed 1 day in advance, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in other provinces would have decreased by 7.7%. The stochastic model could fit the officially issued data well and simulate the evolution process of the epidemic. The intervention measurements nationwide have effectively curbed the human-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

scholarly journals Decline in Marriage Associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 237802312098032
Author(s):  
Brandon G. Wagner ◽  
Kate H. Choi ◽  
Philip N. Cohen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Know How ◽  
The Social ◽  
Reporting Delays ◽  
Social Upheaval ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Do So

In the social upheaval arising from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, we do not yet know how union formation, particularly marriage, has been affected. Using administration records—marriage certificates and applications—gathered from settings representing a variety of COVID-19 experiences in the United States, the authors compare counts of recorded marriages in 2020 against those from the same period in 2019. There is a dramatic decrease in year-to-date cumulative marriages in 2020 compared with 2019 in each case. Similar patterns are observed for the Seattle metropolitan area when analyzing the cumulative number of marriage applications, a leading indicator of marriages in the near future. Year-to-date declines in marriage are unlikely to be due solely to closure of government agencies that administer marriage certification or reporting delays. Together, these findings suggest that marriage has declined during the COVID-19 outbreak and may continue to do so, at least in the short term.

scholarly journals Identification of Vulnerable Populations and Areas at Higher Risk of COVID-19-Related Mortality during the Early Stage of the Epidemic in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 4021
Author(s):  
Esteban Correa-Agudelo ◽  
Tesfaye B. Mersha ◽  
Adam J. Branscum ◽  
Neil J. MacKinnon ◽  
Diego F. Cuadros
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vulnerable Populations ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Average ◽  
Health Determinants ◽  
White Population ◽  
Latino Population ◽  
Related Mortality

We characterized vulnerable populations located in areas at higher risk of COVID-19-related mortality and low critical healthcare capacity during the early stage of the epidemic in the United States. We analyze data obtained from a Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 database to assess the county-level spatial variation of COVID-19-related mortality risk during the early stage of the epidemic in relation to health determinants and health infrastructure. Overall, we identified highly populated and polluted areas, regional air hub areas, race minorities (non-white population), and Hispanic or Latino population with an increased risk of COVID-19-related death during the first phase of the epidemic. The 10 highest COVID-19 mortality risk areas in highly populated counties had on average a lower proportion of white population (48.0%) and higher proportions of black population (18.7%) and other races (33.3%) compared to the national averages of 83.0%, 9.1%, and 7.9%, respectively. The Hispanic and Latino population proportion was higher in these 10 counties (29.3%, compared to the national average of 9.3%). Counties with major air hubs had a 31% increase in mortality risk compared to counties with no airport connectivity. Sixty-eight percent of the counties with high COVID-19-related mortality risk also had lower critical care capacity than the national average. The disparity in health and environmental risk factors might have exacerbated the COVID-19-related mortality risk in vulnerable groups during the early stage of the epidemic.

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