Assessing the effect of a fuel break network to reduce burnt area and wildfire risk transmission

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiago M. Oliveira ◽  
Ana M. G. Barros ◽  
Alan A. Ager ◽  
Paulo M. Fernandes
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Option ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Risk Governance ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Fuel Treatments ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Burn Probability ◽  
Large Fires

Wildfires pose complex challenges to policymakers and fire agencies. Fuel break networks and area-wide fuel treatments are risk-management options to reduce losses from large fires. Two fuel management scenarios covering 3% of the fire-prone Algarve region of Portugal and differing in the intensity of treatment in 120-m wide fuel breaks were examined and compared with the no-treatment option. We used the minimum travel time algorithm to simulate the growth of 150 000 fires under the weather conditions historically associated with large fires. Fuel break passive effects on burn probability, area burned, fire size distribution and fire transmission among 20 municipalities were analysed. Treatments decreased large-fire incidence and reduced overall burnt area up to 17% and burn probability between 4% and 31%, depending on fire size class and treatment option. Risk transmission among municipalities varied with community. Although fire distribution shifted and large events were less frequent, mean treatment leverage was very low (1 : 26), revealing a very high cost–benefit ratio and the need for engaging forest owners to act in complementary area-wide fuel treatments. The study assessed the effectiveness of a mitigating solution in a complex socioecological system, contributing to a better-informed wildland fire risk governance process among stakeholders.

Spatial pattern analyses of post-fire residual stands in the black spruce boreal forest of western Quebec

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amar Madoui ◽  
Alain Leduc ◽  
Sylvie Gauthier ◽  
Yves Bergeron
Keyword(s):  
Black Spruce ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Spatial Analyses ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
The West ◽  
Forest Patches ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
The Many ◽  
Landsat Satellite

In this study, we characterised the composition and configuration of post-fire residual habitats belonging to two physiographic zones of the black spruce–moss domain in western Quebec. Thirty-three large fires (2000–52 000 ha) were selected and extracted on classified Landsat satellite imagery. The results show that a minimum of 2% and a maximum of 22% of burned areas escaped fire, with an overall average of 10.4%. The many forest patches that partially or entirely escaped fire formed residual habitats (RHs). It was found that although the area of RHs follows a linear relationship with fire size, their proportion appears relatively constant. Spatial analyses showed that the fires could be separated into two groups depending on the physiographic zones (East-Canadian Shield v. West-Clay Belt Lowlands). Fires in the west zone generate less RHs and appear to be associated with more extreme weather conditions. In most cases there was no association with water or wetlands; in some fires the presence of RHs is associated with the proximity of water bodies. The failure to find an association between RHs and wetlands suggests that this type of environment is part of the fuel. Coniferous woodland with moss appears particularly overrepresented within RHs. Our results suggest that the local and regional physiographic conditions strongly influence the creation of RHs; therefore, it is important to consider those differences when applying ecosystem-based management.

scholarly journals Statistical modelling of wildfire size and intensity: a step toward meteorological forecasting of summer extreme fire risk

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (12) ◽  
pp. 1495-1506 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Hernandez ◽  
C. Keribin ◽  
P. Drobinski ◽  
S. Turquety
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Conditional Density ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Rainfall Occurrence ◽  
Radiative Power ◽  
Fire Radiative Power

Abstract. In this article we investigate the use of statistical methods for wildfire risk assessment in the Mediterranean Basin using three meteorological covariates, the 2 m temperature anomaly, the 10 m wind speed and the January–June rainfall occurrence anomaly. We focus on two remotely sensed characteristic fire variables, the burnt area (BA) and the fire radiative power (FRP), which are good proxies for fire size and intensity respectively. Using the fire data we determine an adequate parametric distribution function which fits best the logarithm of BA and FRP. We reconstruct the conditional density function of both variables with respect to the chosen meteorological covariates. These conditional density functions for the size and intensity of a single event give information on fire risk and can be used for the estimation of conditional probabilities of exceeding certain thresholds. By analysing these probabilities we find two fire risk regimes different from each other at the 90 % confidence level: a "background" summer fire risk regime and an "extreme" additional fire risk regime, which corresponds to higher probability of occurrence of larger fire size or intensity associated with specific weather conditions. Such a statistical approach may be the ground for a future fire risk alert system.

Fire weather thresholds and burnt area in Portugal

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomás Calheiros ◽  
Akli Benali ◽  
João Neves Silva ◽  
Mário Pereira ◽  
João Pedro Nunes
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Large Fires

<p>Fire strongly depends on the weather, especially in Mediterranean climate regions with rainy winters but dry and hot summers, as in Portugal. Fire weather indices are commonly used to assess the current and/or cumulative effect of weather conditions on fuel moisture and fire behaviour. The Daily Severity Rating (DSR) is a numeric rating of the difficulty of controlling fires, based on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), developed to accurately assess the expected efforts required for fire suppression. Recently, the 90th percentile of DSR (90pDSR) was identified as a good indicator of extreme fire weather and well related to the burnt area in some regions of the Iberian Peninsula. The purposes of this work were: 1) to verify if this threshold is adequate for all continental Portugal; 2) to identify and characterize local variations of this threshold, at a higher spatial resolution; and, 3) to analyse other variables that can explain this spatial heterogeneity.</p><p>We used fire data from the Portuguese Institute for the Conservation of Nature and Forests and weather data from ERA5, for the 2001 – 2019 study period. We also used the Land Use and Occupation Charter for 2018 (COS2018), provided by the Directorate-General for Territory, to assess land use and cover in Portugal. The meteorological variables to compute the DSR are air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and daily accumulated precipitation, at 12 UTC. DSR percentiles (DSRp) were computed for summer period (between 15<sup>th</sup> May and 31<sup>st</sup> October) and combined with large (>100 ha) burnt areas (BA), with the purpose to identify which DSRp value is responsible of a large amount of BA (80 or 90%). Cluster analysis was performed using the relation between DSRp and BA, in each municipality of Continental Portugal.</p><p>Results reveal that the 90pDSR is an adequate threshold for the entire territory. However, at the municipalities’ level, some important differences appear between DSRp thresholds that explain 90 and 80% of the total BA. Cluster analysis shows that these differences justified the existence of several statistically significant clusters. Generally, municipalities where large fires take place in high or very high DSRp are located in north and central coastal areas, Serra da Estrela, Serra de Montejunto and Algarve. In contrast, clusters where large fires where registered with low DSRp appear in northern and central hinterland. COS2018 data was assessed to analyse if and how the vegetation cover type influences the clusters’ distribution and affects the relationship between DSRp and total BA. Preliminary results expose a possible vegetation influence, especially between forests and shrublands.</p>

scholarly journals Two thresholds determine climatic control of forest-fire size in Europe

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 9065-9089 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Loepfe ◽  
A. Rodrigo ◽  
F. Lloret
Keyword(s):  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Fire Extent

Abstract. Fire weather indices predict fire extent from meteorological conditions assuming a monotonic function; this approach is frequently used to predict future fire patterns under climate change scenarios using linear extrapolation. However, the relationship between weather and fire extent may potentially depend on the existence of fuel humidity thresholds above which this relationship changes dramatically, challenging this statistical approach. Here we combine the continuous and the threshold approaches to analyze satellite-detected fires in Europe during 2001–2010 in relation to meteorological conditions, showing that fire size response to increasing dryness follows a ramp function, i.e. with two plateaus separated by a phase of monotonic increase. This study confirms that at a continental and a high-resolution temporal scales, large fires are very unlikely to occur under moist conditions, but it also reveals that fire size stops to be controlled by fuel humidity above a given threshold of dryness. Thus, fuel humidity control only applies when fire is not limited by other factors such as fuel load, as large fires are virtually absent in dry regions with less than 500 mm of average annual rainfall, i.e. where fuel amount is insufficient. In regions with sufficient fuel, other factors such as fire suppression or fuel discontinuity can impede large fires even under very dry weather conditions. These findings are relevant under current climatic trends in which the fire season length, in terms of number of days with DC (drought code) values above the observed thresholds (break points), is increasing in many parts of the Mediterranean, while it is decreasing in Eastern Europe and remains unchanged in Central Europe.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Management Options on Water Allocation in River Mubuku-Sebwe Sub-Catchments of Lake Edward-George Basin, Western Uganda

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2009
Author(s):  
Caroline Ednah Mwebaze ◽  
Jackson-Gilbert Mwanjalolo Majaliwa ◽  
Joshua Wanyama ◽  
Geoffrey Gabiri
Keyword(s):  
Water Use ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Water Allocation ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Available Water ◽  
Lake Edward ◽  
Western Uganda ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sustainable Water Resources

Limited studies in East Africa and particularly in Uganda have been carried out to determine and map water use and demands. This study aimed at assessing the impact of management options on sustainable water allocation in environmentally sensitive catchments of Mubuku and Sebwe of Lake Edward-George basin in Western Uganda. We used hydro-meteorological data analysis techniques to quantify the available water. We applied Mike Hydro model to allocate water to the different ongoing developments in the catchment based on 2015 and 2040 water demand management scenarios. We used the Nile Basin Decision Support System to assess the sustainability of the different water management scenarios for sustainable water resources use. Reliability computation did not consider hydropower in this study. Results show that water available in 2015 was 60 MCM/YR and 365 MCM/YR for Sebwe and Mubuku, respectively and is projected to decrease by 15% and 11% by the year 2040 under climate scenario RCP8.5. We project water demand to rise by 64% for domestic, 44% for livestock, 400% for industry, 45% for hydro power and 66% for irrigation by 2040. Mubuku water demand is projected to increase from 5.2 MCM in 2015 to 10.7 MCM in 2040. Mubuku available water is projected to fall from 364.8 to 329.8 MCM per annum. Sebwe water demand is projected to increase from 9.7 MCM in 2015 to 22.2 MCM in 2040 and its available water is projected to fall from 60 to 52 MCM per annum by the year 2040 from 2015. Water managers ought to allocate water based on the reliable water allocation which prioritizes domestic and environmental water demands, allocates 90% of industrial demand, 70% of irrigation and 60% of livestock demand. We recommend institutionalizing this model to guide water allocation in the Mubuku-Sebwe sub catchments. Water users should employ more efficient water use techniques to achieve high reliability and sustainable water resources management.

scholarly journals Nonoperative Treatment of Appendicitis during Pregnancy in a Remote Area

2018 ◽  
Vol 08 (01) ◽  
pp. e37-e38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Kathrine Carstens ◽  
Lise Fensby ◽  
Luit Penninga
Keyword(s):  
Antibiotic Treatment ◽  
Treatment Option ◽  
Fetal Loss ◽  
Surgical Care ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Nonoperative Treatment ◽  
Definitive Treatment ◽  
Bridge To Surgery ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Geographical Distances

AbstractAppendicitis is the most common nonobstetric surgical disease during pregnancy. Appendicitis during pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of morbidity and perforation compared with the general population. Furthermore, it may cause preterm birth and fetal loss, and quick surgical intervention is the established treatment option in pregnant women with appendicitis. In Greenland, geographical distances are very large, and weather conditions can be extreme, and surgical care is not always immediately available. Hence, antibiotic treatment is often initiated as a bridge-to-surgery. We report on a pregnant Greenlandic Inuit woman with appendicitis who was treated with intravenous antibiotics. Antibiotic treatment was successful before surgical care became available and the patient was not operated. No complications occurred, and further pregnancy was uneventful. Our case suggests that antibiotic treatment of appendicitis during pregnancy as a bridge-to-surgery may be a sensible treatment option in remote areas, where no surgical care is immediately available. In some cases, antibiotic treatment may turn out to be definitive treatment.

Examining management scenarios to mitigate wildfire hazard to caribou conservation projects using burn probability modeling

2019 ◽  
Vol 233 ◽  
pp. 238-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Stockdale ◽  
Quinn Barber ◽  
Amit Saxena ◽  
Marc-André Parisien
Keyword(s):  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Probability Modeling ◽  
Wildfire Hazard ◽  
Burn Probability ◽  
Conservation Projects

scholarly journals The history and characteristics of the 1980–2005 Portuguese rural fire database

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3343-3358 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. G. Pereira ◽  
B. D. Malamud ◽  
R. M. Trigo ◽  
P. I. Alves
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Unit Area ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Minimum Area ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Forested Areas ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Burnt Areas

Abstract. We focus here on a mainland Continental Portuguese Rural Fire Database (PRFD) that includes 450 000 fires, the largest such database in Europe in terms of total number of recorded fires in the 1980–2005 period. In this work, we (a) list the most important factors for triggering and controlling the fire regime in mainland Continental Portugal, (b) describe the dataset's production, (c) discuss procedures adopted to identify and correct different fire data inconsistencies, creating a modified PRFD which we use here and make available as Supplement, (d) explore some basic temporal and completeness properties of the data. We find that the dataset's minimum measured burnt areas have changed with time between AF = 0.1 ha (1980–1990), AF = 0.01 ha (1991–1992), and AF = 0.001 ha (1992–2005), with varying degrees of completeness down to these values. These changes in minimum area measured are responsible for greater numbers of fires being recorded. A relatively small number of large fires in the PRFD are responsible for the majority of the burnt area. For example, fires with AF > 100 ha represent about 1% of all fire records but 75% of total burnt area. Finally, we consider for each Continental Portugal district and for the 26-yr period, the total number of rural fires and area burnt in forests and shrublands, each normalized by district areas. We find that the highest numbers of fires per unit area are in highly populated districts, and that the largest fraction of burnt area is in forested areas, coinciding with large parcels of continuous forests (predominantly rural and moderately urban areas).

scholarly journals The Climate Change Impact of Possible Municipal Solic Waste Management Scenarios in Estonia

2017 ◽  
pp. 78
Author(s):  
Harri Moora ◽  
Evelin Urbel-Piirsalu ◽  
Viktoria Voronova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Waste Management ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Municipal Waste ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Change Impact

Waste management has an influence on the greenhouse gas (GHG) formation. The emissions of greenhouse gases vary between the EU countries depending on waste treatment practices and other regional factors such us composition of waste. The aim of this paper was to examine, from a life-cycle perspective, Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management in the context of greenhouse gas formation and to evaluate the possible reduction of climate change potential of alternative waste management options in Estonia. The paper summarises the results of a case study in Estonia, assessing the climate change impact by 2020 in terms of net greenhouse gas emissions from two possible management scenarios. As a result it can be concluded that better management of municipal waste and diversion of municipal waste away from landfills could significantly reduce the emissions of GHG and, if high rates of recycling and incineration with energy recovery are attained, the net greenhouse gas emissions may even become negative. It means that these waste management options can partly offset the emissions that occurred when the products were manufactured from virgin materials and energy was produced from fossil fuels. This is especially important concerning the climate change impact.

scholarly journals Assessment of Soil Suitability for Improvement of Soil Factors and Agricultural Management

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sameh Abd-Elmabod ◽  
Noura Bakr ◽  
Miriam Muñoz-Rojas ◽  
Paulo Pereira ◽  
Zhenhua Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Sustainable Land Use ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Soil Suitability ◽  
Soil Variables ◽  
Soil Systems ◽  
Notable Increase

The dramatic growth of the world’s population is increasing the pressure on natural resources, particularly on soil systems. At the same time, inappropriate agricultural practices are causing widespread soil degradation. Improved management of soil resources and identification of the potential agricultural capability of soils is therefore needed to prevent further land degradation, particularly in dryland areas such as Egypt. Here, we present a case study in the El-Fayoum depression (Northern Egypt) to model and map soil suitability for 12 typical Mediterranean crops. Two management scenarios were analyzed: the current situation (CS) and an optimal scenario (OS) of soil variables. The Almagra model was applied to estimate soil suitability under CS and OS. Management options based on the CS assessment were proposed to reduce some limiting factors: a fixed value of 2 dSm−1 for soil salinity and 5% for sodium saturation; these defined the OS. Under optimal management, the OS scenario showed potential, where a notable increase of the area covered by a high suitability class (around 80%) for annual and semi-annual crops was observed. There was also a marked increase (about 70% for CS and 50% for OS) for perennial crops shifting from the marginal to moderate soil suitability class. The results reveal the importance of proper management to massively alter soil suitability into better states in order to achieve sustainable land use in this fertile agro-ecosystem.

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