scholarly journals Linking urban scenarios with energy simulations for dense urban planning under climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 2042 (1) ◽  
pp. 012054
Author(s):  
J Felkner ◽  
B Marshall ◽  
S Richter ◽  
E Mbata ◽  
S Zigmund ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Computational Tools ◽  
Energy Simulations ◽  
Scale Design

Abstract This research aims at linking Urban Planning, Energy Simulations and Climate Change projections into the year 2100 for hot climates. The workflow of going back and forth between urban and city scale plans and individual neighborhood parcels to building scale, for the sake of simulating energy demand for a given city into the future is complex. It is prone to rely on many assumptions and simplifications in order to aid the simulations. In this work, we streamline the process with new computational tools, with the goal of communicating a more precise impact of building scale and neighborhood morphological scale design and retrofit strategies in order to meet energy reduction and carbon emission targets focusing on 2030, 2050 and 2100. Urban scenarios are developed using Envision Tomorrow. The building archetypes used therein are associated with energy demand profiles which we simulate using EnergyPlus for various climate change scenarios to improve the forecasting ability of Envision Tomorrow. Denser developments yield far lower neighborhood energy use.

Generating test reference years from the UKCP09 projections and their application in building energy simulations

2011 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 387-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
H Du ◽  
CP Underwood ◽  
JS Edge
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Research Groups ◽  
Future Time ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Energy Simulations ◽  
Operative Temperatures

In this study, test reference year (TRY) data for three UK cities are generated from the new UKCP09 climate change projections 1 for a variety of future time horizons and carbon emission scenario assumptions. The data are applied to the energy simulation of three commercial buildings and one house for the three city locations (London, Manchester and Edinburgh), three future time horizons in this century and three carbon emission scenarios. Results are compared with those generated using alternative TRYs from two other research groups who used UKCP09 1 as well as with the existing TRY data sets which form the CIBSE Future Weather Years 2 in order to produce robust results. Results of future simulations of peak summer operative temperatures, peak cooling demand, annual cooling energy, peak heating demand and annual heating energy are presented for the four building case studies benchmarked against control weather data for the period 1960–1989. The results show increasing internal operative temperatures (non-air-conditioned) and increasing air-conditioning demands (air-conditioned) throughout this century and though peak heating demands remain similar to control data, annual heating energy consumptions can be expected to fall sharply. Practical applications: Currently, practitioners can use Test Reference Years for use in building energy simulations. In 2009, the CIBSE released Future Weather Years, which go further by allowing practitioners to explore the thermal and comfort behaviour of buildings at future time horizons thus helping to ‘future proof’ a design. In 2009, the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme released a new generation of climate change scenario data (the UKCP09 climate change projections) using probabilistic methods. These are the most comprehensive data yet and provides a greater degree of detail than was available to generate the CIBSE Future Weather Years. It is therefore likely that the new data will gradually become the normal basis for investigating future building thermal and comfort response. In this study, a sample of TRY is generated from the UKCP09 data and applied to the simulation of a sample of ‘real’ buildings. The results are compared with both the existing CIBSE Future Weather Years as well as with Test Reference Years generated using UKCP09 by two other research groups. The results provide a robust way forward for simulating building thermal and comfort response using future weather data.

scholarly journals Overheating Risk and Energy Demand of Nordic Old and New Apartment Buildings during Average and Extreme Weather Conditions under a Changing Climate

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 3972
Author(s):  
Azin Velashjerdi Farahani ◽  
Juha Jokisalo ◽  
Natalia Korhonen ◽  
Kirsti Jylhä ◽  
Kimmo Ruosteenoja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Living Room ◽  
Extra Energy ◽  
Cooling Unit ◽  
Indoor Conditions

The global average air temperature is increasing as a manifestation of climate change and more intense and frequent heatwaves are expected to be associated with this rise worldwide, including northern Europe. Summertime indoor conditions in residential buildings and the health of occupants are influenced by climate change, particularly if no mechanical cooling is used. The energy use of buildings contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions. It is, therefore, necessary to analyze the effects of climate change on the overheating risk and energy demand of residential buildings and to assess the efficiency of various measures to alleviate the overheating. In this study, simulations of dynamic energy and indoor conditions in a new and an old apartment building are performed using two climate scenarios for southern Finland, one for average and the other for extreme weather conditions in 2050. The evaluated measures against overheating included orientations, blinds, site shading, window properties, openable windows, the split cooling unit, and the ventilation cooling and ventilation boost. In both buildings, the overheating risk is high in the current and projected future average climate and, in particular, during exceptionally hot summers. The indoor conditions are occasionally even injurious for the health of occupants. The openable windows and ventilation cooling with ventilation boost were effective in improving the indoor conditions, during both current and future average and extreme weather conditions. However, the split cooling unit installed in the living room was the only studied solution able to completely prevent overheating in all the spaces with a fairly small amount of extra energy usage.

scholarly journals Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 715
Author(s):  
Cristina Andrade ◽  
Sandra Mourato ◽  
João Ramos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Cooling Degree Days ◽  
Heating Energy Demand

Climate change is expected to influence cooling and heating energy demand of residential buildings and affect overall thermal comfort. Towards this end, the heating (HDD) and cooling (CDD) degree-days along with HDD + CDD were computed from an ensemble of seven high-resolution bias-corrected simulations attained from EURO-CORDEX under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). These three indicators were analyzed for 1971–2000 (from E-OBS) and 2011–2040, and 2041–2070, under both RCPs. Results predict a decrease in HDDs most significant under RCP8.5. Conversely, it is projected an increase of CDD values for both scenarios. The decrease in HDDs is projected to be higher than the increase in CDDs hinting to an increase in the energy demand to cool internal environments in Portugal. Statistically significant linear CDD trends were only found for 2041–2070 under RCP4.5. Towards 2070, higher(lower) CDD (HDD and HDD + CDD) anomaly amplitudes are depicted, mainly under RCP8.5. Within the five NUTS II

scholarly journals Urban Geometry Optimization to Mitigate Climate Change: Towards Energy-Efficient Buildings

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Hatem Mahmoud ◽  
Ayman Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Thermal Efficiency ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Urban Geometry ◽  
Outdoor Spaces ◽  
The Impact

The density of building blocks and insufficient greenery in cities tend to contribute dramatically not only to increased heat stress in the built environment but also to higher energy demand for cooling. Urban planners should, therefore, be conscious of their responsibility to reduce energy usage of buildings along with improving outdoor thermal efficiency. This study examines the impact of numerous proposed urban geometry cases on the thermal efficiency of outer spaces as well as the energy consumption of adjacent buildings under various climate change scenarios as representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate projections for New Aswan city in 2035. The investigation was performed at one of the most underutilized outdoor spaces on the new campus of Aswan University in New Aswan city. The potential reduction of heat stress was investigated so as to improve the thermal comfort of the investigated outdoor spaces, as well as energy savings based on the proposed strategies. Accordingly, the most appropriate scenario to be adopted to cope with the inevitable climate change was identified. The proposed scenarios were divided into four categories of parameters. In the first category, shelters partially (25–50% and 75%) covering the streets were used. The second category proposed dividing the space parallel or perpendicular to the existing buildings. The third category was a hybrid scenario of the first and second categories. In the fourth category, a green cover of grass was added. A coupling evaluation was applied utilizing ENVI-met v4.2 and Design-Builder v4.5 to measure and improve the thermal efficiency of the outdoor space and reduce the cooling energy. The results demonstrated that it is better to cover outdoor spaces with 50% of the overall area than transform outdoor spaces into canyons.

scholarly journals The environmental and economic implications of the climate change and extractive industry nexus in Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 95-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ademola Oluborode Jegede
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Extractive Industry ◽  
Extractive Sector ◽  
Economic Considerations

Climate change and extractive industry are two important global streams that are linked to each other in that risks associated with the former can adversely affect different areas of the extractive sector, while the activities of the latter can contribute to climate change. Yet, this nexus is hardly clearly articulated in the context of implications for the environment and economic considerations in Africa. Assessing key literature on the two themes, the paper argues that the link of extractive industry with climate change can have both negative and positive implications for environmental protection and the economy in Africa. The nexus of climate change and the extractive sector can be negative in that unsustainable extractive processes in terms of their outcome of deforestation and energy use are an important source of carbon emission contributing to global warming. The nexus can be positive in that it involves initiatives that can contribute to sustainable extractive sector and thereby reduce carbon emissions underlying climate change. Keywords: Africa, climate change, extractive sector, environmental protection, economic implications. JEL Classification: Q51, Q58, N5

scholarly journals Grapevine Phenology of cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional in the Douro Wine Region: Modelling and Climate Change Projections

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Costa ◽  
Helder Fraga ◽  
André Fonseca ◽  
Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri ◽  
Maria C. Val ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Wine Region

Projections of grapevine phenophases under future climate change scenarios are strategic decision support tools for viticulturists and wine producers. Several phenological models are tested for budburst, flowering, and veraison and for two main grapevine varieties (cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional) growing in the Douro Demarcated Region. Four forcing models (Growing degree-days, Richardson, Sigmoid, and Wang) and three dormancy models (Bidabe, Smoothed Utah and Chuine), with different parameterizations and combinations, are used. New datasets, combing phenology with weather station data, widespread over the Douro wine region, were used for this purpose. The eight best performing models and parameterizations were selected for each phenophase and variety, based on performance metrics. For both cultivars, results revealed moderate performances (0.4 < R2 < 0.7) for budburst, while high performances (R2 > 0.7) were found for flowering and veraison, particularly when Growing degree-days or Sigmoid models are used, respectively. Climate change projections were based on a two-member climate model ensemble from the EURO-CORDEX project under RCP4.5. Projections depicted an anticipation of phenophase timings by 6, 8 or 10–12 days until the end of the century for budburst, flowering, and veraison, respectively. The inter-model variability is of approximately 2–4 days for flowering and veraison and 4–6 days for budburst. These results establish grounds for the implementation of a decision support system for monitoring and short-term prediction of grapevine phenology, thus promoting a more efficient viticulture.

scholarly journals Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Building Heating and Cooling Energy Use in Toronto

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pouriya Jafarpur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Existing Building ◽  
Average Decrease ◽  
The Future

The study describes the results of climate change impact assessment on building energy use in Toronto, Canada. Accordingly, three future weather data sets are generated and applied to the energy simulation of 16 building prototypes. Both statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques are used to generate the future weather files. The results indicate an average decrease for the future in the range of 18-33% in heating EUI, and an average increase of 16-126% in cooling EUI, depending on the baseline climate and building type. In addition, the GHG emissions for each building model are presented. It is concluded that the application of future weather files for building performance simulation leads to a better quantification of building energy demand in the future than a historical weather file. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the need to modify and adapt existing building modelling regulations and to plan future building according to the future climate.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Three Indicator Galliformes Species in The Northern Highlands of Pakistan

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Babar Zahoor ◽  
Xuehua Liu ◽  
Melissa Songer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Forested Landscapes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Northern Highlands

Abstract Global temperatures are predicted to rise from between 1.4 to 5.8°C by 21st century, which could result in a 20 to 30% extinction of species. The negative impacts of climate change on the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition. Range shifts and range reduction in the forested landscapes will dramatically affect the distribution of forest dwelling species, including the Galliformes (ground birds). Three Galliformes (e.g., Lophophorus impejanus, Pucrasia macrolopha and Tragopan melanocephalus) are indicator species of the environment and currently distributed in NHP. For this study, we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to simulate the current and future (in 2050 and 2070) distributions of the species using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 (moderate carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (peak carbon emission scenario). Our results indicated that (i) all the three species would be negatively affected by the climate change in 2050 and in 2070. (ii) Under all three climate scenarios, species distribution was predicted to both reduce and shift towards higher altitudes. (iii) Across the provinces in the NHP, the species were predicted to lose over one quarter in 2050 and one-third by 2070 of the current suitable habitat. (iv) The maximum area of climate refugia was projected between the altitudinal range of 2000 m to 4000 m and predicted to shift towards higher altitudes primarily >3000 m in the future. The proposed implications such as establishment and upgradation of the protected areas, ban on hunting, timber mafia and temporary settlements of the local people in the forested landscapes should be under special consideration to mitigate the impact of climate change.

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