scholarly journals Update now or later? Effects of experience, cost, and risk preference on update decisions

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Prashanth Rajivan ◽  
Efrat Aharonov-Majar ◽  
Cleotilde Gonzalez
Keyword(s):  
Risk Preference ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Knowing That ◽  
The Status ◽  
Software Updates ◽  
How People Learn ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Installing software updates is one of the most important security actions that people can take to protect their computer systems. However, people often delay installing updates. Why would people delay installation of security updates, knowing that these updates may reduce the risk of information loss from attacks? In a laboratory experiment, we studied how people learn to make update decisions from past experiences. In a simulated “work” environment, participants could defend against low probability and high impact losses, by installing a security update. The cost of updates was variable; participants could update immediately for a high cost or wait to update for free, risking increased exposure to attacks and losses. Thus, the optimal decision was to update immediately when the update was made available. The results from our experiment indicate people learn from experience to delay security updates. The cost of the update and individual risk preference both significantly predicted the tendency to delay the update; people with higher willingness to take risks may be more likely to neglect to update, keeping the status quo even when it may be sub-optimal. We discuss the implications of these findings for the design of interventions to reduce delays in update installations.

Case Study—Failure Analysis of a Multiplexer

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Woo ◽  
Marcos Campos ◽  
Luigi Aranda
Keyword(s):  
Failure Analysis ◽  
High Reliability ◽  
Component Failure ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
Knowing That ◽  
Cause Of Failure ◽  
The Cost

Abstract A component failure has the potential to significantly impact the cost, manufacturing schedule, and/or the perceived reliability of a system, especially if the root cause of the failure is not known. A failure analysis is often key to mitigating the effects of a componentlevel failure to a customer or a system; minimizing schedule slips, minimizing related accrued costs to the customer, and allowing for the completion of the system with confidence that the reliability of the product had not been compromised. This case study will show how a detailed and systemic failure analysis was able to determine the exact cause of failure of a multiplexer in a high-reliability system, which allowed the manufacturer to confidently proceed with production knowing that the failure was not a systemic issue, but rather that it was a random “one time” event.

scholarly journals A METHODOLOGY TO SUPPORT COMPANIES IN THE FIRST STEPS TOWARDS DE-MANUFACTURING

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 131-140
Author(s):  
Federica Cappelletti ◽  
Marta Rossi ◽  
Michele Germani ◽  
Mohammad Shadman Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impact ◽  
End Of Life ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Life Strategies ◽  
Disassembly Sequence ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Technical Solutions ◽  
First Time ◽  
Complex Activities

AbstractDe-manufacturing and re-manufacturing are fundamental technical solutions to efficiently recover value from post-use products. Disassembly in one of the most complex activities in de-manufacturing because i) the more manual it is the higher is its cost, ii) disassembly times are variable due to uncertainty of conditions of products reaching their EoL, and iii) because it is necessary to know which components to disassemble to balance the cost of disassembly. The paper proposes a methodology that finds ways of applications: it can be applied at the design stage to detect space for product design improvements, and it also represents a baseline from organizations approaching de-manufacturing for the first time. The methodology consists of four main steps, in which firstly targets components are identified, according to their environmental impact; secondly their disassembly sequence is qualitatively evaluated, and successively it is quantitatively determined via disassembly times, predicting also the status of the component at their End of Life. The aim of the methodology is reached at the fourth phase when alternative, eco-friendlier End of Life strategies are proposed, verified, and chosen.

scholarly journals Cost-efficiency assessments of marine monitoring methods lack rigor—a systematic mapping of literature and an end-user view on optimal cost-efficiency analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 193 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heini Hyvärinen ◽  
Annaliina Skyttä ◽  
Susanna Jernberg ◽  
Kristian Meissner ◽  
Harri Kuosa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Studies ◽  
Cost Efficiency ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Actual Cost ◽  
Monitoring Methods ◽  
Monitoring Method ◽  
Marine Monitoring ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Cost

AbstractGlobal deterioration of marine ecosystems, together with increasing pressure to use them, has created a demand for new, more efficient and cost-efficient monitoring tools that enable assessing changes in the status of marine ecosystems. However, demonstrating the cost-efficiency of a monitoring method is not straightforward as there are no generally applicable guidelines. Our study provides a systematic literature mapping of methods and criteria that have been proposed or used since the year 2000 to evaluate the cost-efficiency of marine monitoring methods. We aimed to investigate these methods but discovered that examples of actual cost-efficiency assessments in literature were rare, contradicting the prevalent use of the term “cost-efficiency.” We identified five different ways to compare the cost-efficiency of a marine monitoring method: (1) the cost–benefit ratio, (2) comparative studies based on an experiment, (3) comparative studies based on a literature review, (4) comparisons with other methods based on literature, and (5) subjective comparisons with other methods based on experience or intuition. Because of the observed high frequency of insufficient cost–benefit assessments, we strongly advise that more attention is paid to the coverage of both cost and efficiency parameters when evaluating the actual cost-efficiency of novel methods. Our results emphasize the need to improve the reliability and comparability of cost-efficiency assessments. We provide guidelines for future initiatives to develop a cost-efficiency assessment framework and suggestions for more unified cost-efficiency criteria.

scholarly journals mCARE, a digital health intervention package on pregnancy surveillance and care-seeking reminders from 2018 to 2027 in Bangladesh: a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. e042553
Author(s):  
Youngji Jo ◽  
Amnesty Elizabeth LeFevre ◽  
Hasmot Ali ◽  
Sucheta Mehra ◽  
Kelsey Alland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Home Visit ◽  
Digital Health ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Health Intervention ◽  
Text Messages ◽  
Care Seeking ◽  
Intervention Package ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Cost

ObjectiveWe estimated the cost-effectiveness of a digital health intervention package (mCARE) for community health workers, on pregnancy surveillance and care-seeking reminders compared with the existing paper-based status quo, from 2018 to 2027, in Bangladesh.InterventionsThe mCARE programme involved digitally enhanced pregnancy surveillance, individually targeted text messages and in-person home-visit to pregnant women for care-seeking reminders for antenatal care, child delivery and postnatal care.Study designWe developed a model to project population and service coverage increases with annual geographical expansion (from 1 million to 10 million population over 10 years) of the mCARE programme and the status quo.Major outcomesFor this modelling study, we used Lives Saved Tool to estimate the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) that would be averted by 2027, if the coverage of health interventions was increased in mCARE programme and the status quo, respectively. Economic costs were captured from a societal perspective using an ingredients approach and expressed in 2018 US dollars. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken to account for parameter uncertainties.ResultsWe estimated the mCARE programme to avert 3076 deaths by 2027 at an incremental cost of $43 million relative to the status quo, which is translated to $462 per DALY averted. The societal costs were estimated to be $115 million for mCARE programme (48% of which are programme costs, 35% user costs and 17% provider costs). With the continued implementation and geographical scaling-up, the mCARE programme improved its cost-effectiveness from $1152 to $462 per DALY averted from 5 to 10 years.ConclusionMobile phone-based pregnancy surveillance systems with individually scheduled text messages and home-visit reminder strategies can be highly cost-effective in Bangladesh. The cost-effectiveness may improve as it promotes facility-based child delivery and achieves greater programme cost efficiency with programme scale and sustainability.

scholarly journals Financial and Labor Benefits of the Individual TB Risk Assessment Model for Annual TB Screening

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s234-s234
Author(s):  
Kristin Sims ◽  
Roger Stienecker
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Health Care Personnel ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Tuberculosis Screening ◽  
Hospital System ◽  
National Tuberculosis ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost

Background: Since 1991, US tuberculosis (TB) rates have declined, including among health care personnel (HCP). Non–US born persons accounted for approximately two-thirds of cases. Serial TB testing has limitations in populations at low risk; it is expensive and labor intensive. Method: We moved a large hospital system from facility-level risk stratification to an individual risk model to guide TB screening based on Tuberculosis Screening, Testing, and Treatment of US Health Care Personnel: Recommendations from the National Tuberculosis Controllers Association and CDC, 2019. This process included individual TB risk assessment, symptom evaluation, TB testing for M. tuberculosis infection (by either IGRA or TST) for HCP without documented evidence of prior LTBI or TB disease, with an additional workup for TB disease for HCP with positive test results or symptoms compatible with TB disease. In addition, employees with specific job codes deemed high risk were required to undergo TB screening. Result: In 2018, this hospital system of ~10,000 employees screened 7,556 HCP for TB at a cost of $348,625. In 2019, the cost of the T Spot test increased from $45 to $100 and the cost of screening 5,754 HCP through October 31, 2019, was $543,057. In 2020, it is anticipated that 755 HCP will be screened, saving the hospital an estimated minimum of $467,557. The labor burden associated with employee health personnel will fall from ~629.66 hours to 62.91 hours. The labor burden associated with pulling HCPs from the bedside to be screened will be reduced from 629.66 hours to 62.91 hours as well. Conclusion: Adoption of the individual risk assessment model for TB screening based on Tuberculosis Screening, Testing, and Treatment of US Health Care Personnel: Recommendations from the National Tuberculosis Controllers Association and CDC, 2019 will greatly reduce financial and labor burdens in healthcare settings when implemented.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

Making The Polis: Social Forums and Democracy in The Global Justice Movement

2005 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donatella Porta
Keyword(s):  
Deliberative Democracy ◽  
Global Justice ◽  
Internal Communication ◽  
Global Justice Movement ◽  
Good Communication ◽  
Organizational Demands ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Movement Organizations ◽  
The Cost

The debate on deliberative democracy could open a fruitful perspective for research on social movement conceptions and practices of democracy. This article reports a pilot study of the values and norms that guide the global justice movement's organizational choices based upon focus groups and in-depth interviews with participants in various Italian social forums. Deliberative democracy, which emphasizes participation and the quality of communication, is particularly relevant for a multifaceted, heterogeneous movement that incorporates many social, generational, and ideological groups as well as movement organizations from different countries. The global justice movement—a "movement of movements" according to some activists—comprises a dense network of movement organizations, often the product of previous protest cycles. It builds upon past experiences of organizational institutionalization, but also upon reflexive criticisms of it. These networks of networks provide important resources, but also pose challenges for participation and internal communication. The activists in our study addressed these challenges by building an organizational culture that stressed diversity rather than homogeneity; subjectivity, rather than obedience to organizational demands; transparency, even at the cost of effectiveness; open confrontations oriented to consensus building over efficient decision making; and "ideological contamination" rather than dogmatism. Traditional participatory models of democracy are bridged with concerns for good communication and deliberation.

scholarly journals A simulation to identify the optimal area to survey in the early stage of invasion by Solenopsis invicta

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shumpei Hisamoto ◽  
Koichi Goka ◽  
Yoshiko Sakamoto
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Solenopsis Invicta ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Survey Area ◽  
Single Colony ◽  
The Status ◽  
Optimal Area ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Efforts to eradicate invasive alien species commonly use simulations to calculate the cost-effectiveness of surveys. Although eradication of Solenopsis invicta in the early stages of an invasion is important, few simulations are available to calculate the cost-effectiveness of surveys when a single colony has been detected. In the case of S. invicta, it is difficult to determine from the status of the detected colony whether new queens have dispersed, so it is necessary to consider dispersal as a probabilistic event and calculate its probability. We therefore first constructed a mathematical model in which we used Bayesian statistics to estimate the probability of dispersal as a function of the results of the survey. This mathematical model revealed that the efficacy of the survey and the associated cost differed greatly between cases depending on whether dispersal was or was not confirmed. Next, we developed a simulation that incorporated this mathematical model to inform the determination of the survey area when a single colony had been detected. The simulation showed how ecological parameters and geographical information could be used to identify an efficacious survey area, even in heterogeneous landscapes such as international ports where invasions occur sporadically. Finally, we used this simulation to assess the efficacy of a survey in the case of an S. invicta outbreak at the Port of Tokyo, Japan. The results suggested that the survey covered a sufficiently wide area but that it could have been designed in a more efficacious manner.

scholarly journals LEASING SERVICES MARKET IN UKRAINE: STATUS AND TRENDS

2019 ◽  
pp. 85-97
Author(s):  
O.Yu. Miroshnychenko ◽  
N.O. Mykhailova ◽  
K.O. Yaschuk
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Dynamic Structure ◽  
Financial Leasing ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Effective Functioning ◽  
Status And Trends ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Legal Entities

The status, dynamic, structure of sources of financing of leasing operations and tendencies of the development of the leasing services market in Ukraine in 2014-2018 have been considered. Today, financial leasing services are predominantly provided by financial companies, unlike in 2014, its share in the leasing market is 77.03%. The dynamics of the value and quantity of financial leasing agreements concluded by legal entities and financial companies have been considered. During the period under review, the largest value and number of financial leasing contracts were concluded by the legal entities and their value has increased in three times. The structure of the cost of financial leasing agreements by industry has been analyzed. The transport, agriculture, construction and services sectors are found to be the largest users of financial leasing services. The distribution of the value of the financial leasing contracts by its terms has been characterized and the agreements with the term of validity from 2 to 5 years are established. The structure of sources of financing of leasing operations has been investigated. It is established that their structure is dominated by equity of companies. The perspective directions of use of leasing in Ukraine have been considered. Industries such as healthcare, real estate, tourism and IT have been found to be the most promising for the leasing market. The problems that hinder the effective functioning of the leasing market in Ukraine and hinder its further development have been identified. The measures that should be taken to overcome existing problems and ensure the further development of leasing activities in Ukraine have been suggested.

scholarly journals Discrete confidence levels revealed by sequential decisions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Lisi ◽  
Gianluigi Mongillo ◽  
Andrei Gorea
Keyword(s):  
Stimulus Level ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Opt Out ◽  
Under Sampling ◽  
Subjective Confidence ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Bayesian Strategy

AbstractWhether humans are optimal decision makers is still a debated issue in the realm of perceptual decisions. Taking advantage of the direct link between an optimal decision-making and the confidence in that decision, we offer a new dual-decisions method of inferring such confidence without asking for its explicit valuation. Our method circumvents the well-known miscalibration issue with explicit confidence reports as well as the specification of the cost-function required by ‘opt-out’ or post-decision wagering methods. We show that observers’ inferred confidence in their first decision and its use in a subsequent decision (conditioned upon the correctness of the first) fall short of both the ideal Bayesian strategy, as well as of an under-sampling approximation or a modified Bayesian strategy augmented with an additional bias term to accommodate global miscalibration of confidence. The observed data are instead significantly better fitted by a model positing that observers use only few confidence levels or states, at odds with the continuous confidence function of stimulus level prescribed by a normative behavior. These findings question the validity of normative-Bayesian accounts of subjective confidence and metaperceptual judgments.

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